Pakistan’s turbulent security situation

[Jani Abro]

A H Raja


Pakistan’s tribal belt in the northwest and interior Baluchistan in the south are turbulent for the last many years where the security forces and the miscreants are spilling blood of each other. Whereas Baluchistan has suffered from bouts of turmoil in the past; it is for the first time that FATA is up in flames. The army entered into South Waziristan Agency in 2002 for the first time to deal with terrorists of foreign origins on the intelligence provided by FBI. It used selective but at times excessive force to combat the militants and managed to nab as well as flush out militants and their harbourers by early 2005. However, once it expanded its operations into North Waziristan , it found the going exceptionally tough and is still battling with the militants. The flames of terrorism rather than getting smothered spread to Bajaur, Kurram, Aurakzai, Mohmand and parts of Khyber Agencies as well. Besides human and material losses, large-scale displacement of people also took place causing immense hardships to the people.
The army had to be employed in Baluchistan when Nawab Bugti took up a defiant stance and decided to adopt a confrontationist approach. The effects of insurgency in Dera Bugti, Sui, Kahan and Kohlu contaminated other parts of Baluchistan including Quetta . Local nationalist political parties ganged up to lend support to the dissident Sardars of Bugti, Marri and Mengal tribes. Cases of sabotage and subversion and duels between the forces and miscreants became a daily routine. ‘Baluchistan Liberation Alliance’ (BLA) was created in 1980s as a pro-Moscow underground organisation. In 2006, it committed 403 terror acts in Baluchistan killing 277 civilians. It was banned in April 2006 but it continued to indulge in anti-state activities. During the first half of 2007, 58 bomb blasts, 82 rocket attacks, 31 attacks on gas pipelines, 14 on railway tracks, 11 on electric transmissions were carried out. Despite the death of Nawab Bugti who was the chief source of inspiration behind the insurgency, followed by death of his successor Balach Marri heading BLA having 80 murder cases on him, internment of Sardar Akhtar Mengal, demolition of 50 out of 53 Farari camps run by BLA, and supply routes from Afghanistan and India brought under surveillance, sabotage activities are still continuing, although on a much limited scale.
At the moment, 120,000 paramilitary forces and army troops are entangled in the north-western tribal belt with little hope of extrication in the near future. About 15000 troops are committed in Swat and Shangla since October last to fight the Fazlullah led militants. Another Corps size force down south is providing back up support to the paramilitary forces in Baluchistan . All these are unproductive energy sapping exercises and at the cost of operational preparedness. In 1971, our forces in former East Pakistan kept chasing the Bengali rebels for nine months and when India in league with Soviet Union mounted a full-fledged offensive in November they were completely mentally and physically exhausted.
While the Balochis and Pashtuns are harbouring ill feelings against the army and the Punjabis, the people of interior Sindh have their own set of grievances particularly after the tragic killing of Ms Bhutto. The army and rangers are patrolling in major towns of Sindh to keep the volatile situation under control. In case the election results are not to the liking of the PPP, the situation in Sindh could spin out of control. Karachi otherwise is a festering volcano. Punjab too stand divided between two antagonist parties led by Nawaz and Ch brothers. The lawyers as well as Jamaat-i-Islami, Tehrik-i-Insaf and smaller regional parties have boycotted elections on the plea that these would be rigged. The journalists, members of civil society and human rights activists have joined hands with lawyers to press their demands for the restoration of deposed judges and for the rule of law. The president has become an object of aversion for a large segment of society and they want his ouster. Secular-Islamists divide has sharpened with little scope for reconciliation between the two. Kurram agency is restive because of sectarian clashes where again the army is deployed. Suicide bombers are targeting military and other high profile targets at will even in most secured areas and drawing blood.
Externally, our western border is in a state of flux with unfriendly Afghanistan that has colluded with India . On one hand India has engaged Pakistan in fruitless peace talks and lulled our senses, on the other it is busy hatching conspiracies to destabilise it. Its intelligence agency RAW in collusion with Afghanistan’s RAM are not only training the saboteurs and suicide bombers but also providing funds, arms, explosives and wireless sets to the anti-social elements in Baluchistan, Fata and Swat. These clandestine activities are taking place with the tacit understanding of US/Nato military command. Despite Pakistan paying a heavy price to fight the US war on terror; it is being accused by USA and Afghanistan of not doing enough to contain cross border terrorism into Afghanistan and in liquidating terrorism in Fata. It is also being accused that its security system is not good enough to prevent its nuclear assets falling into wrong hands. Doomsday scenario of Pakistan breaking up into quasi states is also floated by US think tanks off and on.
