[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Afghanistan's stability is the Pakistan's survival[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]
March 24, 2013
Muhammad Shoaib Akif

The pre-partition Pakistan is no different from the post-partition Pakistan as far as independence of its people is concerned. We won a territory, in 1947, from British and Hindu majority but not freedom. We, on the other hand, added internal colonizers after the external one.

Due to lack of resources, knowledge and industry, we had two choices. First, we could build ourselves socially, technologically and knowledge-wise by taking help of USSR. Second, we could keep pre-partition social and economic structures intact, and for day to day survival take financial help of USA, the emerged sole super power, after WWII.

Our indigenous tribal and feudal politicians and Muhajir leadership were never willing to share politics and power (democracy) with the poor people of Pakistan. Same was desired by the USA. So, our leadership chose the second option of USA to survive. For the first decade the leadership survived due to the bureaucracy and without any constitution of our own. Afterwards, army ruled the country with the help of civil bureaucracy for another decade. Hunger, homelessness, economic and social poverty and ignorance multiplied for common Punjabis, Pukhtoons, Sindhi, Balochs and Bengalis. These ethnicities would have been better off, had they been part of India where tribalism and feudalism was abolished and social democracy was the system of governance after independence.

Thus, we replaced British with Americans as external rulers and added civil-military bureaucracy as internal colonizers. Extreme poverty compelled the majority of people of East Pakistan, Bengalis, to win freedom from West Pakistan to form Bangladesh in 1971. To save the rest of Pakistan the ruling elite (civil-military bureaucracy and tribal/feudal lords) made the country’s first unanimous constitution in 1973. The constitution is the mixture of mutually exclusive systems: Islam, Socialism and democracy. The numeric strength of civil-military bureaucracy increased with the decrease in territory after the formation of Bangladesh. The involvement of Arabs was also increased in Punjab due to Islamic character of the constitution. USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan, 1979, increased the role of anti-communist Arabs and Americans more in our state and society for USA-backed Afghan Jehad.
Socially, we became more divided and poorer. Centuries old tribal moral clash, sectarianism, between Shia and Sunni surfaced due to the Sunni-Wahabi influence of Arabs. Economy went to the hands of mafias related to drugs, weapons and smuggling of other goods.

Military not only remained part of such economy but multiplied it forming cartels involving even basic industries related to sugar, wheat, cement etc. by the end of the rule of last military dictator Gen. Musharraf. Intermittent so-called democratic governments came and were sacked untimely in 1990’s but nothing changed for better as the governments had positions just, with power still rested with civil-military bureaucracy. 9/11 changed the world, so did the Pakistan. People got space for their power in governance. Gen. Musharraf failed to meet the interests of USA-led NATO forces engaged to eliminate Taliban from Afghanistan and bring stability there due to China and Russia’s pressures. So, Americans preferred democracy over dictatorship to meet its interests in Afghanistan. Elections of 2008 and NRO, after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, must be seen in this context. This is exactly where the Arabs and American interests diverged as far as Afghanistan is concerned. Arabs involvement depends on the post 2014 situation of Afghanistan when NATO and majority of American troops would have gone from there.

The Americans are going to stay for a long time in Afghanistan even after the NATO and majority of their troops leave by 2014. The first phase of their stay has been for bringing about stability and building institutions and infrastructure, and the second phase will be to expand their economic and strategic interests in the region. In this regard Americans have taken into confidence Russia, the Central Asian States, China, India and even Iran except Pakistan. Americans have assured them that no kind of terror will be supported or tolerated anymore in the region.

Americans want constant chaos in Pakistan come what may for the last six decades. It’s due the fact that Americans want the area stretched between Bay of Bengal to Baltic Sea leading to Europe disconnected economically through anarchy in Pakistan. If the Americans don’t do it, they would ultimately lose the control over 3/4 of the world. Relaxation of trade between India and Iran and China and Iran in the US/UN sanctions on Iran is not without reason in this context. That’s exactly why President Asif Ali Zardari, who had foreseen this duplicity a long ago, had to move fast to get the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline started and completed by the exit of US-led NATO forces by the end of 2014 from Afghanistan. The President Asif Ali Zardari had already taken the regional powers into confidence in this regard and will work more on it. The president Zardari has to work most on TAPI gas pipeline project in which Afghanistan is the corridor as well. Pakistan’s economy has become precariously dependent on energy and the energy is the dire need of teeming poor Pakistanis at the moment.

Pakistan and Iran can manage the required finance 7.5 billion US$ by bartering our rice with Iranian petroleum on which we spend more than 12 billion US$ annually. India is doing such with Iran already. Americans, in reaction, cannot give green signal to army to take over the country as Pakistan will not be united within a month and the regional fall out of that will never be tolerated by the regional powers- China, Russia and India. Americans cannot tolerate to lose their multi-billion US$ investment in Afghanistan. And this is what Americans know well and will not dare finance anymore military coup in Pakistan. Our devastating obsessions of ‘strategic depth’ instead of economic depth led us to extreme poverty, strategic death and extreme international isolation as no country likes to engage us economically except Iran which needs to sell its petroleum products to survive desperately, given the US backed UN sanctions.

The bureaucrats and generals with the help of judges have treated the teeming millions of poor Pakistanis in the absence of true politics and democracy pathetically. It’s pertinent to mention here that 85% of civil-military bureaucracy is Punjabi ethnically and they ruled 35 years directly and 25 years indirectly consuming almost all what poor people of Pakistan gave the state in the form of taxes. The required politics and political direction is now here very much here to go back never again. The upcoming general elections will be the decisive election between the democratic and dark forces of destruction. The people have always voted for politicians, not generals.
The futility of two referenda by Gen. Zia and Gen. Musharraf respectively are the enough of proof in our political history. The people, now, know that in these dictatorships the dark forces of destruction were developed and distributed within and without the country.

