The News: Political Economy: Opinion & Analysis
 

Dear friends,

I am starting this thread to collect the important articles printed in The News on Sunday in Political Economy Section. I am certain that the serious aspirants of CSS know what importance such articles carry. So let's begin.

[B][CENTER]Indo-US relations, a perspective
[/CENTER][/B]
[CENTER]What the act of coming closer of the two countries has in store for Pakistan?

By Hussain H. Zaidi[/CENTER]

It has become customary for the West to woo India for reasons chiefly economic and partly political. First, it was the British Prime Minister David Cameron, who during his visit to India in August this year declared that he wanted to make his country the "partner of choice" for New Delhi. And now Barack Obama, the President of the globe’s sole superpower, not only termed India-US relationship one of this century’s ‘defining partnerships’ but also declared his country’s support to India for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

Given the familiar Pakistan-India antagonism, it is difficult to avoid flattering New Delhi without at the same time castigating Islamabad. Though Obama was more discreet than Mr Cameron in reproaching Pakistan, he did express his dissatisfaction with the pace of Islamabad’s fight against terrorism. More importantly, he did not criticize New Delhi for the human right situation in Kashmir and reiterated Washington’s position that Pakistan and India needed to sort out their problems bilaterally and that his country would mediate only if both parties consented to that. This is another way of ruling out any American mediation, because India does not want it.

Indo-US relations have come a long way from the suspicion of the Cold War days to the present strategic partnership. This is evident from the fact that out of five presidential visits from the US to India since 1947, when the latter got independence, three have been made during last one decade. In fact, all the three last American presidents, including the incumbent made it a point to visit India — a tribute to New Delhi’s growing international stature and its increasing importance for Washington.

It was President Bush who accepted India as a nuclear power when he sealed a nuclear cooperation deal with that country in 2008. And now Mr Obama wants to build on that relationship. No wonder, his three-day India trip was his longest visit to any country since taking over as American president.

The visit took place at a time when the world’s largest economy is struggling to come out of economic slump and is facing double-digit unemployment. In 2009, the US economy contracted by 2.6 percent and is projected to register a modest growth of 2.6 percent this year and 2.3 per cent next year (IMF’s World Economic Outlook October 2010).

By contrast, India is booming: the economy grew by 5.7 percent in 2009 and is projected to expand by 9.7 percent and 8.4 percent this year and next year respectively. Like a full purse, a rapidly growing economy is never short of friends, who want to cash on its trade and investment potential.

Hence, not surprisingly, the avowed purpose of Mr Obama’s visit to India, like that of Mr Cameron a few months back, was to seek opportunities for his country’s businesses and create jobs to help revive the economy. During the visit the two sides struck trade deals worth $10 billion that are likely to create 50,000 jobs.

Already, India-US economic and commercial relations are growing. Merchandise trade between the two countries has approached $46 billion, including $24.48 billion exports from the USA and $21.40 billion exports from India. In addition, the two countries have $22 billion trade in services. For India, the USA is a major trading partner accounting for 12 percent of the country’s global exports and 8 percent of its global imports.

Though US exports to India have nearly doubled during the last five years, India’s share in America’s global exports is only 1.8 percent, while America’s share in India’s global imports is about 7.5 percent. Given India’s strong economic growth, its status as the world’s second largest market, and liberalization of the economy, the US would like to push up its exports to India and take a larger pie of the Indian market.

Hence, before his visit to India, Obama had underlined the need for greater access to Indian market to boost America’s global exports as a means to create jobs and contain its huge current account deficit. In the USA, the economy plays a greater role than any other factor in shaping politics and Obama, who just before embarking on the Indian trip had suffered substantial losses in mid-term elections, knows that his re-election heavily depends on the economic performance of his administration.

The growing Indo-US ties reflect the present era of economic diplomacy in which a country’s position in the comity of nations is primarily determined by its economic and commercial strength and by and large economics takes precedence over politics in shaping inter-state relations. Hence, developing and sustaining a sound economy and securing and protecting economic interests abroad are the priority of governments’ internal and external policies respectively.

This explains why there is so much emphasis on forming blocs and concluding agreements for economic integration and promoting trade and investment.

Indo-US relations have a political dimension as well. The US wants to preserve the existing uni-polar global order based on the philosophy of liberalism, whose political expression is democracy and economic manifestation is free market economy.

The US realises that although it is the lone superpower, it cannot control world affairs independently. It needs regional partners or allies, particularly those believing in economic and political liberalism to control the world.

India is well-suited to play that role as acknowledged by Mr Obama himself in his address to Indian parliament when he said, "As the world’s two largest democracies, as large and growing free market economies, as diverse multi-ethnic societies with strong traditions of pluralism and tolerance, we have not only an opportunity, but also a responsibility to lead."

The US also claims Pakistan to be its strategic partner. However, the dynamics of Pak-America relations are fundamentally different from Indo-America’s. While the US interest in Islamabad consists mainly in the war on terror and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, New Delhi has a much larger role to play in Washington’s scheme of things as borne out by Obama’s quoted words.

That Pakistan cannot receive the same treatment from America as India does is hardly surprising as the two countries are on different scales economically and politically.

[B]
[CENTER] 21-11-2010, Sunday
Indo-US relations, a perspective
[/CENTER][/B]
[CENTER]What the act of coming closer of the two countries has in store for Pakistan?

By Hussain H. Zaidi[/CENTER]

It has become customary for the West to woo India for reasons chiefly economic and partly political. First, it was the British Prime Minister David Cameron, who during his visit to India in August this year declared that he wanted to make his country the "partner of choice" for New Delhi. And now Barack Obama, the President of the globe’s sole superpower, not only termed India-US relationship one of this century’s ‘defining partnerships’ but also declared his country’s support to India for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

Given the familiar Pakistan-India antagonism, it is difficult to avoid flattering New Delhi without at the same time castigating Islamabad. Though Obama was more discreet than Mr Cameron in reproaching Pakistan, he did express his dissatisfaction with the pace of Islamabad’s fight against terrorism. More importantly, he did not criticize New Delhi for the human right situation in Kashmir and reiterated Washington’s position that Pakistan and India needed to sort out their problems bilaterally and that his country would mediate only if both parties consented to that. This is another way of ruling out any American mediation, because India does not want it.

Indo-US relations have come a long way from the suspicion of the Cold War days to the present strategic partnership. This is evident from the fact that out of five presidential visits from the US to India since 1947, when the latter got independence, three have been made during last one decade. In fact, all the three last American presidents, including the incumbent made it a point to visit India — a tribute to New Delhi’s growing international stature and its increasing importance for Washington.

It was President Bush who accepted India as a nuclear power when he sealed a nuclear cooperation deal with that country in 2008. And now Mr Obama wants to build on that relationship. No wonder, his three-day India trip was his longest visit to any country since taking over as American president.

The visit took place at a time when the world’s largest economy is struggling to come out of economic slump and is facing double-digit unemployment. In 2009, the US economy contracted by 2.6 percent and is projected to register a modest growth of 2.6 percent this year and 2.3 per cent next year (IMF’s World Economic Outlook October 2010).

By contrast, India is booming: the economy grew by 5.7 percent in 2009 and is projected to expand by 9.7 percent and 8.4 percent this year and next year respectively. Like a full purse, a rapidly growing economy is never short of friends, who want to cash on its trade and investment potential.

Hence, not surprisingly, the avowed purpose of Mr Obama’s visit to India, like that of Mr Cameron a few months back, was to seek opportunities for his country’s businesses and create jobs to help revive the economy. During the visit the two sides struck trade deals worth $10 billion that are likely to create 50,000 jobs.

Already, India-US economic and commercial relations are growing. Merchandise trade between the two countries has approached $46 billion, including $24.48 billion exports from the USA and $21.40 billion exports from India. In addition, the two countries have $22 billion trade in services. For India, the USA is a major trading partner accounting for 12 percent of the country’s global exports and 8 percent of its global imports.

Though US exports to India have nearly doubled during the last five years, India’s share in America’s global exports is only 1.8 percent, while America’s share in India’s global imports is about 7.5 percent. Given India’s strong economic growth, its status as the world’s second largest market, and liberalization of the economy, the US would like to push up its exports to India and take a larger pie of the Indian market.

Hence, before his visit to India, Obama had underlined the need for greater access to Indian market to boost America’s global exports as a means to create jobs and contain its huge current account deficit. In the USA, the economy plays a greater role than any other factor in shaping politics and Obama, who just before embarking on the Indian trip had suffered substantial losses in mid-term elections, knows that his re-election heavily depends on the economic performance of his administration.

The growing Indo-US ties reflect the present era of economic diplomacy in which a country’s position in the comity of nations is primarily determined by its economic and commercial strength and by and large economics takes precedence over politics in shaping inter-state relations. Hence, developing and sustaining a sound economy and securing and protecting economic interests abroad are the priority of governments’ internal and external policies respectively.

This explains why there is so much emphasis on forming blocs and concluding agreements for economic integration and promoting trade and investment.

Indo-US relations have a political dimension as well. The US wants to preserve the existing uni-polar global order based on the philosophy of liberalism, whose political expression is democracy and economic manifestation is free market economy.

The US realises that although it is the lone superpower, it cannot control world affairs independently. It needs regional partners or allies, particularly those believing in economic and political liberalism to control the world.

India is well-suited to play that role as acknowledged by Mr Obama himself in his address to Indian parliament when he said, "As the world’s two largest democracies, as large and growing free market economies, as diverse multi-ethnic societies with strong traditions of pluralism and tolerance, we have not only an opportunity, but also a responsibility to lead."

The US also claims Pakistan to be its strategic partner. However, the dynamics of Pak-America relations are fundamentally different from Indo-America’s. While the US interest in Islamabad consists mainly in the war on terror and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, New Delhi has a much larger role to play in Washington’s scheme of things as borne out by Obama’s quoted words.

That Pakistan cannot receive the same treatment from America as India does is hardly surprising as the two countries are on different scales economically and politically.

[CENTER][B]21-11-2010, SUnday
Foreign policy options[/B]

A conference on foreign policy issues of Pakistan discards the old rules and suggests a new shift

By Raza Khan[/CENTER]

At a time when Pakistan is facing the consequences of decades of controversial foreign policy choices it made there is a need to have an appraisal of the existing and previous foreign policy directions which the decision-makers of the country have followed. That is to ascertain to what extent policy objectives have been achieved or otherwise.

This is indeed important to have an informed debate on the extremely critical aspect of state functioning in order to point out the wrongs and avoid repetition of the same.

There is too much talk about Islamabad’s foreign relations with other countries, particularly the US, India, and China but little debate on serious issues regarding foreign policy the state has followed. Through debates on Pakistan’s foreign policy, its objectives, and the tools employed to pursue these goals, inputs from the federating units can be incorporated as policy options.

Debates involving local experts and communities could help shape direction of country’s foreign policy. This is really important for what we may call democratising foreign policy-making processes in the country, in particular against the backdrop that Pakistan’s foreign policy has never been reflective of people’s sentiments and aspirations.

This is one aspect of the process of democratization our politicians have failed to realise. However, international community, especially the Friends of Pakistan are fully cognizant of the need of having public debate in different provinces on state’s foreign policy.

German think-tank cum NGO, Hanns Seidel Foundation, recently held an international conference on Pakistan’s foreign policy in Peshawar. The two-day international conference the German Foundation organised in collaboration with Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar, was titled Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Analysis at Domestic, Regional and International Levels.

As a participant, one felt a bit nervous about the fact that foreigners are organising debates and discussions which we should have organised ourselves as part of the democratization process. Nevertheless, one still felt it was great that at least some kind of a debate was being held on one of the most important subjects that is Pakistan’s foreign policy in Peshawar.

The holding of the conference in Peshawar was appropriate because the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA are arguably the most affected due to the wrong foreign policy decisions.

Here, one should take into consideration anti-communist and USSR policy of Pakistan which brought Peshawar to a brink of virtual extinction. It was when Soviet Union’s Brezhnev had ordered to eliminate the city after the 1958 U-2 incident in which an American reconnaissance aircraft U-2, taking off from Badabher airbase in Peshawar, was shot down in Soviet Union and its American pilot arrested.

Afterwards, it was KPK and FATA which served as a frontline region of Pakistan during the capitalist world’s anti-communist Afghan resistance. Subsequently, efforts in Pakistan were made to make Afghanistan its strategic backyard. Scholars from Germany, Nepal, China, India and different Pakistani universities participated in the conference.

Presenting a paper on Pakistan-India Relations, Dr Andreas Jakob from Germany maintained that had Pakistan being a purely democratic, federal and secular country Islamabad’s foreign policy responses to India would have been quite different. He said this would have salubrious effects on Pakistani-India relations and stability of the region. He maintained that due to wrong foreign policy objectives, which Islamabad pursued, Indian influence in the region and the world has increased which would further narrow Pakistan foreign policy choices in the coming years.

President of Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Dr Maqsoodul Hassan Nuri, presented a paper on The Impact of Middle East on Pakistan’s Foreign Policy and pointed towards the fact that for right answers regarding foreign policy people must ask right questions. One was a bit surprised to hear someone from Pakistan pointing at the loopholes in Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Dr Noori said, "Pakistan committed several mistakes in formulating foreign policy, however, this was high time for a course correction." In this regard, he emphasized that Pakistan’s foreign policy in contemporary world should be formed on the principles of economic nationalism, good relations with the US and West and, above all, Islamabad’s de-ideologization of its foreign policy.

Many participants at the conference agreed with Dr Noori that the so-called ideology-laced foreign policy has been unrealistic and has added to the problems being faced by the people. Dr Noori also pointed towards the fact that the policy of pursuing nuclear technology for Pakistan was good, adding though that terrorism and poverty, main issues of Pakistan, could not be fought with nuclear arms. One could not agree more with Dr Nuri’s assertion that ‘Arabization’ of Pakistani and its Pakhtun sub-culture had had its role in the rise of religious extremism in Pakistan.

Dr Babar Shah from Area Study Centre, University of Peshawar, during his presentation on Emerging Dynamics of Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations, maintained that radical shift has taken place in Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan in the post 9/11 period. Babar said that in the pre 9/11 period Pakistan’s policy about Afghanistan rested on promoting religious rightists or clerics; countering Pakhtoon nationalism emanating from Kabul, and to make Afghanistan a ‘strategic backyard’. He made an interesting point saying that Kabul’s accusation of cross-border terrorism from Pakistan meant that Kabul had come to recognize legitimacy of the Durand Line as a permanent border between the two countries.

Professor Zhao Rong from China, while making a presentation on Chinese Perspective on Pakistan’s Foreign Policy said that the world and regional powers must know that the security and stability of South Asian region depended on a strong Pakistan. To give an example of Pakistan’s diplomatic importance, the Chinese scholar called upon US and his own country (China) that both should not forget the historic role which Pakistan had played in bringing them together in the 1970s.

Professor Dr Savita Pande of Jawahar Lal Nehru University, India made a presentation on Indian Perspective on Pakistan’s Foreign Policy through video conferencing. He maintained that Pakistan never had a coherent foreign policy; rather it only had foreign relations with different states. She said due to this anomaly Pakistan’s policy has been a failure. The participation of an Indian scholar in a conference in Pakistan and that too on such a sensitive topic was indeed a welcome development. This should give Indians an idea that Pakistan is an open society.

The richness of the debate in the conference could be gauged from the fact that a large number of other national and international scholars not only presented papers but gave a lot of food for thought. Dr Janardan Raj Sharma from Nepal made a presentation on Pakistan’s regional role. Professor Rasul Bakhsh Rais from Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) read a paper titled, Exploring Alternative Foreign Policy Paths for Pakistan from Nonsensical to Sensible; Mr Imdad Chandio from Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, read a paper on Domestic Leftist Perspective on Pakistan Foreign Policy, and Ms Salma Malik, from Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, spoke about radicalization and its impact on Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Students of the University of Peshawar also fully participated in the debate on Pakistan’s foreign policy and asked some very critical and pertinent questions from experts. After hearing questions, observations and comments of students, who represent the new generation of educated Pakistani youth, it was clear that they were largely dissatisfied with the formulation, conduct, and objectives of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

It goes without saying that there is a need to hold more such debates and discussions on Pakistan’s foreign policy in different parts of the country. Collective wisdom of the people must give our rulers a policy direction. One expects that such conferences are also held in Balochistan.

[CENTER][B]21-11-2010, Sunday
Economic subjugation
[/B]
The economy is fast plummeting and worse is still to come if curative measures are not taken on a war-footing

By Huzaima Bukhari and Dr. Ikramul Haq
[/CENTER]
Resistance against subjugation — in colonial and neo-colonial era — was once a most cherished value that received praise from great thinkers, many of whom kindled such movements through their writings.

Resistance literature is part of our great human heritage. It has long been a source of resilience and self-esteem for nations that defeated imperialists and neo-colonial forces to earn liberation from exploitation and alien rule.

Unfortunately, the Late Neo-colonial forces in the wake of 9/11 cleverly managed to counter genuine liberation and resistance movements against their hegemonic designs under the pretext of "war against terror". This is, no doubt, one of the most lamentable strategies of the late Neo-colonialists, in which religious fanatics are their main accomplices.

Pakistan is facing multi-faced subjugation. Our subjugation is a self-inflicted phenomenon — our leadership, both military and civilian, has surrendered before late Neo-colonial forces. Yet the people of Pakistan have not surrendered. They are showing resilience even during extreme hardship when basic necessities like sugar and wheat flour are being rendered as rare commodity for them.

Economic subjugation, dictates of the IMF and other donors, wrongdoings of the people at the helm of affairs, unprecedented luxuries enjoyed by the rulers at taxpayers’ expense — all cumulatively — have culminated into an economically unviable state.

Our political and economic subjugation is now complete, or so it seems. The issue of gold and copper reserves at Reko Dik in Balochistan clearly testifies to this. Repeated requests of civil and military leadership to the Prime Minister of Pakistan and American President to ask NATO forces not to violate territorial boundaries of Pakistan is a slap in the face of this nation.

It is not diplomacy but utter submission before those who are the main cause of the present-day crisis in our tribal areas and elsewhere. The forces of obscurantism are used by these late Neo-colonial forces to make us subservient. The need of the hour is to mobilise people against late Neo-colonialists and their cronies — the militants who are exploiting religion for self-interest.

For resisting subjugation, we need to pay immediate attention to pressing issues: foreign forces attacks in our tribal areas, rising wave of militancy, discord amongst coalition partners, horrifying debt burden, worsening balance of payments position, undesirable increase in wasteful expenditure, growing unemployment, widening trade and fiscal deficits, high cost of doing business, burden of new taxes, increases in utility bills, failure of revenue authorities to tap actual revenue potential of over Rs.3trillion and industrial meltdown — just to mention a few.

The economy is fast plummeting and worse is still to come if curative measures are not taken on a war-footing. People’s purchasing power is diminishing, banks have less liquidity, lending rates are exorbitantly high and activities at stock markets are sluggish. The investors are shy and afraid, mainly due to perpetuation of political instability and economic uncertainty. Life for the common man on the streets is becoming a misery leading to social restlessness.

Although we claim to be an agricultural economy yet a vast majority of the people do not have enough to eat. It is tragic that we even import agricultural products and have miserably failed to develop any worthwhile agro-based industry in the last six decades.

Look at the mess our successive governments, military and civilian alike; have created on the debt front. The figure of foreign debt is a monstrous US$55 billion — it is going to be US$75 billion in 2015 — and that of domestic debt is over Rs.5trillion now.

Both the external and internal debts are increasing at a frightening rate. The way we are managing our resources is criminal and is leading us to self-annihilation. Fiscal deficit of over Rs1 trillion is expected during the current fiscal year. This testifies to bankruptcy of our political leadership and IMF-imposed economic managers who keep on relying on incompetent and corrupt bureaucracy.

The policy of appeasement towards tax evaders, money launderers and plunderers of national wealth is showing its impact in all spheres: political culture of changing loyalties continues. In this bleak scenario, our political leaders have no definitive plans how to come out of crises.

The most worrisome sector of economy is agriculture. The rural population is constantly being pushed below the poverty line, making all the targets of growth unachievable. If we have to develop economically, agriculture will have to play a critical role in the fight against poverty.

Vital areas like mechanisation, irrigation, plant protection and improved seeds have not been given proper attention although on paper there are many departments (including agricultural universities) spending millions and millions on claiming to have achieved wonders. In reality, even the issue of loans to small farmers is nothing but just another scandalous affair where a few are making a lot of money in the name of poor farmers.

The industries are already over-taxed but instead of getting any relief, these are being asked to pay even more exorbitant taxes. Fiscal laws impose a number of obligations on citizens but in return they do not get guarantee of life and protection of property what to talk of basis facilities like education, health and housing.

To top it all, a draconian sword hangs on taxpayers as FBR officers issue notices for default for acts not committed willfully. There is no political will to tax the mighty sections of society and the entire tax burden is being shifted on the poor through indirect taxes either in the form of sales tax, federal excise duty or presumptive taxes in the so-called direct taxes — IMF’s insistence on VAT, now renamed as Reformed General Sales tax (RGST), will have inflationary effect and it will push more and more people below the poverty line.

When half of the population of the country is facing malnourishment, wasteful expenditure continues unabated. The grim truth of Pakistan is the habit on the part of the rulers and their lackeys to indulge in self-deception by relying on foreign masters, self-praise, and self-perpetuation at the time of crises without realising how disastrous these acts can be.

All the governments, including the present one, think that serious economic problems can easily be solved by seeking the help of IMF, World Bank, ADB and other donors. This is certainly a disastrous and suicidal path. We cannot come out of debt-enslavement, which is the main cause of our subjugation, unless we first become an economically self-reliant nation. For this, the rulers will have to take the first step by living at very modest level, start paying their taxes and then mobilising the masses for struggle to take a great economic leap forward.

The writers, tax lawyers, are Adjunct Professors at the Lahore University of Management Sciences

[CENTER][B]21-11-2010, Sunday
Politics of the common man
[/B]
Ours is a case of lack of focus on the right issues

By Salman Abid
[/CENTER]
The poor and marginalised sections of society face discrimination in one form or the other. Understandably then, people belonging to marginalised groups are more vulnerable to disparities in the country.

According to statistics posted on the Australian government website’s Pakistan section, almost one third of Pakistan’s 170 million people live below the poverty line and more than 60 percent live on less than 2 dollars per day. National health and education systems in Pakistan are under-resourced. Public health expenditure is around 4 dollars per person per year.

Statistics on the website say, only "1.8 percent of GDP is invested in education, compared to a global weighted average of 4.9 percent. Progress towards the achievement of education and health-related Millennium Development Goals has, as a result, been slow. Social indicators are poor, even by comparison with other countries in South Asia. Women and girls are particularly disadvantaged. Infant mortality rates remain amongst the highest in the region. One in ten children dies before age five."

It is unfortunate that our concentration is on the development of main cities as compared to others districts. A majority of the common people do not have basic infrastructure, especially education, health, water, sanitation, food, security, and justice.

The state is responsible to provide basic fundamental rights and facilities but has totally failed to fulfill expectations of the poor people, especially women, children, minorities, and labourers. Actually, the role of the state has been minimized due to increasing privatisation in the country and thus fails to provide basic facilities to the common man. Due to bad governance; state and government policies, people are being compelled to become marginalized and the number is increasing.

We should admit open-heartedly that the state, government, and political intelligentsia have failed to invest in the poor people for their welfare. We are spending more money on non development expenditure as compared to development expenditure. If the state and government face any challenge or disaster then ultimately the development funds are cut down in the name of national interest. People are more frustrated when they see the ruling elite’s social life and their living standards. This is in sharp contrast to the common people.

Our political parties and their leaders are very good at claiming they cater to larger public interest issues. But results are totally different, ignoring the poor peoples’ agenda at large. Unfortunately, we did not develop issues-based politics in the country emphasizing more on non issues in agenda. Political parties’ manifestoes and their commitment towards poor people are not implemented when the parties come in powers. This is because political parties are not accountable to the masses about their own performances.

Perhaps they believe in the conspiracy theory that political power is acquired through the establishment and not from people’s vote. That is why people do not feel strongly associated with their representatives. The question is why the poor and marginalized people have failed to strengthen their own role within the available political framework in the country?

The overall development paradigm focuses on some specific groups and individuals already getting more benefits from different actions. People are still dependent on the ruling elite, and power-based groups like feudal, industrialist and a strong bureaucracy. People have more expectations from political parties and their leaders about good governance and transparent and accountable system in the country.

People also have expectations from institutions for getting some services. Our state, governments and their civil leadership lay more stress on unimportant issues than on common people’s problems. This results from an absence of prioritisation of issues by the institutions.

