Future of Afghanistan

[Salman Sheikh]

Insisting that President Karzai promise, cross-my-heart-and-hope-to-die, to clean up corruption in Afghanistan, NATO powers led by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton set a course at the Tokyo Conference last weekend which conspicuously avoided past failures. The omission all but guarantees civil war when US forces leave Afghanistan. By failing to address the major source of corruption in civilian assistance - 40 and 50 percent profit margins for western contractors and their subsidiaries before any money hits the ground in-country - the rhetoric indicates that the aid will be delivered along the lines of the present failed model. This model has resulted in 60% of Afghan children presently being in various stages of starvation, as MSNBC reported this year, despite pockets of improvement which are routinely seized upon by the NATO coalition as proof that progress is being made.
The definitive report on aid efficiency in Afghanistan is the one commonly referred to as the ACBAR report, written by Matt Waldman of Oxfam UK. ACBAR is an alliance international aid agencies working in Afghanistan. The report, "Falling Short: Aid Effectiveness in Afghanistan"informs us that:
"Forty per cent of aid spending returns to rich countries in corporate profits and consultant costs."
Oxfam International writes:

"Vast sums of aid are lost in corporate profits of contractors and sub-contractors, which can be as high as 50% on a single contract."
Another little-known fact is that fully half of all previous assistance has gone toward training the army and police, so that of the $60 billion figure which is often given as the sum total of civilian assistance since 2001, $30 billion has been actual civilian assistance. If this pattern holds, out of the $16 billion pledged last weekend, only $8 billion will be actual civilian aid, and nearly half of that will be gobbled up by corporate profits for American contractors and their subsidiaries. That then works out to about $130 per Afghan for the coming years, which if the past is any indicator, will be spent on many projects Afghans do not want and never asked for, and to finance the Karzai government, at less than $1 billion per year.
This is against a backdrop of $4000 per capita in military spending every year. Four thousand dollars for every man, woman, and child, an utter fortune in Afghan terms. This is in a country where most people struggle to survive on less than a dollar a day, and the question for most people each day is not what, but if, you and your children are going to eat.
Put another way, the amount we (NATO under USA) spend on military operations in Afghanistan every month is almost as much as the entire GDP of the country for a year, $15 billion according to UN data. General Barry McCaffrey called the rate of US spending on the military side a "burn rate" of about $9 billion a month, back in 2008, and it is more now.
What the Tokyo Conference portends is that when conditions have remained miserable years hence, the news story will be the corruption of the Karzai government, which takes in a fraction of the amount given to western contractors.
Half of Afghans still have no easy access to safe drinking water, which is partly responsible for one out of five children dying before the age of five. It is still one of the most dangerous countries in the world to become a mother, with one of highest percentages of women dying in childbirth. And we remember just last winter at least 23 children froze to death in the Kabul refugee camps due to lack of blankets, wood or coal, and hats, mittens, and warm children's clothes.
What this level of poverty means is that the country will be ripe for civil war. That is because warlords will have their pick of the 80% unemployed and semi-starving young men in the countryside who will have no choice but to choose sides in order to eat. The warlords and Taliban, who are viewed as just another kind of warlord by most Afghans, will be able to hire guns with, believe it or not, money we gave them. The Tierney report, by the congressional Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, chaired by Rep. John Tierney, found that up to $360 million per year was being handed over by the Pentagon to insurgent groups or their warlord front men for the safe passage of truck convoys carrying US military supplies, from one trucking contract alone. The figure dwarfs even opium profits reaped by the Taliban.
No one knows this better than Secretary of State Hillary Clinton herself, who is quoted in the Tierney report, entitled "Warlord, Inc." Clinton testified before Congress in 2009 that:
""You offload a ship in Karachi [Pakistan] and by the time whatever it is -- you know, muffins for our soldiers' breakfasts or anti-IED equipment -- gets to where we're headed, it goes through a lot of hands. And one of the major sources of funding for the Taliban is the protection money."
To make things worse, Afghanistan is undergoing a demographic "youth bulge," in the words of sociologist Gunnar Heinsohn, of enormous proportions, in which 68% of the population is under age 25, and nearly half is under age 14. This makes Afghanistan one of the youngest countries in the world. Heinsohn's research indicates that youthful populations and few productive activities is an explosive combination, even without the influx of arms and money into the hands of strongmen, of all stripes, whose business has been war for 30 years.
Fortunately, most young men in Afghanistan, and I focus on the men because it is they who will be deciding whether to fight, do not like fighting, nor the Taliban. They are of a generation that is war weary to the bone, both men and women.
With this bleak picture, is there any hope? The answer is yes, but not through more of the same. In Afghanistan, little-noted and little-sung, is a large community of indigenous civil society organizations which build roads, improve irrigation, clear canals, plant trees, and the host of projects, mostly small, which actually improve peoples' lives. As much as possible it is done by employing Afghan labor. The work can be dangerous, as is any work in a war zone. But these Afghan aid workers are among the most dedicated, selfless, and effective workers in the country. The civil society organizations operate on a shoestring, and have effective accounting systems in place.
A bridge between international donors and these organizations, and other proven conduits, may be the key to the legions of unemployed youth, soon to be coming of age, having any hope. Young Afghans of both sexes want badly to go to school, gain skills, interact with the world, and excel in international sports. Only ten years after emerging from the darkness of the Taliban era, young Afghans have won an amazing assortment of trophies and prizes, in cricket, soccer, boxing, karate, and even MMA (mixed martial arts.) Afghan teams have already scored major wins against cricket powerhouses like India, Scotland and Hong Kong.
It would a waste of unimaginably tragic proportions to give these youth over to yet more war. If this happens, not a single American foreign policy maker will be able to say they did not know exactly how, and why, it came about.
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[Salman Sheikh]

