pakistan relations with central asian states

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THE CHANGING DYNAMICS OF PAKISTAN’S RELATIONS WITH CENTRAL ASIA
By Asma Shakir Khwaja (02/23/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The relations between Pakistan and Central Asia are an intricate blend of economic interdependence and mistrust. They share a common history and culture, and in contemporary politics face common threat perceptions and economic problems. A common strategy to deal with these problems would be significant for the economic wellbeing of the entire region. This gives Central Asia a place of prominence in Pakistan’s foreign policy, something that the local states have amply realized, as is evident in the high level exchanges taking place lately.

Pakistan is an ideal route for Central Asia’s international trade. However, this route remained disrupted for long because of turmoil in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Gwadar and Karachi seaports can provide ideal port and transit facilities for the Central Asian republics to establish their trade links with the outer world for the benefit of entire region. The Central Asian states, in particular Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, also have an immense potential for the production of hydroelectric power, which is badly needed in Pakistan.

So far, Pakistan has established Joint Economic Commissions (JECs) with all the Central Asian States. The JECs take important decisions to promote cooperation in the economic and commercial spheres and other avenues of cooperation. Under a Special Technical Assistance Program (STAP) initiated in 1992-93, Pakistan provides fully funded training facilities to Central Asian states. The program includes courses ranging from English language, banking and accounting to diplomacy. In the energy sector, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed an agreement in December 2002 for a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan, whose estimated cost is US$2 billion. The Asian Development Bank is the lead coordinating partner. It has, in addition to financial and technical assistance, played an important role in integrating efforts to realize the project.

Tajikistan has a potential to be a substantial producer of hydroelectric power. Being the closest geographically to Pakistan of the Central Asian Republics, Pakistan stands to benefit from Tajikistan’s hydroelectric potential. An intergovernmental agreement to that effect has already been signed. Pakistan has also signed an agreement to import electricity from Kyrgyzstan through Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Terrain and weather conditions are a clear impediment for this project, yet both states appear determined to pursue it.

The Economic Cooperation Organization comprising Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan provides another common platform to generate economic activity in the region. As Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has recently emphasized, the organization needs to be used in result-oriented policies instead of mere lip service. ECO can be an effective organization if the ECO Trade Agreement, Transit Transport Agreement and the Trade and Development Bank are operationalized swiftly.

IMPLICATIONS: Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan have a long history of ties, being linked by the historic Silk Road. On January 17, 2005, Kyrgyzstan’s President Askar Akaev visited Pakistan on the invitation of President General Pervez Musharraf. It was his third visit, the earlier being in 1994 and 1995, a decade ago. Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan are signatories to the Quadrilateral Agreement along with China and Kazakhstan, effective since May 2004, which aims at promoting regional trade through Pakistan’s Karakoram Highway and onward road links through China to Kazakhstan. Both countries are keen to increase trade and economic relations, a fact that President Akaev stressed during the visit.

Cooperation in the fields of education and culture is an important aspect of Pakistan-Kyrgyz relations. Kyrgyz students have been pursing studies in Pakistani educational institutions in various fields such as engineering, business administration, information technology and the English language. Kyrgyz civil servants also attend training programs in Pakistan. Conversely, over 350 Pakistani students are currently pursuing studies, mainly in medical colleges, in the Kyrgyz Republic. The expansion of bilateral ties are set to further increase with the reopening of the historic Silk Road, allowing transportation between Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan via China.

Pakistan’s relations with the Central Asian Republics have progressed in the past few years, inspiring hope for brighter prospects ahead. The completion of the Gwadar Port is a milestone in this context. When it comes online alongside Karachi shortly, it will provide the shortest access to the Sea for large parts of Central Asia. Pakistan is also giving priority to road and rail links and related facilities for more effective and mutually beneficial access to Central Asia. Air services to Tashkent and Almaty have already been resumed. Similar services to other parts of the region are under active consideration. This process of closer ties is set to receive a significant boost from the ongoing improvement of the political and economic situation in Afghanistan.

The laying of railway tracks from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan is an important part of this program. Pakistan’s Ministry of Railways has completed a feasibility study for a Chaman-Kandahar rail project. Its report will be discussed at the next meeting of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Economic Commission, which will be held in Islamabad shortly.

The quadrilateral agreement is also gradually being implemented, with a first caravan from Pakistan using this route last year. The completion of Murghab-Kulma road from Tajikistan to China linking to the Karakoram highway to Pakistan is also a significant development. Once operationalized, it will boost the transit trade between Pakistan and the Central Asia.

Pakistan has no gas needs of its own at this moment although this may become a future issue, but it can facilitate the export of Central Asian oil and gas to South Asia, Southeast Asia and beyond. The oil and gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and onward to India would indeed be a sound investment in the future of the region.

CONCLUSIONS: The exchange of high-level visits has been an important aspect of relations between Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics. These have contributed to better understanding and closer cooperation, and the momentum in these visits is continuously growing. In the meantime, peace and stability in Afghanistan remains a sine qua non for the developing relations. Pakistan can contribute, albeit modestly, in construction and rehabilitation of Afghanistan, especially in housing, trade, transportation and infrastructure sectors. Radical Islam has destabilized the societies of both Pakistan and Central Asia, and further mutual cooperation is required in dealing with this problem. But beyond security concerns, mutual economic stakes are likely to play a more pivotal role in mutually beneficial relations in the future. Economic interests have always been and will continue to be the foundation for the relations between Pakistan and Central Asian states.

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