Kidnapped!

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Peshawar has become the kidnapping capital of the world. Hardly a day goes by without another high-profile incident being reported. A few days ago, an Iranian diplomat was abducted from the city. In September, the Afghan ambassador-designate vanished and has not yet been located. Most recently, an attempt was made to kidnap two journalists, apparently near the tribal area located just beyond Hayatabad, as they set out to interview a militant leader. The newsmen, one Afghan the other Japanese, were injured but escaped capture.

According to police in Peshawar, who at the end of October carried out a major operation against gangs involved in kidnapping, 78 people, including 26 children, have been kidnapped for ransom from Peshawar during the past 10 months. At least 18 of them are still missing. It is believed the actual number may be higher, given that many families prefer to quietly strike a deal with abductors rather than reporting the crime. There seem to be several strands to the string of kidnappings. In some cases, it seems the motive is simply to collect money handed over as ransom. Disquietingly, political elements are said to be patronizing gangs involved in such abductions. In other cases, militants have carried out kidnappings in the hope that they can use their hostages to press home demands that usually involve the release of arrested persons. The case of the abduction of Pakistan's envoy to Afghanistan early this year fit this category. The decision to release militants in exchange for his freedom may well have encouraged further, 'copy cat' kidnappings.

The fact though is that Peshawar has become a city under siege. Militants and criminals have both been able to take a hold on it. In some cases, the interests of these two groups are in fact inter-linked and tied in together. Kidnapping is also a problem outside the city, in the tribal areas and other parts of NWFP. Indeed, in some of these areas, it was the offer by the Taliban to improve law and order that played a part in their coming to power in the first place. The problem of crime, left unchallenged in these parts for far too long by negligent authorities has gradually crept into Peshawar and indeed taken a firm hold on the city. For many, the once bustling capital has become a 'no go' zone. The murder of a US aid worker will of course aggravate the situation further and lead to more people pulling out. This has already damaged commerce and employment in the city. Each time an organization within it closes its doors, it is Pakistanis – the guards, the drivers, the office staff and the domestic workers – who lose jobs. Somehow, normalcy needs to return. The task of achieving this is not an easy one. It is tied in to the wider battle against the breakdown in the rule of law. But the effort needs to be made given the price that is being paid for the current situation, by the victims, by their families and by all those who now live in a climate of constant fear.

Pious hopes

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Religion – which often separates peoples and nations – has been the catalyst that brought together participants from 80 nations at the UN in the last week; including 14 heads of state. The UN Interfaith Conference grew from an initiative by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia – a country not noted for its tolerance of faiths other than Islam. Our own president made a platitudinous speech to the assembled luminaries and the UN secretary general in his closing remarks had words we need to ponder closely. He said: "King Abdullah's initiative has come at a time when the need for dialogue has never been greater. It has brought together people who might not otherwise have a chance to interact…the challenge now is to go beyond the words we have heard."

A challenge indeed. Religious intolerance is one of the principle underlying causes of conflict world-wide, both within individual nation states and between states themselves. Here in our homeland intolerance is institutionalized in sectarian conflicts within Islam and via discrimination against adherents to faiths other than Islam at every level of society. Indeed it is hard to find instances of active interfaith work or partnerships anywhere in the country, though the NGO sector does have examples that are both model and inspiration. As a nation we are profoundly intolerant of anything that is 'other'. Whatever the secular principles of our Founding Father may have been, they have been swept aside and replaced with a legacy of vitriol; harsh words and calls for the deaths of those who fail to conform. We cannot know just how sincere our president was, either in his attendance or in his speech, at a conference which in truth was little more than diplomatic window-dressing. If we are to be convinced of his sincerity we need to see the preacher practicing the very things he is preaching to us about. It is all very well to read out a speech written by a presidential aide, quite another to put words into practice.

Sharif's stand

Sunday, November 16, 2008

PML-N chief Mian Nawaz Sharif has emphatically stated that as he does not recognize the PCO judges as legitimate, he will not be appearing before the Supreme Court on November 20 in a case that is to decide the matter of his eligibility to contest elections. The failure of the PPP government to do 'the right thing' and restore the pre-November 3 judiciary is thus continuing to have repercussions. Sharif, who met the president of Pakistan only recently, has made it clear he is continuing to press for a full judicial restoration.

The fact also is that the stance taken by Sharif is adding to his popularity. Unusually, the issue of the judges has also captured the popular imagination and does seem to matter to people. In this regard, the claims by the federal law minister that in terms of popular appeal, the issue is insignificant are inaccurate. Reaching beyond the matter of which judges sit on SC benches, the question has become one of political morality and the need to offer a distinct break from the era of former President Musharraf. Against this backdrop, Sharif's stand will add to his appeal, particularly in Punjab. It will also keep alive the judicial issue at a time when the lawyers' movement is being rejuvenated. The refusal to appear before PCO judges will help Sharif clench his place as a political hero in the eyes of the many people who still believe the judges, including deposed justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, must be restored.

Friendly advice

The Friends of Pakistan forum, set up in New York in September, has completed its second meeting focusing on a working plan and the identification of areas in which Pakistan would benefit from assistance. As has been clear now for some weeks, the forum has no plans to extend cash hand-outs to Pakistan. Instead, it hopes to help the country strengthen its own economic foundation by promoting investment within it. Four other areas for assistance – development, security, energy and institution building – were also identified at the meeting, attended by low- to middle-ranking officials from over a dozen countries as well as representatives from the EU and the UN. The discussions held at the forum will be taken forward at a ministerial-level meeting early next year in Islamabad and expert-level consultations.

The unusual new body obviously sees, as its primary role, the need to extend moral support to Pakistan rather than help in concrete terms. This had indeed been made clear to Pakistan early on, as the forum was set up, with the country's president emphasizing he wished to 'learn how to fish' rather than being provided with it. While the world is naturally reluctant to see Pakistan collapse – this would be catastrophic given its central role in the battle to ward of terrorism – there is also an obvious reluctance to dole out more hand-outs to the country. For this reason the Friends have insisted Pakistan submit to an IMF regime, so that a check can be kept on its spending habits. Indeed, the setting up of the Forum in some ways complicated the task of seeking aid. Both Saudi Arabia and China, the two nations on which Islamabad had pinned its highest hopes as the extent of its financial crisis became clear, have been hesitant to dole out money within the setting of a bilateral forum. It has also been said that Islamabad handled the matter clumsily, leaving the Saudis mightily miffed over the fact that they had not been approached first of all when it became clear Pakistan faced collapse.

Given the humiliating situation we face now, Pakistan's priorities must be to put its own house in order, so that it can extract maximum benefit from the attempts that will be made by members of the Friends forum to encourage investment within it. Rather than hoping that the Obama administration will deliver financial assistance, Pakistan's managers must devise strategy to conserve and better manage their own resources. There is as yet little evidence that we are willing to enforce tougher fiscal discipline at home. Our extravagant cabinet, the decisions to take huge contingents on trips overseas and the style in which members of the government conduct themselves suggest that the true gravity of Pakistan's economic situation has yet to hit home. Islamabad must remember, a time may come when there may be no friends at hand to pull it out of the pit into which it has a tendency to stumble.