We have some good laws and policies for the common man but we do not implement them and people feel abandoned. This attitude of the government makes people feel further isolated from the political process. Politics in rural areas is also questionable. Most of the basic health units are not functioning and the basic support structures are not there. Poor people are more vulnerable in society due to the ruling elite’s policies.

One major reason for this political chaos is lack of accountability of government’s policies for the common people. Then there is also lack of participation by the common man in the decision-making process. If the common man is organised, he can challenge injustice. Sadly, most of the time media is also part of the power-based political dynamics and reflects their interest in the name of poor people.

The ruling elite should realise the seriousness of this issue and also avoid political slogans because at this point people need actions and not just commitments. Some of our prominent leaders have raised the issue of disparity among the common people and have publicly warned the government that if it fails to perform its duty a revolt is eminent. But, unfortunately, these leaders have major contradictions and do not come up to people’s expectations.

We should admit that non state actors — militants and extremists — have consolidated their position due to the government’s poor policies. This is perhaps the last chance for our ruling elite to mend their ways and restructure their politics in line with the people’s expectations.

The writer is a political analyst and human rights campaigner. He can be reached at [email]salmanabidpk@gmail.com[/email]

[CENTER][B]21-11-2010, Sunday
Fundamental shift[/B]

An indicator of successful implementation of human security paradigm would be a visible reduction in the gap between the haves and have-nots

Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri[/CENTER]

It seems anything that can go wrong is going wrong for people of Pakistan. Security situation is getting worse; natural and man-made disasters are hitting it hard; inflation is at its peak; food and fuel price hike seems unmanageable; governance issues and stories of corruption are not only tarnishing the image of government but also weakening the writ of the state.

Continued increase in power tariff, proposed increase in gas tariff, introduction of new taxes, and hoarding of essential food items have turned the life of common persons miserable. What to talk of balanced and nutritious diet, vegetables and pulses — low budget diet — has also gone beyond the access of common Pakistani.

What would happen next? Every other person asks this question, while his/her respondent shrugs the shoulder and leaves everything to God. Frankly speaking, things were never shining in Pakistan. People have been facing crisis after crisis since inception of this country. However, the major difference is that distribution of the effect of these crises has turned much skewed now.

Few among 180 million Pakistanis find the system bowing to their feet. Their wishes and desires become the order of the day and that too at the cost of sufferings of the vast majority. Flood changes its course to save their properties and lands; merits get tailored to adjust their candidature; prices of essential commodities are allowed to soar till their stocks get sold; they always escape from taxation and effect of inflation.

Irrespective of the fact whether they are in power or in the opposition, whether in service or retired, these few can really testify that Pakistan is a gift for them. That is why they always get invited to certain places and that too on special flights at state expenses while many million Pakistani Muslims can never see their wish to perform Hajj coming true in their life time. Hajj is a big thing, ordinary Pakistani Muslims had nothing to offer as sacrifice at the event of Eid-ul-Azha this year.

Deprivation, poverty, social exclusion, food insecurity and helplessness when gets an identity — whether creed, ethnic, provincial, national, or gender — immediately leads to class conflict. I am referring to clash between haves and have not. The clash between those privileged few and majority of non-privileged who are forced by the system to serve the formers. This clash turns the system to work on auto-destruction mode.

One keeps on criticising the role of external actors and factors in creating the messy situation that Pakistan is facing today. The war on terror, heavy influence of American interests on our national agenda, ineffective foreign policy, uncomfortable relations with neighbours, role of the IMF and other multilateral financial institutions on shaping Pakistan’s economic agenda, etc., all are realities that have been affecting the country (negatively) since long. However, one cannot simply shift the blame on externalities.

One’s own house has to be in order to reduce the effect and influence of external factors. Functional democracy and good governance is a prerequisite to bring the house in order. The only difference that I see between the four army dictators and all democratically elected governments is that army dictators tried to pretend democrats after taking over power, while democratically elected rulers turn dictators after reaching power corridors. None of them ever believed in collective wisdom. None of them can bear a difference of opinion and all of them shun independent voices of sanity. Thus, the gulf between the ruling class (read haves) and commoners (read have nots) gets widened and deeper with every passing day.

Policy-reality disconnect has gone to an extent where agriculture minister denies existence of any food insecurity problem in Pakistan and information minister preaches the people to stop consuming sugar to bring its price down. However, all the ministers are not living in Utopia; at least some ministers are more courageous than agriculture and information ministers and admit the existence of problems. Unfortunately, they are always quick in promising that everything would be perfect overnight. Interior Minister keeps on claiming that target killing would come to an end and law and order situation would be perfect within a fortnight while power minister keeps on giving good news to overcome the power deficit problems very soon. So much so, the opposition too keeps on giving last chance to the government to mend its affairs. Alas, amidst these missed deadlines there is no let-up in common person’s miseries.

What can be done differently? There is a lot that needs to be done to save the system in Pakistan from self-destruction. However, one of the most important things is to enhance resilience and coping capacities among masses against internal and external uncertainties. The priority should be to enable the people to meet minimum basic requirements of life.

In order to do so, we would have to think of a new development paradigm, a paradigm that should revolve around human development and individual security. An indicator of successful implementation of human security paradigm would be a visible reduction in the gap between haves and have not which in turn keeps the societal fabric intact and hold us as a nation together. Failure in bringing this paradigm shift can lead to a situation where no one would be able to save the "haves" from the wrath of "have-nots".

The writer is the executive director of Sustainable Development Policy Institute. He can be reached at [email]suleri@sdpi.org[/email]

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[CENTER][SIZE="4"][B]The most powerful of them all[/B][/SIZE]

The ISI and the rest do in fact play a major role in Pakistani politics and most of what they do is something about which most of us can only speculate

By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar[/CENTER]

When the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (CJ) asked the Attorney-General during yet another hearing of a missing persons case on Thursday whether there is any law in Pakistan which governs the conduct of our vaunted intelligence agencies, he was apparently startled by the negative reply. This is strange since all of Pakistan knows about these agencies who routinely take away Pakistani citizens under the pretext of national security.

Among the major benefits that those committed to the long-term democratisation of the state have garnered from the series of events that started with the CJ’s sacking in March 2007 has been the quite considerable scrutiny that has come to be focused upon the doings of our security establishment, and particularly our spymasters. This is not to suggest that the most powerful amongst the powerful are now held to account any more than in the past, but the fact that petitions are filed in the courts charging them with illegal kidnappings nevertheless represents some progress. Still until and unless political forces assert themselves vis a vis the establishment, what takes place in the courtroom will remain largely symbolic.

Spy agencies, by their very definition, are supposed to be immune from any kind of public accountability. Espionage is not necessarily specific to exercise of power in the modern period but it is undoubtedly true that with the inception of the modern state the secret surveillance apparatus has taken on a life of its own and become a power without parallel in the history of settled societies.

The resources available to official intelligence agencies match the power that they exercise. The fact that much of what they do is not recorded anywhere means that the resources that they are allocated also cannot be attributed to any official expenditure head. In effect this means that almost limitless discretionary funds exist for the sustenance of our spymasters.

Most modern states subscribe to the practice of declassifying official intelligence records two decades after the fact. A lot of ‘research’ on the surveillance apparatus and American foreign policy, for example, is undertaken on the basis of declassified documents of the Department of Defence. This does not mean that the deepest of secrets are ever fully unveiled; no one to this day has been able to make sense of the mystery surrounding John F. Kennedy’s assassination, and it is likely that some such secrets just die with those who made them.

In Pakistan we do not even benefit from the declassification of documents. While there are provisions for certain government records to be accessed by ordinary citizens — typically researchers — it is common practice for state functionaries to deny such access. I have had enough personal experiences trying to secure official circulars from the Zia period stashed away in government archives to know that certain information is simply is out of bounds.

It is now well-documented that in the early 1970s then prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto authorised the creation of a political cell in the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) with a mandate to monitor the activities of political opponents. The decision was fatal not only for Bhutto himself but also for the generation of political activists who lived through the Zia dictatorship. In the post-Zia period, our spymasters’ autonomy has increased and only due to the contradictions thrown up by the so-called ‘war on terror’ has a spanner been thrown in the works.

Conventional thinking suggests that intelligence agencies are a necessary evil. The perceived security threats posed by foreign powers and internal dissidents alike are enough to mandate the existence of the intelligence apparatus. This logic has of course been taken to its logical conclusion in the aftermath of September 11, 2001. Every state in the world now has a justification to make its surveillance apparatus even more unaccountable than before, namely the need to defend the populace against the unending ‘terrorist’ threat.

Pakistanis — particularly those who are politically active — have a rather ambivalent view on intelligence agencies. On the one hand most of us subscribe to the ‘greater national interest’ narrative that endows the intelligence apparatus with so much de facto power. However, there is also a society-wide narrative of conspiracies which begins and ends with the ISI (and its less potent counterparts). Indeed so much of what happens in Pakistani politics is attributed to the ‘agencies’ as to make much of our political banter almost meaningless.

This is not to suggest that conspiracy theories can exist in a society where conspiracies do not take place. The ISI and the rest do in fact play a major role in Pakistani politics and most of what they do is something about which most of us can only speculate. That there is finally open acknowledgment in the courtrooms that are supposed to guarantee us easy and impartial justice is a welcome development. But it is also worth bearing in mind that, in the more than three years since this SC has taken up the issue of missing persons, there has been virtually no progress made. Each successive court hearing ends with the representatives of our agencies feigning ignorance and the court appears quite helpless to do anything about it.

In recent times, too much hope for change in Pakistan has been vested in the SC. There are certain things that the courts should and hopefully will do. But the vast majority of our political quandaries can only be resolved by political forces. Bringing our all-powerful intelligence agencies to account entails a long and painful struggle. Many generations of committed activists have done much to bring us to where we are today. But there is a long way to go yet. Whether or not we have the stomach to take the fight to the most powerful of them all will determine how much progress we make as a democracy and as a multi-national state still searching for an identity.

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Open to debate
[/SIZE][/B]
Government’s efforts to put its development agenda before the world may not be impressive but at least an effort has been made

By Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri[/CENTER]

"Pakistan Development Forum (PDF) was full of contradictions with inconsistencies not only among federal government and provincial governments, but also between various federal ministries", these were the remarks of a German official who was part of German delegation and met me in Berlin the other day.

He is not the only one. Most of us who attended PDF had similar views about the quality of deliberations from the government side. However, before discussing the shortcomings, one should give credit to the current government for reorganising the forum after a long gap. The government should be condoned for diagnosing many of its problems, both chronic and acute, and for admitting that they had weaknesses in system that required immediate solution. The government should be also acknowledged for inviting representatives of civil society organizations there. Although few of us who were there felt that civil society representation was not inclusive and we did not get much chance to share our point of view.

The finance minister kept on clarifying that it was not a donor’s conference. It was a forum where the government placed its development agenda before the international community (with a purpose to seek their help and support) for feedback and suggestions. It is a different matter that only Paris Club plus few others were invited in this forum. Indonesia was a new entry from ASEAN.

The topic of this forum was "Reform Agenda for Sustainable Development". One was expecting reforms, at least in theory if not in practice, for sustainable development after the devastating "man made" floods. However, it was quite a disappointment to note that there was no radical shift and despite recognising its weaknesses and shortcomings, government’s plan for development was business as usual. Actually I should stand corrected.

It was not business as usual. At least in business as usual the government was willing to allocate some funds for public sector development programme. Here one of the major reforms was slashing the developmental budget by a massive amount of 541 billion rupees (off course there was no mention of increasing the defence budget by 110 billion rupees). My major worry was that slashing PSDP would mean taking the fuel out from economic growth engine. Half of the Pakistan is already destroyed by devastating floods and rest of the half would be deprived of public sector development programs (on health, agriculture, education, drinking water, civil infrastructure development etc) because we are diverting this money for flood rehabilitation and reconstruction.

The World Bank and ADB shared their flood damage need assessment report; the one which also carries a logo of government of Pakistan (and hence an endorsement of federal government too) informs that 10 billion dollars are required for rehabilitation and reconstruction. I was asked this question again and again by various German ministries and development organizations during last couple of days whether SDPI or any other civil society organization form Pakistan was part of this damage need assessment.

To this question I can only smile. How can I tell them that what to talk of civil society organizations, many of the governmental organizations including planning commission of Pakistan and provincial governments were also not involved in this exercise. No wonder that initial damage need assessment by federal and provincial governments totals to 41 billion dollars.

Coming back to PDF, the session on social protection measures was the most disappointing one. Shehnaz Wazir Ali was asked to reduce her presentation to 10 minutes. Government very rightly highlighted its flagship social safety net programme Benazir Income Support Programme. However, this programme cannot bring any reforms for sustainable development, certainly not in unusual times when majority of Pakistanis are not only marred by effects of floods, food and fuel inflation but also by the effects of initiatives taken for macro-economic stability.

Can we not think of a modified version of minimum employment guarantee scheme or free school lunch programme as have been initiated in India as examples of effective social safety net programs? I don’t mind if we name it Benazir Minimum Employment Guarantee Scheme, but simply doling out money in the name of BISP programme would certainly not turn our social safety nets any effective or sustainable.

The most interesting part of PDF was contradiction between the statements of Interior Minister and Finance Minister. Interior Minister very passionately appealed for writing off debts as a compensation for Pakistan’s sacrifices in the war against terrorism while Finance Minister was of the view that Pakistan is a responsible borrower and we would never ask for debt writing off as it would negatively affect our credit rating.

Another issue that confused the international community was the contradiction between provincial and federal government’s stance on international help. While federal government had made it clear during earlier Friends of Pakistan Forum that it would be taking care of flood rehabilitation and reconstruction expenditures by mobilising its own resources, provincial governments were requesting for direct financial support from international community.

"We were told that GOP would only request for budgetary support for direct cash grants (through Watan Cards) from international community, but here provinces are asking for support for reconstruction and rehabilitation", commented a Western diplomat.

Reform agenda on taxation was least impressive. All Chairman FBR could present was regressive taxes without any clear plan on how tax net would be broadened. In the absence of any discussion on tax on agricultural income, donors were not convinced that Pakistan is really serious to increase its tax base.

I liked the presentation of Governor State Bank. He was quite candid in pointing that government was borrowing 2 billion rupees per day and hence crowding out the private sector from access to cheap liquidity. After his presentation there was a spontaneous comment from a British diplomat who said it seemed Pakistan’s problems lied in irresponsible domestic borrowing.

There was a luncheon session with business representatives. I must admit that we as a nation are still not ready for civilized meetings like having luncheon talks. Dining hall of a five-star hotel was full of people who were least bothered to listen what was being said by speakers on the podium.

SAARC countries were not invited in PDF. We are founder member of SAARC. There are provisions of SAARC food bank to tackle food security issues. There is a SAARC disaster preparedness mechanism, an agreed upon SAARC counter terrorism mechanism and we don’t want to share our development plans with other SAARC partners.

It would have been better to allocate one session for civil society representatives. This could have been given a positive signal to donor countries that Pakistan is following best practices of transparency and consultation. My major concern is that there was no discussion on land reforms, a crucial prerequisite for any meaningful reform agenda in Pakistan for sustainable development. Last week, I did write about a paradigm shift without which the conflict between have and have not is impossible to avoid. I wished if Pakistan Development Forum could have human development approach.

The writer is executive Director of Sustainable Development Policy Institute. He can be contacted at [email]suleri@sdpi.org[/email]

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][B]India’s role in Doha negotiations[/B][/SIZE]

The critical decision piece needing attention is the modalities on agriculture and non-agriculture market access (NAMA), involving reduction of

tariffs on agriculture products

By Pradeep S Mehta[/CENTER]

The jury is still out whether the Doha Round of the WTO is a development round or not, observed the Brazilian and US ambassadors at a recent workshop on analysis of the Doha round of trade negotiations held at the WTO, Geneva on 2 November. At the concluding session moderated by the Director General, Pascal Lamy, ambassadors from China, India and EU strongly asserted that this is a development round. It was a candid assessment of the geopolitics of the trade and reflected the grim scenario that countries continue to speak to each other with each looking in different directions.

But the workshop was not only about geopolitics but also numbers. Many analysts opined that up to US$200bn could be added to global welfare by the current package of offers. More importantly, they contended that the world could see a 10 percent contraction in trade if Doha fails.

Numbers had little effect on the discussions by the key Ambassadors at the end of the workshop; what matters are the level of ambition and the balance of costs and benefits of the final deal. Jayant Dasgupta, the Indian Ambassador, succinctly summarised it by reminding the meeting of the old metaphor that it is time to enter a period of give and take negotiations and that it is no longer feasible to raise ambitions. I was speaking at the workshop on rules and environment, not too easy but certainly no hurdles in sewing up the Doha Round.

India has been playing a leading role in the Doha negotiations. The Indian trade minister, Anand Sharma, was recently at Geneva to test the waters and reaffirm India’s willingness to negotiate. India has not only been a part of the complex variable geometry of delegations meeting to thrash out differences and pull the negotiations out of its decade-old quagmire, it has taken a lead to pull them along when required.

India has contributed to the emergence of credible draft Chairs’ texts on agriculture and non-agriculture market access negotiations that lead to the last two most hope-generating efforts in July and December 2008. The efforts failed, though Lamy gives it 80 percent marks. In the fall of 2009, when appetite for a trade liberalisation deal was minimal in the wake of the financial crisis, India hosted a mini-ministerial where Lamy installed a roadmap for intense negotiations with capital based senior negotiators. That effort too fizzled out by the next spring, and focus of Geneva-based delegations shifted to more procedural and practical matters like the templates for making commitments, collection of data to determine base years, and so on.

Political leaders continued to meet, in the meanwhile, in various configurations and on the margins of various other meeting opportunities, with November slated to see the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Yokohama followed by the G-20 meeting in Seoul. Another spring is coming, yet no deal appears on the horizon.

In this pessimistic scenario, what can India do? As an engaged trading partner, it can reassess its offers for others to emulate. The critical decision piece needing attention is the "modalities" on agriculture and non-agriculture market access (NAMA): involving reduction of tariffs on agriculture products, elimination of export subsidies and reduction of domestic subsidies, and reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers on industrial products.

In NAMA, the discussions focus on three issues —"coefficients" for tariff reduction, the anti-concentration clause and "sectorals". On the first two, while India may not accept blanket restriction on flexibility built into the December 2008 texts, it is not likely to block a deal. The issue of sectorals, where members may agree to undertake deeper tariff reduction commitments in selected sectors, is more sensitive. India has not shown any aversion to engage on the issue in its effort to get a deal through.

During the last couple of rounds of negotiations on the subject, India has come out with more substantive economic arguments on the difficulties in sectors of interest to others, including through accompanying large business delegations from sectors like the automobiles, and submitting joint proposals in sectors like chemicals. These contributions should enable its trading partners to make a balanced assessment of how far to push India.

India has also been at the forefront of developing a mechanism to address non-tariff barriers, a joint proposal which was discussed at length in the last round of negotiations in October.

Agriculture negotiations are more important for India, with two-third of its population dependent on subsistence farming. Although a number of issues appear to be unsettled in these negotiations - cuts in overall trade distorting support (OTDS), percentage of products to be declared as sensitive products and the connected issue of tariff rate quota expansion, tariff capping, special products — the critical issue needing innovative handling is the proposed Special Safeguards Mechanism (SSM) for developing countries. The proposed SSM would enable developing countries like India to take remedial action through higher tariffs in case of import surges or import induced price declines.

The main differences are between India and the US about the extent of increase in import volume (i.e. the volume trigger) required to cross the Uruguay Round (UR) bound levels of tariffs and the extent to which the UR bound tariffs could be exceeded. Rather than try and reach a compromise the waters are being muddied by other new proposed instruments, which would just bore the reader. However, my feeling is that India will agree on a new trigger benchmark, and the US should show flexibility on these new issues.

The state of negotiations is unclear if not comatose at present. The technical work in the various committees appears to have moved forward with work on scheduling having progressed in parallel to the negotiations of commitments. Given the broad support to calibrated liberalisation accompanied by regulatory and institutional flanking policies amongst the Indian political establishment, India will not be the deal breaker. It will continue to sit on the high table as a deal maker rather than a deal breaker so long as its farm sector is protected, no commitment of a zero-for-zero industrial goods sector is insisted upon, commercially meaningful liberalisation is secured in services and a commitment to accommodate the UN Convention on Biodiversity in TRIPs is agreed to.

The writer is Secrtary General Cuts International

Atul Kaushik, Secretary General, CUTS International, Geneva contributed to this article

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][B]It’s a long, bumpy road for Nato
[/B][/SIZE]
It has been an arduous task for Nato to agree members to contribute troops for a cause the outcome of which remains mired in uncertainty

By Ather Naqvi
[/CENTER]
A tweet by Paolo Coelho reported in a newspaper the other day aptly sums up the recently-concluded Nato summit in Lisbon. Referring to Nato’s role in Afghanistan it says, "We can lose the war, but we can’t lose face". Precisely that seemed to be the sentiment among some of the 28 members of Nato, notable among them the US, that resolved, among other things, to bring relative peace to the troubled lands of Afghanistan by 2014, a deadline that already stands challenged by their formidable foe — the Taliban.

Lisbon Summit Declaration issued at the end of the summit charts out Nato’s "vision" for the next decade, Strategic Concept as they called it, aimed at defending its members "against full range of threats", including plans of developing a missile defence capability to counter possible attack of ballistic missiles.

One of the immediate and most challenging targets for Nato is Afghanistan where it plans to entrust Afghan forces with the task of dealing with the Taliban by year 2014. Given the level and speed of training of the Afghan forces that seems unlikely at the moment.

But if that happens, or anything near that, a possible pack up from southern Afghanistan is a likely outcome, especially for British troops. Here lies the crux. It has been an arduous task for Nato to agree members to contribute troops for a cause the outcome of which remains mired in uncertainty.

Britain has been eager to call it a day in southern parts of Afghanistan where most of its troops have been pitched against the Taliban in some of the world’s fiercest battles in recent times. Understandably, the battles in Afghanistan have cost Britain 345 troops since 2001, of which about one hundred have been killed this year alone. Still, the biggest sufferer in this respect is the US with more than 1200 death on the Afghan soil.

And it is not just Britain that wants to pull itself out of the Afghanistan quagmire, Germany, which has more than 4,900 troops in Afghanistan, has also joined the chorus of reducing its troops in 2012.

The summit follows months of preparations and discussion among a group of experts headed by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright that prepared recommendations for the new strategy in May this year. Despite all the reason and foresight that must have gone into preparing the new strategic vision, there is no guarantee that things would go according to plan.

While it looks unlikely at the moment that Nato would meet its deadline, US Vice President Joe Biden is hopeful about the future of ending US military involvement in Afghanistan, saying the withdrawal of US troops may begin earlier than 2014, "Look, beginning in the summer of 2011, we’re going to begin to transition."

But there is not much substance in what Biden is saying keeping in view US’s earlier stated commitments on the level of US engagement and withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The Obama administration has gone back and forth on the issue of withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan —from the surge of some 30,000 US troops in Afghanistan early last year to the now intimation of starting to leave Afghanistan from July 2011.

Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai seems to still pin some hope in Nato’s presence after the 2014 deadline. After returning home from NATO summit, Karzai told journalists at a news conference that "NATO as a partner would keep its presence beyond 2014 in Afghanistan but it would be limited".

On another level, much would depend on the contours of relations between Nato and Pakistan. If Nato continues to flout the international rules of military engagement as it did in the shape of violating Pakistan airspace last Tuesday for the second time, things would not be working for Nato.

Pakistan, as a non-Nato ally, has taken the commitments expressed by Nato members with a pinch of salt. It has cautioned against a withdrawal of Nato troops from Afghanistan without taking into account the "ground realities", meaning thereby that Afghan troops are adequately trained to take the Taliban head on.

Pakistan’s concern is understandable. It finds itself in the thick of a military operation against the Taliban in South Waziristan and is constantly under pressure from the US to expand the military offence to North Waziristan as well. If Nato troops, currently about 1,30,000, start leaving Afghanistan leaving behind a poorly trained Afghan army, it may not only destabilize the Karzai government but also cause the insurgency to spread its tentacles inside Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Perhaps it was this complexity of the situation that the Pentagon had to issue a statement acknowledging that the three neighbours of Afghanistan — Pakistan, Iran, and India — have an important role for bringing in peace and stability for Afghanistan.

Despite all the unanswered questions and tough time ahead the attendants of the summit dubbed the gathering as a "historic breakthrough". If Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is to be believed, "This summit will go down in history. The strategic approach is clear, and it shows we are all working on the same footing." Overly optimistic? Let’s see.