The religious/sectarian politics of Arabs in Pakistan and American duplicity towards the development of Pakistan are over now.

[url]http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/213449/[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Post-2014 Afghanistan?[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]

March 25, 2013 Iqbal Khan 1



The disturbance created by the Afghan resistance groups during Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel’s first trip to Kabul and the remarks by President Hamid Karzai that US-Nato forces were helping Taliban sustain their capacity to launch attacks with an objective of prolonging their stay in Afghanistan, were both interesting and intriguing.

Over the last four years, the international community and Afghan government have been going overboard to dispel fears that the planned withdrawal of international troops in 2014 will plunge the country into a new anarchic phase. There have been numerous pledges of continuing political, security and financial support beyond 2014.

For its part, the Karzai government has been boasting of putting in place requisite reforms to guarantee sustainable stability across Afghanistan in the post-withdrawal era. However, the reality on the ground and the predominant perception of what lies ahead contradict this claim.

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) have reached their target number of nearly 352,000; and now, at least theoretically, they lead nearly 90 percent of operations across the country. However, practically, the ANSF still faces Herculean challenges, and is likely to continue facing them well after 2014. Actually, it has a very limited independent operational capacity.
According to a Pentagon assessment, as of December 2012, only one of the ANSF’s 23 brigades was able to operate independently without air or other military support from foreign partners.

Moreover, attrition levels remain far too high, and there is a severe lack of enablers and air support assets. The ANSF are unlikely to make a significant difference in the overall security of the country. The forces’ limited capacity to maintain control over the areas under it is strengthening the fear of protracted conflict and insecurity. This environment is forcing the people to flee the country. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), 166,000 Afghans left their home in 2012. Since 2001, there are 460,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the war-torn country.

A number of Afghans are leaving the country forever. For example, the European Asylum Support Office statistics indicate that during 2011, 28,000 Afghans applied for asylum in the EU, which is the highest number in a single year since 2001.

Moreover, the UNHCR’s data records an increase of 34 percent in the number of Afghans seeking asylum in 44 industrialised countries. Alarmingly, there were four times more Afghans applying for political asylum worldwide in 2011 than in 2007.

Migration patterns, indeed, demonstrate that faith in the future stability of Afghanistan is on a slippery slide. This phenomenon is of particular concern for the neighbouring countries, which could face enhanced refugee pressure.
Besides this, the flight of capital has also picked up pace. According to the Central Bank of Afghanistan, the officially declared outflow of capital during the first quarter of 2012 was $4.6 billion, which is twice as much as the previous year. The real amount is hard to assess; the bank’s Deputy Governor has recently announced that it could be close to $8 billion a year. This equals twice the total assets of the bank or almost half the country’s GDP.
The announcement of military withdrawal has raised the fear that the flow of foreign aid to Afghanistan would reduce; hence, jeopardising the fragile gains in the areas of security, development and state-building. The data from the USAID reveals that despite international commitments and pledges, the withdrawal of foreign troops invariably leads to a considerable decrease in aid such as 60 percent in Bosnia between 1996 and 2001; 43 percent in Haiti between 1998 and 2002; and 69 percent in Iraq between 2003 and 2009.
To alleviate these fears, the Tokyo Conference was convened in July 2012; it was held to reassure that the planned military withdrawal did not mean total disengagement, which could leave the Afghans out on the street to fend for themselves. The package of $16 billion in aid through 2015 has only partly reassured the Afghans. Severe global economic crisis has led to cutbacks in the national budgets of the main donor countries. Given the existing feeling of fatigue among international donors, a substantial scaling back of aid flow beyond 2015 is a reality.

In fact, as of now, no concrete plans have been formulated for the post-transition period. The World Bank warned last year about the risk of a rapid decline in aid that “could lead to major macroeconomic instability and serious socioeconomic consequences.” The country, nevertheless, is likely to remain highly aid dependent for at least a decade after 2014 with a fiscal gap hovering around $7 to $8 billion.

The World Bank’s 2012 “Doing Business” report ranks Afghanistan at 160th out of 183 economies for the ease of doing business, a decline of six positions from last year’s ranking. It indicates the deteriorating business environment during the previous year, which is attributed to factors like corruption and poor law enforcement mechanisms. The trust of local and international investors is slowly fading. It is clear that many reforms need to be implemented before the Afghan government can tackle the economic and security challenges effectively. Both the transition and post-transition periods pose a series of great challenges.

While a hasty and insecure transition is in progress in Afghanistan, the neighbouring countries are concerned about the profile and trajectory of the post-2014 Afghanistan. The question is: as the US-Nato troops move out, will insecurity move in?

The withdrawal of international troops seems to have set in motion a stampede whose impact can only be speculated, and that too wildly. A speedy withdrawal is a welcome action, provided all necessary assets, funds and support are in place to fill the vacuum left by the international forces.
As a final word, the allies remain concerned that Washington may ignore its commitments regarding Afghanistan. The ongoing process of transition from the US-led Nato troops to ANSF has resurrected the ghost of the 1989 Soviet pullout, which is fuelling the fear of growing instability or a civil war after 2014.