A monster riposte

Dear oh dear, Salman Taseer, it seems that the media has upset you. The electronic media has become a monster that has us all in its clutches and, horror of horrors, "it does not let any government work smoothly." So there we have it, the truth revealed at last…it is the media that is responsible for the loadshedding, the collapsing law-and-order situation, the balance of payments crisis and who knows what else – the scarcity of pink elephants in upper Sindh, perhaps! And those anchorpersons…terrible people to a man and woman! Were they to behave like this in the spiritual desert that is The West they would have been clapped in irons long ago, their tongues stapled to their toes.

Not everybody sees it thus. The ever-fragrant and immaculately coiffured Ms Sherry Rehman says that the government does not believe in placing sanctions on the media, but that there continued to be those who would silence the Fourth Estate (print or electronic division) – but that she was having none of that nonsense. TV channels had every right to examine the performance of government, indeed even lampoon and satirise it, and that media freedom was one of the central planks of her party, the PPP. All of which we applaud - so who is turning off the private TV channels distributed through the cable networks in Karachi and Lahore?

Could it be that pressure has been brought to bear by a political figure who is suffering a severe bout of acid indigestion? We would hope not, indeed it would be unwise of us to indicate that any such thing might happen in the land of the pure. So we won't do that. We would never suggest that a political figure, feathers ruffled by anchorpersons of godlike mien, would ever stoop so low as to intimidate cable networks into pulling the plug. So there we are. We haven't suggested it. Not a word. Nor would we. Ever. We now return to our normal service of misinforming the public, undermining the moral fibre of the nation and frightening little old ladies.

A solid start

Pakistan's new cricketing set up has got off to a good start, with a convincing 3-0 victory over the West Indies. Sadly, the success, in which Pakistan's batsmen produced some highly entertaining performances, belting the ball across boundaries as it came off the kind of flat pitch our batters revel in, has not drawn the level of excitement that may be expected. The fact that the matches had to be played in distant Abu Dhabi, due to security concerns, meant Pakistan's cricket starved audiences were not present to witness a set of victories that should have built greater enthusiasm than has been the case. This fervour is important both for the sake of people who thrive on the game of cricket and for Pakistan's team, as it seeks to make a new start under a new coach and a new PCB administration. Packed stadiums and chanting fans are what, after all, makes a one-day contest come alive.

But this having been said, the timely triumph augurs well. Even though it comes against the West Indies – a team who have slumped down the cricketing ladder with alarming speed since their heyday in the 1970s and 1980s – the taste of success against a major team should set the tempo for the future. Early next year, in what will amount to a far bigger challenge, Pakistan is due to take on India in a full-fledged Test and one-day series. It is still unclear whether the games will take place at home, or across the border – with the PCB willing to shift the venue if India is reluctant to tour. But wherever the matches are played, India's spirited outfit will present a hurdle that may not be easy to overcome. The victory against the West Indies may help Pakistan build up the spirit necessary to prepare for this and emerge with top honours in a high-pressure battle that will be keenly followed in both countries and may well set the path for the future for a Pakistan team that has in recent months struggled to find its stride.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

A time for shame

The heart-rending images of eight children, abandoned at the Edhi Foundation in Karachi, weeping as they realized their parents had left them at the orphanage for good, has moved many. The children, aged between five and 12 years, the offspring of three sets of parents, were brought in by their mothers who stated that poverty left them unable to care for them. The plan to dump the kids had clearly been thought out in advance by the parents. Two of the families are related; all are based in the same Korangi locality. The hapless women who left their distraught children are reported to have been in tears themselves as they parted with the five girls and three boys.

Perhaps even more than the acts of suicide carried out at a moment of desperate grief and desperation, this coldly calculated act of abandonment by parents who saw no other way out offers an insight into the terrible impact poverty is having on our society. From the account offered by the children, it appears the parents also harboured a hope that handing them over to a charity would enable the children to receive the schooling and care that they themselves could no longer offer. Three of the children had been pulled out of school a short time ago. It is moments such as those witnessed at the Edhi centre that bring the silent suffering of tens of thousands out into the open. In this particular case, Bilquis Edhi found a way out to end the misery of the children by donating a substantial amount of money to their parents and sending the children home. Prior to this, Bilquis Edhi said that she could think of no other precedent in which so many children had been handed over collectively by living parents. At least two other cases of mothers abandoning small children for reasons linked to abject poverty were reported earlier this year. In homes across the country, food price inflation has inflicted immense agony. There are countless mothers who report going to bed hungry so that their husbands and children can eat; many doctors who tell stories of children who fail to thrive primarily due to inadequate food to eat.

All of us know of these realities, even if we try to shut them out of our conscience for most of the time. The question is whether the story of the eight children has moved hearts and souls in Islamabad. Did their tear-streaked faces look out at our ministers and leaders from the newspapers placed on their desks? Did they make any kind of mark within the National Assembly? Were there any twinges of guilt as the luxury hotels, the limousines, the banquets and the other many perks that come with power were contrasted with the plight of the country's most vulnerable citizens? So far, the indifference of our leaders to the situation of people has been striking. Even as times grow harder, as finances dwindle, there has been no evidence of a willingness to adopt austerity in Islamabad. No planning for the future is in sight. Instead pretence of normalcy continues. We must see if this will change as poverty stares out at all of us more directly and small children suffer due to the inability, and unwillingness, of government to heed their desperate cries for help. The Edhis have found a very temporary solution to the saga but something sustainable has to be done quickly for the poor.

Ugly squabble

The running feud between the PML-N government in Punjab and the provincial governor, which has been simmering angrily since Mr Salman Taseer was appointed to his present post in May this year, has now assumed truly ugly proportions. The PML-N law minister has accused Taseer of indulging in 'immoral and un-Islamic' activities of various kinds and has suggested he be punished. He has also said the government does not see him as a part of the PPP setup but as a remnant of the Musharraf era.

By alluding to 'drink and dance parties' at the Governor's House, Law Minister Rana Sanullah has struck, as it were, below the belt. However it must be said that Mr Taseer himself has done little to create harmony in his province. Indeed, he often seems bent on stirring things up. Whether this is part of a broader strategy, as is suspected by many, or because he has at a personal level made no attempt at all to disguise his animosity to the PML-N is not clear. Most recently, it is two rather strongly worded letters sent to the Punjab chief minister, accusing him of failing to protect the sanctity of the courts against protesting lawyers and of not filling cabinet posts, which has irked the government. It can hardly be blamed for being annoyed. The governor is quite openly eager to act beyond the role of a figure-head. Indeed he has taken to commenting on almost every deed of the government, usually critically. The time has come for the centre to step in. The increasingly unpleasant war or words in Punjab is creating a great deal of unpleasantness. It is also marring smooth functioning of the provincial administration. A crisis in Punjab would damage democracy and the standing of the central government. For these reasons the games currently being played must be halted, the governor brought into line and a maximum effort created to re-build cooperation in a province where too much dirty linen has already been hung out in public.

