Capital suggestion...Understanding China

[HASEEB ANSARI]

Capital suggestion...Understanding China
By Dr Farrukh Saleem

In order to understand China, the first thing one must understand is that the Communist Party of China (CPC) 'stands above the law'. According to Red Flag magazine – the CPC's bi-weekly – constitutionalism "belongs to capitalism and bourgeois dictatorships not to China's people's democracy" adding that a "constitutional government is not suitable for socialist countries."

The next paradigm one must understand is the CPC's current priorities. In 2011, for the first time ever, the CPC allocated $95 billion for internal security; $4 billion more than what was allocated for the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Message: the CPC's priority is internal security.

For the record, there were "180,000 protests, riots and mass demonstrations in 2010 – an average of 500 every day." In early 2011, as a consequence of an online call, Chinese demonstrators came out in large numbers in Beijing, Shanghai, Changchun, Changsha, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Harbin, Nanjing, Shenyang, Tianjin, Wuhan and Xi'an. The slogan was the same everywhere: 'Accountability and transparency doesn't exist under the current one-party system'.

The next thing one must understand is that the PLA's official motto is to "guarantee the ruling position of the CPC". Officially, the top among PLA's five 'core values' is 'loyalty to the party'. In effect, the PLA's primary responsibility becomes the maintenance of the CPC's absolute monopoly over all forms of political power over every inch of China's 9.7 million square kilometres. In effect, the PLA "is not a national army that belongs to the state but rather an armed wing of the CPC". For the record, almost "all PLA officers are party members".

The next thing one must understand is that the PLA's 2.3 million active-duty personnel are overstretched – way overstretched – because of country-wide internal security duties. As a consequence, the PLA is neither structurally configured nor has the capacity to project Chinese power to foreign lands. In essence, the PLA's "domestic drag inhibits the PLA's ability to concentrate on external missions".

The next thing one must understand is China's economic growth model. To be certain, China's economic growth model has been very successful but the model remains export-driven and export-dependent. The export-driven component of the model has made China's coastal population very prosperous, while others inland – a majority – remain relatively poor (a classic driver of conflict). The export-dependent component of the model has made China highly dependent on commercial sea lanes and thus dependent on the US Navy (as all commercial sea lanes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea are controlled by the Seventh Fleet).

Another thing one must understand is that China imports $175 billion worth of electrical machinery, oil worth $85 billion, scientific instruments worth $50 billion and office machines worth $40 billion. Clearly, Pakistan has almost nothing that China needs. Pakistan's exports are more than 50 percent cotton and cotton-related, seven percent rice, six percent leather and two percent sporting goods.

In effect, the Pak-China trade relationship is a one dimensional affair – China exports $10 billion worth of products every year to us but we have next to nothing that we can export to China. Shockingly, 40 percent of our entire trade deficit is the consequence of our bilateral trade with China.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @saleemfarrukh