India’s ‘great game’ in Pakistan and Afghanistan

[DEADLYDOCTOR]

India’s ‘great game’ in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Asif Haroon Raja

India has always vied to maintain friendly ties with Afghanistan and to keep Pak-Afghan relations frosty.
When Soviet forces occupied Afghanistan in December 1979, India supported the illegal invasion as well as Soviet installed regimes in Kabul throughout the Afghan war. Pakistan supported the just cause of Mujahideen and provided moral, political, diplomatic and covert military support to them and also accepted the burden of nearly five million Afghan refugees.
Defeat and withdrawal of Soviet forces after the Geneva Accord on 14 April 1989 led to war of attrition between warring groups since the US abandoned Afghanistan in haste and paid no heed to Pakistan’s suggestion of forming a broad-based interim regime.
Despite Pakistan being left in a lurch, it remained in touch with all the six competing groups vying for power and tried hard to bring about reconciliation but could not succeed. With the takeover of power by the Taliban in 1996, Northern Alliance (NA) under Ahmad Shah Masud got confined to Panjsher Valley only, while ousted Mujahideen leaders took refuge in Iran. It brought a dramatic change resulting in waning of Indian influence in Afghanistan and warming up of Pak-Afghan relations. India hastened to get close to Iran to be able to impart military training to NA military personnel. Iran, Russia and western world including USA supplemented Indian efforts.
Since mid nineties, India pursued anti-Taliban and pro-NA policy. Once US-led coalition forces decided to invade Afghanistan in October 2001, Indian military provided intimate guidance and military support to NA forces to fight the Taliban. After ousting the Taliban from power, India guided NA leaders to deal ruthlessly with Afghan and Pakistani captives so as to create a permanent wedge between Afghan/Pakistan Pashtuns and Afghan non-Pashtuns. Indian spy agency, RAW, carried away 1,300 Taliban and Pakistani prisoners from Baghram Air Base jail to be able to brainwash them and subsequently use them as Pakistani Taliban against Pakistan security forces. India played a role in convincing the Bush administration to marginalise the Pashtuns from all departments and to bring up non-Pashtuns on the centre-stage in Afghanistan since it was only through such an arrangement that India could gain wholesome influence in that country. India took full advantage of new rules framed on terrorism in the wake of 9/11 and started to project Kashmir freedom struggle as terrorism and Pakistan an abettor of cross-border terrorism. Efforts were intensified to create doubts and to bring Pakistan in bad books of Washington. Afghanistan under Hamid Karzai was also taken on board to play up the theme of cross-border terrorism against Pakistan.
For the achievement of common objectives against Pakistan, the Central Investigation Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation under the garb of nabbing terrorists established their contacts and set up outposts in selected areas. India opened up Pakistan consulates in Kandahar, Jalalabad, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat and filled these up with RAW agents. India also opened up three Balochistan-specific consulates in Zahidan, Bandar Abbas and Ashkabad in Iran. Training centres were opened in Kabul, Jalalabad, Khwaja Ghar (Takher Province), Khost, Paktia, Urgun, Khandar, Spin Boldak, Dranj (Badakhshan Province). Refugee camps for Balochistan dissidents were established in Kandahar, Spin Boldak, Helmand and Nimroz. Besides, 70 training camps were established all along Pakistan's western border where Afghans, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Chechens, Arabs and dissidents from Pakistan were trained, equipped and launched into FATA and Balochistan by Indian trainers and RAW officials.
Both RAW and Mossad opened up madrassas where Hindus were imparted Islamic teachings and language courses by Indian Muslim clerics and scholars to enable the chosen agents to get mixed with locals in selected regions. This hideous practice had successfully been tried by Israel against Palestinians.
In order to hide its real face, India deceptively signed a peace deal with Pakistan in January 2004 and agreed to silence guns deployed along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir and in Siachen. Composite dialogue envisaged resolution of all disputes including the core issue of Kashmir, but in order to buy time to scuttle real issues, India shrewdly deflected it by insisting on first building trust and confidence through people-to-people contacts, cultural exchanges and economic ventures benefiting India.