Courage and the CII

As many had feared, the PPP government has demonstrated once more that it lacks a backbone. Instead, it flounders on as a spineless, jelly-fish-like entity, unable to move decisively in any direction or take a stand on key issues. The latest dismal demonstration of this has come in the National Assembly, where legislators demanded the sacking of the chairman of the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) and insisted its recent recommendations on the country's divorce laws were 'un-Islamic'. Outside parliament, orthodox clerics have predictably accused the CII of trying to usher in its own 'Sharia'. The PPP has apparently caved in immediately under this pressure, with two ministers informing the National assembly they had no link with the CII recommendations and would not entertain them. There has not even been an attempt to suggest the rational and well thought-out set of proposals at least be reviewed and discussed before being dismissed in this fashion. While all suggestions should indeed be discussed, there seems to be nothing in the recommendations on divorce to provoke such outrage.

Indeed, the CII needs to be commended for its proposals. They aim to free women of the many perils they currently face due to poorly defined and inadequate laws. Indeed they clarify matters for both parties in a marriage. The chairman of the Council is a well-established scholar in matters of religion, and all rational opinion holds the recommendations in no way deviate from religion. The PPP, led into the post-Zia period by a woman and claiming to stand for liberal values, should be ashamed of itself. As a political party it must find the strength to defend what it believes in and to stand by the CII rather than instantly distancing itself from the body in so cowardly a fashion.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

Bigger battlefield

For the first time, US drones have moved beyond the tribal areas that border Afghanistan and struck inside the Bannu district. Four persons are reported to have been killed as two missiles rained down on a residential compound. Accounts vary as to the identity of the dead. Some reports suggest three foreign nationals, including an Al Qaeda commander, were among the victims. The local MPA has angrily denied this and stated all those who died were innocent local people. Once more, there is rage and anger over the drone strike.

As always, the truth is impossible to uncover. But for Pakistan's government, the indication that the US may be ready to expand its range of operations is ominous. The prime minister and the president have tried repeatedly to parry angry attacks made on them by the opposition for failing to prevent the drone attacks by launching fierce condemnations of the action. These words cannot change the fact that there have been at least 16 drone raids since August this year – far more than the number that took place during seven previous months of the year. The missile attack in a settled area will bring still more pressure on Islamabad to act in defence of its sovereignty.

So far, President Zardari seems to have pinned his hopes on a change in US strategy by the incoming Obama administration. He and other members of the government have stated on several occasions that they are optimistic policy will be reviewed and altered. The question is what, if anything, Pakistan is doing to make this more likely and to bring about a change in the views of president-elect Barack Obama regarding tactics in Pakistan, given that consistently through his electoral campaign he had adopted a hard-line stance. Somehow, Islamabad needs to find a way to persuade Washington that it would more effectively be able to fight terrorism if it was allowed to do so on its own and that such a war would win greater support from people. This would give the effort against terrorism far greater strength. But in order to convince Washington, Islamabad needs to be certain of its own full commitment and conviction. It must explain why the militants that the US has apparently been able to eliminate during some of its strikes had not been pin-pointed and dealt with by Pakistan. If this is due to intelligence failure then loopholes in the system urgently need to be plugged. Only if we can demonstrate a readiness and ability to deal with terrorists on our own, will the US be willing to hear what our leaders have to say. This calls for the drawing up of detailed blueprints and plans. So far, it is quite obvious that even though the stepped-up operation against militants has been appreciated, Washington is not confident that terrorists can be dealt with by Pakistan on its own. It has also failed to see that the controversial drone attacks are adding to the complications involved in dealing with terrorism and thus, in reality, playing into the hands of the dangerous band of militants who seem to have set up base across our northern areas.

In the name of revenge

It appears that General (r) Ameer Faisal Alvi, a former head of the military Special Services Group (SSG), who was shot dead in a daring attack in Islamabad, may have been killed in revenge for his past involvement in operations against militants in the tribal areas. No other motive has been suggested for the assassination, carried out by killers, riding motorbikes and a jeep, who opened fire on the general's car and then fled. The ex-military man had been receiving threats from the Taliban for several months. His murder was obviously planned well in advance. It is thought he was made a target because he commanded the SSG group in a covert operation against militants, 'Operation Mountain Lion' carried out in Waziristan in 206, with US and British involvement. At least 12 militants had been killed by Alvi's unit, others arrested. Among them were a number of foreigners.

The Taliban, it seems, were eager to deliver a clear-cut message. The retired general was seen as a 'soft target'. His death, alongside that of his driver, is a reminder of the extremist hatred for the forces acting against them and of their ruthlessness. The game of revenge is obviously a dangerous one. It is not known if other targets are in sight. The killing could also set a pattern that 'copy cat' assassins emulate, to gun down, in a similar fashion, those involved in actions against militants at various times. The thought is a terrifying one. We already have, in our society, far too many strands of violence. An addition to them is obviously not a development to look forward to. Solutions to the situation are not easy to find. But the government must, with the military and other security outfits, consider a way to make the country a safer place; heads must be put together to find a way. Unless we can achieve this, the walk down the dangerous path that leads only to darkness will not be halted and this cannot augur well for any of us anywhere in the country

Home again, home again

The eight children abandoned at the Edhi Foundation in Karachi have been retrieved by their parents. Promises of financial assistance for the families, who apparently felt compelled to give away their children due to poverty, have been made. The families, whose meagre houses have been thronged by media contingents, say they are sceptical that the money will be delivered, but it seeams likely some at least will trickle through. For a short time, the families will be better off than they were before, until the money runs out – as it inevitably will.

But the question is, what lessons, if any, have we learnt. The chief minister of Sindh and others who have offered support were surely not unaware of the fact that people, such as the families now in the limelight, lived in perpetual crisis. They must also know there are others like them. The fact is that while cash hand-outs to a few families may solve their immediate problems, such relief has no wider benefit. It is simply the most convenient way for the government to demonstrate sympathy to suffering. In the past too, similar 'donations' have been made to the family of a young mother who killed herself and two small children earlier this year in Lahore and indeed to others. What we need is policies that address the key issues of people. While the stories of desperate parents who kill, abandon or try to sell their children draw headlines, the fact is many other tales of misery are not heard. We must look beyond handouts, to strategies that can uplift the huge segment of people who live in poverty or hover just above the poverty line, living in a kind of twilight zone into which a light is shone only occasionally, when incidents such as the dramatic events seen at the Edhi centre take place.


The Predator strike on a Bannu village marks a first: the first missile strike outside FATA (the acronym to describe the seven tribal agencies--now the scene of the mayhem the United States and its blundering ways are visiting upon Pakistan). Predator drones we foolishly supposed would not venture outside the tribal belt. Our American friends have surprised us once again, drawing another circle of riotous laughter around the streaming banner of our constantly-embattled sovereignty.

We will of course protest and say this is unacceptable. The prime minister--poor, helpless, likeable Yousuf Raza Gilani--will go into another paroxysm of high-flying indignation. But nothing will change and our American friends will not be deterred because they know what feigned Pakistani indignation is worth.

The Washington Post was not far wrong. It touched a raw nerve when it suggested that a 'tacit' understanding had been reached between Washington and Islamabad whereby America could launch what missile strikes it wanted in the tribal borderlands while Pakistan was free to rail and beat its chest, which is what Pakistan is doing. Indeed, in defence of American interests we are proving to be amongst the world's most accomplished liars, every day our government issuing denials which no one believes.