The writer is an academic and a freelance columnist. Email: [email]wonderous101@gmail.com[/email]

[url]http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/columns/25-Mar-2013/post-2014-afghanistan[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Complexities of post 2014 Afghanistan[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]
March 26, 2013

Iqbal Khan

Rumpus created by the Afghan resistance groups during the US Secretary of Defense Hagel’s first trip to Kabul and the remarks by President Karzai that NATO forces were helping Taliban in sustaining their capacity to launch attacks with an objective of prolonging the stay of occupation forces in Afghanistan were quite interesting and intriguing.

Over the last four years or so, the international community and Afghan government have been going overboard to dispel fears that the planned withdrawal of international troops in 2014 will plunge the country in to a new anarchic phase. There have been numerous pledges for continuing political, security and financial support beyond 2014. For its part, Afghan government has been boasting of putting in place requisite reforms to guarantee sustainable stability all across Afghanistan in the post withdrawal era.
However, the reality on the ground, and the predominant perception of what lays ahead, contradicts all these claims.

Afghan National Security Forces have reached their target number of nearly 352,000; and now at least theoretically, they lead nearly 90% of operations across the country. However, practically, ANSF still faces Herculean challenges, and is likely to continue facing them well after 2014. Actually, it has a very limited independent operational capacity. According to the Pentagon assessment, as of December 2012, only one of the Afghan National Army’s 23 brigades was able to operate independently without air or other military support from foreign partners. Moreover, attrition levels remain far too high and there is a severe lack of enablers and air support assets. The ANSF are unlikely to make a significant difference in the overall security of the country. Limited capacity of the ANSF to maintain control over the areas that it has taken over is strengthening the fear of protracted conflict and insecurity.

This environment is prompting the people to flee their country. Lack of confidence in the country’s future stability radiates an aura of despondency that is pushing out the people. Exodus includes people of all classes, rural and urban, unskilled persons as well as those from skilled white collar class. And security is unlikely to improve substantially in the near future.

Estimates by the ‘Norwegian Refugee Council’ indicate that during 2012, 166 000 Afghans left their home. Since 2001, there are 460,000 internally displaced persons in Afghanistan. A number of Afghans are also leaving the country for good. Statistics by ‘European Asylum Support Office’ indicate that during 2011, 28,000 Afghans applied for asylum in the EU, which is the highest number in a single year since 2001. Data by the UNHCR also records an increase of 34% in the number of Afghans seeking asylum in 44 industrialized countries. Alarmingly, there were four times more Afghans applying for political asylum worldwide in 2011 than in 2007. Migration patterns demonstrate that faith in the future stability of Afghanistan is on a slippery downslide. This phenomenon is of particular concern for the neighbouring countries, which could face enhanced refugee pressure.

Alongside the Human Resources drain, flight of capital has also picked up pace. According to Central Bank of Afghanistan, the officially declared out flow of capital during the first quarter of 2012 was $4.6 billion, which is twice as much as the previous year. The real amount is hard to assess; Deputy Governor of Central Bank has recently guessed that it could be close to $8 billion a year. This equals twice the total assets of the Central Bank or almost half the country’s GDP.

The announcement of military withdrawal has raised the fears that foreign aid flow to Afghanistan would also reduce, hence jeopardizing the fragile gains in the areas of security, development and state-building. Data from the USAID indicates that despite international commitments and pledges, withdrawal of foreign troops invariably leads to a considerable decrease in aid, examples are: 60% in Bosnia between 1996 and 2001; 43% in Haiti between 1998 and 2002; and 69% in Iraq between 2003 and 2009.

To alleviate these fears, Tokyo conference was convened in July 2012 to reassure that the planned military withdrawal did not mean total disengagement that could leave Afghans out on the street to fend for themselves. Package of $16 billion in aid through 2015 has only partly reassured the Afghans. Severe global economic crisis has led to cut-backs in the national budgets of the main donor countries. Given the existing feeling of fatigue amongst international donors, a substantial scaling back of aid flow beyond 2015 is a reality. In fact, as of now, no clear and concrete plans have been formulated for the post-transition period. The World Bank warned last year about the risk of a rapid decline of aid that ‘could lead to major macroeconomic instability and serious socioeconomic consequences’. The country is likely to remain highly aid dependent for at least a decade after 2014, with a fiscal gap hovering around $ 7 to 8 billion.

The World Bank’s 2012 “Doing Business Report” ranks Afghanistan at 160th out of 183 economies for the ease of doing business, a decline of six positions from last year’s ranking. This indicates deterioration of the business environment during the previous year, which is attributed to the factors like security, corruption and poor enforcement mechanisms. National and international investors’ and entrepreneurs’ trust is slowly fading away. It is clear that many reforms need to be implemented before the Afghan government can tackle the challenges of the economy and security effectively and independently. Both the transition and post transition periods pose a series of great challenges.

While a hasty and insecure transition is in progress in Afghanistan, neighbouring countries are wondering as to the profile and trajectory of post 2014 Afghanistan. Question on every one’s mind is: as ISA/NATO troops move out, will insecurity move in? The withdrawal of international troops seems to have set in motion a stampede whose impact can only be speculated, and that too wildly. Speedy withdrawal is a welcome action provided necessary assets, funding and support are in place to fill the vacuum left by the international forces.

The allies remain concerned that the US may ignore its commitments in the context of Afghanistan. The ongoing process of withdrawal of international troops and the transfer of security to the ANSF have resurrected the ghosts of the 1989 Soviet pullout and is fuelling the fear of growing instability or even a new civil war after 2014.