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][B]A lot remains to be done
[/B][/SIZE]
It is time the government establishes district-level bodies to implement laws and policies related to rehabilitation

By Irfan Mufti
[/CENTER]
The government and civil society are stills struggling with the rehabilitation and reconstruction work after the floods. The gigantic tasks need a clear vision, concerted efforts, long-term planning and uninterrupted implementation and finances.

Without compromising quality and consistency the objectives of rebuilding communities and reconstructing need coordinated actions from all key stakeholders. The preliminary assessment by institutions like The World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicate the urgency of the situation and lack of actions so far.

These assessment reports talk of volumes about the damages and identify the magnitude of efforts required to rebuild these communities. Funding still remains a challenge for the government, including a clear and focused plan for reconstruction and rebuilding.

Civil society groups and communities are already contemplating on coordinated planning for reconstruction, recovery and rehabilitation tasks. There is, however, a realisation that tasks of reconstruction and rebuilding rest with the government that seems unable to come up with coordinated plan or clear directions. The state of the economy also does not support government intentions for rebuilding.

The two-day Pakistan Development Forum held in Islamabad in November also failed to reach to any concrete conclusion or expected pledges of financial support. The meeting was a rare chance for government, civil society and donors to think outside the box for solutions to tackle some fundamental issues thrown up by the floods – one of the most devastating natural disasters this country has ever seen.

The Pakistan Development Forum has remained on the fringes of these problems, rather than boldly tackle them head-on. There were chances to grapple with wide-ranging reforms of existing structural problems about agriculture and the economy. One of the most important missed opportunities was a chance to address land reform, which has the potential to reduce inequality, put earning power into the hands of many landless women and end bonded-labour.

Although the meeting wasn’t billed as a pledging conference, still financial commitments were made to assist with Pakistan’s recovery. These pledges need to be grants that deliver new and substantial humanitarian aid quickly and effectively to the people on the ground that they are in desperate need of assistance.

With winter looming and almost seven million people without shelter, donors must not forget that many parts of Pakistan are still facing a serious emergency even though some areas are moving towards recovery.

There is also a welcoming emphasis on tax reform, especially given that only two per cent of Pakistanis pay tax. However, this should be a more equitable reform that does not put the burden onto the poorest, those who are least able to pay. Any price increase on basic necessities could put post-flood recovery out of reach for the very poor.

The governments’ call for debt cancellation from donors is also a right and fair demand. This year Pakistan will spend $2.9 billion on servicing foreign debts — $1 billion more than is being asked for by the UN appeal. The international community, civil society groups and the Government of Pakistan must ensure foreign debt cancellation is spent transparently on the post-flood response, targeting those hit hardest by the floods.

Civil society representatives at the forum, experts and donors recommended that it was an opportune time to introduce reforms that would have far reaching results, reforms that can enable communities to embark on long-term path of secure and sustainable solutions of problems. These problems are perpetual in nature and make the country vulnerable to disasters, economic shocks, political instability and social upheavals.

Civil society representatives attending the Development Forum also made clear and focused recommendations. These voices are not yet heard but the recommendations put forward are of far-reaching in nature and cover views of neglected and voiceless sections facing hardships in post flood situation. Most of the stakeholders felt that the relief efforts were inadequate and reflected a lack of proper management and preparedness and also show lack of clarity regarding a comprehensive national rehabilitation plan for flood affectees.

Some important and significant citizens charters were also presented. The views covered in charters are of women, non-Muslims, poor peasants and workers often sidelined at policy forums. These voices demand rehabilitation efforts shall follow the vision of a new Pakistan based on the framework of equality, rights, restoration of balance of power. The state shall strike a new social contract with the people that should balance peoples’ immediate development needs and human security entitlements. Reverting to the same old patterns of citizenship, infrastructures, economies and protection will hamper our ability to move forward as a nation.

Other important demands for resettlement and rebuilding exercise shall incorporate the will of the people regarding their choice of relocation, livelihood, and community set-ups. Donor-imposed products should not be imposed on people for resettlement and a focus on indigenous solutions for rebuilding shall be pursued.

Similar voices of reforms came from rural women assembly organized by Potohar Organization for Development Advocacy (PODA), Women Rights Association (WRA) demanding women to be on the centre stage in decision making processes of disaster management.

These forums demanded women with practical experience of disaster management should be engaged through various mechanisms ensuring that women are consulted in all processes of rehabilitation and reconstruction. These rural women made a right plea of allotment of 12 acres of land for women farmers affected by the floods. Special attention must be given to support women in resuming agricultural activities, and, providing training in cooperative farming, alternative cropping, kitchen gardening and preservation of vegetables and dairy products.

Provision of universal social protection, according to Article 38 of the Constitution; self registration of those affected by the flood for social protection; extension of ‘unemployment benefits’, ‘protection against disasters’, ‘old age benefits’, ‘disability allowance were other key points. Suggestions for decentralization of relief operations; complete autonomy for provincial and district-level disaster management machinery; and channeling resources for relief and rehabilitation through the provinces are also important.

On the financing for rebuilding and reconstruction the experts are suggesting massive budget reprioritization to address resource constraints to meet rehabilitation needs. This can include reduction in non-development expenditures of public sector and unnecessary allocation of funds for defense expenditure. It is also recommended that resource mobilization through directly taxing the rich by extending the tax net and also by seriously revisiting government land and buildings including GORs and Cantonment lands for those that are landless and need secured livelihood.

It is also important that assistance from foreign donors and international financial institutions must be in grants or donations and not in loans because in the case of the latter the burden of economic hardships ultimately affects women the most. In consideration of the unprecedented flood crisis that has affected most parts of Pakistan and has severely affected agriculture and economy, the foreign governments and international financial institutions should also write-off their previous loans to Pakistan.

Monitoring of engagement between all humanitarian actors including the government, UN, INGOs, and national and local NGOs to promote empowered partnership. The current unequal relationship is reflected in the issues of accountability, transparency, and resource-sharing that undermines the capacity of national assistance organizations.

Floods have also exposed serious lack of capacity of line departments and disaster management authorities. It is a right time that government shall establish strong district-level structures to implement laws and policies related to environment and disasters, build resource capacity of line agencies, draw new maintenance and design disaster resilient structures in the rural areas to replace the redundant post ’70s structures.

Revision in the educational system is also urgently needed enabling awareness, comprehension, capacity of citizens to deal with challenges, alternatives for livelihoods, promote social cohesion and responsibility, and discourage violence.

Considering the substantial economic and social challenges that Pakistan faces in the current times, it is important that government must take concrete steps to improve its economic recovery. Foundations must be laid to ensure increased reliance on mobilization of domestic resources, increased exports, and charging the economic cost to those that utilizes services deliveries provided by the Government. Going back to business as usual will not only increase vulnerability in future but will also weaken our capacity and strength to grow and flourish as a nation.

The writer is Deputy Chief of South Asia Partnership Pakistan and Global Campaigner

[email]irfanmufti@gmail.com[/email]

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]A case for debt cancellation[/SIZE][/B]

Cosmetic measures like brief rescheduling are simply not workable

By Abdul Khaliq Shah
[/CENTER]
Rich countries, creditors and lending institutions got together for the third time in as many months to discuss flood-ravaged Pakistan. As Islamabad hosted the Pakistan Development Forum (PDF) from 14/15 November, IFIs seemed determined to build up further pressure on Pakistan not to deviate from economic reforms.

The question that came under discussion was what the debt-ridden and flood-hit Pakistan could expect from the meeting. The government seems confused on the question of foreign debt. It is not ready to invoke the international protocols and precedents which are quite favourable to plead its case with creditors. Although government wants civil society to raise the question of debt cancellation at national and international forums it is hesitant to plead the case of foreign debt with the required level of commitment.

It is good that for first time a formal step at the state level was taken when the senate unanimously passed a resolution on November 3, 2010 urging the donor countries and IFIs to write off Pakistan’s debt. However, the very language of the draft resolution was apologetic, seeking forgiveness of the loans on charitable basis instead of demanding cancellation of debt as the right of Pakistan. This is an indicator that the government cannot take the risk of offending the IFIs. If the government is serious, there should be no problem to table a resolution in the National Assembly as well as in provincial assemblies for a wider discussion.

Presenting and passing resolutions is definitely not enough but at least that would be a first step in the right direction. Government will have to take a bold position on the question of foreign debt. The civil society has been demanding international donors and IFIs since long to cancel Pakistan’s debt. Now it is up to the government to utilize the ready support of the civil society to challenge the debt domination. The government did not raise the issue of debt at Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) meeting in Brussels earlier.

The need of the hour is Pakistan pleads its genuine case for debt cancellation with the donor community. While sharing reprioritisation of its development strategy with lenders; Pakistan should clearly tell the creditors and lending institutions to fulfill their global humanitarian responsibility by canceling Pakistan’s debt. Rescheduling or brief moratorium does not go far enough as it will not help mitigate Pakistan’s terrible economic woes. There should be a clear demand that the IMF-led structural adjustment programme and economic reforms should be suspended forthwith and any new funding should only be in the form of grants instead of new loans.

At this juncture, Pakistan should also demand multilateral and bilateral donors that Official Development Assistance (ODA) be transformed into grants in reparation in the light of the commitment made by the industrialized countries at the 1992 Rio conference. By all means, Pakistan has a solid case to seek major debt relief on technical, economic and moral grounds.

We are passing through hard times, our 20 million populations is affected. The first and foremost duty of the government is to address urgent needs of the people in need. We cannot afford to starve our people just to keep repayments to creditors. It is pertinent to mention that Pakistan spent a whopping $4.48 billion during the last financial year on its debt repayments and its budgeted debt repayment servicing for FY 2010-11 is more than double the funds governments from across the globe have pledged in grants for helping the flood-hit communities.

It is not something unusual that Pakistan would be seeking debt relief on genuine grounds. Haiti is a recent example. The country was offered relief after the 2010 earthquake when the IMF cancelled $366 million debt owed by Haiti. There are a number of examples when international loans were either repudiated or cancelled under extraordinary circumstances.

International pledges vis-à-vis the degree of destruction is just peanuts. The loss runs into billions of dollars. The government puts it as $43 billion. It will take years to rebuild Pakistan in the wake of lukewarm international response the woes of the flood hit communities are not going to be lessen. Under these circumstances, Pakistan cannot afford to continue debt servicing and needs all its available resources at hand to divert for relief and rehabilitation of the flood hit.

It is shameful that at this juncture of extraordinary humanitarian crisis, the international creditors and IFIs are not ready to offer Pakistan any relief. Rather, they are continuously pressing for repayments on debts. Instead of giving relief they are offering more loans. But the new lending will push the country’s debts to a new high and benefit only the lenders while ‘mortgaging’ the future of Pakistani generations.

Pakistan is already under a huge burden of $ 55 billion external debt, which includes Paris Club (bilateral debt) component of about $16 billion and multilateral component of slightly less than $32 billion (including the existing IMF loan of $8.077 billion). It has gone up by almost 50 percent from $36.40 billion in just four years. This debt burden will amount up to $ 73 billion in 2014, when the loans rescheduled during Musharraf regime, after 9/11, will be back in action. The debt stock, therefore, will continue to rise in the coming years at a faster pace than in the past.

Cosmetic measures like brief rescheduling are simply not workable. A major debt cancellation is only durable remedy. The situation not only calls for immediate announcement of significant debt relief by IFIs and donor countries but also demands of Pakistan government of taking extra-ordinary austerity steps.

We understand that demand of foreign debt cancellation lacks legitimacy unless we put our own house in order. For that the government will have to explore ways and means of immediate resource generation/reallocation, like the one-time flood tax, reduction in military budget, long-term reforms like agriculture reforms and direct taxation system.

Steps like immediate relief to the working classes by providing social security, progressive taxation system to bring the rich and affluent into tax net and fool proof mechanisms to ensure accountability and transparency of utilization of flood funds are perquisite for the government to prove its commitment with the cause it has been claiming. These kinds of much-needed measures would really helpful to make the case strong for Pakistan’s foreign debt cancellation.

The author is Focal person, Campaign for Abolition of Third World Debt (CADTM) Pakistan

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][B]Debt for development[/B][/SIZE]

Have we lost the opportunity to get a loan write-off?

By Tahir Ali
[/CENTER]
Pakistan seems to have wasted another opportunity to get its huge and foreign debt written off in the aftermath of devastating flash floods. The destruction caused by the war on terror and the 2005 earthquake had also provided reason to do just that but the then Musharraf-led regime was not able to get a loan write-off.

Rebuilding the country requires huge funds. Foreign donors say about $10billion are needed for reconstruction of the country but Pakistani authorities speak of over $40 billions for the purpose. If funds desperately needed for reconstruction and poverty alleviation are used for debt repayments, the already precarious poverty situation in the country could become even worse.

Though the UN has made an appeal for funding the reconstruction process, promises of loans are bigger than pledges for grants. While there is little money available locally wit no hope for an increase in revenue in the near future, donor agencies are also giving little in cash, the call for a total and unconditional debt cancellation is the only way out for Pakistan to be able to reconstruct the devastated region.

Debt write-off will provide Pakistan the much needed fiscal space. International aid agencies Oxfam, ONE International, professionals, political parties, left wing activists and foreign dignitaries, therefore, have been calling for cancellation of all of Pakistan’s external loans by international finance institutions (IFIs) and lending countries.

On November 14, addressing the Pakistan Development Forum, interior minister Rehman Malik asked the international community to waive $50 billion loans of Pakistan assuring that the waived foreign debt will be utilised in the fight against terrorism.

He said Pakistan had sustained losses of $140 billion in its war against terror and the world should realise that this war was being fought to protect it from the ravages of terrorism and for global peace. Before him, Oxfam and ONE international urged Pakistan’s $56 billion debt be dropped for the destruction caused by floods and the massive costs of relief and reconstruction.

In its petition to International Monetary Fund’s managing director, ONE International said, "Please help freeze Pakistan’s debt to ensure the country’s poorest people are able to recover from the devastating floods."

The government has restricted its internal borrowings to 10 percent of the previous year’s revenue collection and provincial borrowings at equivalent of six weeks’ expenditure of the previous year. But nothing of the sort has been done on the front of foreign debts.

France received more than 15 times, Japan more than five times, South Korea four times, and China three times money in debt payments from Pakistan this year as compared to their respective flood donations, Oxfam had calculated before the recent PDF meeting. Oxfam’s head of humanitarian campaigns Consuelo Lopez-Zuriaga had dubbed it madness and absurdity and urged that Pakistan’s debts should be written off so that reconstruction could be started in full swing.

Instead, addressing the PDF on November 15, federal finance minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh himself rubbished the idea and said that no wise person could demand debt write-off. He disowned the call for writing off over $58 billion Pakistan’s debt made by Rehman Malik, saying that asking for debt write-off was never an option before the government.

"Pakistan doesn’t want to become an international "pariah" by asking for debt write off. It is a grave issue with great consequences. This could negatively affect Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating and make it difficult for the country to raise money from the capital market (in future)," Dr Shaikh was quoted as saying.

He argued that most of the foreign debts were obtained from multilateral agencies like IMF, WB and ADB and Pakistan had made commitments to these institutions while taking the loans and being a sovereign nation Pakistan should fulfil its commitments.

Still, there are several laws, resolutions and international precedents that favour demands for a debt write-off. Natural calamities-like the one hitting Pakistan have given birth to the factor of "state of necessity". Article 25 of the International Law Commission stipulates that in case of "actual threat or a prospective peril to a state’s essential interests, the state is excused for not performing an international obligation."

A number of democratically elected governments — Argentine, Burkina Faso, Peru, Mexico, Paraguay, and Ecuador for example — have had refused debt payments on the basis of this rule. Pakistan can also decline to pay back its loans under this principle. According to a 1980 resolution by UN commission on international law, a state cannot be expected to close its schools, hospitals and universities, abandon public services to point of chaos, simply to have money to repay its foreign debts.

The IMF had cancelled all debt (US $ 268 million) of Haiti after the earthquake hit it earlier this year. The cancellation is given through the newly-established Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief Trust Fund, set up for this purpose. Pakistan hit by disaster can also resort to it.

Beginning in 1996, developed countries, under the Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, cancelled debt of $110 billion, $93 billion of which was in African countries. The countries agreed to channel their debt savings to poverty reduction. As a result, poverty reducing spending by HIPC-countries increased by the same amount by which their debt-service decreased. Success can be replicated in other countries like Pakistan where expenditure on health and education combined is less than two percent of the GDP.

Another argument that can be put forward is that all the foreign debts incurred by various regimes did not benefit the people of Pakistan. Argentine’ economy was badly hit by economic crisis after 2001. So its president announced the biggest unilateral suspension of foreign debt of more than $80b.

Pakistan’s current debt-to-GDP ratio is around 62 percent, exceeding the 60 percent limit set under the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act. Pakistan is fast approaching to the debt-to-GDP ratio of 80 percent, which according to WB is default stage. Pakistan’s external debt has doubled in the past four years alone and the government is currently spending more than four times as much per person on servicing external debt than on healthcare.

Latest loans from IMF ($7bn) WB ($1bn) and ADB ($2bn) will further increase Pakistan’s present foreign debt of $56bn. Its external debt will go up to $73bn in 2015-16, as debts that were rescheduled after 9/11 in return for Pakistan’s support in the war on terror are effective again. The ratio of debt-servicing will also jump up as a result. This may lead an already debt-trapped Pakistan to a worst economic crisis. It is currently paying on average over $3bn on debt-servicing per annum. It means payment of Rs710 million a day and Rs30mn every hour to lenders.

Pakistan’ inability to increase its direct taxes and improve upon its balance of trade and save money by adopting austerity measures and curtailing the burgeoning current expenditure has left it with no choice but to seek costlier foreign debts or over burden the existing tax-payers. The government has virtually eliminated subsidies that were offered on wheat flour, sugar and edible ghee, power and gas and other services and commodities inflicting heavy burdens on the household budgets countrywide.

The debtor country has also to hire costly consultants and import costlier machinery for the projects and other materials from the lender states, which reduces the net loans. It is said that almost 85 per cent of the US aid goes back to the US. While our governments are also to blame for the ever-increasing foreign debt, the IFIs and lender countries are also equally responsible for the catastrophic situation.

A debt audit commission should be established to make an inquiry into all foreign loans and their use. The government should restart a national self reliance scheme for self-sufficiency and getting rid of the debt burden. Once this debt cancellation or postponement is achieved, the money saved thereby should be used for reconstruction and poverty reduction.

[url]http://tahirkatlang.wordpress.com[/url]

[CENTER][B]Free trade, anyone?
[/B]
Provisions in the US’s FTAs rob countries of their sovereign right to give preference to local firms

By Zubair Faisal Abbasi[/CENTER]

In Pakistan, there is no dearth of people who believe that integration in global economy through removal of protective tariffs and dismantling of regulatory regimes, meaning free trade and free markets, can create a turnaround in economy. They argue that having integrated with bigger economies such as US and EU through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) will do us a number of favours. They say, firstly, it will increase foreign direct investment (FDI), secondly, it will ward off fears of isolation through trade diplomacy and, thirdly, it will give a push to exports from agriculture and industrial outputs.

Such perceptions have been promoted by international development policy experts through donors from outside as well as ambitious national policy makers who seek attractive jobs with international financial institutions. However, there is a need to look into the international experience before jumping onto conclusions and start making efforts to sign an FTA with any country.

There is a need to go for a comprehensive evaluation of FTAs which Pakistan has signed with China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and the ones it is trying to negotiate with other countries and regions such as the US and EU. The figures shown on balance of payment accounts give us a number of reasons to dig deep into the realities of international trade and see how Pakistan can actually use trade and industrial policy instruments to move up the ladder of value chains and global production networks.

Research studies around bilateral and regional trade agreements, specially the ones undertaken by the Third World Network show that there is no conclusive evidence that FTAs cause an increase in foreign direct investment, especially investment for new projects called green field FDI. The dynamics of FDI are much complex, which range from geo-strategic reasons to the availability of locational and cost-reduction advantages. In the case of Pakistan, there seems to be an interesting relationship between change in geostrategic situations and increase in flow of funds alongside regime changes from civil to military.

Most of the FTAs show that agreements carry WTO-plus provisions such as Singapore Issues (i.e., government procurement, investment, and competition) which were dropped from the WTO agenda during the Doha Round. In fact, countries seeking FTA are subjected to full reciprocity and national treatment (no discrimination between local and foreign firm).

One can imagine how a developing country such as Pakistan can compete with firms from the US without getting out of business. In addition, the state is made unable to regulate the investment patterns of foreign firms making much of investment a footloose enterprise. The provisions in the US-FTAs also rob countries of their sovereign right to give preference to local firms which employ local people under government procurement. This has serious implications of countries such as Pakistan which need to generate growth stimulus by government procurement in backward regions such as in Balochistan and Southern Punjab.

A drastic feature of FTAs relate to dispute settlement in which foreign firms can take the state to dispute resolution in international courts of justice sending ‘chill effects’ in the government of less-developed countries.

On exports, there is no conclusive evidence that exports actually increase from less-developed economies to the more-developed ones. There are many reasons for this tendency. Primarily, agricultural commodities are heavily subsidised in the rich regions of EU and the US. Negotiations under FTAs, on removal of such subsidies from agriculture are not possible owing to political factors in big economies. Ultimately, most of the products from less-developed countries cannot compete for increased market access owing to price differentials.

As a result of this, subsidised products from the US and EU enter the markets of less-developed countries which causes decline in prices (consumer welfare?) and people in less-developed countries go out of business. For example, after NAFTA, about 2 million rural jobs in Mexico have gone while serious import surge (in some cases 500 percent) has been witnessed.

After having seen the international experience, it is important that parliamentary oversight is increased in Pakistan. The Standing Committees on trade and commerce, both in the lower and upper houses of the parliament, should pay serious heed to the vision and ideology which officials in ministries are following. Pakistan People’s Party and coalition partners should not fall a prey to the jargon of those neo-liberals who are entrenched in their ranks. They should make concerted efforts to safeguard interests of the people working in farms, industries, and services sector of Pakistan.

The writer is Executive Director of Institute for Development Initiatives, Islamabad [url]www.idi.org.pk[/url]

[B][CENTER][SIZE="4"]Lacking disaster

management skills[/SIZE]
[/B]
Will government departments be able to adequately respond to climate change in future?

By Shakeel Ahmed[/CENTER]

Floods have caused a devastating impact on national economic and social fabric of Pakistan. Government of Pakistan, United Nations and its agencies, INGOs, National NGOs, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and others are busy in calculating and estimating the loss — economic, social and environmental.

Now the government and its partners are planning to move ahead from rescue and relief to rehabilitation. A numbers of strategies are on the table to pave the way for focused and targeted rehabilitation work. The government and United Nations are trying to secure sufficient resources to complete the daunting challenge.

At this moment, the government lacks the resources due to weak economy and continuous war on terror. At the same time, the government is also facing problems to secure funds from the international community and it seems it will impact the speed and spectrum of government’s interventions.

Apart from financial resources, recent floods in Pakistan also initiated the debate that either Pakistan has a well-managed, operated and organized institutional mechanism to face natural calamities.

Pakistan has created a number of departments, e.g. Flood Commission of Pakistan, National Crisis Cell, etc, and now National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) of Pakistan. The NDMA was created after 2005 earthquake and before 2005, there no other agency to deal with huge disasters.

The purpose of creation of these departments and agencies was to provide timely rescue and relief services and minimize the impact of disasters in different areas. However, these departments and agencies could not deliver according to the perceived objectives. Recent floods further exposed the entire system of disaster management in Pakistan.

The NDMA has produced a very good document which describes a good strategy to deal with disasters. It covers earthquake, floods, droughts, etc, and talks about different ways to handle disasters. However, there is lack of workable plan and, most importantly, required skills to deal with disasters. NDMA spread its network to district level however necessary resources are lacked at national level.

The flood commission of Pakistan was created in January 1977 to tackle the issue of flood at the national level in the best way. The flood cell was created in the Flood Commission to handle the flood solely and take effective measures to mitigate impact of floods.

The Commission was also entrusted with the responsibility to prepare plan and workable strategies to prevent or minimize the impact of floods. Flood cell was further strengthened with presence of Civil Engineering Cell, Dams Safety Councils.

Federal Flood Commission (FFC) never delivered according to the expectations and perceived objectives. Floods have badly exposed the poor status and performance of FFC. During floods there was very limited presence of FFC. It was the responsibility of FFC to ensure maintenance of levies to control or minimize the impact of floods.