Our responses can also be comical. Because from President Asif Zardari to Prime Minister Gilani the pious hope is embraced that these missile strikes, violations of our precious sovereignty, will hopefully cease when Barack Obama enters office. Such investment in unmerited hope can have few parallels.

The Americans can pat themselves on the back for the change they have helped engineer in Pakistan: replacing a yes-man---Pervez Musharraf---who had outlived his utility and had become a liability with a fresh yes-man---President Zardari---who is all too keen to do America's bidding and prove his usefulness to his American benefactors, who helped his rise to power.

Musharraf had no popular backing and his creation, the Q League, was an artificial construct, a king's party shored up by government help and patronage. Zardari heads a popular party and indeed, on present reckoning, the country's biggest party, the PPP. The rank-and-file of the PPP certainly don't want to toe any American line. If they were to be true to their culture they would shout that any friend of America's is a traitor. But the PPP leadership in the person of Mr Zardari is sold on proving its usefulness to America. Which is a strange role for the party of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto: playing Uncle Tom to America's master. But with an NRO-whitewashed leadership what could we have expected?

I am sure Musharraf's biggest regrets are (1) trying to get rid of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and (2) granting a blanket pardon to Zardari. The move against Chaudhry triggered the lawyers' movement which fatally weakened Musharraf. Zardari is wrong to downplay the significance of that movement. Without it Musharraf would have been under little compulsion to reach out to Benazir Bhutto and bring Zardari in from the cold. Without the NRO whitewash--the biggest dry-cleaning operation in Pakistan's history--Zardari would not be where he is today: lord of the presidency and, by virtue of commanding a popular party, more powerful than Musharraf in his tinselly uniform.

But Zardari's gain has been Pakistan's tragedy. Musharraf put the army, which was all that he had at his disposal, at the service of American interests. He did not rule the hearts and minds of anyone save those dejected remnants of the Q League who still pine for his restoration. Zardari has more going for him: a popular party and the stamp of public approval. He is after all an elected president, the army's 'crack' 111 Brigade--that great instrument of constitutional arbitration, its interpretation of the Constitution sounder than the Supreme Court's--having had nothing to do with his elevation. All these gifts Zardari has put at the service of the United States.

Musharraf can cry his heart out. He was never this effective. He was good enough for 2001; without his uniform not good enough for 2008. In any event, he was Bush's boy. Bush has passed from history. The USA of Obama requires a new Uncle Tom, with democratic plating, the role into which President Zardari is growing. As the Iraq war is downgraded and the focus shifts to Afghanistan, as Obama has promised to do, more will be required from Pakistan. Zardari, on prevailing evidence, is not likely to disappoint.

What a host of ironies the February elections threw up. The people of Pakistan, chumps as ever, thought they were knocking at the gates of a new redemption. Little could they have realised that they were merely tinkering with the old and giving it a new facelift. The people of Pakistan haven't been betrayed. That would be to put too apocalyptic a meaning on current events. They have merely been used to lend the semblance of popular backing to an unpopular cause. Pakistan's democracy is now hitched to America's war chariot which is not quite what the people of Pakistan were expecting when they marched to the polling booths on Feb 18.

The army, lest we forget, is a willing accomplice of these developments. It is not averse to the task of performing sentry duty for America and fighting its war. Indeed, under its new command, it has brought to this task a new zest. Musharraf never carried out such sustained operations as in Bajaur. He did not use F-16s in FATA. He carried out American orders but only up to a point. That is why our American friends had begun to nurse grievances against him. That is also why there was no end to the refrain "do more". Now we hear less of this refrain because the army under Gen Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, Allah be praised, is doing more and the Americans don't know how to hide their satisfaction.

Up to a point Musharraf knew how to play the Americans. The new combo we have, Zardari and Kayani, is not playing the Americans. They are playing the Pakistani people by leading a loud chorus about sovereignty when in fact Pakistani sovereignty, or what remains of it, lies fatally compromised because of Pakistan's servitude to American interests. There is no winning this war. The Americans eventually will get out. Invaders throughout history have not stayed in Afghanistan for long. We will be left holding the dishes as we did in 1988 when the Americans lost interest in Afghanistan after the Geneva Accords. Why are we so adamant about not learning from history?

Kayani has rehabilitated the army's image to a certain extent but not to change direction in FATA, only to fight America's war better. Of what use such rehabilitation?

But the sorry thing is that where there should be an anti-war movement there is none. Ordinary Pakistanis feel dismayed but there is no one to give voice to their discontent. Parliament is not the tribune it should be. From the MQM to the ANP to the Q League, every party is marching to the tune being played by the presidency and General Headquarters and composed by the US. The PML-N is betwixt and between, not happy with the way things are turning out but not shedding its reservations and not adopting a clear-cut or loud enough stand.

A counter-voice is thus missing. Those trying to speak out against the threat that this war represents are too small or weak to have an impact. So, this is turning out to be a land of the speechless, a land in pain but because of some conspiracy of the stars or of history (I can think of no other explanation) unable to give voice to its misgivings. The resulting void is being filled by the cult of the suicide bomber. Has Pakistan nothing better to offer?



Email: winlust@yahoo.com

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

A riskier world

First the good news: analysts gazing into the crystal ball, in what amounts to an exercise in fortune-telling based on intelligence reports, see a diminished global role in the future for the US. But the bad news is that this world could be a riskier, multi-polar place with nuclear weapons, terrorism and expanding populations all posing their own risks. Worse still, in its assessment entitled 'Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World’, the US National Intelligence Council, an independent government body, has reiterated warnings made in previous reports that by this time, Pakistan may be a failed state and indeed may even have vanished entirely from the map in its present form. It also describes Pakistan today as among the countries in the world most hostile to the US, but reverses predictions it had made in the past of increased US dominance over the world. Instead, new players – including China, Russia, India and Brazil are expected to assume a greater role.

It is easy, indeed tempting, to dismiss such grim assessments as nothing more than conspiracy. In 2005, an NIC warning about a Balkanization of Pakistan and a prediction that it could face a fate similar to that of Yugoslavia, had been scoffed at as a CIA attempt to destabilize the country. This may indeed be true. There have been many examples of such attempts to manipulate events within countries. But given the number of international studies that warn of a perilous future for Pakistan, many of which come in from prestigious bodies such as Foreign Policy magazine, perhaps it is time to sit up and pay attention. After all, it is only the most foolish parents who dismiss consistent report cards in red from schools as evidence of bias by teachers without making efforts to address issues that may be affecting their child’s performance.

Our leaders, and indeed other citizens in powerful places, need to play the part of responsible parents. We must use the bleak assessments coming in to try and ascertain how far they are accurate, so that problems can be addressed. After all, the possibility of a breakup of our country is not one that should be taken sitting down. Yet so far, despite the acute economic crisis we face, despite the breakdown in the rule of law, despite grave socio-economic disharmony triggering a wave of crime, despite growing federal discord and despite other signs that are before us of a state having been unable to manage affairs, there is a curious sense of complacency. At times attitudes in Islamabad seem to mirror those of the deranged Roman emperor Nero, who fiddled around as the city burned. Certainly, there seems to have been an inability or a lack of readiness to accept the conditions we face. Life, made up of joy trips abroad, of lavish parties, occasional meetings and of rhetorical statements, continues as usual. There is pretence of normalcy, a willingness to turn a blind eye to issues. But this dangerous, ostrich-like approach will lead us nowhere. We need to lift our heads out of the sand and look straight on at the problems that glare out at us. Not only the government, but other people – particularly those in a position to shape influence – need to act. This includes the media men and women, the writers, the professionals and all those who possess the vision to gaze into the future. As rational people, we all know this future is not set in stone. The image appearing in crystal balls can be changed through intelligent thought and action. Now is the time for such action, before the bleak forecasts of the NIC turn into reality.