(Writer is a Consultant policy and Strategic Response, IPRI)


[url]http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/10/[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Karzai: obstacle to peace[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]

March 27, 2013 1



A top Pakistan Foreign Office official has levelled a grievous charge against Afghan President Hamid Karzai: “Right now, he is the biggest impediment to the peace process...In trying to look like a saviour he is taking Afghanistan straight to hell,” he told Reuters on Monday. It should be understood that there must be incontrovertible, solid reasons for a high-ranking diplomat, known for making cautious utterances, to accuse the head of state of another country in such harsh terms. After all, Afghanistan is not only Pakistan’s neighbour, but is also closely and inextricably linked to it in more than one ways, each vying for being characterised as the most deep-rooted and the most significant. Ethnic homogeneity – the same Pashtuns tribes living on either side of the Durand Line, sharing family ties and, thus, joys and sorrows, speaking the same language and moving across the border freely; the commonality of religious factor and its outgrowth culture tends to cement their relations even further. In the war-on-terror context, as reflected in the sufferings of the Afghan people, in particular the Pashtuns who constitute the bulk of the Taliban, it is idle to assume that their kith and kin in Pakistan’s tribal belt could have remained aloof and insensitive to the ongoing tragic drama across Afghanistan. Pakistan has suffered most in siding with the US in the war, as its own ethnic Pashtuns felt outraged at our help that was being targeted against their co-ethnics.

Pakistan even today hosts over two million Afghan refugees (at one time the figure touched even four million or five, according to different estimates), who entered the country after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1989, most lingered on, and then their number swelled as fallout of the war on terror. Then, being landlocked, it would be too hazardous for the country to put the age-old commercial relations in jeopardy.

It is hard to fathom whose agenda President Karzai could be following to throw spanner in the works of efforts to bring about reconciliation in the war-torn and ethnically torn Afghanistan. It is a measure of the confusion that prevails in his mind that his stalling of the process, with the exit of foreign troops not far away, is, in fact, thwarting his own agenda of survival in the Afghan milieu. With that prop gone, the fear of Foreign Office official that there will be “complete chaos in Afghanistan if settlement is not reached by 2014” looks to be a terrible reality. Islamabad, apart from approaching the Taliban, is also establishing contact with the Northern Alliance, its erstwhile enemy, to make sure that the two could forget the hostilities and rancour of the past to move together to create a happier Afghanistan where progress and prosperity are the order the day. Thus, President Karzai should realise that Pakistan’s role is positive and crucial in arriving at the goal. Secretary of State John Kerry whose country has all along promoted India in Afghanistan would not otherwise have acknowledged that Islamabad’s role was indispensable to ensuring peace and stability in the post-withdrawal period.

[url]http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/editorials/27-Mar-2013/karzai-obstacle-to-peace[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Tremendous loss!
[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]
March 28, 2013 11


The war on terror, now in its 12thyear, has entailed a financial cost that runs into, according to some estimates, trillions of dollars, but, perhaps, more important and, in fact, more painful is its multidimensional impact on human life. Looking at, for instance, the Pakistani scene, one would feel aghast at the devastated families, which were leading a happy, comfortable life when their breadwinners were alive and earning; their suffering now renders one speechless. While the dead are often buried in mutilated shapes, the injured, far greater in number, bear the scar of the bomb blasts for life not just on their bodies, but on their minds as well. Similarly, the destruction caused by the terrorist attacks is too difficult to measure, both in physical and psychological terms.

Leaving aside Iraq and Afghanistan where the local population witnessed hundreds of thousands of their kith and kin killed in the war on terror, Pakistan, of all other countries that are ranged against the militants, has suffered the most. According to the figures placed before the Supreme Court at Islamabad on Tuesday, the total number of casualties in Fata alone has been frighteningly high and the fight continues. At a hearing of the missing persons’ case by the apex court, the joint report of the Military Intelligence and the Inter-Services Intelligence put the total number of both the dead and the injured at about 49,000 and that includes the members of the armed forces as well as the civilians since Pakistan became an ally of the US in the war. As the militants had, in 2007-2008, challenged article 265 of the constitution by raising private armies and launched terrorist attacks, the soldiers took them on and, in the process, 1,479 of them have laid down their lives in defence of the country from 2008 to 2013. Other 5,745 have been wounded during this period. The number of victims belonging to the Frontier Constabulary comes to 675 dead and 1,978 injured. The confirmed casualties of the terrorists have, in these less than five years, been 4,279. They launched 233 suicide attacks, fired 9,257 rockets and made 4,256 bomb attacks. The economy lies in a shambles.

The above figures would send a chill down the spine of the people even those living away from the scene, making them realise that the country is at war. Thankfully, by their indiscriminate attacks, alike on the fighting forces and the civilians, the terrorists have alienated themselves from a large section of the country’s population in the country. With their support base having thinned out, the agencies believe that the intensity of their assaults has come down. The greatest fear at this point in time is that they might pull themselves up and manage to carry out a spate of suicide attacks in order to obstruct the general elections. Thus, the urgent need is that the intelligence agencies step up the information gathering work and the rest of the security forces get ready to respond to the challenge.

[url]http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/editorials/28-Mar-2013/tremendous-loss[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Endgame in Afghanistan[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]

March 29, 2013 7



The Afghan regime has upped the ante with Pakistan, with Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin saying that Afghanistan was shocked with its ‘complacency’ in the nascent peace process and was ready to work without its help. Mr Ludin’s statement was followed by an announcement of the Afghan Foreign Ministry that the visit of 11 Afghan army officers scheduled to take part in a military exercise in Quetta was being cancelled in protest against alleged cross-border shelling. The involvement of both the Foreign Ministry and the Afghan National Army indicates US approval of this development. Mr Ludin’s statement is the first time Afghanistan has suggested the possibility of going it alone. Pakistani centrality to the Afghan peace process has been so far a necessary assumption, but the Karzai regime keeps reverting to an anti-Pakistan stance. If Kabul does not give up accusing Islamabad on flimsy grounds and making unfriendly gestures, we should have no hesitation in sending back the millions of Afghans who have taken refuge here, whether they like it or not.