Coordination among different tiers was altogether missing, although the prime objective of creation of FFC was national coordination. Story of other departments and agencies, e.g., emergency relief cell, national crises management cell, etc, is not different.

Pakistan ranks high on vulnerability level to climate change. It is predicted that natural disasters, e.g. floods, droughts, etc, will increase in number and the spectrum would be large. Now the most pertinent question is will these agencies and departments be able to manage climate change-related disasters in future? In the present scenario, a simple answer is a big no.

Climate Change will increase the frequency and severity of disasters in future. Pakistan will be facing more disasters and extent of impact would be higher. Agriculture is major source of livelihood for majority of people and climate change is posing major threat to agriculture. Flood in 2010 also destroyed and damaged physical infrastructure, industry sources of communication etc.

In addition to that there is also question, why in the presence of these agencies and departments Pakistan is not able to manage the disasters, in any form. Why the role of Pakistani Media and NGOs is is more prominent than Government’s dedicated agencies and departments?

Disasters Management related institutions lack proper planning and future strategies. For example, there is no evacuation strategy with any department and if there is any strategy that is only on papers. Evacuation strategy needs proper layout of safe sites, safe passages for timely shifting and rescue, dedicated and well trained staff etc.

In Pakistan, no department has any safe sites, safe passages for timely shifting and rescue, dedicated and well trained staff etc. Recent disasters, e.g. earthquake 2005 and flood 2010, are prime examples. Pakistan Army was only organized institute which helped government in rescue and relief activities. Army also helped the government after the 2005 earthquake rehabilitation work and now is working with government in rehabilitation work for flood affected people. Civil society and media are also playing a major role.

As it was aforementioned that Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change, so the natural calamities especially the floods, droughts will increase in intensity and frequency. Therefore, now government has to revisit its departments and agencies to cope the challenges of disasters. Planning and strategies should be shifted from the conventional practices to innovative practices. Following steps can be taken to prepare and cope with the challenge of predictable and unpredictable disasters.

First, develop policy at national level for coordination but transferred powers at district or tehsil level for implementation and proper execution of policies and activities. Also provide the essential infrastructure, financial resources and skilled manpower to perform this job. Emergency decision making power should also be transferred at local level.

Second, map the whole country into different zones on the basis of disaster vulnerability. After zoning the country local authorities, dedicated for management, should be strengthened and provided necessary resources. Third, local authorities should prepare all the plans e.g. preparedness, evacuation plan, mapping of city, identification temporary and permanent shelters, medical assistance, food assistance etc.

These are few and simple steps which government can take and revamp the system and make it more efficient. However, it requires political and bureaucratic will to devise and implement right policies to cope the disasters. There are a number of international strategies and plans are available which can be replicated in Pakistan. California State of USA has a very good plan and implementation strategy which can be replicated in Pakistan. California has close geographically similarities with Pakistan, so it will make our work easy.

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Beyond political opportunism[/SIZE]

Perhaps a valid critique of RGST is that mechanisms to implement this bill are weak, which leads to issues of tax evasion and corruption

By Raza Rumi[/CENTER]

While Pakistan’s policy debate hovers around political machinations and power configurations, the neglected issue of economic recovery remains central to the viability of country’s future. We are sandwiched between two economic giants who are growing despite the global recession. China has eradicated absolute poverty after decades of high growth rates and effective social policies. India’s GDP growth rate is projected to be 9 percent this year. Both India and China have also improved tax administration, enhanced their revenue generation capacity and implemented economic reforms, which are likely to result in long-term sustainable growth rates. India needs years to catch up with its issues of hunger, poverty and inequity, but its progress appears to be in the right direction.

What have we done to ourselves? We have no consensus on economic reform and tackling poverty. We are living with the lowest growth rates of our history and perennial inflation with little prospects of change. Had it not been for Pakistan’s resilient population, its formidable remittances and the mammoth black economy, we would have faced an economic collapse and resultant, massive social unrest. Having said this, inflation has eaten into the purchasing power of the population. The fixed-income groups and the poor in Pakistan have suffered the most.

Inflation

The causes of the rising price levels are manifold: the increasing budget deficit, the withdrawal of subsidies, the manipulative behaviour of hoarders in the commodities market and excessive borrowing of the government to finance its operations. The government had borrowed almost a quarter of the total money supply so as to finance its needs for a short period of five months. This is illustrative of a textbook case of the excessive printing of money leading to inflation. All these factors make one thing clear: it is misgovernance that is actually leading to inflation.

The rise of the informal economy in our case has also wreaked havoc on the stability of pricing mechanisms. If there was ever a need of accelerating the documentation of economy, it is now.

This is perhaps why the introduction of RGST is a much-needed reform. Admittedly, the RGST will cause a one-off round of inflationary pressure given the indirect nature of the tax. However, the reality is that the opposition to RGST is being mounted in the name of the poor by powerful lobbies. RGST reforms have caused uproar in the business community, fuelled by sections of the print and electronic media. While many politicians have run with hares and hunted with the hounds on the issue of RGST, only a few have debated the actual nature of the reforms. Unfortunately, this issue has turned into another populist rhetoric platform, standing on which politicians and political actors are likely to gain some short-term mileage.

The ‘exemptions’ culture

Pakistan’s power culture celebrates exemptions: from standing in a queue at the airports to respecting traffic lights. Similarly, the rich and the powerful have created a web of tax-exemptions. The RGST package will withdraw many of these state favours. There are no new taxes being implemented in the form of the RGST. While pegging the rate at 15 percent — brought down from 17 percent in many cases — only the exemptions are being withdrawn largely sparing the food items.

The list of proposed withdrawal of sales tax exemptions forwarded to the government by the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR) includes computer software, aircrafts, ships, defense stores, tractors, bulldozers, live animals and live poultry, vegetable ghee, cattle feed and fruit juices among others.

Still, there are a few exemptions that are being retained. The proposed list of retained exemptions include wheat, pulses, vegetables, peas, newspapers, books, ambulances, fire-fighting trucks, artificial parts of the body and glucoses testing equipments. Relief goods will also be exempted as authorized by the government.

It is nothing short of falsifying facts when various TV anchors lament the prospective increase in prices of vegetables, etc, and blame it all on the RGST.

Why do we need the RGST?

It is true that being an indirect tax, the withdrawal of exemptions in various commodities will lead to a rise in prices but at the same time it will also expedite the much-needed documentation of the economy. Let’s face it. We have to increase our revenues in order to control the burgeoning deficit, which has already been contributing to rising price levels. Inflation is a real issue regardless of the RGST. No doubt, the placement of progressive taxes is the best way to go but in order to increase the tax base and to document the different sectors of the economy at every stage of the supply chain, the reforms in the general sales tax were inevitable.

According to the finance minister, in total Rs40 billion will be generated from the 10 percent flood surcharge, while Rs25 billion will be raised from the withdrawal of GST exemptions on goods and services. RGST will also increase the number of taxpayers if properly implemented. This will lead to an increase in our tax-to-GDP ratio, which is unfortunately one of the lowest in the world.

Perhaps a valid critique of RGST is that mechanisms to implement this bill are weak, which leads to issues of tax evasion and corruption.

Beyond RGST

If RGST is passed in the National Assembly, the government will have to fix the issues of capacity and institutional mechanisms.

Suffice it to say, bolder steps will be required in the future to expand the revenue base of the economy. This would include increasing the agricultural sector taxes. The problem with this sector is that most legislators in the provincial assemblies represent the landowning classes. Furthermore, provinces have little capacity to implement an effective tax regime. But this should not undermine the much-needed reform and debate on this must continue. However, to present agricultural income tax as a substitute for RGST is a fallacy at best.

At the same time, Pakistan would need to manage expenditures, especially on the current side (administration, defence and debt-servicing) and find an alternative paradigm for development spending, which has been a victim of contractors’ greed and the major source of rents and malfeasance.

Political opportunism

As mentioned above, the coalition partners have used the RGST as a tool to bolster their position within the power matrix. The Awami National Party (ANP) is the only political party that has supported the PPP in imposing the RGST.

The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam, (PML-Q) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) have rejected the RGST. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) (JUI-F) sits on the fence and is gaining brownies in the form of the chairmanship of the Council for Islamic Ideology and perhaps more in the days to come. The MQM chief Altaf Hussain has repeatedly called for taxing the landlords instead of imposing RGST. PML-N, PML-Q and JUI-F have also reiterated the need to check corruption within the current tax collection system instead of burdening the common man through the proposed reforms.

The Bill was passed through the Senate as the recommendations by the Senate Standing Committee on RGST were approved on the 26th November 2010. The Committee made 15 recommendations to the GST Bill 2010 and four recommendations as an amendment to the Finance Bill 2010. It proposed exemptions for food items, medicines and stationary for education purposes. PML-Q’s walkout helped the government. Intriguingly, Ishaq Dar, a senator belonging to PML-N, a party that has been a vociferous opponent of the RGST bill, signed the bill in the Finance committee.

The RGST Bill is likely to be tabled in the National Assembly on 18th December 2010, where recommendations from the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance will be debated.

It is unclear whether the government will be able to get the bill passed through the NA. However, the government will try to negotiate with its recalcitrant allies, i.e. MQM and JUI-F to seek their support. Otherwise, there are signs that PPP has entered into a pact with PML-Q for tacit support. Already, a PML-Q MNA has been appointed as the Chairman ERRA and the process of including PML-Q legislators in the Cabinet might continue. PML-Q could simply walk out of the NA proceedings, which will provide the government with a majority at the time of the voting.

Ideally speaking, given the importance of this reform, the federal government ought to restart dialogue with PML-N. Given that the Punjab province is being ruled by PML-N, such a course of action will augment political stability. If we want to revive the economy and improve our long-term prospects, hard reforms will need to be taken. RGST may be the first step in this direction. Otherwise, we will continue to be a rentier state, dependent on the global strategic games and life-support mechanisms such as the IMF.

The writer is a policy adviser and writer based in Lahore. He blogs at [url]www.razarumi.com[/url]. Email: [email]razarumi@gmail.com[/email]

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Condemning cartels[/SIZE][/B]

On World Competition Day, governments in developing countries need to be reminded to join in and prosecute international cartels

By Pradeep S Mehta
[/CENTER]
On 5th December, 1980, the United Nations adopted the international standard for competition laws under what is called the United Nations Set of Multilateral Principles and Rules for the Control of Restrictive Business Practices, better known in the international community as the UN Set on Competition Policy.

This Set has guided a large number of developing countries to draft and adopt new competition laws. From about 30 countries in 1995, today over 120 countries have adopted a new law or improved their existing competition law, and few more are in the queue.

Recently, the Set was reviewed at Geneva at the UNCTAD’s 6th Review Conference on the Set in the midst of enthusiastic delegates from over 100 developed and developing countries, which was also celebrated as the 30th anniversary of the Set.

To mark this anniversary, a proposal was mooted to observe 5th December the World Competition Day by the International Network of Civil Society on Competition (INCSOC), an international coalition of 164 competition practitioners, civil society organisations, researchers and legislators spread across 66 countries.

Large number of delegates at the conference supported the idea and have agreed to celebrate the World Competition Day in their own countries on Sunday 5th, or Monday 6th being the next working day. Incidentally, many countries are already celebrating National Competition Days, such as European Union member states, Brazil, Zambia etc and other countries are also considering doing so.

It was also agreed that the day be used to raise awareness and rally common people around the issue of air cargo cartels which have been causing serious harm to consumers and the economy.

While cartels are most pernicious of all anticompetitive practices and are very difficult to detect and investigate for their inherently secretive nature, the task gets more difficult in aviation industry because it operates across borders. However, once one airline was caught it had a domino effect around the world.

A bit late, but the EU did act on it by slapping one of its biggest fines in history on eleven airlines totalling 799.4mn euros ($1.1bn) for running a global cargo cartel, which manifested itself through coordinated action on surcharges for fuel and security between 1999 and 2006. Those penalised included Air France-KLM, British Airways, Cargolux, SAS, Singapore Airlines, Air Canada, Qantas, LAN Chile, Martinair and Japan Airlines. Lufthansa was pardoned because they spilled the beans.

The prosecution by the EU was not the first for most of the airlines, as earlier the US Department of Justice, had also found that some of the world’s biggest airlines had conspired between 2000 and 2006 to fix cargo prices. In 2009, three cargo airlines in the US, agreed to pay fines totalling $214mn for the same crime. In this case, 15 airlines were prosecuted and a total fine of $1.6bn was imposed. In addition, three senior air cargo industry executives agreed to serve jail terms. This concerted practice to fix cargo rates started in 2001 and continued till February 2006. Before this, in 2008, four airlines, including Air France-KLM and Cathay Pacific, had to pay fines in the US totalling $504mn for their roles in a criminal conspiracy to fix surcharges on air cargo shipments.

The Japanese Fair Trade Commission, in 2009, was also reported to have notified more than ten companies that they would be fined about ¥10 billion for operating a cartel for international air cargo fees. This year, the South Korean Fair Trade Commission imposed a total fine of 119,544 million won (nearly US$100mn) on 19 airlines for their conspiracy to levy fuel surcharges and continued to raise surcharge rates for air cargo to-and-from Korea between 1999 and 2007. The South African and New Zealand authorities are also investigating similar cartels which affected their markets.

Cartels in the air cargo industry should be of concern to all stakeholders as they have a serious negative impact on efforts towards economic development and poverty reduction in developing countries. A study done for the International Air Cargo Association and Air Cargo Forum by John Kasarda and others in 2006 showed that the air cargo industry is responsible for transporting about 29.9 percent of all international trade, with an annual value of $2.7tn.

The study also showed that Korean Air, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific and China Airlines were the largest combination passenger-cargo carriers in terms of capacity. American Airlines and United Airlines were found to be providing substantial cargo service even without use of dedicated freighters, while airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France and KLM had broad geographic coverage, servicing more than 50 countries and British Airways offered cargo service to over 100 countries.

It is, therefore, very alarming to see that almost all the major players in the air cargo market were part of a cartel, and one shudders at the impact in terms of overcharges that consumers across the globe suffered due to the cartel.

The air cargo transport also specializes in high value to weight products (e.g. minerals), perishable goods, emergency deliveries and products requiring high security. Mostly, air lines are used by developing countries to transport either finished goods for resale or raw materials for value addition to produce finished goods. Most of these products find their way into the value chain of most finished products; hence cartelizing their transportation has serious multiplier effects on the prices of the final products.

Developing countries are not spared from the impact of the cartel as there is significant amount of air cargo trade going on in these regions, a proportion of which is handled by members of the cartel. The proportion of exports shipped by air from less developed regions such as Africa and some parts of Asia exceeds 10 percent.

What is, therefore, apparent from this is that competition authorities in developing countries also need to be in a position to join in and prosecute such international cartels once they are discovered. Being hamstrung by resources and perhaps their own weak laws, competition authorities in developing countries should innovate and use various means at their disposal in handling international anticompetitive practices. This could include initiating and enlarging informal cooperation between authorities in the countries targeted by the cartel. The first World Competition Day on December 5th should be the D-Day for launching a global crusade.



The writer is Secretary General of CUTS International and Chairman of INCSOC

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Human angle
[/SIZE]
Getting to the victims and helping them is what counts, whoever and wherever they may be

By Zaman Khan[/CENTER]

The youthful Lars Oberhaus has been in Lahore as Head of the International Committee of Red Cross (ICRC) since February 2009, a stay he claims he has enjoyed helping people in real need of rescue and assistance in many parts of the country. Born in 1976 and raised in Germany, Oberhaus holds an MA in International Relations and Political Economy from the University of Aberdeen, Scotland (2000) and an MSc in Security Studies from the Department of International Politics, University of Wales, Aberystwyth (2001). Prior to joining the ICRC in 2004, Lars worked for Reuters in Geneva and Frankfurt. German being his native language, he also speaks English and French, and knows Latin. Oberhaus is married with one child. He has worked in many courtiers, including Afghanistan, Sudan, and Palestine in the field of humanitarian assistance from 2004 to the present day. The News on Sunday happened to sit with Oberhaus the other day and talked about his experiences of working in different regions around the globe.

TNS: Why did you choose to join ICRC?

LO: I had the curiosity about the world and the determination to help people, less fortunate than myself. As a student of global politics, I have a natural interest in humanitarian matters.

The News on Sunday (TNS): Where were you born and educated?

Lars Oberhaus (LO): I was born in 1976 in Hanover, Germany. My father is a civil engineer and my mother an artist. I was raised and went to school in Frankfurt and Main. I attended graduate school in Scotland and Wales. A defining event during my childhood was the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, a great relief!

TNS: How do you compare your experience as a journalist with working in ICRC?

LO: I was working for a financial media firm and that was very different compared to journalism. The key difference is confidentiality. The ICRC seeks to address issues discretely and directly with the actors involved, without publicity. Working for the ICRC can also be very hands-on and intense. Getting to the victims and helping them is what counts, whoever and wherever they may be.

TNS: What is the mandate of ICRC?

LO: The mandate of the ICRC is to help people affected by armed conflicts and other situations of violence. This comprises humanitarian protection and assistance in emergency situations and promoting respect for International Humanitarian Law or IHL. The mandate is based on the 1949 Geneva Conventions, their Additional Protocols and the Statutes of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement. The ICRC is strictly neutral and independent, never taking sides and focused only on the needs of victims.

TNS: In which fields ICRC has been involved?

LO: The main areas of activity are visiting detainees, protection of civilians, reuniting families, ensuring economic security, water and habitat, health, cooperation with the National Red Cross or Crescent Society and building respect for International Humanitarian Law. The ICRC is active in 80 countries worldwide, with a global budget of 1 billion Swiss Francs. The biggest operations are in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Congo and Sudan.

TNS: What role ICRC has played in flood-affected areas in Pakistan?

LO: The ICRC’s mandate is related to man-made disasters, but due to the scale of floods the ICRC launched a major relief operation in all four provinces and FATA. To date, the ICRC, in cooperation with the Pakistan Red Crescent Society, has distributed food rations and relief items to almost a million people, including 200,000 in south Punjab. In KP, the ICRC has treated over 4000 patients in diarrhea treatment centers. In KP and FATA, the ICRC has been helping to restore water supply for 100,000 people. The flood relief budget is 70 million Swiss Francs, bringing the total 2010 budget to 130 million Swiss Francs, the biggest ICRC operation in the world. Our work is conducted in close partnership with the Pakistan Red Crescent Society, to whom we provide substantial material and technical support.

TNS: In what other fields the ICRC has been working?

LO: The ICRC has been assisting people affected by fighting in KP and FATA. The ICRC operates a surgical hospital for wounded patients in Peshawar and supports medical facilities in FATA with medicines, materials and training. We are also helping to enhance mass casualty preparedness by conducting war-surgery seminars and emergency room triage training. We have been visiting detainees in Pakistan and abroad. The ICRC helps Pakistani detainees in Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay to stay in touch with their families by transmitting letters, or by organizing phone and video calls for the exchange of personal and family news.

TNS: Has the ICRC worked for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)?

LO: Yes. Last year, in cooperation with the PRCS, we set up camps and assisted some 1 million IDPs from Swat as well as host communities in the Malakand division. After their return, the ICRC provided farmers with seeds and fertilizers to get started again. The ICRC has also been assisting 200,000 IDPs from FATA in Hangu.

TNS: You have worked in Palestine, Afghanistan, Kabul. Kandhahar, and Sudan (Darfur). What have been your experiences?

LO: In Darfur, I was part of a large relief operation in a very remote area, which included for example providing safe water to thousands of IDPs and carrying out measles and polio vaccinations in areas where government workers were afraid to go. In Afghanistan, I was in charge of the visits to detainees in the US detention facility in Bagram Airfield. In the Occupied Palestinian Territories, my role was to work with farmers to ensure that they maintained access to their land where the so-called West Bank Barrier deviates from the green line. These were all complex and meaningful assignments. I am grateful for all those experiences.

TNS: How do you see your stay in Pakistan?

LO: I arrived in February 2009. Pakistan has been going though a tough period since then. There was the fighting in Swat and 2 million IDPs and civilians were targeted in blasts in the major cities, including Lahore. This summer the floods occurred. The ICRC was involved in mitigating the humanitarian consequences of all these events. I am glad I could play a role in this (humanitarian assistance) and be useful.

TNS: What’s your personal experience of living in Lahore?

LO: Lahore is full of wonders. I have a very good experience living here and have made good friends. I wish to thank Lahoris for their outstanding hospitality.

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]A circus of contradictions[/SIZE]

The WikiLeaks ‘revelations’ appear to confirm the impression that Washington truly does call all the shots in Pakistan.

By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar[/CENTER]

Mao Tse-Tung wrote prolifically on many subjects that are nowadays considered anachronistic. Indeed, the vast majority of the young and educated may never have any exposure to Mao’s ideas, notwithstanding Pakistani rulers’ exhortations about our ‘special relationship’ with the People’s Republic. In the wake of the never-ending scandal that is the WikiLeaks phenomenon, I believe it is necessary to revisit one of Mao’s enduring themes — and that of Marxism in general — so as make sense of the media frenzy that has erupted around us.

Marxist philosophy is premised on the notion that social conflict — and particularly class inequality — is the driving force of history. More generally, Marxist praxis entails identification of the prevailing contradictions in any given society and an appropriate politics on the basis of what are principal and secondary contradictions. Mao distinguished between antagonistic and non-antagonistic contradictions — the former when pushed through to their logical conclusion produce revolutionary transformation whereas the latter can be managed judiciously.

Certain Marxist analyses of Pakistani state and society have oversimplified the extent to which the ruling establishment has maintained a consensus over time; even non-antagonistic contradictions have been left unacknowledged. In particular, Pakistani governments have too often been depicted as virtual puppets of imperialist powers. The WikiLeaks ‘revelations’ appear to confirm the impression that Washington truly does call all the shots in Pakistan.

To the contrary, I believe that what emerges from the thousands of diplomatic cables that have the global media foaming at the mouth is a complex and contradictory picture which precludes overly simplistic assertions. This is not at all to suggest that empire does not exercise its influence within Pakistan or that successive regimes in this country have been meaningfully autonomous from the machinations of imperialism or the broader effects of the capitalist world-economy. But the relationship has ebbed and flowed and recognition of the various ups and downs is necessary to understand the non-antagonistic contradictions between imperialism and Pakistan’s establishment, the non-antagonistic contradictions within our ruling circles, and the antagonistic contradictions between the Pakistani people and the global-domestic structure of power.

For the best part of our history the combination of generals, bureaucrats, landlords, industrialists, mullahs and co-opted segments of the middle class has willfully served the geo-strategic interests of the American Empire. But at the same time, different governments have maintained varying levels of commitment to their own parochial interests, which at any given historical conjuncture, may or may not correspond fully to the interests of our imperial patrons. So, for example, Ayub Khan publicly offered Pakistani territory and troops to the United States suggesting that there was no need for Americans to come all the way out east when Pakistanis could do the job for them. However, the same Ayub Khan assiduously cultivated a relationship with China following the Sino-Indian border dispute in 1962; this policy flew in the face of Washington’s dictates and reflected how even the most shameless of imperialist touts could antagonize his patrons. In a very different way, throughout his tenure Zulfikar Ali Bhutto decried imperialist conspiracies, yet made sure never to seriously annoy Washington. Bhutto was known to be quite proud of renewing the supply of arms from the Pentagon and famously arranged the secret meeting between US Secretary of State Kissinger and Chou-en-Lai.

But perhaps the most important relationship that needs to be understood is the largely autonomous one between the Pakistani Army and Washington. For the best part of the last two decades, the army has played a public relations card that positions it in opposition to "American interference" in Pakistan’s sovereign affairs. In practice of course, the army has been the single biggest beneficiary of American largesse both in bygone eras and in the so-called "Age of Terror". GHQ’s efforts to distinguish itself from the "soul-selling" politicians reflects only its desire to deflect criticism of the increasingly shameless manner in which imperialist policies are operationalized by our very own national saviours.

In much the same way as WikiLeaks cables shed light on the actually existing relationship between empire and our rulers, they also make clear how consistent — and sometimes even acute — tensions notwithstanding, mainstream political parties and the military establishment share a basic commitment to an exclusive political and economic system. There can be no doubt that the long-standing mistrust between our mainstream politicians and the GHQ has far from dissipated, and that there is an undeniable contradiction between the two. But Mao would suggest that this contradiction is non-antagonistic insofar as our elected rulers are only marginally more progressive than the men in khaki when it comes to basic structures. Of course, those of us who are unequivocal defenders of this flawed political process maintain that successive military adventures into the political realm have actually helped to insulate our elitist parties from substantive organic changes from below.