Under attack

Once more, the media seems to be under attack from all kinds of quarters. Most notably the Punjab governor, but also other politicians, have lashed out against it and accused it of inaccuracy and sensationalism. Somewhere, in these charges, there may lie a small grain of truth. The need for greater professionalism and more ethics cannot be denied. This of course holds true for every sphere of work in the country and indeed in most other countries. But there is a broader, bigger and more important truth that cannot and should not be thrust aside. We have, through too many decades of our history, lived in an environment within which harsh restrictions have been placed on the media. Those of us who can recall the years under the late dictators Ayub Khan or Ziaul Haq know how terrible it was to be deprived of information and fed a regular diet of lies. The stifling of free thought and expression has contributed to the difficulties our nation faces and to the frustration we see everywhere. Because many problems that have their roots in the 1980s or before then were kept hidden from public view, they were not addressed – allowing them to grow and fester. As such, the media revolution ushered in after 2000, when private TV channels first appeared, is an immensely important development. The situation we see today is greatly preferable to the dull PTV monopoly of the past. Any effort to highlight political wrongdoings must be appreciated; the anger of politicians over such efforts in fact shows the media is having an impact in the right place. There must be no attempt to stop it from continuing its role which has already done so much to make our society a better, more open place.

Suicide strike

Once more, a suicide bomber has struck. The attack on the mosque in Bajaur Agency, which killed nine, was directed against the leader of the Qaumi Lashkar, which had played a part in destroying militant hide-outs and attempting to flush them out of the area. In recent days, the lashkar, whose numbers are reported to have swollen steadily, had been engaged in several gun-fights with bands of militants. Malik Rehmatullah, who died in the blast, had indeed been receiving threats from militants for some time. It is obvious the extremists see the lashkars formed across tribal areas as a huge threat to them and over the past few weeks have made them their principal target. It seems likely that these tactics will continue.

Given that this is the case, the authorities need to do more to support the brave tribesmen who have opted to take on the militants across tribal areas. Security equipment, including scanners, gates and other devices should be provided to them. Basic training in how to protect premises can also be imparted. This may come in useful before big tribal meetings that have in the past become a place where suicide bombers have struck. It is true that stopping a committed suicide bomber is a task that is exceedingly difficult. But an improvement in security would at least make their task harder. It would also offer to tribal leaders a sense that the authorities are willing to stand by them in their battle against extremists and that they have not been left to carry out this struggle on their own, or become, in the process, fodder for the suicide bombers who seem bent on continuing to inflict death and suffering.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

Sectarian curse

The bomb that exploded at the funeral of a Shia cleric in Dera Ismail Khan brought to a climax the flurry of sectarian violence seen in the town ahead of the attack. The cleric being buried had been shot a day earlier; hours before his funeral took place the caretaker of a Shia mosque was gunned down outside his home. The bombing at the funeral, in which ten people died and 43 were injured triggered violence by mobs that rampaged through the streets setting vehicles ablaze.

Such scenes of anger are of course familiar to us. We have lived with worsening sectarian hatred over the past two decades or more. Killings and counter-killings organized along the lines of sect have seen areas such as Hangu in the tribal areas literally descend into chaos and a frenzy of killings. Similar violence has been seen in other areas at various points in time. Shias, who make up somewhere between ten and twenty per cent of the population, depending on which set of data you believe, live in a state of fear. Many have chosen to give children names that cannot instantly identify their sect; guards stand outside the homes of many prominent Shias and informal surveys suggest there are more and more people in the country, from amongst the pre-dominantly Sunni majority, now question the right of Shias to call themselves Muslim. Myths are deliberately spread about the school of thought and its practices. The growth of intolerance, which led to anti-Ahmadi laws being ushered in 1974, under which the group was declared 'non-Muslim', continues. Shias fear they could be the next target.

The question is what is being done to check the tide. It seems evident a well-planned strategy is needed to eradicate the menace of hatred that is now a part of lives. As a step towards this, laws that pertain to the spread of sectarian hatred must be enforced. Currently, we have a situation in which certain television show hosts, many newspapers and other publications have been able to add to intolerance in many places. CDs and video cassettes available in the market deliver the same message with still less subtlety. We also need to address the issue within school curriculums and resist the opposition to such changes that comes from orthodox elements each time an attempt is made to bring in change. And as the month of Muharram approaches, adding to the tensions, the government needs to send out a clear signal that sectarianism will not be tolerated. The current practice, of banning the entry of specific persons to various districts, is largely useless given that hatred can be disseminated easily in this day and age through cassettes or even over the Internet.

Changing society is not an easy task. In most cases it takes years, if not decades, to achieve. It also becomes a particularly difficult task when hatred has been woven deep into the fabric of society and is retained there through the teachings imparted at madressahs and indeed in many other places. Prayer leaders at Sunni mosques have been known to make their own vicious attacks on Shias. But despite these challenges, an effort to halt the tide of hatred must be made now – otherwise we will face still greater mayhem and violence in the days ahead.

Security in Karachi

During a visit to the city, President Asif Ali Zardari has called on the provincial administration to ensure an improvement in security in the metropolis. He has quite correctly stated Karachi holds the key to development in the country, and that only a sense of safety in the city can help bring this about.

Whereas the city authorities will need to assess if the president's orders that all people coming into the city and taking up residence there be registered can be, in practical terms, carried out – it is clear there is a need to create a better security environment within it. The spate of kidnappings, robberies and street crime that Karachi has seen in recent times has affected the life of everybody living in it. Tales are told of people being murdered for the sake of a mobile phone, of children being wrested away from mothers. Tall walls and iron gates stand around homes. People are more reluctant than before to venture out and crime is a topic of talk in more and more places. This lack of safety also holds back investment and development. Few would be willing to move into such an environment. Indeed, many have moved away. But as Pakistan's main port, Karachi is central to business. It also serves as the home for the largest number of people in the country. As the president has noted, more pour into it almost every day in search of jobs and a better life. For these reasons there is a need to make it a safer place in which to live in and in which to carry out business activity so vital to the welfare of the nation as a whole.

Rough roads

Transporting the materiel to fight the war on terror in Afghanistan has for many years been a hugely profitable business for the long-distance hauliers of Pakistan. It is Pakistani vehicles, their owners, drivers, loaders and ancillary staff who have all benefited from the US using the Karachi-Khyber Pass route to supply the 67,000 foreign troops – including about 32,000 Americans – currently stationed in Afghanistan. Almost 75 per cent of all NATO and US supplies including petrol, food, military equipment and possibly ammunition are moved overland through Pakistan. It may not be for much longer.