The Karzai regime, based on the Northern Alliance, has been pro-India and hesitant to trust Pakistan ever since the Soviet invasion. It also seems too much of a coincidence that Afghanistan has wrought itself up to its present frenzy at a time when Pakistan has just installed a caretaker Prime Minister and is heading towards elections. Not only does the new Prime Minister still have to choose a cabinet, including a foreign minister, but he also has hardly had time to consider the issue.

The new Prime Minister must not come under pressure, particularly from the Afghan government. The caretaker government may have as its primary task the holding of elections, but if it can take the foreign policy in the right direction, away from an excessive reliance on the US, and towards long lasting stability in the region, based on neighbourly cooperation and partnership, it will be performing a national service. As the incoming government will be the one which will preside over Pakistan’s fortunes when the US withdrawal takes place, any help it gets from the caretakers will be helpful.

[url]http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/opinions/columns[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Fall of American & Nato forces[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]

Muhammad Daheem

North Atlantic Treaty Organization has made a deal with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to move its arms and ammunition out of Afghanistan north through Central Asia and Russia. A part of equipment is expected to go through Pakistani ports and by air. It is just possible America may avoid Pakistan and select alternative transit route.

Obama’s announcement to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan shows the signs of fall of American imperialism. Nato has already announced that it is withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan in 2014. Canadian government seems to be in a hurry to exit from Afghanistan. New Zealand is also keen to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan early. Australia would withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan by 2014. It has already lost 39 soldiers in Afghanistan. Its 249 troops have been wounded. Australia and New Zealand, though non-Nato countries, also joined the invaders to defend the cause of imperialistic forces but all efforts ended in a smoke. The collective force of coalition forces of 4 continents could not defeat the freedom fighters in Afghanistan. Australia, according to Guardian, has the 10th largest military force in Afghanistan. It has announced withdrawal of two-thirds of its soldiers from Afghanistan by the end of 2013.

Majority of the contingent will be pulled out from the international military base at Tarin Kowt after its closure in Uruzgan province. According to Stephen Smith, the Australian Defense Minister, about 1,000 of the 1,550 Australian troops in Afghanistan would be withdrawn during 2013. The prolonged war is unpopular among the masses in Australia Britain has recently opened an embassy in Kyrgyzstan for the first time while it already keeps an embassy in Tajikistan. A British Ministry of Defense Study says that Afghan war is “unwinnable in military terms.” The frustrated British forces are trying to “impose an ideology” foreign to the people of that region. The stage, after the failure of the imperialistic forces in their mission, is already set for the reduction of the British troops.

Obama has unveiled plans to accelerate the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan. The United States of America would withdraw 34,000 soldiers out of 66,000 thousand from Afghanistan within a year. American objective is to withdraw almost all combat troops by the end of 2014.

Obama’s announcement to withdraw half the US force in Afghanistan shows his intention to save his skin prior to a long-term defeat. Nonetheless, the White House claims that it would continue to support puppet regime of Afghanistan.

It is presumed that war in Afghanistan will be over by the end of the next year. American and Nato forces are leaving Afghanistan after receiving severe shocks in the vast battlefield and unbelievable financial losses during last eleven years.

The White House is in a hurry to get rid of this war. A large number of Americans died in war. Several committed suicide. Several thousand soldiers have been wounded since Bush launched the US assault in October 2001. It is not surprising that majority of the Americans have grown weary of the war. It is almost certain that freedom fighters will occupy the land soon after the departure of the American and Nato forces. Not to talk of past, even present and future seem to be on the Afghans’ side.

It is now merely a matter of the pace of the withdrawal. America now wants to withdraw a big number of troops in a short span. America’s final plans are still uncertain and of dubious nature. As a matter of fact Obama does not have a clear strategy for Afghanistan for the future because of its failure in that part of the world. Nonetheless, the White House wants to make show of its presence in Afghanistan with a symbolic number of soldiers. It seems to be almost impossible.

American and Nato forces’ morale is already at its lowest. They are impatiently waiting for the final withdrawal schedule. Finally, the old wolf has lost its teeth to wage a war against the people of Afghanistan. It is finalizing withdrawal at a large scale because of the complexity of the situation.
American generals want that their presence in Afghanistan should be felt one way or the other. It should be between 15,000 to 20,000 soldiers. Obama, on the other hand, is thinking to withdraw all its forces from this region for good, without leaving behind even 3000 troops.

It seems that the US will accelerate drawdown of its forces in the summer and fall. The puppet regime in Kabul is still negotiating agreement with American and Nato forces.

According to American plan “fewer than half of the 66,000 U.S. troops will remain in Afghanistan next year for advising and training Afghan troops.” Out of about 800 U.S. and Nato bases 600 have already been shut down or handed over to the puppet regime in Afghanistan. It is obvious that foreign invaders are “attempting to support a corrupt and unpopular central government” against freedom movement.

These freedom fighters have strong support of the public and safe havens to fight against the foreign invaders for years and years to come. The war-torn country has serious financial problems with no economic base.

