Political Scenario after elections ...

[Mystery Boy]

In my opinion Benezir is day-dreaming for a DEAL with President Musharaf and the actual DEAL has been done with Miyan Nawaz Shareef as per the partnership in next Government. Musharaf will be all accept with his GOOd and bads ...
What do u guys think ???

[Proud Pharmacist]

I don't think that Mian Nawaz Sharif would share partnership with Musharraf in the next government.

From the current scenario of our politics, it can be predicted that there will be two major political powers in the coming elections. One will be the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) and the other will be Musharraf's Party, i.e. a coalition between PML-Q, PPP and MQM.

It is also a fact that it will not be easy for PPP and PML-Q to have seat adjustments in the elections, but they will have to unite in order to prolong Gen. Musharraf's regime, even on the wish of USA.

But it is obvious that the credibity of all the parties in Musharraf's League, i.e. the present ruling party, PML-Q, Pakistan Peoples Party and MQM, is under lots of question marks. And the whole scenario is supporting Nawaz Sharif, PML-N and in fact APDM.

Hence the APDM can be a considerable threat for Gen. Musharraf in the upcoming elections.

[Mystery Boy]

Is APDM a true representative for a fair Democracy ???

[Proud Pharmacist]

Well there are so many political parties belonging to all the provinces of Pakistan, so on this large scale, I think the people are mostly for the right purpose, because on such large scale the individual interests are difficult to be achieved by all the people individually.

So in my opinion, whoever in this Alliance will have the personal interests, will leave it and search his own way, as we have seen the splitting up of ARD. I that case, Benazir wanted to shake hand with Musharraf, so her party gave up the Charter of Democracy and caused ARD to be broken.

[Deviant]

A deal with Nawaz Sharif? No way, I think. While the sonorities of power can woo beasts and brutes, a dead horse is hardly worth tying your stakes to.

[sayed khan]

i think musharf is doin well n our prime minister as well.

[Waqar Abro]

Efforts on the part of Pakistan’s military ruler General Perviz Musharraf for his re-election as President of the country in uniform for another term of five years have been facing serious setbacks. Consequently, once again future of democracy in the country is once again hanging in balance because the General if failed to ensure enough votes of the electoral collage would leave with no other option but to impose martial law or declare emergency in the country. In this regard, next six to eight weeks are crucially important in the political arena as decision about future of democracy is on the cards.

Musharraf is currently holding offices of the President and the Chief of Army Staff in the country by dent of relaxation bestowed upon him through 17th amendment in the constitution of 1973. However, period of constitutional respite being enjoyed by Musharraf would be completed at the end of his five years presidential term on Dec. 31, this year. Under the constitutional provisions next election for President of the country must take place 30 days before expiry of the running presidential term. It means that next presidential election in the country must take place in three months time by the end of November 2007. But in the presence of serious constitutional lacunas in the way of his re-election in uniform, Musharraf is perhaps confronting the most serious predicament in his last eight years in power since Oct. 12, 1999.

In prevailing political scenario of the country major setback being received by the General is from the hands of the party he created in the aftermath of October 12, military takeover. Pakistan Muslim League (Q) created by the military regime with the inclusion of several political groups, which is currently the ruling party, is also drifting away when it comes to Musharraf’s re-election in uniform.

President Musharraf initiated his election campaign early last week with pomp and show from Punjab by meeting legislators of all the 35 districts of the province belonging to the ruling party. Punjab having the lion’s share of 148 seats in the house of 342 in the national assembly besides having largest provincial assembly of 374 members was a right choice to set sails of his campaign. But unfortunately it was stuck by a storm just after leaving the port as a good number of elected representatives from the ruling party during their meetings with the President openly refused to support his re-election in uniform.