Militants in the tribal areas through which the vehicles pass en-route to Torkham have made a series of effective high-profile raids which forced the government to suspend the operation a week ago – resuming it last Monday after security was belatedly improved. Tens of millions of dollars-worth of supplies have been lost in the last ten months. March saw between 40 and 50 tankers burned out, and in April the Taliban captured a consignment of helicopter parts – which they will have no trouble selling on the international arms black market. The straw that seems to have broken the camels back was the hijacking of 13 trucks recently, containing among other things two Humvee jeeps. The trucks were recovered, the jeeps were not.

A report in the Washington Post says that the leakage along the route through Pakistan has forced the Pentagon to look for alternative routes. These will be more expensive in terms of the fuel needed to traverse them – but safer. They are likely to run through Europe, the Caucasus and some Central Asian states, but not Iran or Uzbekistan. Agreement for transit has already been reached with Georgia and talks are under way for a similar agreement with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

The supply of foreign armies fighting in landlocked Afghanistan has for centuries been the Achilles heel of every nation that has fought a war there. The British in their numerous military adventures used almost exactly the same route as is being used today – but without interdiction by the Taliban. The Mujahideen almost brought the Russians to their knees by cutting their lines of supply. America and its allies are rich and powerful enough to circumvent the problem by simply walking around the Taliban in Pakistan. If they make life too uncomfortable here, Uncle Sam will simply take his business elsewhere, with Pakistan the loser again. It would have made both economic and strategic sense to protect our goods vehicles in their transit of the tribal areas. The distance is not great, there is only one road and it should have been within our capacity to secure it. We didn't -or couldn't - and it will be the Pakistani haulage industry (and the other big loser, the Karachi Port Trust) that will end up paying the price of poor planning and yet another failure of foresight.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

The killing fields

The tragic scenes from the Gaza Strip say a great deal about the kind of world we live in. It is an unjust one, a brutal one, where the mighty can kill and maim at will and the so-called protectors of human rights in Washington sit back and twiddle their thumbs. Is it then any surprise that Muslim radicalism is rising across the Islamic world? Can it indeed be held back when we see images of wounded women and children crying in agony as they lie sprawled in blood-stained mud?

Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip was the most intense military action in the area since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. For many Palestinians it was the worst attack in living memory. Over 275 people are reported killed, nearly 1,000 injured in the aerial strikes on Saturday and Sunday. Tanks were reported to have also been brought into the area. Israel, which began the action as an uneasy truce reached in June 2008 with Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since the militant group swept to a 2006 election victory and defeated rival Fatah in a brief civil war, broke down, claims it was responding to sporadic missile attacks from Gaza. Washington has backed this line, blaming Hamas for violating the ceasefire. Israel’s Defence Minister says specific targets were picked for the attacks. This is obviously ludicrous. The narrow Gaza Strip, one of the territories to which Palestinians have been driven since 1948, when Israel was created and an ethnic cleansing of Arabs initiated, is among the most over crowded territories on Earth. It is impossible to drop bombs on police stations and Hamas buildings without killing innocent people. The Israelis and their allies obviously know this. It seems apparent that the ruthless attack is intended to bolster support for the government in Israel before the country goes to polls in February. There is speculation that Tel Aviv also hoped to take advantage of the friendly Bush administration, in its last days in the White House.

What is awaited now is a response from the world. The UN is said to be discussing a statement drafted by the Russians. Arab and European leaders have slammed the attack. The reaction must however not be confined to rhetoric. The Middle East has been a global flashpoint for over six decades. Through these years, the people of Palestine have suffered repeated massacres and constant oppression. These acts have given birth to angry extremism in a part of the world where Islam took its most liberal, moderate form for centuries. The bravery of young men, women, even children, shouting out their defiance from the beds of overwhelmed hospitals must be lauded. Their courage over the decades has been extraordinary. It must now, in the face of this latest atrocity played out before the world by TV cameras, be rewarded by initiating action against Israel and ending the injustice that has given rise to so many of the intense problems we face today.

Double-speak

There is more than a hint of Orwellian double-speak about the statement of Baitullah Mehsud when he claimed that his forces, which he says number in the thousands, would back the Pakistan army in the event of an attack by India. The head of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan said that hundreds of would-be suicide bombers had been given “suicide jackets and explosive laden vehicles for protection of the border in case of aggression by Indian forces.” One might be forgiven for having a sense of incredulity at Mehsud’s statement, for it comes from a man who heads a group whose avowed intent is the overthrow of the very state he now seeks to ‘back’ in the event of an Indian attack. We should not suppose that we are going to see a mass redeployment of Taliban forces from their strongholds in the west to our eastern borders, which is where an attack by India is most likely to happen. Indeed not, and it is those very same borderlands where they currently operate that are going to be protected by these newly-patriotic Taliban forces - and from where an attack by India is about as likely as Pakistan being invaded by the army of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Mehsud said that he wanted to “assure the nation, the government and army that they should not worry about Pakistan’s western border with Afghanistan” - and thus we should all sleep easily in our beds in the knowledge that a benevolent force of dedicated Taliban watches over a grateful populace.

Whilst Mehsud’s statements are risible they do demonstrate his capacity to dominate the propaganda front, specifically in the way that his statement has blurred public perception of the distinction that exists between the army and the jihadi militia. Moreover, Mehsud is not alone in his patriotic fervour as Maulana Fazlullah has offered his own forces to “help” the Pakistan army in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. Both of these powerful commanders have now created the impression that far from being enemies of the state - which they most certainly are - they are its friends and there to help in time of need and national emergency. Given the gullibility of the majority of the population it is not hard to see that large parts of it may be convinced of the truth of what is being said by the Taliban, and therefore more inclined to offer them their tacit or overt support.

That both commanders speak thusly may also reveal or confirm what many suspect - that there is an unholy alliance between the Taliban forces and the army, all in the name of creating ‘strategic depth’, and bolstering our western flank. The thinking runs that the jihadi groups will provide manpower and support in the event of an Indian attack in the east; and that the mountains of NWFP will serve as a rear fortress that is virtually impenetrable - a fortress manned by the jihadis. The army and the government of course hold up their hands in denial at such a nexus but the Indian threat may serve as a justification for the ‘resolution’ of the ‘misunderstandings’ that are the alleged cause of the fighting in Swat and elsewhere, enabling the army to disengage or downsize its operations against jihadi groups and deploy westwards. We have already seen Talibanisation gather pace in the west of the country and the south of Punjab, and their ability to operate at will suggests that somebody, somewhere, is looking the other way while they do. One thing of which we may be certain - double-speak is here to stay, and the Taliban are its masters.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

Buner bombing

The suicide bombing at a polling station in Buner, adjacent to Swat Valley, is a reminder of how great the militant threat in the area remains. Months after the start of an operation against the Taliban in Swat, the authorities seem to have got no where at all. Local Taliban commanders have stated the suicide bombing, staged by a boy believed to be about 18 who rammed into the station in a car plastered with election posters, was carried out to revenge the killing of six militants in the area a few weeks ago. The blast disrupted a by-poll that had been made necessary by the death of an MNA from the ANP. As per the results so far available, the ANP and the Jamaat-e-Islami locked in a close battle for the seat. Local ANP leaders have suggested the blast may have been intended to scare its voters away. The ANP has remained the target of several major terrorist attacks over the past year, both before and after the February 2008 general election.

