Without Yahoo, Microsoft
Online advertisers next week will descend on Seattle seeking signs of how Microsoft Corp. will compete online without buying Yahoo Inc. They will have to wait a bit longer.
For two days starting Tuesday, Microsoft will hold an annual demonstration to online advertisers its tools and strategies for making them money on the Internet. In the past, the message of the event was that Microsoft was on track to be a viable competitor of Google Inc. Microsoft would detail how it planned to get there by investing in its own services for searching the Internet and brokering ads. Advertisers liked the idea of a big alternative to Google that could generate business from their online ads. Anticipation grew.
It has become clear the plan hasn't worked -- which is the main reason Microsoft tried to buy its way into competitiveness by acquiring Yahoo, a deal that died May 3, when Microsoft withdrew its bid for the Internet company. Advertisers, Wall Street and even Microsoft employees want a new direction.
Next week's event won't deliver it. Instead, Microsoft will offer renewed faith in its existing plan: a vision for tying all of its disparate online services and related products into a one-stop-shopping place for advertisers. Microsoft will push the idea that only it can handle it all -- display ads on traditional Web sites, ads on mobile phones, ads in videogames and ads in any number of new areas, such as Surface, a new table computer for public places like casinos and hotels.
Offering support will be a cast of celebrities and celebrity business people, including director James Cameron and former Walt Disney head Michael Eisner. Microsoft will likely deliver some news on its online services, though it is likely to be incremental improvements, and not the real shot in the arm the business needs.
Compounding Microsoft's challenge is an apparently softening online-ad market. In March, researcher eMarketer cut its forecast for 2008 online-ad spending in the U.S. to $25.9 billion from a previous forecast of $27.5 billion. While that's still 23% growth over 2007, PubMatic, an online-ad company that measures ad pricing, found this week that the average price that Web sites garner from ads dropped from March to April, concluding that "the economic slowdown in the U.S. is starting to impact the online advertising industry."
Behind the scenes looms Carl Icahn, the activist investor who this week disclosed that he nominated a slate of new Yahoo board members with the intent of forcing the company into Microsoft's hands. To punctuate his message, he said he has bought 10 million Yahoo shares and options for 49 million more.
Whether Mr. Icahn can entice Microsoft back to the table remains to be seen. For now, Microsoft appears uninterested. Anyone hoping for a new online plan from Microsoft may have to wait until July, when financial analysts descend on Seattle for their annual Microsoft meeting.
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