This brings us to the antagonistic contradiction. In the final analysis, WikiLeaks will precipitate nothing more than a sensationalist media orgy. Indeed, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the leak of diplomatic cables is part of some well-thought out imperialist conspiracy (although such assertions are best left to the dream world of the religious right).

In a time and place when genuinely anti-establishment and anti-imperialist forces were organized enough to take advantage of this de-masking of our rulers’ antics, we might even have believed that the recluse Australian founder of the website was committed to substantive political and social change. But the fact of the matter is that, in contrast to times past, diplomatic cables dealing with Pakistan in this day and age make no mention of left-wing intellectuals, working-class movements or student rebels. Those of us who go beyond sloganeering have always known that contradictions within the ruling class are ever-present. But to take advantage of these non-antagonistic contradictions and foment systemic rupture requires the working people of this country, whose contradiction with the establishment and dominant social forces is of an antagonistic nature, to be mobilized and armed with an appropriate political strategy. WikiLeaks is hardly interested in fomenting such things.

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Constitutional and

economic questions
[/SIZE]
Under the 18th Amendment, federal government does not have the right to collect RGST on behalf of the provinces

By Huzaima Bukhari and Dr. Ikramul Haq[/CENTER]

Senator Mian Raza Rabbani of Pakistan People’s Party deserves kudos for pointing out in the Upper House that after the passage of the 18th Amendment, Parliament cannot debate or pass any law providing for sales tax on services as it is a provincial subject. He categorically opined, "First, the provincial assemblies must pass the GST Bill and also adopt a resolution. It is only then that the federation could enact it".

The objection raised by Senator Raza Rabbani was valid as section 8 of the proposed law (The General Sales Tax Bill 2010) reads as under: "8. Administration and collection of Provincial Sales Tax — (1) Where a Provincial Sales Tax law authorises the board to administer, regulate, and collect the Provincial Sales Tax imposed under that law, the Board shall, subject to the conditions specified in that law, collect, regulate and administer the Provincial Sales Tax and shall apply all provisions of this Act and the rules made thereunder necessary to ensure that the Provincial Sales Tax and the Federal Sales Tax operate together as an integrated tax regime.

(2) The provisions of this Act relating to penalties, offences, and default surcharges shall apply irrespective of whether the tax payable, or the adjustments allowable, relate to supplies of goods, services, or supplies of goods and services, and irrespective of whether the tax is payable under this Act, a Provincial Sales Tax law, or under one or more such laws".

At the time of presentation of General Sales Tax Bill 2010 in Senate no provincial assembly has authorised the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to administer, regulate and collect sales tax on services. The tabling of bill vis-à-vis provisions of its section 8 was, thus, blatant violation of Constitution pre-empting the right of provinces.

Earlier, Finance Minister, Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, told the Senate that there was no other option but to implement the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the General Sales Tax (GST). Mr. Hafeez Shaikh, like his predecessor Mr. Shaukat Tarin, seems least pushed about the command of supreme law of the land that forbids the government to table this kind of bill having provisions falling outside the Federal Legislative List without first seeking the resolution from all the four provincial assemblies.

It may be remembered that in a two-day conference on Value Added Tax (VAT), held in Islamabad jointly by FBR and International Monetary Fund (IMF) on September 4-5, 2009, controversial issue of levy of VAT on services by the federal government came into focus. The then Finance Minister, Shaukat Tarin, assured the IMF that he would get the law passed by Parliament. He asked the FBR "to go ahead with the proposed plan of VAT from July 1, 2010". We criticised him in these columns observing, "One wonders how he could have spoken on behalf of the entire parliament and more seriously against the 1973 Constitution that bars the federal government to levy VAT on services".

It is lamentable that even after the 18th Constitutional Amendment the federal government is bent upon transgressing the supreme law of the land by tabling a law requiring prior consent from the provinces. It is a classic case of federal highhandedness; gross encroachment on the rights of provinces. The federal government has no authority to draft any law for any province — it is obvious that the stalwarts sitting in the Ministry of Law and FBR have blatantly violated Articles 141, 142 and 144 of the Constitution of Pakistan. Mian Raza Rabbani has rightly warned the government of possible consequences of such unconstitutional act. Even if this law is passed by National Assembly, it will be challenged in High Courts under Article 199 of the Constitution.

Successive governments in Pakistan — civil and military alike — have never bothered to work out judicious distribution of taxation rights between the federation and the federating units. Provinces were deprived of their right to levy tax on goods and serves emanating from their territorial boundaries. Perpetual abuse of constitutional provisions by Islamabad has created disharmony and animosity between the Centre and the provinces.

In all major federations — US, Canada and India for example — the federating units have the exclusive right to levy indirect taxes on goods and services transacted within their geographical boundaries. In Pakistan, the federal government has denied this right to the provinces till today — this issue was not raised by any province during the NFC meetings. The federal government, even after the 7th NFC Award and 18th Constitutional Amendment is collecting enormous amount of taxes on services that constitutionally belongs to the provinces.

Sales tax at the time of independence was a provincial subject. However, in 1948 it was made a federal subject by the Constituent Assembly of Pakistan through the Pakistan General Sales Tax Act, 1948 enacted on 31st March 1948. The right to levy sales tax on services remained with the provinces — this Constitutional position has always been unambiguous. This Constitutional position has never been challenged by anyone. The Centre derives powers from the Federal Legislative List, Part I, Fourth Schedule to the Constitution of Pakistan, through Entry 49, for the levy of sales tax on goods.

The exact language of this Entry is: "Taxes on the sales and purchases of "goods" imported, exported, produced, manufactured or consumed". How, on the basis of this Entry, the federal government can draft any law proposing sales tax on services on behalf of provinces? If the National Assembly cannot levy GST/VAT on services, how can such a law be tabled for debate, let alone be passed?

On the dictates of IMF and with the consent of PPP leadership, FBR proceeded to work on the draft of a law part of which was outside the Constitutional competence of the National Assembly — it did not even bother to secure prior resolution(s) of at least two provincial assemblies under Article 144 of the Constitution. Through Section 8 of the General Sales Tax Bill 2010, federal government has already pre-empted the right of the provinces to collect GST on services at their own.

No entries related to taxes in Federal Legislative List caters for GST/VAT on services by the Centre, but IMF is insisting that FBR should collect it on behalf of all the four provinces. The federal government even did not bother to wait for the provincial assemblies to pass resolutions to this effect under Article 144 of the Constitution. Needless to say that blatant violation of Constitution is being committed by the federal government by tabling the General Sales Tax Bill 2010.

IMF and World Bank are of the view that levy of VAT will be an important measure for documentation of the economy and ultimately leading to better income tax collections. They cannot comprehend that in our milieu where corruption is rampant in tax machinery and businessmen are unscrupulous, it will open new vistas of tax evasion. The crooked businessmen would collect GST from the masses but would not deposit the entire amount in the government treasury to avoid actual quantification of their turnover/income—the large portion of GST would go in the pockets of dishonest tax collectors and their friends in business and industry

The independent economists also stress that from pure economic point of view, leaving aside the legal dimensions of the conflict, levy of tax at 15% in the peculiar Pakistani conditions will have disastrous consequences. They apprehend that imposition at such a high rate would be a final deathblow for the country’s weak economy and would lead to further recession and poverty. Sales tax in its very nature is a regressive tax, being an ad valorem imposed on the seller; while the consumer ultimately bears its burden.

It is well established that such taxes take a larger proportion of smaller incomes than of larger incomes. Pakistan needs reintroduction of progressive taxes e.g. inheritance tax, wealth tax, gift tax, capital gain tax — abolished by military dictators. Instead of regressive indirect taxes, we must tax collossal wealth of rich and the mighty, especially that of absentee landlords. If untaxed and looted wealth of nation is confiscated through an asset-seizure legislature, current tax-to-GDP ratio of below 10 percent can jump up to 20 percent in just one year.

In 2001 we destroyed our income tax law by promulgating Income Tax Ordinance 2001 on the dictates of IMF — adjudged by the apex court in 2009 PTR 23 (S.C. Pak) as a law that was hurriedly enacted and uncaringly amended. Now in 2010 we intend doing the same with Sales Tax Act, 1990 — interestingly it is again IMF that is twisting our arm to go for new sales tax codes, both at federal and provincial levels. Pakistani tax experts have been pointing out over and over again that the country would be better off with a single-stage simple sales tax (at a low rate of 3% to 5%) as in Singapore and Japan, two highly developed economies. However, the tax bureaucracy wants complex rules and cumbersome procedures coupled with legal loopholes with unfettered discretionary powers — creating ideal conditions for corruption to thrive and flourish unabated.

The writers, tax lawyers, are Adjunct Professors at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS)

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Growth in South Asia[/SIZE]

Pakistan’s eastern neighbours in the region — India and Bangladesh — seem to be making progress; where do we stand?

By Alauddin Masood
[/CENTER]
South Asia Subcontinent, which was reputed to be the ‘golden sparrow’ in the medieval ages, seems to be poised for rise, once again. However, the economic growth of Pakistan’s eastern neighbours — India and Bangladesh — is more impressive at present compared with the former.

The Indian economy is expected to rise by 9.2 percent in 2010-11 following impressive growth in the manufacturing and services sectors, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

The foreign investment in the Indian stock market has crossed Rs1 trillion ($22 billion), hitting Rs1,005,742 million on October 13, 2010, for the first time in history. According to the Daily Tribune (Chandigarh, October 13), analysts predict that the overseas inflows will continue to increase in the coming months.

Going by the pace of foreign fund inflows, analysts are positive about the continuation of the trend in the near term, given that the country is one of the hottest destinations for investment by overseas fund houses. Last year, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased shares of Indian companies worth Rs834,230 million. During the same year, the stock market benchmark — SENSEX recorded a gain of over 80 percent.

The surge in the Indian market is primarily due to inflows by FIIs that have been pumping funds into emerging markets on account of their strong growth prospects and fundamentally sound companies.

Driven by FII inflows, Indian bourses picked up significant momentum during the second quarter of the current fiscal year. This helped the stock market to break out of the tight range that it was confined in the previous three quarters.

Analysts believe Delhi’s plans to disinvest in public sector companies, including Coal India Ltd; will give more investment opportunities to FIIs.

As regards Bangladesh, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest economic outlook, has projected the country’s economic growth at 6.3 percent for the current year, higher by 0.5 percentage point than last year.

Compared with India and Bangladesh, Pakistan’s economic outlook is depressing. "Hardly had our economy started showing signs of recovery when it was hit hard by the recent calamity," President Asif Ali Zardari said, on November 6, 2010, during a dinner meeting with some ambassadors of countries in the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) forum.

Economy is the most vital element of national power because it is the one element which keeps the other moving. In addition to the recent unprecedented devastating floods, the war on terror, global financial crises and internal security conditions are some of the factors which adversely affected Pakistan’s economy.

After an impressive and above 5 percent growth for a couple of years, Pakistan’s GDP growth is projected at 2.8 percent during the current financial year. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country has tumbled down by 50 percent and economic activities have slowed down massively in the wake of non-provision of power and gas.

Meanwhile, with a burden of Rs9 trillion public debts, the country’s debt to GDP ratio has swelled alarmingly to 69 percent. (According to officials, the existing public debt hovers around Rs8.6 trillion.) The economic experts say that the debt burden is too much and the poor country has no debt carrying capacity.

Officials working for the IFIs and diplomats representing FoDP (Friends of Democratic Pakistan) member states believe that no one in the government looks serious to bring the economy on radar screen, upsetting FoDP and IFIs, including IMF, WB and ADB, as to why the state hierarchy are not serious to increase the national resources.

In a report entitled "Doing Business 2011," the World Bank has lowered Pakistan’s ranking as a place to do business by eight places, from 75th in 2010 to 83rd in 2011. The report might cast adverse impact on the potential investors and keep them away from the country, thus negatively impacting the efforts and hopes of economic turnaround that the nation and the country need so desperately.

In eight of nine categories, Pakistan’s ranking has slumped from 69th place during the previous year to 85th place; while globally the country has fared the worst in terms of its ability to enforce contracts. However, the report commends Pakistan’s judiciary because of the improvement in the time taken to settle cases.

According to Sultan Ahmed Chawla, President of the Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Pakistan’s economy was in a critical situation only due to mismanagement and one-sided decisions. Addressing a meeting at FPCCI’s Lahore office on November 5, 2010, he exhorted the government to take the private sector on board in the process of policy-making.

Mired in poor governance and rampant corruption, Pakistan has paid almost Rs2.6 billion ($ 30 million) as commitment charges to ADB for not using efficiently, timely and in transparent manner the credit lines amounting to $4billion.

One of the perceived pre-requisites of good governance is transparency in administration and, in fact, in public life as a whole. If the government business is conducted openly, the authorities can afford transparency in most of public activities. It is now universally agreed that the more the transparency the less the corruption.

On the other hand, corruption inhibits good governance. It undermines economic development, stunts growth, fuels poverty and creates political instability. No nation can develop to its full capacity or realize its full potential in any field if its social system is plagued by corruption and inefficiency. Corruption not only causes a severe drain on the national economy, it also acts as a major disincentive to foreign investment.

The World Bank report brings to the fore the implications of poor governance, which has stifled growth, raised unemployment and depressed the economy in innumerable ways. The bleak picture painted by the World Bank must be taken seriously because without investment there can hardly be any prospects for turn around that Pakistan so urgently needs.

The writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad

[email]alauddinmasood@gmail.com[/email]

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]For a balanced land management[/SIZE]

An effective regulatory body must be created to supervise land transactions

By Dr Noman Ahmed
[/CENTER]
There have been quite a few reports about land scams these days. Procedures of land transactions, development, and transfers are executed. In urban areas, advertisements of land schemes are found everywhere.

Eye-catching images of lush green access ways and an overall up market profile make most of these schemes the ultimate aspiration for the masses. Despite the reality that city and regional planning is seldom applied in real professional sense, no proposed township stops short of claiming the ambience of technological advancement.

Land is not comparable to other commodities because it is finite. Technology or science can create many entities but land remains a non-extendable measure. Intelligent, judicious and sustainable use of land is the underlying principle of most city planning exercises. Livable cities are those where this principle has been respected in a letter and spirit.

London, New York, Sydney, and Los Angeles are all mega cites. They have experienced enormous pressures on their land development priorities. In comparative terms, these cities have been able to grapple with speculative pressures on land in a commendable manner. Ankara, the capital of Turkey, for example, experienced very rapid urbanisation. To deal with the issue of safeguarding its land assets as well as urban environmental quality, a huge plantation drive was undertaken by the Middle East Technical University — a well-known institution in Ankara.

Millions of full-grown trees were added to cityscape in a couple of decades. The effort was so outstanding that it was bestowed the Aga Khan Award for Architecture a few years ago. Approach in all of these and many other attempts is common — to protect the land from misuse and undesirable commercialisation. They offer worthwhile lessons to be learned.

Despite economic slowdown, new real estate ventures are picking up. The investments in the real estate are considered to be safer in comparison to the other options. This aspect automatically creates an attraction, especially for small and medium-scale investors. The capitalists connive with the land owners, land management agencies, influential politicians, and the armed forces authorities to carve out schemes of various kinds. These schemes supposedly serve mutual interest of the stakeholders who collectively steer them to achieve the best of market returns.

Trusts, foundations, and other similar organizations make use of their connections with the powers that be to acquire favours in the land sector. Permissions, approvals, no objection certificates, and concept clearance all fall in their way, apparently without scrutiny or in disregard to standard practices.

There are many problems in some land development schemes. According to some reports, hardly any schemes present correct internal zoning plan to the approving authority. What is normally done is that the submission documents are prepared in total conformity to the available guidelines. The plans are thus granted approval. Thereafter, the management of the schemes changes layouts, plot sizes, density provisions and even price schedules. A few of them announce schemes on incorrect information, interim approvals or other fraudulent means.

For example, many development schemes in our cities have developed along the path of natural storm drains. After occupation, such neighbourhoods are inundated during monsoons. The provision of appropriate infrastructure is another promise advertised without restraint by scheme managements. Scrutiny of the status of various schemes has shown many deficiencies. Some schemes have never even applied to the concerned departments/agencies for obtaining consent for the provision of the said services.

It is true that the existing load on services is beyond the capacity of service providing agencies. Obviously, the schemes are either delayed for decades or become an under-valued slum in case of non-availability of services. The management of such schemes only lure prospective customers through craftily-worded ads. Another way of advertising is about self generation of infrastructural services. From electricity to water, every service is pledged to be provided through self-generation. For electricity, thermal power plants are refered to as the solution. No one, however, explains as to how the colossal capital cost would be met or how its operation and maintenance would be financed.

Desalination plants, which are considered to be the ultimate solution for water supply in coastal belts, are an expensive proposition. Access roads are the next costly element in the set of requirements in any scheme. More often than not, they are left undeveloped even after possession is granted to occupants. Larger promises such as swimming pools, gymnasium, sports and recreational facilities are announced without giving details of design or completion. Either they are left completely unattended or developed much below the announced targets. Disgruntled buyers often end up in lengthy legal proceedings which add more to their financial woes.

Some institutional inputs need to be launched to make things better. An effective regulatory body must be created to look after land transactions. This body must hold dialogue and meetings with the stakeholders. Broad-based need analysis must be carried out to control land supply in relation to the need. Bogus land sales must be discouraged. Regulatory mechanism must ensure the participation and input of infrastructure providers.

Finally, laws and regulations related to safeguarding natural environment, land titles, and investment must be implemented through regulatory framework. The announcement of schemes may be tied up with clearance/approval from the regulatory body. It must be remembered that land is a finite asset. If it is lost to the unbridled ravenousness of a few, the forthcoming generations shall be more impoverished than us.

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Which education

system suits us best?[/SIZE]

Students and parents keep looking for an education system that best serves the purpose

By Hamaad Mustafa[/CENTER]

The United Kingdom has recently revamped its entire education system. With re-doubled stress on languages and communication skills they are trying to emphasise the age-old point about education not being about the destination but the journey. Systems have already replaced the A levels in many of the leading schools in Britain, such as Charterhouse and Westminster. Of course, we Pakistanis still lag behind, and as each year passes, the number of pounds we pay foreign bodies such as the CIE only increase.

The problems with the education system in Pakistan can be divided into two main categories. Firstly, the structural problems in the system would require the entire set up to be overhauled. Secondly, there are procedural issues which have come about due to the sheer lack of regulation in both our public and private educational systems.

First come the problems with the structure of our educational system. One of the guiding principals of any educational system is equal opportunities for all. In fact, one purpose of education is to counter act the inequalities prevalent in society. The system in Pakistan is strictly divided into the haves and have nots.

The gap between the public and private systems is great in many countries all around the world. But in Pakistan, the discrimination is more institutionalised, it is in fact a part of policy. We have the local matriculation system and the British GCSE O/A level system running side by side.

The British system clearly provides a better standard of education, a fact that universities seem to have caught up on. A student from the inter system, no matter how bright, will never be on a level-playing field when competing with the GCSE students. Apart from a few half-hearted efforts by our medical colleges, little seems to have been done to correct this.

As it stands, our government has little incentive to remove this disparity. As long as their own children and the children of the influential educated upper middle class have access to quality education, little heed will be paid to the children in the matriculation system.

If anything, the direction the government is heading towards is providing greater incentives to students studying in foreign systems. Until and unless our policy-makers’ own children have to go through the same system as the masses, they will have little incentive to try and improve it. The best and only way to give our law-makers a stake in the system is to make it compulsory for all students across the board.

India started off in a predicament very similar to ours. They chose to focus on their own domestic system of education. Even though initially it was not internationally recognised, after a few years it became so. Now universities across the world recognise and widely accept Indian students. In fact, Pakistanis doing the GCSE have little edge over regular Indians when it comes to university placements.

The problems with education in Pakistan don’t just end there; we have issues which make even our high end GCSE set-up an embarrassment for any god-fearing educationalist. As mentioned before, education should be about the journey, but such is not the case in Pakistan. We have effectively killed any seed of creativity our young ones may have possessed by deliberately boxing education into 3-month crash courses. But it’s not all bad, these courses come with a guaranteed A grade, or at least the more expensive ones do. Thus, another more way in which parents can buy their children’s future.

Naturally, these crash courses hardly inculcate in one things like ettiquettes and grooming which are supposed to be as integral a part of education as learning. Their focus is entirely on the exam at the end of the three months, and they will stuff you with information they know you will forget as soon as the exam ends just so you can get that grade you were aiming for.

Retaining information or getting more out of the school experience than just one’s CIE certificate, these are things one can’t gloat about or which don’t make a student look smarter in drawing room discussions. In a society as materialistic as ours, where one reason kids are so pressurised is this social pressure parents themselves feel, it is not a surprise that we have so conveniently turned education into a tool to promote conformity and social inequality.

Sunday, 5th Dec, 2010
 

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Don’t forget the good news[/SIZE]

Afghanistan’s huge mineral resources remain to be tapped; when and how are the questions

By Haider Abbas[/CENTER]

The discovery of untapped lithium deposits in Afghanistan by the United States is far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself.

Lithium has multiple uses in the modern world, including as a mood stabilizing drug, but its first serious industrial use was during the Second World War as part of high temperature greases that were perfect for use in aircraft engines.

The US was the world leader in lithium production from this era until the 1980s when vast South American deposits began to dominate. It is said that Afghanistan could be the "Saudi Arabia of lithium," a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and mobile phones.

While it could take many years to develop a mining industry, the potential is so great that officials and executives in the industry believe it could attract heavy investment even before mines are profitable, providing the possibility of jobs that could distract from generations of war.

With the potential being great and the possibilities of making an enormous profit, certain realities make us ponder whether lithium could be the miracle that would turn around the situation in this war-torn Afghanistan.

The value of the newly discovered mineral deposits dwarfs the size of Afghanistan’s existing war-bedraggled economy, which is based largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the United States and other industrialized countries. Afghanistan’s gross domestic product is only about $12 billion, whereas these vast deposits could become the backbone of the Afghan economy.

However, while looking at all these possible prospects certain questions come into our mind. Firstly, instead of bringing peace, the newfound mineral wealth could lead the Taliban to battle even more fiercely to regain control of the country. The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control of the resources.

Just last year, Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine. The minister has since been replaced. Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral rich districts.

While these are internal problems we have the external threats. Another question is the role of the White House. Taking a trip down memory lane when we look at Iraq and how the war on terrorism was a disguise to smuggle oil. We have our doubts whether the lithium may actually be used to reform Afghanistan and not the United States. At the same time, American officials fear resource hungry China will try to denominate the development of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, which could upset the United States, given its heavy investment in the region.

With all this, another complication in the technical aspect is that because Afghanistan has never had much heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental protection either. The big question is, can this be developed in a responsible way, in a way that is environmentally and socially responsible? With virtually no mining industry or infrastructure in place today, it will take decades for Afghanistan to exploit its mineral wealth fully.

Still, good news is hard to find in Afghanistan these days. Will the attempt to remain positive despite the "ifs" that surround this news succeed? Is there really a choice?

[B][I]This thread contains marvellous substance for CSS aspirants.
Keep it up Bro . May Allah and His Blessings be with You.
[/I][/B]

12-12-2010
 

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Local initiative[/SIZE][/B]

Kohistan is being included in the process of relief and reconstruction by mobilising communities and giving them a voice

By Natalia Tariq[/CENTER]

Zar Buland sat at the side of the rocky Karakoram Highway at Dubair Bazaar in Kohistan, staring into the tranquil flow of the river Indus right below him. He cursed at the deceiving nature of the water which only months ago had engulfed the entire bazaar, its mighty current washing away the road, shops, and bridges. There was hurt in his eyes, the very water that had sustained him, his family and the entire community -- running water mills, generating electricity, and irrigating what little land they had managed to cultivate had also been the source of immense destruction.

His son, Abdullah, can no longer attend school, most of his day spent traveling far from home to fetch water for the family. The flash floods have come and gone, but they have left behind collapsed bridges and wrecked roads. The valley where Zar Buland’s village is located is now cut off from the main bazaar and what was before the floods an hour’s journey, now takes days of difficult hiking through the mountains. Even the communal water mill that his wife used to go to every week to grind their grain for cooking has been washed away by water.

On Thursday 28th October 2010, we accompanied the staff of Omar Asghar Khan Development Foundation (OAKDF) to the remote Kohistan district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) to see flood relief and rehabilitation activities in the area. The Indus River divides Kohistan into two parts with the eastern portion referred to as the Indus Kohistan and the western portion referred to as Swat Kohistan.

