Thanks to the Russians, for a long-term threat to immediate threat to Iran

[lmno250]

Thanks to the Russians, for a long-term threat to immediate threat to Iran.
Netanyahu went to Moscow to deliver this intelligence to the Russians, the only surprise would have been the degree to which the Israelis had penetrated the program, not that the Russians were there. Netanyahu gave Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The New York Times published an article reporting that staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear oversight group, had produced an unreleased report saying that Iran was much more advanced in its nuclear program than the IAEA had thought previously.Iran now has all the data needed to design a nuclear weapon. The New York Times article added that U.S. intelligence was re-examining the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of 2007, which had stated that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.

The second leak occurred in the British paper The Sunday Times, which reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s highly publicized secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It is known that two years ago the US managed to penetrate Iranian computer systems. There is a broad consensus that Iran does intend to acquire at least the "breakout" capability to build a weapon. The existence of Natanz was a secret until it was revealed by an exiled Iranian opposition group in 2002.

On October 21, 2003, as part of a deal brokered by Britain, France, and Germany, Iran finally yielded to intense international pressure and agreed to sign the Additional Protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) short-notice access to its nuclear facilities. Tehran also consented to provide an account of all its nuclear-related activities and to suspend its highly controversial uranium enrichment program .

March 2007, Iran informed the IAEA that it felt it no longer believed it needed to comply with a 2003 agreement with the IAEA to provide design information for any nuclear facilities “as soon as the decision to construct, or to authorize construction, of such a facility has been taken, whichever is earlier.” A legal adviser for the IAEA ruled that agreements could be "changed by agreement between” Iran and the IAEA, but not unilaterally, and thus Iran's announcement was not in compliance with its international obligations.

USA and Israel moving toward a decisive moment with Iran. situation is the direct responsibility of Russian nuclear expertise. Whether this expertise came from former employees of the Russian nuclear establishment now looking for work, Russian officials assigned to Iran or unemployed scientists sent to Iran by the Russians is immaterial. The Israelis — and the Obama administration — must hold the Russians responsible for the current state of Iran’s weapons program, and by extension, Moscow bears responsibility for any actions that Israel or the United States might take to solve the problem .

The most that can be said is that the Americans and Israelis are preparing the public for war. Polls now indicate that more than 60 percent of the U.S. public now favors military action against Iran. From a political point of view, it has become easier for U.S. President Barack Obama to act than to not act. This, too, is being transmitted to the Iranians and Russians.

Obama is unlikely to act because he is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances for war. But the leaks this weekend have strikingly limited the options and timelines of the United States and Israel. They also have put the spotlight on Obama at a time when he already is struggling with health care and Afghanistan. History is rarely considerate of presidential plans, and in this case, the leaks have started to force Obama’s hand.

After Iran's secret underground uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz was discovered in 2002 -- which now has 5,000 centrifuge machines, and a stockpile of 1,400 kilograms of low enriched uranium -- US intelligence expected Iran would try again to build another secret facility.

So the agencies started looking and, several years ago, hit pay dirt, literally: It pinpointed a second site hidden inside a mountain near Qom, a Shi'ite holy city and a religious nerve center of the Iranian regime, according to U.S. officials.

Tehran made the disclosure because it learned the site had been discovered.The Iranians' disclosure triggered a fast-moving chain of events, leading to a series of secret intelligence briefings about the enrichment site last week by U.S. officials to Russian and Chinese leaders in New York, the IAEA in Vienna and congressional leaders in Washington
They found it near the city of Qom, "heavily protected and heavily disguised." this site is underground, in a mountain, on a military base near Qom, about 100 miles southwest of Tehran.

Iranians realize that they are facing war and that the Russians realize that they are facing a massive crisis in their relations with the West. If that happens, then the Russians might pull their scientists and engineers, join in the sanctions and force the Iranians to abandon their program.

discussed in detail among the P-5+1 prior to and during the Geneva meetings, regardless of how long they have been known by Western intelligence — were made for two reasons. The first was to tell the Iranians that the nuclear situation is now about to get out of hand, and that attempting to manage the negotiations through endless delays will fail because the United Nations is aware of just how far Tehran has come with its weapons program. The second was to tell Moscow that the issue is no longer whether the Russians will cooperate on sanctions, but the consequence to Russia’s relations with the the United States and at least the United Kingdom, France and, most important, possibly Germany. If these leaks are true,Russia did not left any other option left to do what UN ,USA,are looking from him.

The second possibility is that the Russians will continue to play the spoiler on sanctions and will insist that they are not giving support to the Iranians. This leaves the military option, which would mean broad-based action, primarily by the United States, against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Any military operation would involve keeping the Strait of Hormuz clear, meaning naval action, and we now know that there are more nuclear facilities than previously discussed. So while the war for the most part would be confined to the air and sea, it would be extensive nonetheless.

An attack using both U.S. aircraft and missiles is the most likely scenario if diplomacy and economic sanctions fail, the United States was to decide upon military action [there would be] a combination of missile strikes using sea- and air-launched cruise missiles, and air strikes would probably be the preferred option.

U.S. or Israeli forces could destroy all of Iran's main nuclear facilities within a matter of hours: "There are about half a dozen major nuclear facilities in Iran. They have the uranium facility at Isfahan, the uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, the plutonium production facility at Arak, possibly a nuclear weapons assembly facility at Parchin. There may be a dozen, or a dozen and a half other smaller facilities. All of these facilities are vulnerable to air strikes. Stealth bombers and other [U.S.] bombers staging from Diego Garcia [an island in the Indian Ocean] would basically be able to destroy all of these within a few hours of the air strikes beginning.

Iran will have to respond to the charge – and will come under immediate pressure to admit IAEA inspectors. It clearly knew this revelation was coming and sought to pre-empt it by telling the IAEA earlier this week that it did have a second "pilot" plant. But news of that will do nothing to correct the impression that it has been caught cheating again.IAEA inspectors are going to inspect the Iranian nuclear facilities 25th of October.

[N.Oad]

Very true. Iranian nuclear program is confirmly backed by Russians intelligence simply to get revenge that had heppned with them in 1979 in alliance with Pakistan.

[Asif Yousufzai]

thanks for sharing such a useful thread..........

will you pls share the source of the post????


thanks....

[lmno250]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091...ng_iran_crisis

http://redcounty.com/possible-leaks-...ulnerabilities.
Iran + Russia = Bomb - Israel Forum.