What the attack does prove is that even after what the military has described as an ‘all-out’ push, the militants seem able to strike at will. This is hardly reassuring. The latest attack targets democracy as well as what remains of the writ of the state. Perhaps it is time for the federal government to sit down with the military and the ANP government in NWFP to assess the state of this operation. The chief minister of NWFP had recently expressed concern over the failure to make headway against militants and also over the death of innocent people. The heavy bombardment, without any evidence of victory over militants, is obviously leading to severe discontent among the people of Swat who have now suffered month after month of conflict. There have been insinuations that the authorities are unwilling to use full force. Allegations along these lines need to be investigated by a government that has stated it sees militants as its worst enemy.

Recent incidents in Swat have been distressing. The body of a local ‘Pir’, killed in a gun-battle with militants, was strung up in public by the Taliban; schoolboys have been kidnapped and people executed without trial. It seems obvious that civilized behaviour no longer exists in the area. Militants in turn accuse military personnel of atrocities. The well-planned bombing at a polling station is the latest example of the scale of the threat terrorism poses. We must, from somewhere, gather together the will to vanquish it.

Mystery murderers

In brief comments on the case involving the assassination of his wife made on the first anniversary of her death, President Asif Ali Zardari claimed he knew the killers and would reveal their identity at the ‘right time’. This is mystifying. If Mr Zardari is indeed able to answer the question as to who killed Benazir Bhutto, there seems to be no plausible reason why he should keep up the suspense. Almost every citizen wishes to know the answer. Slogans raised at Naudero, where tens of thousands gathered to pay tribute to their leader, indicates there is growing impatience over the failure to bring them to book. At present, with the PPP in control in the centre and with a role in government in three other provinces, it would seem it is well-placed to deal with the killers. The failure to do so, to continue to talk about a UN commission, is baffling. So too is Mr Zardari’s call on friends to help. It is uncertain what they are expected to do in a situation where a PPP government has failed even to set up an inquiry team to investigate a murder that changed the political destiny of a nation and has apparently taken no interest in the ongoing trail of five persons accused in the murder before an ATC Court. It is reported even a case regarding the blasts in Karachi during the welcome rally for Benazir, which was quite obviously a bid to kill her, has not been registered. Surely, the PPP does not truly believe that the notoriously bureaucratic UN, which six years after the event has still to come to any conclusion regarding the murder of Lebanon’s Rafik Hariri, can be trusted to unravel the case as though its possessed a wand.

All kinds of questions have been raised from various quarters as the death anniversary of Benazir was observed. Many doubts, many suspicions remain. These have in fact grown over the last year. Mr Zardari and the PPP leadership must take note of prevailing sentiment. If the president can indeed name the killers, now is the time to do so when the government is in a position to bring them to justice and thus act to avenge a murder that shook nearly everyone in the country regardless of political affiliation.

Foggy days

Just for a change there is something that the government cannot be blamed for – the fog. Nothing can be done to prevent it and it is the cause, every year, of dozens of fatalities and perhaps hundreds of injuries; and the Rawalpindi-Lahore motorway is regularly closed during foggy weather. There are two principal reasons for this. One is that there is no adequate fog-lighting system that would enable traffic to pass easily; and it could be argued that the cost of such a provision which is only going to be used a few days every year outweighs the value of installing it. The second reason for the closure of the motorway is that those who drive on it have not a clue as to how to handle driving in fog and blithely carry on as if the fog was not there. The motorway police wisely prevent the widespread carnage which they know will ensue if the Pakistani motorist is given free reign, and close the motorway. It is one of the few instances of proactive traffic management anywhere in the country and there can be little doubt that it saves lives.

Whilst the fog is a problem, it is the drivers themselves whose carelessness creates the conditions in which accidents are more likely to happen. Driving at speed, using headlights on full-beam rather than dipped, overtaking blind, driving on the wrong side of the road – all are contributors to the inevitable toll that ‘the fog’ takes. Responsible driving has never taken root in our national psyche, and cars are an extension of the domestic space in which the prince of the steering wheel is all powerful, to be obeyed at all costs. Sadly many of these princes will come to a sticky end if they do not obey a few basic rules … Don’t overtake, do drive slowly. Stay in lane, dip lights if driving at night and only drive in fog if your journey is absolutely necessary. Reckless driving endangers others, not only you. Remember that as you pull out to pass a cotton wagon at fifty miles an hour and your lights on full beam. In the fog.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

The Janus Effect

The ancient Romans gave the world much, some good and some bad, and it is one of their innumerable gods who gives us the name of the first month of the year of the Roman calendar - January. Janus was the name of the deity who presided over the first month of the year and was the god with two faces, one looking forward to the future and the other back into the past. Heathen iconography may have no place in the modern world but Janus provides us with a reflective metaphor, a time of looking both forwards and backwards, and for Pakistan looking in either direction today the view is far from pleasant or encouraging.

The year just passed dawned with the country still in shock from the murder of a woman who, had she lived, would have been either its president or its prime minister today. Instead, the president is her widowed husband who daily trades on the legacy of her memory but has yet to make himself even one-tenth of the leader that his dead wife was. The prime minister is a man few outside the political world had ever heard of before the February elections, and who has yet to carve himself an identity befitting of the position he holds. Before either of them arrived where they are today, there was what was arguably the free-est and fairest election since Pakistan gained nationhood. Much to the surprise of most the polls in February passed off relatively peacefully, rigging was evident but did not affect the outcome significantly as it has in the past, and the ordinary man got the government he voted for. The PPP was ascendant, the PML-N a brave-faced second and the PML-Q, that Frankenstein creature that never truly had independent life and thought, a dead duck. Enter a new age of Pakistani politics: - fraternal greetings, gracious deference and a patina of civilization. It lasted about a fortnight.

The short-lived New Age quickly gave way to the customary back-biting, eye-gouging and all-around skullduggery that characterises our political life. Promises were made and as quickly broken – no judges were reinstated nor does it look like they ever will be, for instance – and the fragile alliances formed pre- and post-election quickly fell into disarray and recrimination where they remain today. The writing that had been on the wall for Musharraf ever since he pulled the rug from under the judges who were about to pull the rug from under him; got ever bigger and harder to ignore and he seemed to live in a world increasingly unreal. The inevitable happened on the 18th August and Musharraf stepped down. That both the election and the transition from one president to another were accomplished (relatively) peacefully and constitutionally made a refreshing change, but it was soon to be business as usual in the president's office.

Mr Zardari, perhaps the principal beneficiary of his wife's death, stepped into the presidential shoes thereby accomplishing a trick that makes Lazarus look an amateur by comparison. As he donned the mantle of power and began arranging matters to his satisfaction, a number of delayed-action bombs, the legacy of the previous dispensation, begun to detonate. The economy, which had looked in reasonable shape under the care of that old smoothie Shaukat Aziz was revealed to be all smoke and mirrors. Inflation took off at a gallop, forex reserves started to haemorrhage, the stock-exchange nosedived and then the lights started to go out rather more often than was politically convenient. The common man, author of the success of the PPP government, began to get decidedly disgruntled.

