What’s the thinking in the black & white world of the khakis?

[niazikhan2]

ISLAMABAD: Instead of laying the blame for unprecedented (mis)governance at their own doorstep, ruling circles are conveniently passing the buck to what they portray to be an ‘overactive’ judiciary and a ‘conniving’ Army.
President Zardari chooses to see only the ghost of a “parallel establishment” which in his declared wisdom is the numero uno cause for the government’s inability to deliver. Meanwhile, the government’s loyalist brigade is working feverishly to somehow prove a nexus between the generals and the judges. It is of no significance to them that even archrival India has been forced to admire the commendable role being played by the independent apex court of Pakistan.
In a desperate attempt to blame the government’s self created real problems on the imaginary military-judiciary axis, the government’s spin doctors conveniently brush aside even the latest keynote address by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry at the inaugural session of 17th Commonwealth Law Conference in India, wherein, Pakistan’s top judge had unequivocally declared that constitutionalism and rule of law, and not military rule guaranteed a democratic system in the country. Hardly, the views of someone engaged in some sinister unconstitutional adventurism, wouldn’t you agree?
A lot is also being made of the recent flurry of high profile interjections by the Apex court in mega corruption cases invariably involving political bigwigs, top bureaucrats, and even hitherto untouchable institutions and agencies, but no mention is made of the recovery of looted billions of rupees from Punjab Bank and Harris Steel Mills, NICL, Rental Power Scam etc. Conspiracy theorists insist upon depicting such welcome judicial reprieves as a ‘silent and sinister’ vanguard of the approaching change being orchestrated by this conjured up judges-generals combine. Theories are afloat about the ball of change being rolled with some hard hitting judicial verdicts, which may directly affect the prime minister or the president including that on the issue of non-implementation of the NRO verdict. This could even entail the prime minister being slapped with contempt of court and thus siring a crisis within the parliament. Who knows, even the army could be ordered to come to the aid of the Supreme Court faced with a non-complying and defiant executive, theory weavers contend. When asked about the procedural complications involved in such a request, the argument comes that if the khakis and the judiciary do agree on something then who is to argue with the formidable combination of a highly respected judiciary and an all powerful army enjoying a recently revived public image.
Do these conjectures and theories hold any merit, or are they as divorced from reality as the masters of their exponents? Do the judiciary or the army have any individual or collective designs or is it purely a figment of a scared imagination? Are the judges and the generals still prone to exchanging conspiratorial nods?
First the post-Musharraf repositioned army. Since Gen. Musharraf’s departure, COAS Ashfaq Kayani has worked assiduously to revive the army’s battered image. A successful Swat operation, high profile relief work during the floods and other natural calamities, deliberate distancing from all things political (at least publicly) etc have helped restore the army’s image to pre-Musharraf level. But while the top army brass professes to have nothing to do with how the civilian side of the government is being run, can it really sit by the wayside? Whether we like it or not, the vagaries of history have placed the army right in our midst, with the civilian and military interests perpetually overlapping. The army may be out of power, but not out of the power corridors. Can anyone realistically expect it to sit back and wait for whatever comes its way from Islamabad and that too when the politicians have proven nothing but their own incompetence? The economy is in the pits, law and order is visible through its absence, despondency rules supreme while the ruling democratic junta remains confident in its obstinate state of denial. In such circumstances, the army’s perception gains critical significance. So what is the army thinking anyway?
Economics. You read it right the first time, economics. Economy is the mantra of the top army brass. The army leadership is literally scared stiff of the economic scenario and even more so considering that the governor state bank, the finance minister, and other official economic mandarins have been painfully honest in their off the record presentations to the top generals. The armed forces are finding it extremely tough to even finance their standard standing-army operations, let alone go for upgrading their capacity in terms of men or material. And we are not even looking at the crushing burden of fighting a full-scale war both within the country and on our western borders while keeping a tight vigil on the Eastern front.
Their biggest fear is that Pakistan would be rendered irrelevant vis-‡-vis India purely by its economic downslide and that ultimately we could even end up in a position of some former Soviet republics, which were forced to pander their nuclear assets to the west in lieu of the badly needed bread money. On the internal front too, lack of development and rehabilitation in the war zones against terrorism is a big worry for the Khakis. They blame seriously flawed priorities of government as well as the monetary crunch self-induced by mis-governance and corruption. On Pakistan-United States relations, Rawalpindi has serious doubts about the civilian leadership’s ability to even comprehend the enormity of the issue with its bilateral, regional, and global implications let alone the political leadership’s acumen to handle it prudently.
The army commanders are keeping a close watch on everything, starting from big ticket items like Afghanistan and economy to relatively way smaller issues. Just to give one example, a very high powered call was recently made to a baffled MD PIA, who was asked to explain the controversial deal involving selling PIA routes to another airline (to share an aside, his argument didn’t go down well with the caller). But the real alarming part is the overall Khaki assessment of the democratic and civilian assets required for pulling the country out of its current morass.
In the current khaki perception, “there is no hope of betterment from the current leadership”, to quote someone who really matters. And this judgment covered virtually all the national stature politicians. Having gone over the latest political developments including the 45-day deadlines, interim agendas and the government feigning to start reforming its ways etc, I asked this direct question from an extremely pertinent general, “Do you think the current situation will improve and the government will actually reinvent itself? Can you name anyone out of Gilani, Zardari, Nawaz, Asfandyar, or anyone else in the parliament who you think offers any grounds for optimism? None, pat came the response. Does that mean you will have to ultimately step in? was my second question. This time the response came after a long pause, “Army interventions have not really worked in the past and the region’s situation is already very complicated. And for a country that is so heavily reliant on foreign funding, it is not so easy to go against internationally accepted norms etc. No we do not want to have any direct role in the running of the government but the security and interests of the State must also be protected. I think the army would support any democratic alternatives that help steer the country out of this economic and political stalemate”.
When asked if this answer tacitly implied that the army favoured the much talked about concept of a clean ‘professional’ national government fully answerable to the apex court, the only response was a knowing smile. By the way, they may not have much to say for his political acumen, but Imran Khan surely has a lot of senior officers admiring his financial integrity and boldness (read: anti-Americanism) on issues like war on terrorism and his “groom-able leadership qualities”. But how could the Supreme Court approve such a dispensation that visibly has no constitutional backing? One wonders!



What’s the thinking in the black & white world of the khakis? — III