Side by side a malicious Indo-Israeli-Western propaganda campaign was orchestrated to undermine Pakistan's institutions and its nuclear programme. All sorts of stories of break-up of Pakistan into quasi states and its nuclear programme falling into wrong hands were fed to the world. American attitude which was apparently friendly to start with became aggressive from 2006 onwards because of Indian intrigues. Pakistan was subjected to unrelenting vilification campaign and pushed to do more despite the fact that it was rendering more sacrifices than any other country fighting war on terror. The Pakistan Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence were accused of playing a double game by having links with Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Attitude of the US military became intimidating and it indicated its desire to carry out aerial and ground raids in FATA to hunt Osama and other al-Qaeda leaders. India continued to maintain a hostile posture after the Mumbai carnage in November and refused to resume composite dialogue until and unless Pakistan agreed to punish Indian-nominated culprits and to dismantle anti-Indian terror networks. What India in actuality meant was to either forget about Kashmir or accept the Line of Control as permanent border!
Indian high flying ambitions got upset because of sudden turn of events in Afghanistan. Already reeling under the shock of Obama's sudden decision to commence withdrawal of US forces from July 2011 onwards, it got another shock on learning that the US had made up its mind to negotiate a settlement with the Taliban. Indian lobbyists in league with Jewish lobby sprung into action and managed to achieve partial success. They have convinced the US leadership not to commit the mistake of holding talks with whole lot of Taliban leadership. They prevailed upon policymakers to follow old British policy of divide-and-rule and to divide the Taliban into two categories of moderates and extremists, and to isolate the latter. They fed false intelligence that 80 percent of the Taliban were reconcilable and were mentally prepared to ditch their irreconcilable leadership for cash and endowment. London Conference endorsed this plan and pledged a heavy financial package to buy the loyalties of the moderates but cold shouldered India. In the meanwhile, India as well as Karzai stepped up efforts to win over as many Taliban leaders and made some progress but their secret machinations aimed at keeping Pakistan out got blocked when Pakistan agencies succeeded in nabbing almost 50pc of the Taliban Shura members including Mulla Baradar.
Under the rapidly changing environment, India would strive to keep its expanding influence intact, keep US-NATO troops in Afghanistan for another five to ten years, keep the NA heavy regime in power, decimate the power of Taliban, keep Pakistan encircled and under two-front threat by turning Afghanistan into an anti-Pakistan client state. The NA too would welcome this arrangement.
Karzai would prefer to remain American-Indian stooge to remain in power at the cost of Pashtuns for he knows that he will have no place in Afghanistan if the Taliban return to power. Preferring the NA over Taliban, Iran would endeavour to further expand its influence in Afghanistan and to convert Chahbahar Port into main trading point. It will be in interest of Iran if USA remains bogged down in Afghan quagmire for as long as possible.
Russia would be thinking on similar lines as well but would remain on high alert of the CIA’s covert operations in Central Asian States. As such it is quite likely that both Iran and Russia are quietly adding fuel to fire.
China feeling uncomfortable with the US and Indian presence in Afghanistan because of their meddlesome role in Tibet and Xingjian and sinister plans to encircle China would celebrate early exit of both.
The US would like to quit Afghanistan by 2012 with honour leaving behind friendly Afghanistan ruled by a mix of moderate Taliban and the NA under handpicked ruler and would prefer India filling its vacuum rather than Pakistan.
Pakistan on the other hand would like foreign troops to exit at the earliest, India to close down Pakistan specific consulates, training centres and training camps and move out its military and intelligence outfits. It wants to see Afghanistan peaceful and stable but would never like stable Afghanistan unfriendly to Pakistan and friendly to India.
India has lost its primacy in Afghan affairs but it would make desperate efforts to salvage what it can from the crumbling edifice it had built and to keep Pakistan out.
It is high time that the occupiers of this wretched country governed by mercantile interests put an end to their games of intrigues and power play and sincerely work for early exit. Gen McChrystal may buy time but not victory. Longer the stay, larger will be the fatalities on both sides. Since time and fatalities are prime concerns of the US and are of no consequence to the Taliban, the US will be the ultimate loser. Dialogue without Mulla Omar, Jalaluddin Haqqani and Gulbadin Hikmatyar would be an exercise in futility. Neither force nor Indian machinations would work anymore. Pakistan is the only country that can help and can play a key role in solving Afghan tangle provided the US stops relying on wily India and good-for-nothing Karzai and place complete trust on Pakistan.
source:http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/national%201.htm