Useful posts in an interesting topic by you people!
Kudos for all..

To start with, allow me to say first that the "New Afghan Policy" promulgated by the Obama administration cries out loud to a simple admission of "Collateral Failure" - a shame for such a sophisticated and Preponderance World Power as i thought Soviet Union was the only Power who was destined to be humiliated.
Such a Wonderland Afghanistan is, to have dragged two Supreme Powers of the world in almost less a decade and forced them to "Get Lost"!

Stakeholders in the region (Pakistan, China, Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan Turkmenistan and India), the academic researchers (students of international Studies) along with the Super Power and rest of the world are not oblivious of a few facts:
1) Who are Taliban?
2) What did US and her allies failed to anticipate?
3) What the allies (lead by US) want?
4) What does Taliban want?
so it would be impertinent to go through the history pages.

substantially, US has to let go the arena as soon as possible - more attributed to her dwindling economy and even more to a norm attributed to her, to let the "affected region" being "affected more" (Afghan War), and say "Watch me Go"

-- Conference held, made public, message of reconciliation floated to the top Taliban Leadership, allies taken into confidence, stakeholders of the region assured assistance in the aftermath of the "Friendship shake hand" with Taliban, everything sounds good so far.

-- But a few crucial broken links still need to be amended, viz:
1) Will the Taliban Shake hands on "no more foes we are stance" by US?
2) After such a prolong devastating blow to Taliban, Would they bow their heads down in favour to get a "Shared" part in the Karzai administration?
and above all
3) They fought and died to Protect Osama, in this context "abandoning Osama" on US's will, is the least practical outcome one can predict.

These are not my sure-short predictions because time changes, and change is permanent and ,permanent stances do bring change - in this case i hope, change brings harmony to Pakistan.

These are really complicated questions to answer.Right now talibans are seeing themselves as victors so we cant predict their stance on national gov.Situation will become clear in the next 5 or 6 months.At the moment,we cant predict any thing about the future of afghanistan.
following article by Shahid Javed Burki is also very helpful.

http://www.cssforum.com.pk/general/n...tml#post168291

.....but we have to see the other side of this afghan conflict as well.
the following article n its contents also need some attention

It is within us

By Kamran Shafi

Tuesday, 09 Feb, 2010 | 07:11 AM PST |


THERE has been a veritable raft of statements from the chief of army staff in the very recent past on ‘strategic depth’ for Pakistan in Afghanistan.

Variously: “we want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but do not want to control it”; “if Afghanistan is peaceful, stable and friendly, we have our strategic depth because our western border is secure”; and “our strategic paradigm needs to be fully realised”. Inexplicably he also said that ‘it would be a cause of worry for Pakistan if Afghanistan’s projected army developed the potential to take on Pakistan’.

The Afghan army’s ‘projected’ development (woefully inadequate five years after it started, mark) and whether that development can be a danger to Pakistan with its half-a-million strong army and a powerful air force when Afghanistan has no air force at all at the present time, to say nothing of our bomb, we shall come to later. Let us for the moment look at ‘strategic depth’.

Now then, whilst matters as critical as strategic depth, especially in other, foreign countries, are best discussed in their minutiae in closed confabulations of elected political leaders, diplomats and military experts, let us look at the many hurdles in the way of the general’s wishes coming true.

While the Afghans can heave a sigh of relief that Pakistan will not take over their country to gain strategic depth, how can Afghanistan ever become peaceful, and stable, and friendly towards Pakistan when the likes of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and the Haqqani father-son team, well known as friends of our very own security establishment, run around that country spreading havoc from Ghazni to Kunar to Paktia?

How can Afghanistan become friendly towards Pakistan when there is continuing ambivalence in wholeheartedly targeting the Taliban leadership, both Afghan and Pakistani, which as we well know are closely allied? How possibly can Afghanistan call Pakistan a friend when senior Pakistani army officers refer to these people, its enemies, as ‘assets’?

On another tack, how can the ultimate leaders of groups that also attack innocent Pakistanis in Peshawar and Rawalpindi, Lahore and Karachi be the strategic assets of our brass hats?

How can Afghanistan consider Pakistan a friend when the Quetta shura of the Afghan Taliban which has now been outed by no less a personage than the minister of defence, is not even touched let alone degraded to an extent that it will cease being a threat to Afghanistan? When its leaders openly defy government authority and do as they will in Balochistan, extending their murderous tentacles into Iran too?