The Karakoram Highway passes through Kohistan on its way to Gilgit, and as we drove from Abottabad to Batagram, into Besham (Swat), finally crossing the Chakai checkpost to enter Kohistan, we instantly became aware of the abundant natural richness of the area. Driving along the Indus on one side of the Karakoram Highway, one is surrounded by massive mountains that lead into lush green valleys and forests home to some of the world’s most endangered species such as the tragopan pheasant, musk deer, and snow leopard.

Kohistan consists of 14-15 valleys where people have settled along water streams that flow from the Indus. The population is estimated at 472,570 (1998 census) -- a highly contested figure as it is presumably understated. After Dera Bugti, Kohistan is the most impoverished district in Pakistan and ranks second lowest in terms of human development. Even before the floods hit, people led a harsh and difficult life devoid of basic literacy and health services (the entire district is only served by 3 Rural Health Centers and 15 high schools). Kohistanis rely on forestry and rearing livestock for their livelihood and many of them travel to find work in the major cities of Pakistan or migrate to the Middle East.

OAKDF is one of the few organisations operating in Kohistan. The area is difficult to access not just in terms of its geographical terrain, but also because of the complex tribal dynamics and conservative culture that prevails. The fact that we did not come across a single woman on the visit and that many of the men were carrying guns speaks volumes of the difficult environment of the area. Due to these reasons, the district has been underserved not just by civil society organisations but also by the government.

Over the years, Kohistanis have learned to rely on themselves to meet their needs and this goes to explain the great self-sufficiency and resilience of these people. However, recent flooding has opened an entry point into the area as introverted governance and communal structures of the area are now becoming more open to assistance and engagement with outsiders. The disaster has also highlighted the need for tribes that are hostile towards each other to put aside their differences and come together in a time of great distress.

On Friday 29th October 2010, we held five meetings with people from various Union Councils of Kohistan regarding their flood relief and reconstruction needs:

Floods have affected people’s mobility in the region. Bridges, pathways and roads have been swept away. This is incredibly problematic as Kohistanis living up in the valleys come down to the main town centers with their livestock when winter approaches. Without roads and bridges making this journey through the mountains has become next to impossible. People claimed that they now make an hour’s journey in a day. The distinction between relief and reconstruction becomes blurred in practice as without access to bridges and roads it becomes very difficult for people to carry the food they receive through food distributions to their villages.

People’s discontent with the role (or lack thereof) the government has played in terms of flood relief and rehabilitation in the area was highlighted repeatedly. They feel that Kohistan has always been an excluded district of KP and the same has held true even in the post flood situation. The government’s efforts have been focused on areas such as Nowshera and Charsaddah.

Even though distribution of Watan Cards has been promised the government has not yet fully delivered. There are immense issues using the few cards that have been distributed as people lack information on usage and there is only one ATM machine servicing the population.

Water mills that were used to grind grains and water run electricity generators have also been destroyed. Rehabilitation of water channels is urgently required. Education, already lacking in the area, has suffered even more after the floods. Lack of access to potable water has meant that children now have to travel far to fetch water and cannot attend schools.

Health situation is already dismal (not a single hospital exists in Kohistan) and has been worsened as a result of lack of mobility caused by floods. The nearest hospital is in Mansehra which has become difficult to access now that bridges and roads have been destroyed.

Apart from identifying the needs of these communities, the meetings were also used as a platform to discuss advocacy possibilities. The sheer scale of needs identified in Kohistan makes it clear that both international donors and the government have to step up their assistance and address these needs with a comprehensive strategy.

This will only happen if the people of Kohistan form alliances with each other and with the rest of the Hazara population and demand their rights. At the final meeting held in Pattan, where all the communities came together, they were asked to set aside their differences and form committees that can come together on the platform of Tehrik-e-Huqooq-e-Hazara that was formed by OAKDF when the earthquake hit in 2005. They were also asked to map the needs they had identified at the earlier meetings to start forming a relief and reconstruction strategy.

Even though the flooding in Kohistan has almost entirely destroyed Zar Buland’s livelihood, his dreams are not yet shattered. The second most marginalised district of Pakistan is being included in the process of relief and reconstruction in a way that is mobilising communities such as the one Zar Buland belongs to, and giving them the agency to voice their flood related concerns.

OAKDF has already helped rebuild three bridges, conducted food distributions in the area and their technical team has completed feasibility and costing of roads and pathways that will improve access in some of the valleys of Kohistan. There are some other organisations working there too.

Despite these interventions, the flood relief/reconstruction efforts in the area are incredibly insufficient. The havoc created by the floods has been monumental and needs to be met by an equally colossal response. For years, the plight of people like Zar Buland has gone unnoticed. We must not let the flood affectees of Kohistan become the forgotten victims of this dreadful catastrophe.

The writer is Assistant Programme Officer, Open Society Foundation Pakistan

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]A sane voice[/SIZE][/CENTER]

Senior Vice President of the Awami National Party, Bushra Gohar, is a vibrant and articulate politician known for her unambiguous opinion on matters most politicians tend to avoid. Member National Assembly, Gohar hails from Swabi, Pakhtunkhwa. She is also Chair of the Standing Committee on Women’s Development. Gohar has once again taken an unequivocal stance by refusing to sit on the proverbial political fence and has moved a bill for the repeal of the Blasphemy Law.

In an interview with The News on Sunday, Gohar expresses concern over the statement of the minister for minority, Shahbaz Bhatti, on amending the law instead of repealing it and regrets the politically expedient factor reserved in it.

Gohar has also moved bills for Child Rights and Protection, Pakistan Citizenship, and the Prevention and control of Women Trafficking. Following are excerpts from the interview:

[CENTER]By Shehar Bano Khan[/CENTER]

The News on Sunday (TNS): What prompted you to move for the repeal of Blasphemy Law in the National Assembly?

Bushra Gohar (BG): It has been a longstanding commitment of the human rights activists and progressive political parties in the country. I have also actively struggled for the repeal of all discriminatory laws, including the blasphemy law. These laws were made a part of the statute books during the Zia era with malafide intent, mainly to appease a handful of religious extremists in the country in order to secure support for his illegitimate government. These laws are in contradiction to Islam, our constitution, and national and international commitments. The amendments to the blasphemy provisions in the PPC have allowed religious zealots to go ahead with their extremist agenda disregarding the essential requirement of malicious intention in any criminal offense. In the present state, the blasphemy laws in Pakistan can easily be misused and practical instances testify this horrible fact. Decades have passed since the black law was enacted but none of the governments that followed found the strength or courage to repeal the discriminatory laws that contributed significantly to intolerance, violence, bigotry, hate and injustice in the country.

As the country struggles with challenges of extremism, militancy, and intolerance, I felt it was important now more than ever to make concerted efforts to ensure a level-playing field for citizens irrespective of their caste, creed, colour, and religion. It is unfortunate that in Pakistan the mere mention of taking up laws promulgated by a dictator in the name of religion is tantamount to blasphemy. I felt by submitting the bill I would give strength and courage to other members who too have long struggled against Zia’s black laws and would come forward and submit amendments. I submitted the bill for repeal hoping that it would initiate a meaningful debate within the Parliament. It is important that a Parliamentary Committee is formed to review all laws promulgated by dictators to further their illegitimate rule.

TNS: Were you supported by the minister for minorities, Shahbaz Bhatti?

BG: I didn’t seek or require his support as I don’t consider the matter to be only a minorities’ issue. It is more a constitutional and human rights issue. The ministry of minorities has a weak and poor record of safeguarding religious minorities’ rights and is nothing more than a window dressing with no substantial role in any policy making regarding minorities in the country. It has not played a pro-active role within and outside the parliament to evolve a consensus on equal citizen’s status for minorities, mainly religious minorities, in the constitution through the 18th amendment. Instead of removing the limitation in the constitution on a minority becoming a head of state, through the 18th amendment even the prime minister is now required to be a Muslim citizen. The Awami National Party (ANP) is the only party that has put a note of reiteration on both these clauses reaffirming its commitment to removing such discriminatory clauses. The party believes that as citizens, minorities have equal rights, which include elections to any statutory position in the country.

Shahbaz Bhatti has at best only given lip service to the myriad issues faced by religious minorities. On several occasions he made commitments to amend the Blasphemy Law and/or procedures but we have not seen anything of substance from him and don’t expect anything worthwhile in the near future.

I don’t understand why we have a ministry of minorities and a ministry of religious affairs with both working on matters related to religion and doing a terrible job in ensuring religious freedom, harmony and rights as ensured in the Constitution. I feel we should not have a ministry merely on the basis of religion as the rights of all other minorities in the country are invariably compromised.

TNS: Now that the minister has categorically stated that there shall be no repeal and only amendments to the law, will you withdraw your demand?

BG: I am deeply concerned at the statement made by Bhatti as it is not based on any consensus built within the parliament or the government. This could be his personal position and he has not taken any of the coalition partners or civil society on board. I don’t see why I would change my position on the basis of a politically expedient position taken by the minister of minorities.

TNS: Coming from an area like Swabi were you not deterred by conservative elements in demanding for abolition?

BG: I have been part of a long struggle for human rights in the country and have always been ready for the worst consequences. The people of Swabi were at the forefront of Fakhre Afghan Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan’s struggle for freedom against the British and later for equal rights and provincial autonomy. I don’t believe any major opposition to the proposed bill will come from Swabi as the majority of the people are politically aware and uphold democratic norms.

TNS: Do you think your demand could adversely affect the ANP?

BG: The proposed bill is in line with the ANP’s longstanding commitments articulated in its election manifesto.

TNS: As a woman, are you comfortable sitting in the parliament?

BG: I have never felt inhibited or uncomfortable at any public forum because of my strong convictions and commitments.

TNS: Do you think you have reached your glass ceiling or being a member of the National Assembly is just a beginning to achieve your objectives?

BG: The National Assembly is only a means and not an end for me. It is, in fact, just a beginning of a long struggle that lies ahead if we are to see strengthening of democratic processes, social justice, and human rights in the country.

TNS: Where do you place yourself in terms of policy-making in ANP?

BG: The Awami National Party is the only political party that has women as equal members at all levels and has not boxed them in some odd wings. As Central Vice President of the party, I am an integral part of the party’s policy and decision-making. I am also a member of the party’s think tank where matters of national importance are reviewed on a regular basis.

TNS: What is your role as chairperson on Women’s Development for the National Assembly’s Standing Committee?

BG: National Assembly Standing Committees are a constitutional body within the Federal Government. Standing Committees provide legislative guidance and oversight to the relevant ministry as per the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business of the National Assembly.

As Chair of the Standing Committee on Women’s Development, my primary responsibility is to review, examine, and propose amendments to any Bill pertaining to Women’s Rights, Empowerment, Welfare and Development referred to the Standing Committee by the National Assembly. So far, two major bills, i.e., Domestic Violence Bill and Harassment at Workplace, among others, were reviewed by the Committee and sent back to the National Assembly with recommendations. The Committee regularly examines all other related ministries’ project commitments, budgets, policies, and procedures and gives recommendations. The Committee has taken up important public petitions pertaining to harassment at workplace in major public sector institutions.

TNS: Which other bills have you moved in the National Assembly?

BG: These are: Child Rights and Protection Act, 2010, Pakistan Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2010, and Prevention and control of Women Trafficking Act, 2010.

TNS: Is there a supporting strategy to implement them?

BG: All the above proposed bills have been tabled in the National Assembly and except for the Child Rights and Protection Act, 2010, which was deferred because the ministry wanted to bring its own bill, all others have been sent to the relevant Standing Committees for review. The bill for Promotion of Minority Rights, Religious Tolerance and Inter-faith Harmony Act, 2010 (Repeal of Blasphemy Law) has yet to be tabled in the National Assembly.

TNS: Are you lobbying to replicate the formation of the Women Parliamentarian Caucus in Pakistan on the South Asian level?

BG: We have initiated a process of forming a Women’s Parliamentary Caucus at the South Asian regional level. The Speaker National Assembly, Ms Fehmida Mirza, who is patron of the Women’s Parliamentary Caucus, has been leading the process.

TNS: Could you explain why does the ANP not have an intra-party women’s wing?

BG: The ANP considers women as equal members with equal space and opportunity at all levels within the party. This doesn’t mean that women members in the party cannot have their own organising forum to debate and discuss issues specific to them before bringing them to mainstream decision-making forums. The party women members have held women conventions, conferences, and an all-women jirga on peace and security. Protracted dictatorships, conservatism, religious extremism, and terrorism have left women’s political participation weak not only within the party but throughout the country. Under the leadership of Asfandyar Wali Khan, the ANP has focused on bringing women members at par within the party. Wings are retrogressive and end up marginalising women’s participation within the party.

TNS: Is that not contrary to your nomination as a member of the National Assembly on a reserved seat?

BG: Membership in a women’s wing is not a prerequisite for election to a National Assembly seat reserved for women. Once elected to the National Assembly, all members are equal. I don’t see any contradiction. I, however, feel that there should be a review of the Political Parties Act to improve the process of election on reserved seats.

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Economic integration in South Asia[/SIZE][/B]

The sooner dialogue between Pakistan and India resumes, the better it would be for the economy of the region

By Hussain H. Zaidi
[/CENTER]
Addressing the Lahore Chambers of Commerce and Industry the other day, the Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan underlined the need for shoring up intra-region cooperation in this part of the world as the engine of growth. He observed that while South Asian countries were integrating with the international economy, they remained less integrated with one another.

One can hardly disagree with the Indian envoy. The countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) are mired in poverty and underdevelopment. South Asia accounts for nearly 23 percent of the total world population. However, its share in the global GDP is less than 3 percent. The region is home to the world’s 400 million poor, which means nearly 30 percent of the region’s population lives below the poverty line.

All South Asian countries have a rather low-ranking on the Human Development Index (HDI), which according to the Human Development Report 2010 is: Sri Lanka (91), the Maldives (107), India (119), Pakistan (125), Bangladesh (129), Nepal (138) and Afghanistan (155). The ranking for Bhutan is not available but it was 133rd previous year. The HDI ranking is based on achievements in terms of life expectancy, education, and real income. The low HDI ranking reflects poorly on these vital indicators in the region.

Trade is an instrument of development. However, SAARC’s trade performance is also disappointing. The combined trade of all eight member countries accounts for less than 2 percent of global trade. The region accounts for 1.7 percent of world exports and 3 percent of global FDI inflows. The share of South Asia in total Asian exports and imports is merely 4.7 and 7.5 percent respectively. Not only is global trade volume of SAARC member countries small, intra-region trade is also low. Intra-SAARC trade accounts for less than 5 percent of the total trade of the region.

With a view to achieving regional integration, the member countries created South Asian Free Trade Agreement (Safta) in 2004 at the twelfth SAARC Summit. The agreement, which came into force on January 1, 2006, provides that members will reduce their tariffs to 0-5 percent by December 31, 2015. The success of Safta, however, largely depends on normalisation of Pakistan-India relations. In case the relations between the two countries do not normalise, Safta’s fate will not be different from that of its predecessor, South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (Sapta).

The major reason for meager intra-SAARC trade is low volume of trade between Pakistan and India, the largest economies and trading nations in the region. Though formal Pak-India trade (the two countries have informal trade of more than $3 billion a year) has increased from $236 million in 2001-2002 to $1.32 billion in 2009-10, (including $259.4 million exports from Pakistan and $1.06 billion exports from India), it still constitutes less than 1 percent of the global trade of the two countries. Pakistan has not even granted MFN status, a basic requirement under the WTO, to India and continues to conduct its imports from India on the basis of a positive list. On its part, India maintains high tariffs and non-tariff barriers on products of export interest to Pakistan.

South Asia is clearly dominated by India. It accounts for 74 percent of the region’s population, 75 percent of its GDP, 79 percent of its trade and 81 percent of the region’s FDI inflows. India has trade surplus with all other South Asian countries except Bhutan. In addition, India is the largest military power in the region and, together with Pakistan, a nuclear state. Because of its formidable position in South Asia, India thus bears the responsibility more than any other country to make SAARC a success.

However, it is with India that most other countries in South Asia have had bilateral disputes. These countries look to New Delhi’s growing military expenditure with grave suspicion. This has on the one hand prevented India from assuming the leadership of SAARC, much to the former’s disappointment, and on the other, made its neighbours look outside for help and mediation.

For instance, Norway mediated between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tigers and Pakistan has been calling for third-party mediation, particularly by the US, to help resolve the Kashmir issue.

The problem in case of South Asia is that not only are the resources scarce, they are also misallocated. Too much is spent by the countries on military goods and services leaving a very small amount, after debt servicing and meeting administrative expenditure, for capital formation and human resource and social sector development. In case of India, military expenditure accounts for 2.5 percent of GDP, while the ratio in case of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal is 4, 2.6, and 1.5 percent respectively. The vicious cycle of poverty and debt in SAARC countries can end only if the meager resources are optimally utilised for capital formation and human resource and social sector development. This will also increase their attractiveness as markets for foreign direct investment.

The poor trade performance of SAARC stands in marked contrast with that of the neighbouring regional alliance -- Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The ASEAN countries account for merely 8.4 percent of the total world population. However, their share in total world trade is nearly 7 percent. ASEAN’s contribution to Asia’s total trade is 23 percent. Intra-ASEAN trade accounts for nearly 30 percent of the global trade of the 10-member countries. ASEAN countries have remained embroiled in territorial disputes but that has not hampered their trade relations.

The efforts to normalise relations between Pakistan and India, therefore, must continue. The search for resolving the contentious issues should go on. In principle, these issues should not deter economic cooperation in the region. China and Taiwan have a serious political dispute but that has not prevented them from enhancing economic cooperation.

As a matter of fact, this separation of economic and political issues does not apply to South Asia, particularly to Indo-Pak relations. Therefore, pragmatically, the best approach will be to address economic and political issues together. This is what the stalled Pak-India composite dialogue was meant for. Therefore, the sooner the dialogue is resumed, the better it will be not only for the two countries but also for the region.

[email]hussainhzaidi@gmail.com[/email]

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Missing the point
[/SIZE][/B]
Exclusion of labour inspections from labour laws will continue to affect the labourers

By Aoun Sahi[/CENTER]

Kasur Perveen, 23, a resident of Allama Iqbal Town, Lahore, has been working in a factory on Multan Road since 2005. Even after five years she does not have a letter of appointment or any other written document to prove that she is an employee of the factory.

With five years of experience, she is not getting even 50 percent of the minimum wage announced by the prime minister. "I think none of the workers in the factory has received an appointment letter. My first salary was Rs1,500. Five years later, I get only Rs3,000. I have to work for at least 10 hours a day to get this salary".

Besides the unresolved issue of maternity leaves, there are no separate toilets for women in the factory. "The working conditions are very poor. Getting injured while working is a common phenomenon and as the factory does not provide us health facility, in a majority of cases, labourers have to take care of it from their own pocket," she says. Perveen does not see even a ray of hope that things would get better. "During my five-year stay at the factory, I have never seen a government official coming to the factory to observe the plight of labourers."

Perveen is one of over 20 million labourers working in the Punjab province who are deprived of even their basic rights and are forced to work in poor conditions. Working conditions in the industrial sector in Punjab were never exemplary but they have deteriorated badly ever since the abolition of labour inspection in 2003.

Inspections were stopped following an executive order issued by then Chief Minister Punjab Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi under the provisions of the Punjab Industrial Policy, 2003, which aimed at "developing an industry and business-friendly environment" to attract investment. Physical inspection of factories was stopped through an amendment to the Punjab Factories Rules, 1978. Inspection of workplace by labour inspectors was replaced with a declaration form with the direction to the employers to furnish information pertaining to the implementation of labour laws in their units. But only around 10 percent factory owners have ever submitted these declaration forms to the labour department.

Punjab Assembly passed the Punjab Industrial Relations Bill 2010 on December 8. The act once again disappointed millions of labourers in Punjab as it has not restored labour inspection in the province. Labour unions allege that the government’s decision had drastic consequences for industrial workers in the province. "Mian Shahbaz Sharif, who otherwise hates all those steps taken by former chief minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, has kept this policy of him," says Hanif Ramay, general secretary of the Muttahidda Labour Federation (MLF).

According to him, not a single industry has complied with labour laws since labour inspections were stopped. "It is because no government official is allowed to enter the premises of a factory to inspect working conditions. I am not saying that labour inspectors were doing a great job but they were at least keeping a check on factory owners to ensure implementation of some basic rights," he says.

Proper application of labour legislation depends on an effective labour inspectorate. Labour inspectors examine how labour standards are applied at the workplace. He advises employers and workers on how to improve the application of national law in such matters as working time, wages, occupational safety and health, and child labour. Labour inspectors bring to the notice of concerned authorities loopholes in labour law. They play an important role in ensuring that labour law is applied equally to all employers and workers.

Pakistan is signatory to ILO’s Labour Inspection Convention, 1947. Ramay believes that lack of labour inspection has given employers a free hand to employ a worker without a letter of appointment and sack him at will without paying him his dues. "The workers are forced to work longer hours without any financial compensation for the overtime. Nobody gets the minimum wage. The safety standards at the workplace have deteriorated and the workers are denied medical treatment and financial compensation in case of permanent injury or death in an industrial accident. The conditions of female workers are even worse," he says.

The abolition of labour inspections is a violation of human rights and labour laws, like the Factories Act, 1934. Pakistan is among the countries that spend less than 1 percent of the national budget on labour administration. According to ILO website, some studies show that the costs resulting from occupational accidents and illnesses, absenteeism, abuse of workers and labour conflict can be much higher. "Labour inspection can help prevent these problems and, thereby, enhance productivity and economic development," writes W. V. Richthofen in his book titled, Labour Inspection: A Guide to the Profession published by ILO in 2002.

"Labour inspection is the main instrument to ensure implementation of 8 core conventions of ILO. Our constitution ensures a decent livelihood to all citizens but our rulers are not interested in providing decent livelihood to people," says Zulfikar Shah, joint director Pakistan Institute of Labour Education and Research (PILER), an NGO engaged in research, training, and advocacy in the areas of labour rights and labour legislation, etc.

Zulfikar says the Punjab government led by industrialist elite is unlikely to restore labour inspection in the province. The employers have always been suspicious of labour inspections and consider official monitoring of standards as an obstacle to increasing the profit margin. "In Pakistan, profit margins of industrialists are considered to be the highest," he says, adding that "labour inspection mechanism has always remained ineffective and weak. Still, inspection was some kind of a check on employers who were forced to maintain at least the minimum level of safety standards at the workplace. But now employers are free to do whatsoever they want to do with labourers", he says.

Unfortunately, Punjab is not the only province where labour inspection is banned. It is also banned in Sindh. "This is against the law which asks for ensuring humane and safe working conditions. So, inspection is important for labour protection," he says, adding, "in the WTO regime lack of implementation of labour laws can affect exports and foreign investment. Our government has been requesting the EU to get Generalised System of Preferences-plus status for Pakistan which will help exporters to compete in European markets but on the other it is not trying to improve labour conditions in the country. Our rulers need to know that non-compliance of labour laws can be a huge obstacle to export our goods to Western countries even with GSP-plus status," he warns.

Labour Minister Punjab, Ashraf Sohna, who belongs to the PPP, admits that labour inspections are vital for decent working conditions and to prevent workers’ exploitation by the employers. "Even I am not allowed to enter a factory to observe the working conditions of workers", he says. Sohna blames it on the Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who he says, has done nothing to restore the rights of labourers and takes side of industrialists.

Sohna says he has written many times to the chief minister on the need of restoring labour inspection. He admits that Punjab has more than 20 million labourers working in different sector, but only 0.7 million of them are registered and have been getting benefits of social security.

[CENTER][SIZE="4"]Left in the lurch?
[/SIZE]
Relief and reconstruction work has been ineffective due to corruption, shortage of funds, and skilled personnel

By Tahir Ali[/CENTER]

Shortage of resources, capacity constraints, lack of commitment or flawed priorities on part of the government seem to be the main hurdles in starting the reconstruction phase for the flood affectees in the country, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Millions of people countrywide made homeless by the floods and living in camps and make-shift homes have been left to face the vagaries of weather as winter has set in. Feeling neglected and disappointed, many have started rebuilding their shelters temporarily.

According to World Bank and Asia Development Bank Damage Needs Assessment (DNA) report, around 1.7 million households have lost their homes worth $1.59 billion in floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan. If we take the low figure of 8 as an average household size, then around 13million people have lost their homes countrywide.

Floods inflicted a loss of around $10bn on Pakistan. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa suffered $1.2 billion losses and requires $2.2 billion for flood reconstruction. Total reconstruction cost for all sectors is between $6.8 billion to $8.9 billion. The social sector, including the housing one, needs between $2.01bn $2.7bnn for the purpose.

The government plans to provide Rs100,000 to each flood-affected household for reconstruction of homes. An enormous Rs170bn and Rs30bn are required for the entire country and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa respectively for the purpose.