The fall of the present puppet regime of Afghanistan seems to be imminent just after the invaders return from Afghanistan. The invaders are risking their lives “in pursuit of an unachievable objective.” The war in Afghanistan will be over by the end of 2014. Nonetheless, the US claims that it will continue to train and assist so-called Afghan troops.

It seems that Afghanistan after a short span of chaos will be a sovereign state in 2015 and it will be in control of the militants. Militants are strengthening their position in Afghanistan. They are hardly 25 kilometers away from Kabul and are in a position to attack Kabul easily. The invaders’ efforts are to support and give training to the present corrupt and puppet regime and its troops.

Several Afghan citizens have accused the American and Nato forces for torturing and killing civilians. Ironically, Karzai has blamed the U.S. and Nato forces for “trying to forge an agreement” against political opponents.
Obama says that the US has “turned the tide of war” in Afghanistan. Similar type of rhetoric was used by Nixon when America was facing defeat in Vietnam. Majority of the Americans are against the war in Afghanistan. For more than a decade Americans have been watching the American rulers involved in a futile war in Afghanistan.

The imperialistic forces gave it the name “War on terror” and attacked Afghanistan. Then Obama and his team gave it the name “war of necessity”. Finally, after losing large number of troops, suffering huge casualties and financial losses they say, “It is the US’s forgotten war.”

Americans have wasted billions of dollars in Afghanistan. It is now acknowledged throughout the world that Afghan “war was unwinnable from the beginning.” It is almost certain that freedom fighters will be in power after the departure of the invaders. Americans are speeding up their withdrawal to avoid further losses.

The puppet regime depends upon imperialistic forces for artillery, air support and intelligence information. About 66,000 American forces, struggling for their temporary survival, may start leaving Afghanistan in spring and summer, rather than in the fall. History tells us that Afghanistan is the graveyard of the great empires. It has kept its reputation up to the mark.


[url]http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Are Afghans ready for security switch?
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Muhammad Arif Shafi

On February 11, some 25 containers from Afghanistan entered into Pakistan through Chaman border while 25 others crossed border at Torkham next day. Pakistani officials on first day said it was a routine movement of vehicles but US officials later confirmed that it was indeed start of withdrawing process of international forces from landlocked Afghanistan, on a test basis. The process of withdrawal of US and other Nato forces is scheduled for the end of 2014.
The US had withdrawn some 33,000 soldiers from Afghanistan last year, leaving about 66,000 troops. It is estimated that alone US would move almost 50,000 vehicles and 100,000 containers during the whole process, excluding other Nato members states’ vehicles and containers.

Gen. Joseph F Dunford, the new US Commander of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, replacing Gen. John Allen, has assigned with the task to complete pullout process at a crucial time of ending 11 years long war. Gen. Dunford has to face the big challenge of leaving strong and well trained Afghan forces too.

It was surprising for the world, particularly Afghans, when few days back a US government official said they could withdraw all forces from Afghanistan by 2014. According to some reports, US wants to left behind 10,000 or less soldiers in war-torn country. Afghan President Hamid Karzai was on his official visit at that time to United States for ‘crucial talks’ on security transition and post 2014 relations. Some of the observers called the statement as a tactic to pressurize Karzai government to soften terms of security agreements, especially the US forces’ immunity issue.

In fact the Obama administration is on fast track to call American soldiers back home. “There’s no reason why Americans should die when Afghans are perfectly capable of defending their own country,” said President Barack Obama before his re-election during his debate with Republican challenger Mitt Romney. There is no rule, no law to justify, US leaving Iraq after ‘finding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)’ and ‘liberating Iraqi people’ but it was just in the American interest. Now if Obama says Afghans are capable to safeguard their homeland and American forces can leave, again no one can deny it.

Common American is asking about wastage of his tax money in an endless and useless war while death toll of US military has already passed 2,000 last year. Those are very basic reasons the US government want to withdraw as soon as possible.

Common Afghans, especially working in government and private sector have already started worrying about their future. Somehow they are of the opinion that Taliban would regain power there. They have their own reasons for that thinking too. Requesting anonymity, an employee of USAID Funded Project in Ministry of Law at capital Kabul city said most of the NGOs and other private organizations had already made downsizing up to 50 percent of their employees and it happened just as the United States had reduced funding.
“Frankly speaking, we have not planned to stand by our own feet on the organizational basis, because all of us are fond of donations and aid without putting us in troubles of work for the last one decade,” he said, adding he feared that he would lose his job today, while he could not think of post 2014 situation.

On February 12, US President during his first State of the Union address, of his second term, announced a pullout of 34,000 American soldiers, more than half of present US strength, from Afghanistan this year.

Security situation in Afghanistan is unsatisfactory. The 11-year long and tireless war has changed nothing much. For international soldiers it is just a military duty while for Afghan forces the same is a source of income.
“I know, we are the losers from both aspect, if I kill a Talib or he kills me because we are both Afghans,” a policeman from Nangarhar province, who is serving at a police post in Afghan capital, told while requesting not to be named.

He added that he knew he was serving for his country in good faith but it also confused him sometimes. “Then I think, it is better for me than spending life as refugee in Pakistan or Iran,” he said.

How one soldier can win a war with confusion in his mind? Afghan forces called Taliban their brother, no wonder as their President called militants ‘my brothers on several occasion.

Yes, one party has not shown confusion so far, the Taliban. The terror attacks carried out in various parts of the country, especially in Kabul, shows that Taliban can strike anywhere they want.

In September last year, the resisting elements attacked a British-run Camp Bastion in southwest Helmand province. It was said that US lost its worst airpower in the attack after Vietnam War.