Unless, of course, it is still the case that our great strategists feel that the Taliban, both the Pakistan and Afghan variety, are the only ones who can ensure a peaceful, stable and friendly Afghanistan. If so, they have very bad memories, for they do not have to look very far back into Afghanistan’s sorry history to see how badly this, for want of a better word, scheme, failed so very miserably the last time around, with the Afghan people facing untold tribulations at the hands of a backward and medieval regime.

How possibly can the Afghans see Pakistan as a friend when they see that their tormentors and the Pakistani security establishment are still friends? No sirs, no, Afghanistan will never consider Pakistan a friend unless those who have made mindless statements about the Taliban being assets retract those statements in totality and without reservation. And far more than that take stringent action against all of the terrorists without exception.

As for the Afghan national security forces, the army and police, developing to the point that they can ‘take on’ Pakistan, those two forces are slated to rise to 171,600 men for the army and 134,000 for the police by the year 2011.

Both the projected numbers fly in the face of the views of independent observers and analysts trained to make such projections who say unreservedly that let alone the non-availability of suitable manpower, the mere costs of maintaining such numbers are way above the capacity of the Afghan government. Empirical evidence also shows that fully 40 per cent of present recruits came out positive when tested for drugs. So much for the Afghan forces ever being able to ‘take on’ Pakistan.

As to our strategic paradigm(s) being realised by other people, I can only say that whingeing will get us nowhere because no one owes us anything at all. We Pakistanis are the only ones who can, and should, realise what those paradigms are, and how we can best achieve them. We have to understand that the best strategic depth is that which comes from within our own country, from within ourselves. That the best strategic depth is that which comes from within our own people.

All of us have to understand that instead of looking beyond our borders, a literate, healthy and happy populace that lives in peace and tranquillity is the best strategic depth any country can possibly have. This, of course, cannot be, given the state of the country as it is today with completely skewed national imperatives, and a state whose writ is eroding by the day.

For, how can Pakistan educate its children in halfway decent schools; or give its people halfway decent healthcare and housing when only three per cent of the budget goes to the social sector? How can the people feel at peace when the mainstream press carries photographs of private, mark, anti-aircraft guns deployed in a cotton field in Sindh?

Instead of looking towards others it is time we sat up and took notice of the dire situation we are in. And jolly well did something about it.

There is an easy solution of Afghan problem but the USA will not be agree on it.
The solution is that give the southern Afghanistan to the Taliban, and Northern Afghanistan to the opponants of Taliban. Let both the parties solve their disputes themselves !

very ncie and interesting topic is under discussion here.. and both of u hav gave very nice and brilliant opinion abt Afghanistan scenario.

well we all knw that afghanistan problem is not a piece of cake. generations of generations hav seen wars and it seems as if they are born to fight and resist the intruders, which is right. well coming to the point, as for US exit strategy it is clear and thy hav announced that they will not entirely exit but leave some of their troops to train the local police or army.. US would never want to leave any region without having a hold or long term impact.. it would surely set a puppet govt. negotiations from the tribes wud naturally result in a pact and ofcourse this would be controlled by the US through its people involved in govt. affairs.. plus implications for pakistan would be serious india is made strengthened in afghanistan against pakistan, it has already set up17 consulates which is more than enough for establishing a diplomatic relation.the Swat incident had shown the clear signs of hindus being involved in the terror activities in pakistan under the name of taliban, where did they come from? let me qoute here that parallel to the political interests, US has religious interests as well which we often surpass..islamic card was being played and we wereindulged in the war, and after USSR islam is the only enemyof the US and pakistan being the only islamic nuclear state..india on the other hand would never like to leave pakistan relaxed from external threat,from its eastern and western sides.. in this scenario i think it is the best time to make good and strenghtened relations with China, Iran, Russia and CARs. we should utilize our strategic location in our own interests. unless peace is restored we will face hurdles..i was thinking that when talibans were governing afghanistan and US was sitting inside home, we were not facing suiced bombings and terrorism. to destabilize afghanistan meant to destabilize pakistan this is why they have used term 'AF-PAK' to keep both countries on the same grounds using similar policy options..the differnece is in afghanistan they are committing overt actions while in pakistan they are operating covertly. the solution is the exit of US not only from afghanistan but from pakistan as well..their exit from afghanisgtan has not ensured us the elimination of drone attacks..

any suggestions would be welcome..

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Jinnah