Reconstruction of homes can continue but only with the generous support of local entrepreneurs and international community as the challenge is greater than the resources at hand and the degree of determination shown by decision-makers.

A Pakistan army team recently reached to a family in a village near Peshawar alongwith building material when it was reported that the locals had started rebuilding their houses on self-help basis. The team also promised to help build houses of other people soon. But not all people are that lucky. Most are waiting for the much needed first or second tranche of Rs20,000 as house compensation given through Watan cards.

Various local and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have started building model housing schemes in the flood-hit zone but much more needs to be done by the government, the international community, the philanthropists and NGOs.

According to Adnan Khan, spokesman for Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the first home reconstruction tranche of Rs20,000 has been provided to 180,000 out of around 0.3mn households. "The flood affectees will get Rs20000 in the next installment too. But cheques for next tranche will be released as the PDMA receives money for the purpose," he says.

The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has diverted Rs18bn this fiscal year for floods related expenditures but it still faces a shortfall of Rs107 billion for post-flood and militancy reconstruction projects during the next 18 months. Adnan says Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also needs Rs86 billion for Malakand reconstruction and rehabilitation and Rs234bn for post militancy reconstruction needs. "We need assistance from donors to provide the next installment of Rs20,000 to flood victims for construction of housing units," Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Amir Haider Khan Hoti, told the PDF meeting last month.

An official says on the condition of withholding his name that province have received nothing from the centre or the international community for the reconstruction phase as yet, making it difficult for it to start the phase in full swing. But with little fiscal gap available with the provincial government to allocate sufficient money in this head, the federal government and international community should come forward and provide the needed money.

Prolonged delay in the release of tranches for house reconstruction would waste the earlier money as people cannot be expected to keep the money for long. While the federal government has decided that the second installment of compensation would be paid under a unified formula, it cannot be justified as requirements and expenditures for building houses in the northern and southern parts of the country would not be the same.

Nepotism, political interference and corruption in the nomination of affectees for compensation have allegedly made verification (of affectees) difficult. Adnan, however, says, "The government has introduced complaint mechanism at the district level and anyone can contact local or provincial officials for the purpose."

There are complaints that far off and militancy-prone areas have been neglected and the entire focus of the government and local and international NGOs has been on the easily accessible areas. Najamul Aleem Sayyed, who worked with a foreign NGO during floods in Nowshera, agreed that some areas like Mohib Banda were unbelievably the most favourite destinations of all aid agencies. "The problem is that relief agencies and the government departments have been concentrating on relief work at the easy-to-operate areas neglecting other areas," he says. Zakhi Qabristan, Mughal Key, Mian Esa, Ali Muhammad and Meshaka are some of the areas whose residents claim they have been totally neglected.

Manzur Ahmad, a social worker from a worst affected area in Akbar Pura, is unhappy that his village had been totally neglected even though it lies at some distance from motorway.

"Our village was badly hit by floods. Nearly all homes were washed away. Our agriculture lands were damaged. But there is no support from the government and NGOs. There is no reconstruction. We still wait for issuance of Watan cards and house compensation. Provision of shelter is crucial at this stage. The people have built their homes temporality after they lost hope of any government action on the home rebuilding initiative," he says.

Khalid Khan, district chief of Muslim Aid in Charsadda, says, of the 57,000 affected families in the city, 30,000 have been provided tents while the rest are going without them. "Shelter is the most urgent need at present. Livelihood restoration, quilts for women and children, and restoration of lands for farming are other vital needs. Our organisation intends to build a model village at Majoki where 55 families are still living in tents but have received little attention and relief support."

"In this village a brave soul had saved 41 lives during floods before he was swept away by floods. His family has been given no financial support as yet," Khan informs. The challenge is big but Pakistan has proven before that it can meet the challenge. In the reconstruction strategy of Kashmir earthquake, Rs175,000 were provided to the affected families in installments alongwith house designs and technical assistance. At the end of 2009, 95 percent of the destroyed houses were rebuilt with 97 percent of these according to the standards and hence safer.

But in the case of the 2008 Balochistan earthquake, the affectees were given one-time cash grant of Rs350,000 and Rs50,000 for completely and partially damaged houses respectively but without any technical assistance or required reconstruction standards. As a result, the rate and quality of reconstruction, according to UN-HABITAT engineers, is extremely poor there. The DNA also wants the reconstruction projects to be based on transparency, monitoring, and evaluation. While the Balochistan victims were given Rs350,000 for completely destroyed home, those in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also deserve better package.

In most of the flood-hit areas, many people had built homes on lands near the rivers. Their lands have been eroded and they do not have the place to rebuild their homes. General Nadeem Ahmed, head of the National Disaster Management Authority, has "strong reservations" over the house reconstruction plan okayed by the government. The flood zoning policy must be strictly implemented. Construction of houses, hotels and shops near or on banks of the rivers should never be allowed.

The PDMA is supposed to deal with the crisis but it has only around 15 personnel in staff. At its present form, it is just a data collection, information dissemination, and coordination body. While it may suggest schemes, plans and strategies for reconstruction it has been kept out of the implementation and monitoring of these schemes. The result is obvious.

The PDMA should have offices in all tehsils and districts of the province. Its staff should also be increased commensurate with its responsibilities and functions. The badly-hit Malakand division inhabitants are in dire need of financial support as the area will soon become inaccessible for aid agencies. Relief and reconstruction work has been ineffective due to corruption, shortage of funds, resources, and personnel.

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Mountain matter[/SIZE][/B]

About 1.5 to 2 billion people’s lives in Asian Himalayan region depend on river systems that are fed by glaciers

By Muhammad Niaz[/CENTER]

The importance of mountains was focused on with the observance of International Mountain Day in 2002 to ensure sustainable mountain development. Understanding the constraints and opportunities of mountains and local communities, the United Nations General Assembly celebrates International Mountain Day each year on December 11 to promote global awareness about the significance of mountains in socio-economic and environmental aspects.

Generally considered as geological barriers, but beyond this layman perception, mountain entities render invaluable services and provide innumerable tangible and intangible benefits for the well-being of humans. Preserving mountain environment deserves special consideration in policy development owing to the role that these entities play in socio-economic and environmental perspective at local, regional, and global level.

Report on Sustainable Mountain Development 2009 maintains that mountain environments are essential to the survival of global ecosystem and their importance can be gauged from the fact that they are the cradle of life, supporting biodiversity, providing food, water, minerals, forest products, energy, and recreation. They also provide means of livelihood to billions of people over the globe associated with the world’s mountains and highlands.

Mountains are not isolated entities. Being susceptible to rapid erosion, landslides, habitat fragmentation, accessibility and connectivity factors, and loss of genetic diversity, mountain ecosystems are rapidly changing. Vulnerability of mountains to environmental impacts, land use pattern, and poverty prevailing among the mountain inhabitants affect their livelihood and mountain ecosystem.

Majority of the forest cover in Pakistan occurs in northern mountains. Forests cover about 3 million hectares, less than 4 percent of the country. Given the country’s total forest resources, about 40 percent of forests occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while about 15.7 percent of forests occur in Northern Areas.

Almost all mountainous forests of the country are exposed to deforestation and habitat fragmentation in one way or the other. The hilly areas of our country, such as Murree, Galiat, Kaghan, Swat, Malakand, and Chitral, to mention a few, are also experiencing increased human settlements due to population growth.

Since 1970s, mountain ecosystems have been increasingly considered in several research and developmental initiatives. In 1992, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, popularly known as the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro served as a driving force in this regard. Adoption of Chapter 13 of Agenda 21 has been instrumental in promoting awareness of the importance of mountain ecosystems and communities.

Working as a regional research and development agency since 1983, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) promotes sustainable mountain development in the Hindukush-Himalayan region and its mission is to ensure development of mountain ecosystem and improve the livelihood indicators of mountain populations.

Mountain ecosystems, occupying about one-fifth of the world’s landscape, are found throughout the world from the equator almost to the poles. To meet their needs, about 10 percent of the world’s population depends on mountain resources, while nearly 40 percent inhabits the adjacent watershed areas.

Mountains serve as water towers providing water to billions of people over the globe. About 80 percent of the earth’s fresh water originates in the mountainous regions which not only play a crucial role in the supply of freshwater to humankind, in both mountains and lowlands but also serve as headwaters of all the major rivers of the world. In semi-arid and arid regions, over 90 percent of river flow comes from the mountains.

The stored water in mountain lakes and reservoirs serves as a potential source for generating hydro-power besides serving as recharge of aquifers. Himalayan glaciers regulate water supply to the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Thanlwin, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers benefiting hundreds of millions of people in the region. According to the WWF reports, these glaciers are experiencing retreat at the rate of about 10-15m each year, owing to the intensifying global warming scenario.

Reports indicate that about 1.5 to 2 billion people in Asian Himalayan region depend on river systems that are fed by glaciers. If the supply of water from highland glaciers is affected, serious socio-economic repercussions are inevitable and the UN’s Millennium Development Goals for fighting poverty and improving access to clean water will be jeopardised.

The Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya mountain ranges, occupying land mass in six countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan) possess the world’s third largest snow/ice mass after the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. These frozen water towers are the prime source of ground water recharge in the region that provides about 70 percent of freshwater to the people downstream in South Asia, Central Asia and China.

Being the centers of biological diversity, mountain plants and animals survive under the environmental conditions of their habitat because of their adaptability. Mountains support most important and significant mountain biota in the form of floral and faunal diversity and endemism as the lowland biodiversity is nearly depleted. Being a slow-growing conifer, the Himalayan Yew is currently listed as an endangered plant by the WWF. The threatened fauna of highlands including Snow leopard, Giant flying squirrel, and Tragopan pheasant besides other are some of the important rare species for whom mountains serve as natural sanctuaries.

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) tropical mountain forests have experienced annual population growth and deforestation. Over the globe only 8 per cent of all mountains are protected. Mountains in adjacent countries serve as corridors for faunal movement and migration across borders.

In the Hindukush-Himalayan region mountains’ sensitivity to all climatic changes compounds threats of avalanches, landslides, and floods and these often results in disasters jeopardising socio-economic progress of a country and affecting hilly communities. According to reports about half of the world’s population is affected in various ways by mountain ecology and the degradation of watershed areas.

According to an international conference on mountains as early indicators of climate change last year ascertains that melting of glaciers provides the most obvious evidence of global warming. All over the world, indigenous people are confronted with unprecedented climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment has pointed out that the changing earth’s climate will affect ecosystems, communities, and cultures that require large-scale initiative and positive global action. Reports highlight that since the end of the 19th century the total surface area of glaciers worldwide has decreased by 50 percent.

Mountain tourism is one of the important sources that contribute to development of local economy and improving livelihood of mountain people. Tourism markets also place great demands on fragile mountain ecosystems.

The government of Pakistan had implemented a 5-year Mountains Areas Conservancy Project to safeguard mountains and their environment from degradation with active participation of local people. Its second phase started as Programme for Mountain Areas Conservation to build on previous initiatives. However, given the magnitude of the local people inhabiting highlands, such initiatives are inadequate to halt degradation of mountain environment.

Encroachment of local people into the wilderness often results in human-wildlife conflict. Unplanned sprawling of human settlements and increase in human population and over exploitation of natural resources in mountain areas pose serious problems of ecological deterioration in these watershed areas. To meet their needs, mountain people carry cultivation of marginal lands on hillsides in the form of terraced fields which accelerate soil erosion while many areas experience excessive livestock grazing, deforestation, and loss of biomass cover.

There is a need to bring in more conservation-oriented projects in the mountainous areas of the country and promote national policies that would provide incentives to local people for the use and transfer of environment-friendly technologies and farming and conservation practices. Proper management of mountain resources and socio-economic development of the people deserves immediate action by strengthening partnership and mutual collaboration at national and international level.

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][B]Politics of local government elections[/B][/SIZE]

The only solution to ineffective local governance is to conduct elections as soon as possible

By Salman Abid[/CENTER]

The issue of local governance and its political implications remains mired in controversy to this day, a subject which seems to have been left to political wheeling and dealing. Perhaps a change has already set in; under the 18th Amendment, local governments are now a provincial matter.

Still, our political leadership seems to be disinterested in strengthening both the local government system and democratic practices at the grassroots level. The federal and provincial governments are under obligation to hold the elections of the local government as soon as possible, but contrary to this, they are using delaying tactics.

It is an irony that the local government system is being run through non-elected people. Since there is no consensus on elections at the provincial level, the Secretary Election Commission has flatly refused to announce the date of the elections. The task of holding elections and promulgation of local government ordinance are delayed under the pretext of consultation process.

One of the basic questions on this issue is whether the political leadership in the national and provincial governments really interested in the elections and has the political will to ensure a dynamic and vibrant system of local government in the country?

Those in the present government set-up, including coalition partners, seem to believe that local government system would be a hurdle in achieving their ‘interests’. The reason behind this understanding can be attributed to the fact that local governments’ inherent aim is to decentralise political, administrative, and financial powers from provinces to the district level.

Advocates of local government system flay provincial governments’ paying lip service to the issue of local governments. We have been witness to the clash between provincial and local governments on the issues of administrative and financial powers from 2001-2008. In addition to this, provincial governments of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have taken a step in the right direction by ensuring local bodies polls in the near future.

The government of Punjab and Sindh are striving on this mission by successive amendments to crush the prevailing system of local bodies. A committee set up by the Punjab government is reviewing previous and prevailing systems of local bodies. In October 2010, the Punjab provincial government passed the amendment in section 179 of 2001 ordinance which empowered the government to announce within 365 days the schedule of local government elections with effect from October 21, 2010. It is a reflection of Punjab government’s approach towards the devolution plan.

There is a disagreement on the formula of power sharing among the ruling partners. For example in Sindh, a battle is going on between MQM, PML-F, ANP, JUI, and PML-Q against the PPP to have larger chunks of power. The MQM is in favour of devolution and rejecting the wish of PPP to have 1979 ordinance back in force.

The same seems to be the case in Punjab where the PML (N) and PPPP negotiate power sharing while keeping the PML-Q at bay. In some districts, especially in rural areas of Punjab, PML-Q is in a position to oust both the PML-N and PPP. Balochistan and KPK have no better position on this issue.

Political parties stick to their guns by, on the one hand, condemning dictatorship and, on the other, ignoring their own undemocratic decisions, for example by putting hurdles in the smooth functioning of devaluation plan. In my view, military dictators support local governance system just to win over people’s support. We always expect from political parties and civilian government to come and strengthen the local accountable governance system through third tier of the government.

But, unfortunately, the political elite emphasises centralised approach against the concept of decentralisation. It is interesting to notice the political forces practically contradicting their stated commitments by appointing bureaucratic administrators on the district and tehsil level.

The article 140-A of the Constitution of 1973 reads as follows, "Each province shall, by law, establish a local government system and devolve political, administrative, and financial responsibility and authority to the elected representatives of the governments."

A significant principal laid down in the Charter of Democracy (CoD) signed by both the main political parties says that elected representatives will be give importance against nominations. This has been violated. But the real test to the claims of the political forces is to translate democratic norms into practices.

The delaying tactics of local government elections mainly supported by non-democratic people and our political elite serves their agenda in the name of democracy. Flood relief and rehabilitation activities have also suffered badly because of absence of local government system. The elected representatives of local government are made accountable and are within the access of common people at the local level.

Unfortunately, our political elite and political parties have learnt nothing from their own mistakes. The legislators in Pakistan are least interested in legislation. If every institution focuses things which it should not how can the system work? The present democratic forces should build consensus on holding local elections if they want to maintain credibility and legitimacy. The only solution to ineffective local governance is to conduct elections as soon as possible.

The writer is a political analyst and a human rights campaigner. He can be reached at [email]salmanabidpk@gmail.com[/email]

19-12-2010
 

[CENTER][B][SIZE="4"]Brutal honesty[/SIZE][/B]

It is problematic in the extreme to censure Baloch
nationalists for admittedly objectionable actions without contextualising such actions and recognising that they are not actions as much as
reactions

By Aasim Sajjad Akhtar[/CENTER]

It would be all to easy to spend the next few paragraphs pontificating about the Haj fiasco that finally culminated Tuesday in the sacking of two federal ministers, the resignation of two more and the dramatic departure from the coalition benches of the Jamia’t-e-Ulema-e-Islam – Fazlur Rahman (JUI – F). One could lament the lack of maturity within our political mainstream at a time when maturity is exactly what is required. One could underline the need for the media to eschew sensationalism and stop inciting ‘regime change’.

I would rather avoid comment on the matter entirely and focus instead on a news item that garnered considerable coverage this past week, even if fleetingly. The New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Monday released a special report on target killings of teachers across the province of Balochistan. Members of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) were present on the launch of the report in the federal capital, ostensibly to lend their credibility to the HRW’s findings.

The report essentially slams Baloch nationalist elements that have taken up arms in pursuit of their political goals for employing violence against unarmed civilians — mostly teachers — whose mistake only is that they are Punjabi settlers. Indeed it is true that target killings of Punjabis have increased noticeably in recent months as the long and simmering conflict between Baloch nationalists and the Pakistani state has intensified. Many of the attacks perpetrated by militants have been quite gruesome, and indicate a growing xenophobic streak within the nationalist movement.

In principle I agree with the authors of the report that indiscriminate violence against non-combatants in a war zone cannot be defended, per se. Moreover, as someone committed to articulating and building an alternative political project to the unitary state model that has been foisted upon oppressed ethnic groups in this country — particularly the Baloch — I find it difficult to understand how the modus operandi that has been adopted by the more radical nationalist elements in Balochistan actually serves the cause of either the long-suffering Baloch people or other oppressed nationalities and exploited classes within Pakistan.

But this is my personal political position, and cannot be the basis of an absolute condemnation of the actions of militants in Balochistan. In fact I find it problematic in the extreme to censure Baloch nationalists for admittedly objectionable actions without contextualising such actions and recognising that they are not actions as much as reactions.

I am not suggesting that HRW, HRCP or other human rights organisations believe that target killings of Punjabis are to be considered in isolation from the resentment and alienation that is sweeping across Balochistan due to decades of state repression and marginalisation. In fact the HRW report does start by recognising underlying political realities.

Ultimately however, the liberal paradigm of human rights that underlies the existence and operation of organisations such as HRW inadequately captures the essence of social conflicts such as that which has raged in Balochistan for the best part of six decades. Human rights as envisaged in the liberal tradition are individualist and the material bases of inequality and oppression are all too often isolated from the ideal of individual ‘human’ rights.

Hence while any one human life cannot be considered any more or less valuable than any other, it is also intellectually and politically suspect to not clearly preface ‘human rights violations’ with a clear and holistic statement of the structural violence that underpins any asymmetrical conflict. In particular, as is the case in Balochistan, in a conflict between the modern state (with all of its coercive force) and those who claim to resist the modern state, employing liberal, individualist notions of rights can be very dangerous.

What I mean to say is that when an organisation such as HRW launches a report with the media fanfare that it necessarily generates, it does so knowing that the issue being highlighted will be magnified or suppressed depending on the wider political environment. So, in this case, HRW is aware that the Pakistani state has consistently portrayed Baloch nationalists — militant and moderate both — as enemies of the proverbial Pakistani nation, replete with regular invocations of the all-powerful ‘foreign hand’.

Surely HRW knows that over the past few weeks target killings of Baloch nationalists — and moderates at that — have increased exponentially. It also knows that these killings have been virtually blacked out in mainstream media accounts. The HRW is entitled to — indeed I may even be willing to say that it should — highlight the excesses of Baloch nationalists. But given what has been happening in Balochistan in recent times, why not assert without hesitation the asymmetry of the conflict in the province and thereby ensure a reading of history and an analysis of the present that is far less prone to manipulation by the powers-that-be?

The question is, of course, rhetorical. Organisations such as the HRW and those embedded in conflict zones such as the Red Cross and Doctors without Borders incessantly assert their non-partisan character. They operate within the confines of established international law — which is premised on the same liberal, individualist, and western notions that underlie the paradigm of human rights.

These organisations do a lot of very important work, and it would be foolish to view them entirely in black and white terms. But it is just as foolish to think about the international human rights regime outside of the prevailing political, economic, and cultural context.

I am just as willing to call attention to the injustices meted out by ethnic-nationalists in Balochistan — or anywhere else for that matter — as the next person. But I refuse to adopt an untenable political and moral position that equates the human rights violations of the nationalists to the gross structural violence of the Pakistani state. In any case, adopting such a position does not help in stemming indiscriminate violence, and may even reinforce the ‘cornered tiger’ psychology that has established deep roots within the Baloch, and particularly youth. I am a friend of ordinary Baloch and Punjabis both, but real friendship requires brutal honesty. And perhaps such honesty is not a luxury available to us all.

[CENTER][B][COLOR="SeaGreen"][SIZE="4"]Lessons in history[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B]

Our polices have been so
security-centric or obsessed with security
primarily due to Indian military threat that we could not evolve a true
democratic
culture

By Raza Khan[/CENTER]

Dr Razia Sultana is a well-known professor of history of Pakistan. Besides a long career in university teaching, Dr Sultana has conducted voluminous research on various eras of history of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Consequently, she has authored tens of research papers on different historical periods.

She is presently chairperson Department of History, Quaid-e-Azam University. She got her PhD from University of Peshawar in History as well as obtained a master’s degree in the discipline of History from the same university by clinching a gold medal. Later she went as a Fulbright fellow to US and did her postdoctoral from Center on International Cooperation New York University.

Before joining QAU, Islamabad, she also taught at the University of Peshawar. As a visiting faculty, she has taught at the Foreign Services Academy of Pakistan (Islamabad); Department of Social Sciences, University of Missouri; Center of International Scholars Clarke Center Dickinson College; Department of History, West Minster College, Missouri; Dickinson College, Pennsylvania; Department of History, South Novak College, Connecticut. Dr Sultana’s area of expertise is Modern Afghanistan and Central Asian History and Politics. TNS sat with her and discussed various contemporary issues of Pakistan and Afghanistan and recent historical developments and their context. Excerpts follow.



The News on Sunday: Contemporary Pakistan is facing the worst crisis. Not only is there a political insurgency aimed at separatism going on in Balochistan but also a religious insurgency aimed at running over the state itself. So what future lies ahead for the country?

Razia Sultana: Although this is true but at the same time the country’s youth is extremely vibrant. What they need is to put their energies in the right direction. I am optimistic that if we let this political process continue, the state would be able at some stage, if not now, to provide the wherewithal, direction and leadership to the youth. I don’t believe in the concept that leaders only exist in the political arena or may emerge from the same sphere. The spheres of education and economy also have their leaders where media have its own leaders. Such leaders in Pakistan are numerous. This is a globalised and interdependent world in which the concept of leadership is very diffused. Moreover, all the things can’t be corrected by one leader; we can’t bank upon Asif Zardari or the likes to come to our rescue. We and you are the leaders of our own domains and this is a big contribution to the national mainstream. This gives me a lot of confidence.

TNS: How would you evaluate the state of Pakistani federalism?

RS: Our polices have been so security-centric or obsessed with security primarily due to Indian military threat — perceived as well as real — that we could not evolve a true democratic culture. The idea of a strong federation we got from the 1935 Act which the new state of Pakistan adopted as interim constitution. We carried this element over to our earlier constitutions. In the 1973 Constitution, we actually disassociated from this aspect of 1935 Act but in practice we continued with the same strong federation. So the major problem of political instability within the Pakistani federation is of over-centralisation. If federalism in its true spirit is introduced in our country many of our acute problems will solve themselves. Rather true federalism is the only to keep Pakistan united.

TNS: What is the state of leftist movement in today’s Pakistan?

RS: With the demise of Soviet Union, the basic argument of ‘Left’ ‘Right’ or ‘Centre’ has to a great extent diluted. In Pakistan political division of the yore has got very mixed up. We have people who are moderate and liberal but the watertight polarisation of ‘Left’ and ‘Right’ is no more there.

TNS: Does that mean that the Leftist movement has got diluted into the liberal movement?

RS: There is no liberal or leftist movement in the real sense of the word. What we are facing are peculiar problems. In the post Cold War era, these problems are greatly related to the uni-polar world and enlightened moderation with liberal ideas. The only challenge to it comes from the ideological spectrum. I think liberal and moderate people should provide a strong platform. This is the only way to stop youth from going the other way to the platform provided by the religious groups. This is the only way also to save our youth from being misled. Right now the youth of Pakistan do not have any other alternative platform to address their grievances.

TNS: How would you evaluate Pakistan civil society?

