A riskier world

First the good news: analysts gazing into the crystal ball, in what amounts to an exercise in fortune-telling based on intelligence reports, see a diminished global role in the future for the US. But the bad news is that this world could be a riskier, multi-polar place with nuclear weapons, terrorism and expanding populations all posing their own risks. Worse still, in its assessment entitled 'Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World’, the US National Intelligence Council, an independent government body, has reiterated warnings made in previous reports that by this time, Pakistan may be a failed state and indeed may even have vanished entirely from the map in its present form. It also describes Pakistan today as among the countries in the world most hostile to the US, but reverses predictions it had made in the past of increased US dominance over the world. Instead, new players – including China, Russia, India and Brazil are expected to assume a greater role.

It is easy, indeed tempting, to dismiss such grim assessments as nothing more than conspiracy. In 2005, an NIC warning about a Balkanization of Pakistan and a prediction that it could face a fate similar to that of Yugoslavia, had been scoffed at as a CIA attempt to destabilize the country. This may indeed be true. There have been many examples of such attempts to manipulate events within countries. But given the number of international studies that warn of a perilous future for Pakistan, many of which come in from prestigious bodies such as Foreign Policy magazine, perhaps it is time to sit up and pay attention. After all, it is only the most foolish parents who dismiss consistent report cards in red from schools as evidence of bias by teachers without making efforts to address issues that may be affecting their child’s performance.

Our leaders, and indeed other citizens in powerful places, need to play the part of responsible parents. We must use the bleak assessments coming in to try and ascertain how far they are accurate, so that problems can be addressed. After all, the possibility of a breakup of our country is not one that should be taken sitting down. Yet so far, despite the acute economic crisis we face, despite the breakdown in the rule of law, despite grave socio-economic disharmony triggering a wave of crime, despite growing federal discord and despite other signs that are before us of a state having been unable to manage affairs, there is a curious sense of complacency. At times attitudes in Islamabad seem to mirror those of the deranged Roman emperor Nero, who fiddled around as the city burned. Certainly, there seems to have been an inability or a lack of readiness to accept the conditions we face. Life, made up of joy trips abroad, of lavish parties, occasional meetings and of rhetorical statements, continues as usual. There is pretence of normalcy, a willingness to turn a blind eye to issues. But this dangerous, ostrich-like approach will lead us nowhere. We need to lift our heads out of the sand and look straight on at the problems that glare out at us. Not only the government, but other people – particularly those in a position to shape influence – need to act. This includes the media men and women, the writers, the professionals and all those who possess the vision to gaze into the future. As rational people, we all know this future is not set in stone. The image appearing in crystal balls can be changed through intelligent thought and action. Now is the time for such action, before the bleak forecasts of the NIC turn into reality.

Under attack

Once more, the media seems to be under attack from all kinds of quarters. Most notably the Punjab governor, but also other politicians, have lashed out against it and accused it of inaccuracy and sensationalism. Somewhere, in these charges, there may lie a small grain of truth. The need for greater professionalism and more ethics cannot be denied. This of course holds true for every sphere of work in the country and indeed in most other countries. But there is a broader, bigger and more important truth that cannot and should not be thrust aside. We have, through too many decades of our history, lived in an environment within which harsh restrictions have been placed on the media. Those of us who can recall the years under the late dictators Ayub Khan or Ziaul Haq know how terrible it was to be deprived of information and fed a regular diet of lies. The stifling of free thought and expression has contributed to the difficulties our nation faces and to the frustration we see everywhere. Because many problems that have their roots in the 1980s or before then were kept hidden from public view, they were not addressed – allowing them to grow and fester. As such, the media revolution ushered in after 2000, when private TV channels first appeared, is an immensely important development. The situation we see today is greatly preferable to the dull PTV monopoly of the past. Any effort to highlight political wrongdoings must be appreciated; the anger of politicians over such efforts in fact shows the media is having an impact in the right place. There must be no attempt to stop it from continuing its role which has already done so much to make our society a better, more open place.

Suicide strike

Once more, a suicide bomber has struck. The attack on the mosque in Bajaur Agency, which killed nine, was directed against the leader of the Qaumi Lashkar, which had played a part in destroying militant hide-outs and attempting to flush them out of the area. In recent days, the lashkar, whose numbers are reported to have swollen steadily, had been engaged in several gun-fights with bands of militants. Malik Rehmatullah, who died in the blast, had indeed been receiving threats from militants for some time. It is obvious the extremists see the lashkars formed across tribal areas as a huge threat to them and over the past few weeks have made them their principal target. It seems likely that these tactics will continue.

Given that this is the case, the authorities need to do more to support the brave tribesmen who have opted to take on the militants across tribal areas. Security equipment, including scanners, gates and other devices should be provided to them. Basic training in how to protect premises can also be imparted. This may come in useful before big tribal meetings that have in the past become a place where suicide bombers have struck. It is true that stopping a committed suicide bomber is a task that is exceedingly difficult. But an improvement in security would at least make their task harder. It would also offer to tribal leaders a sense that the authorities are willing to stand by them in their battle against extremists and that they have not been left to carry out this struggle on their own, or become, in the process, fodder for the suicide bombers who seem bent on continuing to inflict death and suffering.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.