The top brass and the untenable political logjam

[niazikhan2]

JCSC press release says much between the lines; meetings involving civilians, khakis and Americans discuss unsustainable uncertainty; will Zardari be allowed to appoint his own ISI chief in March and to announce new Army chief in June?
By Shaheen Sehbai

WASHINGTON: A series of back-to-back meetings of the military high command, major players of the civil and khaki establishment topped up with an exclusive session of the Army high-ups with the Americans, have all highlighted the almost unsustainable uncertainty created by the current political milieu in Pakistan.

Some of the military meetings have even publicly admitted that the domestic situation was discussed in detail and, almost like the GHQ response to the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the press release issued after the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee meeting carried comments which were of immense importance and possible implications.

The JCSC release said: “The committee deliberated in detail complex internal security situation... It expressed satisfaction on the state of preparedness of the armed forces of Pakistan and had a deliberate discussion on various measures for effectively dealing with the assessed security challenges confronting the country.” (Italics added)

Whatever the official press releases say, no one can deny that the main underlying subject of concern in all these meetings was the political situation and the state of confrontation between institutions which a beleaguered president has created by refusing to present himself before the law, by politicising his personal corruption and by trying to divide the country on ethnic and regional lines, all to save himself from accountability. This is now being treated as a major security challenge to the country.

The situation is getting unbearable because the petty politics of personal preservation, using the highest and the lowest offices of the state, has thrown the country’s security and military establishment into confusion which can create havoc given the massive internal threats and external challenges.

The greatest concern is that our fighters on the diplomatic and military battle fronts are not getting the internal political cohesion and strength which is desperately needed to face domestic terrorists and external pressures to do more, although this terminology may not be in use but whatever language is used carries the same message.

The long sessions of military generals, some with their own boys and some with civilians present, have probably chalked out their strategy if this political fog does not clear soon. When the JCSC officially states that a “deliberate discussion on various measures” was held, it says between the lines that various scenarios have been discussed and what to do has been decided.

Probably the broad outlines of the decisions have also been conveyed to the American decision makers as they too are more than worried about the non-serious attitude of top elected leaders when the country needed mature thinking, concerted efforts and coordination, instead of irresponsible jockeying for power and playing to the galleries.

The prolonging situation is causing hysteria in some circles because critical deadlines are approaching for major decisions yet the message being sent by the ruling PPP is that they will keep playing games, to gain as much time as they can, until either they are forced out of power or they consolidate their grip on key institutions.

The complex situation, not mentioned in the military press releases but obviously referred to between the lines, can be summarised as:

- What will happen if the Supreme Court’s judgments are not implemented by the Executive branch.

- What will happen if the government continues to defy the Supreme Court on appointment of new judges and other matters.

- What will the GHQ do if the Supreme Court asks for Army help under Article 190 of the Constitution.

- Will the mobilisation of Sindhi forces by the PPP, or the so-called Sindh card, be a serious threat to the federation, if Zardari forces it upon the nation.

- What will the PML-N and other political forces do as the PPP is not serious in removing the 17th Amendment and is playing for time.

- Should this non-serious and corruption-tainted leadership of the PPP be allowed to insult the intelligence of the nation by appointing and promoting leaders accused of taking bribes.

- Should this leadership be permitted to appoint its own ISI chief in March when the current incumbent is to retire, may be a personal corrupt crony of the president.

- Should the situation be allowed to drag on, until say June, when the politically shrewd Zardari makes a premature announcement to replace the current Army chief, retiring in November, in an effort to turn him into a lame-duck and create a rift within the Army.

- What happens in Karachi if the PPP leadership tries to play games with the MQM and takes over the main power base of the party by appointing its own administrators and then delaying the local bodies elections or rigging them.

- Who looks after the security situation when top leadership has no credibility and is involved in court cases, seeking bails and providing sureties.

- Who would mobilise the nation to take a tough and independent stand against the US policy in Afghanistan, now that a surge is imminent and drone attacks have, and will, increase in ferocity and numbers.

- Is Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani ready to go down with his president, should the courts and justice system catches up with him. What then?

- Is Mian Nawaz Sharif or the PML-N ready to let the country go down just to protect some corrupt politicians who have been elected by sheer stroke of luck, chance, and trickery, in the name of saving the democratic set up.

- Is there a serious threat to democracy if a political leader is caught stealing and courts convict him or try to get the looted money back.

These, and many more related issues, have been discussed at all the forums and broad policy decisions appear to have been taken. How will these decisions be seen and felt by the nation will depend on the pace of the various processes which are continuing and will go on.

The most awaited detailed judgment in the NRO case will probably trigger the series of events that will unfold. The PPP has so far refused to implement the judgment and it is set to continue the defiance. If the Supreme Court fails to get its judgments implemented, then the entire people’s movement for an independent judiciary will come to a naught. That no one will want, so the next logical step is for the SC to ask for help, which will have to come, as required under the Constitution.

Even then if the PPP defiance continues, the coalition partners in parliament will have to decide whether they want a Zardari dictatorship or rule of law and the establishment will again get the chance to play the decisive role in influencing their judgments.

If after all the turmoil and turbulence it appears that the present parliament is unable to give a stable majority government, the only option will be to go back to the people for mid-term polls.

The tragedy is that in all these crucial matters, the attitude of the elected PPP leadership is despicable and pathetic. The PPP claims to be a federal party but is behaving like a petty opposition group, unable to make up its mind whether it should play a sobering and mature national political role or confine itself to a small nationalist group in Sindh.

The bottom-line is that everyone who is concerned knows what is going on and no one will allow the present policy of Zardari to succeed. He thinks he will take everybody down, if he goes down himself, but no body is going with him as he as to clear himself of corruption charges before claiming to be a moral or national leader of a province or the country. His election as president has not washed away the charges against him. In fact he has, by his actions, reinforced his image of a non-serious, happy-go-lucky, not too worried about moral issues guy, who has nothing to lose. This image of the president of Pakistan is untenable.