Nothing so much said about a very serious issue in US forces and that is number of suicide cases. In June 2012, the Pentagon had confirmed to BBC that the suicide rate had increased up to almost one case per day. It was said that from the beginning of the year till June 03, 2012 total number of suicides among active-duty forces was 154, which was 130 during same period last year. A spokeswoman of the Pentagon called the problem as one of the urgent problems and they were deeply concerned about it. Some of the reports have also said that suicides cases had surpassed combat deaths in 2012.

More than 50 coalition soldiers were killed last year in insider attacks, where Afghan soldiers turn their guns against their foreign partners. No matter what is the official version of those ‘green on blue’ attacks from Afghan and US sides, but the fact is it has a deep impact on moral and morale. It has also created a mutual mistrust and damaged the training process of Afghan forces.
Although no official admits that Taliban have infiltrated Afghan forces but those frequent incidents have no other justification. If Afghan forces in very limited number can raise their arms against their allies and commanding forces, while international forces are present there, the number can increase after complete withdrawal to act against the interests of foreign forces. No one knew what strategy has been made for that and what is possible in this regard too.

Although total number of Afghan forces has reached almost 350,000 but of course they are not fully trained or equipped. The ISAF has planned to train Afghan security personnel by 2014, for complete security hand over to Afghans from international forces. The foreign forces are heading toward a greater role of security in Afghans’ hands, despite the worsening situation in the country.

The insider killings have also put a bad impression on the training process. The target of desired number of Afghan forces have been achieved but the training they get in this situation, will be not of that level as planned. The outgoing Gen. Allen has admitted that Afghan forces ‘still need much work to become an effective and self-sufficient fighting machine’.

Besides the training, provision of equipments, air power and financial support to maintain Afghan forces after 2014, are matters of great concern for Afghan government and it has asked for international support in this regard on several occasions.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has given the Afghan High Peace Council (HPC) a formal role in process of freeing Afghan Taliban, captured by Pakistan as a goodwill gesture and facilitating the peace talks between Taliban and Afghan government/United States. Pakistan has released 26 Taliban leaders so far, following request from Afghan President and the HPC.

According to media reports, Afghan Taliban leaders, Afghan government officials and Maulana Fazal Rehman, a Pakistani religious leader, were all in Doha, Qatar for peace talks recently. Peace talks with Taliban have been started for the last some time but it has seen no breakthrough so far.
The bigger question is that whether in all those circumstances, where almost 1, 20, 000 international soldiers with latest arms and air support could not bring peace and stability in Afghanistan in 11 years, then how the Afghans alone can achieve the goal? The US and several countries have pledged support for Afghanistan after 2014, but they would be financial support only and during this one decade long war, they know they could not win there with money.

The US and allies have already withdrawn from Iraq and that country has not seen a single day of peace after their invasion and now pullout. Incidents of bomb blasts and killings are happening on daily basis in Iraq in shape of ethnic violence. Afghans and the world are concerned how Afghanistan will be different from Iraq.

Afghanistan needs a sincere effort political settlement, with participation of all Afghan factions and neighbor countries on-board, for durable peace in that country and region.

[url]http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/40/[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Pak-Afghan must not derail[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]

Once a contractor for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)--now a princely President of Afghanistan-- Hamid Karzai continuously vomits out venom against Pakistan-a country he often described as ‘inseparable twin brother’. His actual authority outside Kabul is said to be so limited that he is often derided as the ‘Mayor of Kabul’. Amidst growing frustration and discontent over failing to reforms outside of the region under the influence of various local leaders around Kabul, President Karzai and his administration, in a bid to salvage their tarnished image, unleashed a Pakistan-bashing campaign. In fact, he had sown seeds of hatred against Pakistan amongst the Afghan people. Karzai’ journey to Kabul Palace from the US hotel studded and punctuated with betrayals starting from the killing of the friends and foes alike in the Palace. Having been surrounded by accusations of nepotism, widespread corruption, electoral fraud, and the alleged involvement of his late half brother Ahmed Wali Karzai in the drug trade, President Karzai, in fact, is fast losing his hold on Afghan affairs, particularly his role in the US-led peace process initiated to establish a durable peace in the country before the pullout of the US and NATO troops by the 2014-end. The entire world including the UN believes and sees regional power Pakistan as critical to stabilizing Afghanistan. The Karzai Administration, once heavily dependent on Pakistan, has initiated a blame-game against Islamabad. The fact of the matter is; the Karzai-led Administration has not been cooperating with Pakistan in repatriating the members of the TTP given safe havens in Afghanistan-an act that has created multiple problems for Pakistan. The Foreign Office on Thursday expressed concern over continued presence of safe havens of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Kunar and Nooristan areas of Afghanistan from where these elements are carrying out undesirable activities against Pakistan. Yet Pakistan, in the larger interest of regional peace, has extended its support to the Afghan peace process; releasing all high profile Afghan Taliban-a gesture never been reciprocated by the Karzai Administration resulting thereby Pakistan is continuously facing massive loss of men and material.