RS: Pakistani civil society is really vibrant which was very much evident during the Lawyers Movement. Not only that, our media is quite vibrant which is a very strong pillar of the civil society; the NGO and technocrat sector is also quite talented.

TNS: You have conducted research on Pakhtoons in particular. Are they peaceful people or bellicose culturally which may be the main factor behind religious militancy and terrorism?

RS: Pashtoons are peaceful and cultural people, historically rich in traditions. They are deeply hospitable; this itself shows they are peaceful and optimistic people. Moreover, Pashtoons have an open society and they want to interact and establish relationship with people from other cultures. Pashtoons provide refuge to people in ‘need’ at the cost of their families and personal lives. So the culture of Pashtoons show they are good people and their history also tells us that they are not as they are today — portrayed as terrorists or militants. It is in fact a political construct that Pashtoons are depicted as terrorists.

TNS: What are the factors responsible for extremism and terrorism in Pakistan?

RS: Extremism and terrorism is a very complex phenomenon and as a historian I cannot single out one factor for its rise and spreading. However, the main cause of violence in our country is the direct outcome of the Afghan conflict.

TNS: Do you think that religious extremism and terrorism in Pakistan has much to do with preventing genuine political actors to do the decision-making by the powers-that-be?

RS: What you are talking about definitely is correct but it played its role at the stage of proliferation of extremism and terrorism. Usually we think that we cannot control extremism and terrorism because we have weak institutions, crisis of leadership and frequent disruption of the political process by the military. These factors have a direct role in the spread of militancy and radicalism. Our entanglement into regional conflicts in Kashmir and Afghanistan has had much to do with the rise of extremism and militancy.

TNS: What is the reason for so many Punjabis becoming Taliban, of late?

RS: With regard to Punjabi Taliban, it more has to do with groups like Jaish etc. which are focusing on the Kashmir dispute. This is the main cause of Punjabis becoming militants.

TNS: What has been the impact in a nutshell of military and civilian bureaucracy’s too much or almost complete involvement in the statecraft or politics?

RS: Military has been contending that politicians are too corrupt and incompetent to run the system and this is one justification they give for their dominating the political arena. I think it is from both the political and military sides, and on top of it the international causes, that the military has come to dominate decision-making in Pakistan. We have a strong and rival country like India on our border, then we have had our political disagreements with Afghanistan regarding border and territorial issues. That insecure situation, with two superpowers playing very strong role behind the scenes, has really been a significant factor in making military to play a dominant role in Pakistan. So there are many stakeholders that inhibited political process to take its own course.

TNS: What is the nature of current wave of religious extremism in Pakistan?

RS: I think the nature is political. Ideology has been use to rally the people around, provide them a platform, mobilise them. All through history whether in ancient or medieval or modern time, ideology has been used to mobilise people. See the history of Afghanistan where mullahs played a role against the British they provided leadership also. Those who have studied the dynamics of Swat crisis have come out with the conclusion that though Swatis have been very peaceful and their area is considered a very stable part of Pakistan, still whenever uprising took place it was the mullah who spearheaded it.

TNS: It means that mullahs have risen due to the leadership vacuum in Pakistan and they have political objectives too primarily to overrun the state?

RS: I think it is not like that. There are different types of societal leadership. At least two types: political and religious. Maulvis have been enjoying street power all through known history of this area. But it does not mean that that in normal times they are accepted as political leaders. Although Pakistan and Afghanistan are predominantly Muslims, the arena of politics and statecraft is dominated by very secular people. Typical example are Pakhtoon which according to one of their popular saying ‘Pakhtoonwali Is half Kufr.’ Many Pashtoons sport beards and turn rosaries but the same men run liquor and gun shops or are involved in smuggling. So the nature of militancy in our country is political and these ideological and religious tools are used to keep the militants together.

With respect to Afghan Taliban, you could say that they established for some six years a role-model kind of a state. They experimented ideology into a political structure. In this context, you are right that in FATA and some settled areas of Pakistan where Taliban come to establish their own institution and run these according to their own rules they try to govern it which shows they have political objectives.

TNS: Do you think that people in FATA and KPK are prone to ideological manipulations more than other parts of Pakistan?

RS: Of course people are informed; they would not like to follow these people blindly. They would think about it, see the situation around and foresee the future consequences of what they are doing or asked to do by obscurantist elements. There are many Wazirs, Mehsud, Bhittains from North and South Waziristan who are in bureaucracy, military and other important professions and contributing greatly to the state. But there are many back in North, South Waziristan, Orakzai and elsewhere who are leading Taliban and making their ranks and files. So the difference is that of enlightenment.

(Author email: [email]razapkhan@yahoo.com[/email])

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][COLOR="SeaGreen"]Thirty nine years down the road[/COLOR][/SIZE]

Staying mute on why the East Pakistan required a separate homeland will not help Pakistan

By Abid Qayum Suleri
[/CENTER]
Thirty nine years have passed since fall of Dhaka. For decades it was a taboo in Pakistan to discuss the actors and factors leading to separation of East Pakistan. Even now, very little discussion is held about the people of East Pakistan, why they wanted independence from West Pakistan and a separate homeland. In most history and text books written in Pakistan, the discussion on this topic is very conveniently diverted to the negative role of India. The usual conclusion is that the anti federation elements in East Pakistan got support from Indian Army and the Pakistani Army had to surrender and Bangladesh fought its way to independence. Others blame the stubbornness of Z.A. Bhutto and Sheikh Mujeeb for the creation of Bangladesh.

Well, partition of Pakistan was not as simple as mentioned in the text books. In order to learn a lesson from history we need to confront the truth and truth is that deprivation, social injustice, exclusion and marginalisation suffered by the people of the then East Pakistan had developed soon after 1947. The fact of the matter is that unequal distribution of resources turned their blessings into a curse. Social injustice destroys the basic fabric of a society and lack of democratic governance coupled with economic disparities shake the foundations of a nation. All of the above mentioned factors worked paving way for Indian interference and resulted in the fall of Dhaka.

The history is distorted in South Asia to serve the political interests of ruling elites, civilian and military establishment. Three types of histories prevail here; one that is narrated in our country, the other that is taught in the neighbouring country and a third that is the true history which the masses won’t discuss due to taboos, state of denial, fear or ignorance. The same is true for the history of partition of Pakistan.

One should observe the current state of affairs to understand historic events leading to the inception of Bangladesh. Our civil and military establishment have been denying the Balochistan and FATA crisis for decades. They claimed was that a small minority caused the disturbances in Balochistan and FATA through external support. Establishment forces still deny the disparity in South Punjab claiming it to be the issue of some minor Seraiki politicians. These forces are also denying that inflation, power shortage and unemployment would bring the people to street in Punajb and urban Sindh leading to socio-political sabotage. This is the repetition of same blunder that we committed in East Pakistan when our civil and military establishment denied prevalence of sense of deprivation among people of East Pakistan.

Individual deprivation, poverty and exclusion when gets an identity be it creed, ethnic, provincial, sectarian, or class leads to creation of two groups, "have" and "have nots". Like majority of population in smaller provinces of Pakistan today, back in the sixties the people of East Pakistan found that they were in have not group. They were forced to join the struggle between haves and have nots which culminated in the creation of Bangladesh (although another struggle between haves and have not of Bangladesh is on now).

Unfortunately the angels ruling our country did not learn their lesson and tried to hide the history under the carpet. They followed East India Company model of ruling the masses through few selected elites in East Pakistan and instead of rectifying their mistakes are still following the same model for ruling the people in Balochistan, FATA, and South Punjab through selected tribal lords, Maliks, and feudal lords.

It is evident from SDPI-WFP-SDC latest report of food security in Pakistan that doling out money and privileges to this elite did not work. Inter and intra provincial disparities have increased manifolds. FATA has the highest percentage of food insecure population (67.7 percent) followed by Balochistan (61.2 percent), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) (56.2 percent). Among the districts, Dera Bugti has the highest percentage of food insecure people (82.4 percent).

Balochistan has the maximum number of districts with worst conditions for food security. Twenty six out of twenty nine districts of Balochistan are food insecure. The 20 districts of Pakistan with worst conditions for food security include 10 districts from Balochistan, 5 from FATA; 3 from KPK; and 1 from Gilgit-Baltistan and Sindh each. The number of districts from Balochistan in this category has doubled since 2003.

It is not only a coincidence that most food insecure districts in Pakistan are most militancy hit districts too. This is not only true for Balochistan, KPK, and FATA but for Sindh and Punjab too. In Punjab Rajanpur, D.G.Khan and Muzafargarh are the most food insecure districts and they are hit by Southern Talbanisation too. In Sindh the most food insecure districts include Kashmore, Kandhkot, Shikarpur, Dadu, Jacobabad and these districts are hit by tribal militancy too.

Today militancy is the single largest threat to our national existence and one needs to dig deeper to understand the roots of militancy and violence. It would be difficult to exclude the role of external actors for the mess we are in. However, we also need to admit and learn from our mistakes. Social injustice and lack of inclusive development policies paved the way for creation of Bangladesh. Thirty nine years down the road, are you not sensing a few more Bangladeshs in the making here?

Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri is the Executive Director of Sustainable Development Policy Institute and can be reached at [email]suleri@sdpi.org[/email]

[CENTER][COLOR="Green"][SIZE="4"]Taxing agricultural income[/SIZE][/COLOR]

Both the
federation and provinces under the
Constitution are bound to follow the definition of "agricultural income"

By Huzaima Bukhari and Dr Ikramul Haq[/CENTER]

Taxing agricultural income is the sole prerogative of provincial governments under the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan. These days confusion prevails about the laws in force for levy of income tax on agricultural income.

It is strange to note that politicians, parliamentarians, TV anchors and so-called experts are not clear about these laws. They keep on criticizing federal government for not levying income tax on "agricultural income" without realising that the fault lies with the provincial governments.

The total collection by all the four provinces under these laws was dismally low in 2009 at just Rs1.89 billion collected against the actual potential of Rs200 billion. The share of agriculture in GDP that year was about 22 percent.

The low collection proves beyond any doubt lack of will to tax the rich absentee landlords in Pakistan; their number is meager but their clout in politics is very strong. This influential class includes the generals and other high-ranking military officers, who now own substantial state land, given to them as awards. They have emerged as a new landed aristocracy. Like barons of feudal Europe, they control our politico-economic system.

Ruthless exploitation of the landless tillers and industrial workers (most of the industries are now also owned by feudal lords in parliament) is the real issue that has never been addressed by any political party.

Presently, the provincial governments are not levying and collecting tax on agricultural income but charging a fixed tax on per-acre basis. The charge is usually Rs150 per acre from the irrigated areas and Rs100 per acre from non-irrigated lands. This acreage-based charge is in gross violation of the Constitution that stipulates tax on agricultural income as defined in Article 260(1).

Entry 47, Part 1 of Federal Legislative List contained in the Fourth Schedule to the Constitution (it remains intact even after the 18th Amendment), empowers the federal government to levy "Taxes on income other than agricultural income". The expression "agricultural income" is defined in Article 260(1) of the Constitution, which says: "Agricultural income" means agricultural income as defined for the purpose of the law relating to income tax."

The word "means" signifies that this is an exhaustive definition that binds all the provincial legislatures to levy tax on "agricultural income" as defined in the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001. However, the provinces, instead of following that definition, are levying fixed tax. Nobody has taken note of this gross violation till today.

Both the federation and provinces under the Constitution are bound to follow the definition of "agricultural income" as provided in the Income Tax Law while determining their legislative powers in terms of Article 70(4), Article 141, and Article 142 read with the Fourth Schedule to the Constitution. However, it is a matter of great concern that all the four provinces are perpetually violating the command of the supreme law of Pakistan.

Even a cursory look at laws (and amendments therein from time to time) promulgated by them, to tax "agricultural income" shows that:-

(a)Khyber Pakhtunkhaw has not even provided the definition of "agricultural income" in its Northwest Frontier Province Agricultural Income Tax Ordinance, 1993. The tax levied under the name of "Income Tax" is, in fact, a land tax on the basis of produce index units. This is nothing but a mockery of legislative process. If there was no political will to impose income tax on "agricultural income", then what was the need to hoodwink the people by calling it Agricultural Income Tax? Since 1993 no government of the province has bothered to correct this anomaly. This shows the level of understanding of Constitutional provisions by our legislators (sic).

(b)The same is the case with Sindh Agricultural Income Tax Act of 1994 as amended from time to time. The PPP government is keen to collect VAT or sales tax on services, which it should as its constitutional right, but it has no desire to tax the rich pirs and waderas. Would this nation be informed how much tax is paid by Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, and many other feudal-cum-pirs of Sindh on their agricultural income?

(c)The Punjab Agricultural Income Tax of 1997, as amended from time to time, is no exception. No effort was made till 2000 to impose income tax on total income earned from this source. A face-saving device was introduced to levy yet another tax on acre basis at different rates in respect of irrigated and non-irrigated lands. Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has never bothered to tax rich absentee landlords of his province — many of whom dominate PML(N). Proper legislation should have been made as per Constitution to tax the Khosas, Gilanis, Quershis, Tiwanas, Sardars, Chaudharis, Maliks — just to mention a few. Such taxation could have provided room to initiate a number of meaningful welfare and job-oriented schemes for the have-nots, unlike the gimmick of sasti roti that was not restricted to the needy alone. But certainly, even the Sharifs have no intention to tax the rich and mighty feudals. They themselves have joined this class by grabbing many lucrative lands. See palatial palaces in Jati Umra, flats in Mayfair London, property in Saudi Arabia, Dubai and elsewhere.

(d)In Baluchistan, the position is no different. From 1993 to 1999, the Governor of Balochistan promulgated various Agricultural Income Tax Ordinances that were amended from time to time, following the same pattern as in the other three provinces.

The above analysis shows that none of the four provinces, while levying income tax on "agricultural income" followed Article 260(1) of the Constitution. All the agricultural income tax laws passed by them are superficial whereas in substance no tax on "agricultural income" has been imposed by any province, showing an attitude of contempt and apathy towards the Constitutional provisions.

None of the four provinces has levied income tax on "agricultural income" as defined in the Constitution. The military and civil governments have consistently shown disrespect to the Constitution. This explains why constitutional democracy has failed to work in Pakistan; economic interests of landed aristocracy have primacy over the Constitutional rule whereas it should have been the other way around.

No country can become a democratic society by merely following the system, rather nomenclature, of parliamentary democracy, restricting it to electioneering, unless it demonstrates by action.

In Pakistan, we have witnessed just the opposite behavior. Lawmakers themselves blatantly violate the law but insist that others respect and follow the rule of law for the perpetuation of their economic interests. The beginning of change in Pakistan will be the day when these classes are taxed to give a blow to their ill-gotten money.

The writers, authors of many books and tax advisers, are Visiting Professors at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS)

[CENTER][SIZE="4"][COLOR="Green"]Taxation in times of crisis[/COLOR][/SIZE]

Will RGST and flood tax help the government?

By Irfan Mufti[/CENTER]

The government is still struggling with its resource gap to meet the basic needs of flood survivors. The gap is still too large to be filled with the existing or expected resources committed for flood rehabilitation.

Among several options, the government is also considering levying the one time 10 percent additional flood tax on income to raise approximately 60 billion rupees needed for reconstruction and rehabilitation purposes. The tax will help generate additional finances for the rehabilitation of the flood-affected population and reconstruction of the affected areas.

However, the governments' 'indecision' over the proposed flood tax is worrisome. The government's inability to raise resources locally is creating problems for the donors to generate funds for people affected in Pakistan's worst calamity.

Despite assurances from government that flood tax would be nominal and would not put additional burden on the tax payers the business community and tax payers are reluctant to accept these proposals. Government has assured that one-time flood surcharge would not be imposed on income, sales tax, import and export but it would be charged on property, land and higher income groups who can bear the burden.

Similarly the government's proposal for Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST) has met with serious criticism in the Senate and its coalition partners do not seem fully committal on supporting the proposal in the parliament. The major political parties within and outside the government as well as business and industry leaders are vehemently opposing these taxes. This article is to discuss if there is a genuine reason to oppose these taxes.

Pressure is mounting even though the government has been saying all along that the proposed RGST and flood tax will not burden the poor and would be imposed after the complete consensus of the provinces through proper legislation and approval of the parliament. The proposal also aims to bring more sectors into tax net by abolishing the tax exemptions and bring reforms in the current tax system. The government is also considering keeping the RGST ratio at 15 percent.

The RGST appears to have been misunderstood by the taxpayers and hence is facing stiff resistance from different quarters. The RGST is a consumption-based tax: the more we consume the more we pay taxes. It is levied on any value that is added to a product. There are 141 countries that have implemented this tax successfully and are reaping benefits of higher revenue. If it can work well in those countries why can't it work in Pakistan?

The general perception about this tax is that it is highly inflationary and will increase the tax burden of poor consumers, and will destroy businesses and trade in Pakistan. Lack of affective communication with stakeholders and general public has led to the building up of these misperceptions, for which the government is to blame.

Taxing to rehabilitate flood mitigation, management and rehabilitating affectees is not a new concept in the modern world. Several countries have introduced such special taxing arrangements to raise extra resources for disaster management. Citizens are charged special taxes for flood control or rehabilitation tasks. It is however done after making some safeguards for the poor and those that are already burdened by state taxing. Such taxes are normally imposed on those that can afford or bear the burden of economic strains or help governments in special objective like rehabilitation and reconstruction in post disaster situations. What is different in Pakistan's case is lack of confidence and trust of ordinary citizens on the credibility, efficiency and effectiveness of government. Little do they believe the promises of the government thus unwilling to contribute even in the noble cause of helping the flood affectees.

It also seems the present government hasn't done its homework before introducing these taxes at a time while ordinary citizens were already facing price hike and inflation. Adequate homework hasn't been done to present these concepts to the public and build their confidence and clarity on the importance and usefulness of these important taxes.

The timing of levying these taxes is also not opportune. The sense of unity displayed at a time when the ravages of floods were unfolding, when the nation was coming together to help flood affectees, has diminished in the last two months. This tax will be imposed on salaried persons and the urban middle-class who are already paying income tax and also facing the brunt of higher food prices. The feudal earning billions from agriculture have remained out of the direct tax net and will remain exempt from flood tax as well. The way these taxes are presented they indeed are against the principles of equity and justice.

In recent years the profitability in agriculture sector has increased due to the surge in the prices of agricultural commodities such as cotton, sugarcane and rice. This surge has transformed the profitability of Pakistan's rural economy and its large landholders. Cotton prices have been almost doubled in the recent crop and generated additional income of more than Rs250 billion for fairly large cotton growing farming community in Pakistan. Similarly the record increase in the price of sugarcane has given lucrative profit to sugar growers and sugar cartel in Pakistan. Rice growers are also raising heaving profit due to significant increase in rice prices. Additional Rs 390 billion, in the last two years, has been generated through the recent increase in support of wheat. Will it be fair to exempt several hundred billion rupees of income originating from agriculture from income tax?

It will be however very unfair if the government levies additional flood tax on the incomes of the urban middle class while the agricultural sector, reaping lucrative profits, is exempted from the tax net. The government must consider mobilising additional fiscal resources by taxing agricultural incomes.

Among other measures government can consider levying withholding taxes at the time of sale of commodity to the miller or at the time of export will be very effective in quickly mobilising fiscal resources. A relatively small tax of around 7-8 per cent of the price could yield tens of billions of rupees for the government. If the flood tax is imposed without taxing the gains in agriculture, it would be unfair and against the principle of equity and justice.

As far as inflation is concerned, theoretically the reduction in tax rate, if passed on to consumers, would reduce the prices of consumption goods. When the RGST is introduced to hitherto exempt items, the prices of these items would necessarily go up. On balance, the introduction of the RGST would not be inflationary if the businesses and trade pass on the benefits of reduction in their tax burden to the people. It is generally observed that such reductions are seldom passed on to consumers. To that extent, the profit margin of businesses will go up and the consumer may see some rise in prices.

It seems that the crisis in hand is not resource crunch or citizen's reaction to any government reforms but a total loss of trust, confidence and alienation of citizens from the state and government functions. These are important questions for our leaders to consider seriously before they are discredited further.

The writer is Deputy Chief of South Asia Partnership Pakistan and Global Campaigner

[email]irfanmufti@gmail.com[/email]

[CENTER][B][COLOR="Green"][SIZE="4"]Water conservation[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B]

Pakistan needs a revamped water policy before it’s too late

By Tahir Ali[/CENTER]

The prevalent drought has more forcefully reminded the policy makers in Pakistan what has been earlier established by this July’s devastating floods: that the country should build more water reservoirs to accommodate the rain/floods water sooner rather than later.

It has also underscored the need for utilising the waste-water resources for irrigation purposes to guard against the danger of having rain-fed areas without crops in case of drought as is being witnessed.

The devastating flash floods have inflicted huge losses of about $10bn to the national economy. But if we learn from this calamity and become vigilant to volatile climate hazards by taking some measures, the calamity will be turned into an opportunity for development and prosperity.

The situation is even dismal for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where non-irrigated land accounts for over 50 percent of wheat acreage. The irrigated wheat area there is usually is around 0.8 million acres and the rain-fed area is over 1 MA.

With only a few days left in wheat sowing season, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is likely to miss its wheat sowing target of around 1.8mn acres this year.

Gul Nawaz Khatak, the chief planning officer of ministry of agriculture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said most of the wheat-specific southern districts like Laki Marwat, Tank, Bannu and Dera Ismail waited for rains, saying the rain-fed areas could have been cultivated had there been rain.

"Even if it rains till 20th of December, it will make sowing possible. Otherwise the area will be left without wheat this year. As of now only those areas in non-irrigated lands have gone under wheat cultivation that had some moisture in it. If there is no rain, wheat target will be affected by about 10 to 12 per cent," he said.

This inability to sow wheat due to lack of water at the provincial and national level, means farmers’ poverty, debt cycle for them, food inflation and food security problems. But it will also have serious financial repercussions for the cash-strapped provincial and national kitties.

A loss of one million tons of wheat cost a whooping Rs24bn of exchequer. The province is expected to lose around 0.5 million tonnes and its woes would be further increased by this loss. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has already sustained a loss of around Rs200bn for floods and another Rs300bn for militancy shocks.

Secretary irrigation Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Muhammad Ashfaq Khan said the irrigation sector has suffered a loss of Rs11bn in floods. "As international donors and the federal government has not provided us the funds for reconstruction so far, we have decided to suspend our annual development programme and diverted funds to reconstruction efforts," he says.

"Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, for lack of infrastructure, is unable to utilise 3.28MAF of its share of water as per the 1991 accord. This is why new dams and canals are required in the province," he adds.

An official said due to droughts the provincial seeds industry could sell only three of the target of six thousand tonnes seeds to farmers. "The situation is indeed very dismal this year. You know wheat can be sown till January but delay from December onward brings per hectare yield down considerably. The per hectare yield in the province already lower than rest of the country, it is not a good omen for the food deficient province," he said.

He says the government would give around 1600 metric tonnes of the left over seeds to farmers free of cost now. The cost will be borne by a Kuwait based NGO.

"By giving this residue of seeds to farmers, not only the farmers will get relief but if utilised, its expected production will be around 42000 metric tonnes. This will help reduce the gap between the wheat target and actual acreage," the official says.

The land under wheat cultivation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is 1/5th of the 2.75 million hectare total cultivable land in the province. This needs to be increased.

"The government must increase per acre yield, bring more land under cultivation and ensure mechanised farming and bigger land-holdings," Shah says.

"This is why province badly needs the construction of promised but delayed/denied Chashma right bank canal’s lift scheme. This will irrigate 0.3MA of land. This will make the province food sufficient but it will also be in a position to export wheat," Shah argues.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is dependent for 3/4th of its annual wheat requirements of 3.73 million tonnes on Pasco, Punjab’s government or imports.

Ghulam hussain, a farmer said first they faced shortage of seeds at the beginning of the sowing season and also DAP went out of the market. Later prices of fertilizers surged. How can we achieve the target when each and every input is scarce or costly," he says.

"The climate change scenario was an established phenomenon for which the researchers and the government should try to introduce air/drought/ high temperature and excessive rainfall-resistant varieties that could resist the vagaries of the weather and yielded more grain," Shah says. "The yield per hectare has reached to over 5000kg in China, but we still have about 2400kg per hectare in the country and still lower in the province," he adds.

The provincial government has prepared detailed designs, feasibility study, pre-feasibility report of around 100 new small dams. The federal government should finance these and the Kurram Tangi dam, Munda dam and some other dams and rivers advocated by the provincial irrigation department. Reservoirs for rainwater should also be built. This is vital for Khyber pakhtunkhwa as 49% of cultivated area is rain-fed.