Legal aids of the President including former law ministers Sharif ud Din Pirzada and S.M Zafar alongwith Attorney General Justice (Retd) Mohammad Qayyum Malik have the considered opinion that re-election of Gen. Musharraf in uniform is not an important issue as the superior judiciary has already allowed it in the past. Therefore, in the presence of precedence Supreme Court will approve it again. Whereas, eminent constitutional lawyers including Aitazaz Ahsan, Hamid Khan, Justice (Retd) Tariq Mehmood and many others are of the opinion that decisions taken by the court under military pressure in the past possess no legal validity. Moreover, the apex court in the past in three times more cases had given decisions against military rule in the country.

After being uncertain about required support to do away the constitutional anomalies from the parliament and also the Supreme Court not ready any more to adhere to military pressure, General Musharraf is definitely in trouble waters for his re-election in uniform or otherwise. Further, among opposition political parties moderates like Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) having over 150 votes of the electoral collage are ready to give the General safe passage provided if he puts off his uniform. While hardliners included in All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) with nearly 300 votes are even not ready to give him a chance for re-election in any case. And they have planned to disturb the electoral collage if Musharraf decided to make an attempt for re-election.

At present Musharraf is facing different constitutional prohibitions and lacunas in the way of his re-election. Top of the list is that Constitution of Pakistan 1973 does not allow any government servant to contest election for any public office at least two years after his retirement or resignation from service. His present presidential term has been given special constitutional cover through 17th amendment in the constitution, which will expire on Nov. 30, this year.

Then, under the constitution, a parliament is not permitted to vote in more than one presidential election. But in Musharraf’s case his presidential term will expire a month prior to the term of the national and provincial assemblies and it demands special constitutional arrangement for the parliament to vote twice in presidential election. The other option is special extension in the term of the president and postponement of presidential election till next parliament assembles after the general elections in the country. In either case highly adverse opposition and cautious superior judiciary would definitely create problems in granting any sort of relaxation.

Under the prevailing scenario presidential election has become critical for democracy in the country, as many cautious political figures and analysts consider it the decision that could make or break its future in Pakistan. In this connection, recent statements of close aids of Gen. Musharraf and federal minister, Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed and leader of the opposition in the national assembly, Moulana Fazal Ur Rehman are highly sensitive in the light of current political scenario. Both of them have suggested their political fraternity to be cautious while taking any decision on re-election of President Musharraf as it could lead the nation to any untoward situation including declaration of emergency or imposition of martial law.

Whereas top opposition leaders like Nawaz Sharif, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, Imran Khan, Asfandyar Wali and others consider the situation volatile but beyond General’s control and they look at threats of imposition of martial law in the country as mere feelers by the establishment. At the same time ruling party PML (Q) head Ch. Shujaat Hussain as well as the Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz have been openly denying any possibility of imposition of martial law or declaration of emergency in the country.

In view of the existing political scenario, Musharraf is fast approaching a dead end with less possibilities of any political or judicial solution to bail him out. With no other option left for him to survive being a trained commando with adventurous nature of fighting till the end, Musharraf could easily decide in favor of any of the two options either imposition of martial law or declaration of emergency. In this regard, reports in national media pinpoint next five weeks till the end of September as critical period with decision about future of democracy in the country is on the cards within the speculated time.

[sadam gurmani]

i don't think so because if president Musharaf and mian nawaz sharif deal has been done then why our government is so desperate on the arrival of mian nawaz sharif ?and one thing more nawaz sharif is not keeping as much popularity in pak as benazir thats why musharaf needs benezir more than nawaz....

[touseef4pk]

Eventually, deal drama with PPP has come to end and now the impending political scenario would become very interesting and visible as Mushraf has implicated MMA to be another choice for deal. I guess same story is going to repeat, the collation of MMA and PML (Q).

[Mystery Boy]

Now this is the time which i kept in view posting this topic.
Deal with Benezir is no more a deal. Politics is all about tactics and games, fame graph of benezir has no more existance after this deal drama. No deal was to be done, it was just a step towards creating a political front-line between political party. Cards played by Benezir was just a waste.
Tell me One thing why Supreme Court made such a quick decision after having only two hearings of Nawaz shareef case ... ???
Was it to make him to activate again for a new term of corruption, attacks on courts ... & so on