To be exact, over 49000 people have lost their lives in terrorist attacks. The causalities in Pakistan have out-numbered the loss of life in the Afghan war on terror. Notwithstanding, the loss Pakistan has to withstand in the war against Soviet Union in Afghanistan. In return, President Karzai, having attained a lifestyle of Mughal King, is sending a rude shock from across the Durand Line over Pakistan’s ‘complacency’ in the nascent Afghan peace process and is ready to work without Islamabad’s help on reconciliation. Kabul’s Deputy Foreign Minister goes on to say ‘We here in Kabul are in a bit of a state of shock at once again being confronted by the depth of Pakistan’s complacency, we are just very disappointed.’ Even the Kabul government has cancelled visit of its army officers to Pakistan. The fallout in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is ill-affordable for the durable peace in the region. Beyond any doubt, the stability in Afghanistan is interlinked with the peace in Pakistan thus two states must not forget-the solution to Afghan instability needs a joint effort to wipe out terrorists operating on the both sides of the border. None of the two can capitalize on instability in either side. President Karzai, however, must understand that leaders of Afghan Taliban if at all are reluctant to talk to the government it is just because he has been installed by the foreign forces to serve their interests rather than serving the people of Afghanistan. Secondly, Taliban are aware that the peace process is aimed at giving a new lease of life to corrupt presidency. Taliban are sovereign sons of the Afghan soil do understand the ground realities, hardly need any foreign dictation, thus their continued reluctance to stay away from the government has nothing to do with Pakistan. President Karzai, having enjoyed his two terms in heavily guarded office, is no more acceptable. Thus instead pouring out venom against Pakistan, President Karzai should concentrate on the political affairs of his country the way he wants. Better if he understands the strategic importance of Pakistan thus should pursue the follow-up of the London talks. Best way to remove the concerns of the two countries is to communicate through every possible channel rather than slamming the door on each other.

[url]http://www.thefrontierpost.com/category/46/[/url]

[CENTER][U][B][FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="5"]Afghanistan’s problem[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][/U][/CENTER]

April 02, 2013
Ahmad Noor Waziri 1



Afghanistan is a graveyard of super powers, no doubt, but it has also become a cemetery of Afghans’ peace, prosperity and stability. Afghanistan has become prey of the power politics, no one can deny the fact, but it has also been the victim of Afghan internal dissension and antagonism. The geographical misfortune coupled with the internal division of Afghan society on ideological and ethnic lines pave the way for the intervention of power politics inside Afghanistan. The conflicting ideologies and the clashing visions in Afghan society create a vacuum and a situation which is being filled and exploited by the greedy power politics. The primary cause of Afghan imbroglio is, thus, internal and its solution lies inside Afghanistan.

Internally, three main forces are active in Afghanistan with their different agenda and objectives; religious conservatism, liberal secularism and ethnic nationalism. The perpetual struggle between these forces thus obscures the prospect of stable and peaceful Afghanistan.

Ideologically, the Afghan society has been deeply divided into liberal seculars and religious conservatives. The liberals want a democratic state with its glaring feature of modernity on the western lines for which the conservatives are not yet ready to embrace. On the contrary, they want a theocratic state with strict adherence to Sharia law, for which the liberals are not ready to accept. Though in minority, these two groups have practically hijacked the whole society. The majority Afghans are the helpless and hopeless common people whose first priority is peace and bread. Unfortunately, no one is ready to give them peace and uplift their standard of life.

Ethnically, Afghan society has been divided into Pashtun (42percent), Tajik (27percent) Hazara (9percent) and Uzbak (9percent) etc. The two major ethnic groups, Pashtun and Tajik want political supremacy and strive hard to get control over the political power of the country.

These three forces and their struggle are not new phenomena in Afghanistan but it has a long history but suffice it say that it was in late 1970s that the genie of liberalism once again came out of the bottle when the People Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) tried to implement a liberal and Marxist-Leninist agenda in Afghanistan. As a reaction, the forces of conservatism once again came out to oppose the new communist agenda of PDPA. This internal struggle between the forces of liberalism and conservatism pave the way for the cold war power politics. USSR sided with forces of liberalism while USA helped the forces of conservatism. The decade (1979-89) long war destroyed the country’s peace and stability.

It was ended with victory of the forces of conservatism. However, this victory brought another menace on Afghanistan when the forces of conservatism took the color of ethnic nationalism. A civil war started primarily between Tajiks Burhanudin Rabbani, Ahmad Shah Massoud and Pashtun Gulkbadin Hekmathyar. It was a struggle for political power and supremacy. The atrocities of the civil war gave birth to a new force in the form of Taliban.
Taliban movement was a blend of religious conservatism and Pashtun nationalism. Hence, it faced the combined opposition and resistance of liberalism and ethnic nationalism of Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek. Surprisingly, this time, USA joined the forces of liberalism against the conservative regime of Taliban (1994-2001). Though Taliban have been ousted of power, but the struggle is still going in the Afghanistan. In nutshell, the divided Afghan society and the internal tag of war between forces of conservatism, liberalism and ethnic nationalism fuelled by external power politics make the vicious circle which is the major source of Afghanistan instability.

The Afghan society should take the initiative and should focus on realignment, readjustments and reconciliation of the opposing tendencies and conflicting ideologies. It should reach at some compromise for national integration and social solidarity. The ethnic groups should learn peaceful co existence. The liberals should understand the ground realities and the Afghan traditional social and cultural set up in which there is a little room for the western style modernity and liberalism at this stage.

The religious conservatives should realise the needs and requirements of the 21st century. The world community should play the role of mediator, facilitator and honest broker in the Afghans reconciliation process. Change is desirable and it must come, but it should come by the consent of the people instead of coercion. Afghanistan has suffered a lot, and Pakistan has also suffered greatly. The people of both the countries deserve peace and a prosperous life and they should have it.

The writer is former youth parliamentarian from Fata. Email: [email]ahmadwaziri@hotmail.com[/email]

[url]http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/opinions/columns[/url]