As things began to fall apart on the upper decks, there was trouble in the hold and bilges. The Taliban were about to make a reappearance in a production that was literally to take the nation by storm. By years-end large parts of NWFP (…and whatever happened to 'Pakhtunkhwa' we wonder) were under the control of the boys in black, the army and paramilitary forces were making no headway in Swat or Bajaur or anywhere else for that matter and there is a real possibility that the new year could see an extension of the influence of extremism to the rest of the country. Dozens of bombs killed hundreds of innocent people in Peshawar, Wah Cantt, Lahore and at the Marriott in Islamabad among a host of other locations. Assorted shopping malls went up in smoke or simply collapsed. There was an earthquake in Balochistan that exposed the lack of progress since the 2005 'quake in terms of a national emergency and disaster relief service. Polio got its deadly grip on the land once again. American drones repeatedly violated our airspace and killed many – most of them innocent. The economy continued to degrade under the relentless battering of power-failure. In November the first letters began to appear in the press calling for a return of Musharraf. The presidential smile remained fixed…and looked increasingly like a death-rictus. And then there was Mumbai.

The ever-fragile relationship between Pakistan and India was shivered to its foundations by an attack on hotels, railway stations and a Jewish centre in Mumbai. Allegations were quickly hurled by the Indians that the terrorists were Pakistanis and they may well have been – but the Indians did themselves no favours by failing to come up with the proof and Pakistan anyway went into a state of denial as far as its involvement, or the involvement of its nationals, went.

Now, on the last day of the year we look, like Janus, both backwards and forwards. Within the last month Pakistan has once again been labelled a 'failed state'. It is certainly a state under pressure and there are what may be termed 'pockets of failure' within it – but it is not yet failed. Much of Pakistan despite the predictions of many and the hopes and machinations of some, is still up and running and in business (just). Looking back further than the last year we see that Pakistan has always appeared to be teetering on the brink of catastrophe or collapse – and it never has tipped over into the abyss. Are things so different today that the nation will, finally, make the death-plunge? Almost certainly not. Pakistan will survive the worst efforts of its politicians and extremists. The economy will struggle upwards a few points and the stock-exchange will recover. Mr Zardari will be seen to have been an 'interim' figure and things will carry on much as before, close to the edge but never falling. What will probably see the end of the nation eventually is the toxic crop of babies, desertification, flood, drought and famine. And all are much too far in the future for anybody to worry about today, aren't they?

__________________
Regards,
P.R.

Tension at the top?

Power generation may be beyond our capacity these fogged-in and electricity-free days; but the cultivation of a daily crop of rumours brings a harvest of half-truths, untruths and misspeaks for the various branches of the media to mould into ‘the news’. There are obvious dangers in reporting rumour, not the least of these being that most rumours are without foundation and plain wrong – and no media outlet wants to be seen as having got something-or-other so wrong as to have either made themselves look fools or brought opprobrium to a person or institution entirely undeserving of it. Rumours, therefore, have to be handled with care. One rumour has recently gained sufficient currency and substance, despite official denial, to find itself turned into news – namely that a tension exists between the two men holding the apex jobs, the presidency and the prime ministership.

Tales of ‘differences’ between the two have been circulating for weeks, but have never been of sufficient substance to create the warp-and-weft of hard(ish) news until now. The media began to sense that (to quote the Bard) – ‘all is not well in the state of Denmark’ when there was a curious lapse in protocol at the end of the recent visit of the British prime minister, Gordon Brown. It would have been ‘normal protocol’ for the prime minister of Pakistan to stand beside the prime minster of the United Kingdom when there was the final press conference before the visitor departed. But no, it was the president and not the prime minister who stood beside Gordon Brown; and those well-versed in the arcane art of reading the diplomatic runes nodded silently and made notes. Other stories began to surface, one of them offering a little drama as it told of the prime minister hurling a file – which he had allegedly refused to sign – at the wall. The file concerned the reinstatement of employees of the previous Bhutto government; a matter dear to the presidential heart but apparently less so to the heart of the prime minister, who is perhaps wisely looking to the future and not wanting to find himself hoist with his own petard at a later date. Then there are reports of musical chairs in the upper echelons of the bureaucracy that serves directly under both men, with some chairs yet to be sat on despite the music having stopped.

Taken all together and looked at with a critical eye, this batch of rumours and corridors-of-power bedtime stories begins to look like an all-too-familiar real-time scenario rather than the product of the fevered imagination of journalists. An all-powerful president once again is set against a would-be-if-allowed powerful prime minister who might just be flexing his muscles for a bit of a tussle. The president, as evidenced by a recent poll, is far from being the most popular kid on the block, at least in the superheated world of politics. The prime minister by contrast is seen as a mild-mannered yes-man doing his master’s bidding and taking care not to rock the presidential boat. We wonder which of the two will be sitting in the same seat on this date one year hence.


With India-Pakistan tensions still running high, China has stepped in to try and defuse a crisis that is rocking stability in Asia, and indeed across the world. The Chinese intervention is a reminder of just how acute anxiety is over the ferocious war of words between Islamabad and New Delhi that erupted a month ago, following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. In Islamabad, the Chinese vice foreign minister met virtually every civilian and military leader of any note, including the president, the prime minister and the chief of army staff. They have seemed able to persuade him of the good intentions of Pakistan. The key leaders all stressed their desire for peace while pointing out Pakistan’s right to defend itself. Mr He Yafei has praised Pakistan’s approach and called its attitude ‘constructive’. He will presumably now take this message to New Delhi, where he is to meet Indian leaders. The Chinese dignitary has made it clear that his country is committed to helping both countries avoid conflict and that it wished to urge them to show restraint.

The Chinese diplomacy is welcome. It has seemed clear for some time that there was a need for third-party intervention of one kind or the other. While the war hysteria has mercifully begun to decline, there is a sense that both countries need help in backing away from their entrenched stands. For the moment India continues to demand Pakistan act on evidence made available to it. Pakistan insists it is ready to cooperate in the investigation, but lacks sufficient proof to act against any individual or group. In New Delhi, Mr He Yafei is sure to hear details of the materials India says it has provided to Pakistan and assertions that these be acted on. Indeed, it seems likely the matter would have come up for discussion during the intense talks in Islamabad. Diplomats from the UK and other countries are said also to have discussed the issue with top Pakistani leaders. There is no getting around the fact that it will need to be tackled. Pakistan must accept that terrorist outfits do exist within its frontiers. It must make an effort to break up their networks, but it must do so in a manner that makes it clear it is acting for its own interests, and also those of the world, rather than solely because of New Delhi’s strident demands. China can play a part in assisting it in this.

A compromise between the two positions needs to be reached. India would do well also to pay heed to Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s suggestions regarding the deployment of troops and activation of forward air bases. A palatable solution offered to both countries. But amidst all the diplomatic spiel that is necessary to bring the situation back to normal, it must not be forgotten that terrorists are the real enemy. Both India and Pakistan have a great deal to gain by initiating a joint effort to combat them. The two countries have suffered immensely due to terrorist offensives. The latest peace efforts must then also be directed towards creating a mechanism and a will to take on terrorists together, put the ugly rhetoric of war aside and work towards a South Asia free from militant attacks that have already destroyed so much within the region, and which could, in the future, destroy still more.

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Regards,
P.R.