The inundation of Indo-US collusion when viewed in context with Indo-Israeli alignment have impinged upon the interests of Pakistan, the ramifications of which will have drastic impact on Pakistan’s security. USA will keep Pakistan on board as a tactical partner as long as it is relevant. The day it becomes irrelevant, it will be unceremoniously dumped. As such, it is unlikely that America will take any step both during peace and war favouring Pakistan at the cost of annoying India . Any facilitation on Kashmir will be entirely on Indian terms.
The US did not come to our rescue in 1971 when India was the strategic partner of USSR and we had played a crucial role in bringing a rapprochement between USA-China. Russia being another strategic ally of India will remain inclined towards her. In its bid to regain a foothold in Afghanistan , Russia may also be helping the ruling Northern Alliance elements in anti-Pakistan activities. This is evident from Russian brand weapons captured from the miscreants operating in two trouble spots.
EU is also favourably disposed towards India . China being our close friend has her own compulsions. Having adopted a wholly commercial approach, it will not enter into any defence agreement to fight our war particularly after it has removed differences with India . The impotence of the Muslim world is well known. It can at best provide limited material, moral and diplomatic support, which will be of little value. Iran is itself under immense pressure of getting isolated and will not like to upset India with which it has close cooperation in numerous fields. Sensing the jingoism of USA and Israel against Iran ’s nuclear program, we should pray that our backyard may not turn volatile. In the recent past, two sovereign states have been trampled and the world has accepted the illegal occupations without raising an eye brow. Some say that after Iran , Pakistan may be in the firing line because of its nuclear capability and housing large number of extremist elements.
In case such a scenario takes practical shape sometime in the future, do we have contingency plans to meet this kind of a threat? We have already gone through a very painful experience in 1971 when Indian army operated 59 training camps along our eastern front to train the rebels. Neither USA nor UN took any notice of it. None came to our rescue when Indian forces aided by USSR vivisected Pakistan . The projected scenario may not be altogether hypothetical when seen in the context of Indo-US strategic goals in Afro-Asian region and India still seeing Pakistan as the only stumbling block in her way to achieve her hegemonic ambitions. It should be clear that India will harm us whenever any opportunity comes its way.
The coming days are full of challenges and pitfalls. Pakistan will have to rely on its own capabilities to face the emerging dangers. We will have to bear our burden ourselves and should not expect anyone else to come to our rescue.
Our foreign policy needs a re-appraisal to tackle the fast changing geopolitical realities in the region. Without being US centric, we should work towards guarding our national interests and at the same time avoid ruffling Bush’s feathers. New avenues, which promise mutually beneficial relationship and cooperation, should be explored. Dialogue with India must now focus on the solution of contentious issues including Kashmir and Siachen. As long as Karzai remains a puppet in US and Northern Alliance hands, we should not expect anything good from that side. Still, efforts should be made to remove the misperceptions of the ruling cabal with the help of other Muslim countries and in case we succeed in taking them in confidence, try and break the Indo-Afghan alignment. While endearing to forge long-term strategic relationship with China and Iran , we should upgrade our defensive capability and also take steps to keep our nuclear deterrence potent. This becomes essential in the backdrop of India ’s plan to acquire anti-ballistic missiles capability by the year 2010.
Internally, the bottlenecks that obstruct national integration must be identified for removal and full-scale reconciliation among the divides that keep us polarised should be achieved. The guns of hate and antagonism must point towards our common enemy rather than towards own people. Our publicity department should come out of its defensive and reactive mode and work upon a proper strategy to effectively counter the Indo-Afghan-western propaganda campaign. Presently it is entirely geared towards scoring points against the Islamists, militants and opponents of the regime. We need to revive our warrior spirit without which nations die.


—The writer is a retired Brig. and author of books, 'Muhammad Bin Qasim to Gen Pervez Musharraf’ and ‘Roots of 1971 Tragedy’.