Balban’s theory of Kingship was inspired by political expediency rather than conviction.
Introduction
Balban, commonly known as one of the greatest monarchs of his times, certainly deserves a high place among the long list of the Kings of Delhi Sultanate. He is accredited with having saved the newly formed Muslim empire from certain existential threats, both internal and external. Many of the steps he took to consolidate his rule had their roots in the dangers and needs of the time. As a matter of fact, one needs to keep in mind the circumstances of the age in order to better understand the policies and steps of the ruler. It is only then can we fully appreciate the meaning and purpose of the steps taken.
One of the most important steps which Balban took and which laid the basis of many of his other policies was his theory of kingship. Viewing from standpoint of effects of the prevailing circumstances and expediency, Balban’s theory of kingship appears to be greatly, if not fully, inspired by the circumstances and political problems of the time rather than by any conviction or belief in political ideals of Islam. A brief look at the prevailing circumstances is thus necessary to understand his theory of Kingship.
Prevailing Circumstance:
Apart from court intrigues, internal revolts, external threats, bankruptcy of the treasury, one of the major factors which led Balban to expound his theory of kingship was the fact that people no longer have the fear of the government in their hearts, which was causing many socio-political problems for the Sultans of Delhi. In order to restore the prestige and awe of the ruler, Balban thought of raising the prestige of the ruler far above the common standards so that a gap between the ruler and the ruled is established which would ultimately lead to the stability of the Government. About the prevailing circumstances, Barni writes,
“Fear of the Government power, which is the basis of all good government, and the source of the glory and splendor of the state, had departed from the heart of men and the country had fallen in a wretched condition.”
Thus it was under these circumstances that Balban presented his theory of Kingship as a practical solution to the prevailing problems of the society. We shall now see how this theory could present solutions to practical problems of the day.
Balban’s theory of Kingship and restoration of peace in India:
Balban’s theory of Kingship contributed to restoration of a stable Government in India in the following way:
A) The glory and grander of Kingship inspired awe and dread into the hearts of people which resulted in making people more obedient to the Central Government. Balban believed that if glory and grandeur disappear, people become impious and rebellious. Thus to control people, a strong central King was essential.
B) According to his theory of Kingship, a king should remain fully aware of the conditions of his provinces and the doing of his officers. This assumption led to the establishment of espionage system, which operated directly under the central authority, not answerable to the provincial authority.
C) Since King is the true representative of God on the earth, his power is unlimited. His position should not be challenged by anyone. This belief of Balban led to the destruction of the ‘Forty’. He felt no hesitation in suppressing the power of nobles and chiefs, for their degradation and dishonor strengthened King’s own position and gave a new vigor to his Government.
D) According to his theory, three essential of Kingship are the army, treasury and nobles. The stability and permanence of the government rests upon the establishment of a well-equipped and centrally controlled army. Large proportion of the revenue was thus spent on the maintenance of the army.
E) According to Ishwari Topa, “Strict and vigorous enforcement of law worked like a counterblast to the undermining political forces.”
F) Balban’s theory justified use of force to maintain law and order and uphold the prestige of Islam. He kept the Hindu element under control forcefully so that they dared not rise to challenge his authority.
G) He kept the functionaries of the Government by taking the power of initiative off their hands. Government functionaries were required and supposed to follow the true spirit of the Kingship, as expounded by the King himself, so that masses follow their examples.
H) His exposition of the royal pattern of life, court etiquettes, dignity and prestige of the King, left a deep psychological impact on the mind of the people who used to come from far flung areas to witness the royal processions. They came to believe in efficiency as well as austerity of the government, they feared it and followed it. This was no small an achievement.

Analysis of the practical impact of the theory:
A look at the reforms done and steps taken by Balban during his rule and a study of his theory of Kingship would make it clear that many of his reforms and policies had their roots in his theory of Kingship. That is why it is largely believed that Balban’s theory was based on benign understanding of the practical problems of statecraft prevailing during his time which proved to be beneficial as far as his own rule is concerned. According to Ishwari Topa, “Authority of the state was re-established and reorganized by infusing fresh life into the statecraft.” Balban rightly believed that so long as kingship did not exert itself to infuse awe and dignity into the heart of the people in general, no real justice could be done to the problems of the Government. This is exactly what was missing when Balban came into power but he was able to achieve restoration of a strong central government which was a pre-requisite for the achievement of other objectives related to economic prosperity, consolidation and defense of the empire.
Conclusion
In final analysis, it is evident from our discussion that Balban’s theory of Kingship was inspired more by political realities of his times rather than by any pure conviction or belief in religion or Islam. It is not to suggest that he was not a good Muslim or a religious person. As a matter of fact, nature of his rule and that of Pious Caliphs show a marked difference. On the other hand, we can safely say that Balban’s theory suited the circumstances in which he was placed to rule. Only a strong central government under a strong and firm ruler like Balban could save the infant Muslim dominion in India from disruption and falling apart. According to Ishwari Parasad, “But for Balban’s vigour and energy the Kingdom of Delhi would have hardly survived the shocks of internal revolts and external invasions.”

[Amna]

@ Salman

Mention the source and post in the relevant section.Otherwise you posts 'll be vanished without any notification.

[Salman Sheikh]

@ AMNA.
Source of what ? Article on Afghanistan or of Balban's theory ?