Global Warming and Massive Challenges for Pakistan

Climate Change
• Global warming
• Increased precipitation and its uneven distribution
• Melting of Glaciers and snow
• Sea level rise
• Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather events
Impacts
• Uncertainty in water availability
• Decrease in Crop Yields
• Newer perspectives for sources of energy
• Loss of Bio Diversity
• Increase Health risks

Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

• Increased variability of Monsoon.
• More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows.
• Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline.
• Increased risks of floods and drought.
• Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions.
• Food insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity.
• Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish.
• Increase in deforestation.
• Loss of biodiversity
• Increased health risks (heat strokes, pneumonia, malaria and other vector-borne diseases).
• Risk to coastal areas.
• Risk to energy supply facilities.

Impact of Global Warming on the Glaciers of Himalaya
• Glacier is one of the key indicators of Climate change.
• The world’s average surface temperature has increased between 0.3 and 0.6 oC over the past hundred years. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, in its third assessment report, revealed that the rate and duration of the warming in the 20th century is larger than at any other time during the last on thousand years.
• The increase in the global mean temperatures by 2100 could amount anything from 1.4 to 5.8 oC, depending on the climate model and greenhouse gases emission scenario. On the Indian Subcontinent average temperatures are predicted to rise between 3.5 and 5.5 oC by 2100.
• A forecast was made that up to a quarter of the global mountain glacier mass could disappear by 2050 and up to half could be lost by 2100.
• These changes in climate will have effects ultimately on life and property of mountain people.
• Siachen and Pindari Glaciers retreating at an average rate of 31.5m and 23.5m per year.
• Rapid accumulation of water in these lakes can lead to sudden breaching o the unstable dams behind which they are formed. The resultant discharges of huge amounts of water and debris known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods-often have catastrophic effects.
• The impact of a GLOF event in downstream is quite extensive in terms of damage to roads, bridges, trekking trials, villages, and agricultural lands as well as the loss of human live and other infrastructure.
• Most of the glacial lakes in the Himalayan region are known to have formed within the last 5 decades.
• At least between 3 to 10 years one GLOF event was recorded in Himalayan region.
• These GLOF events have resulted in loss of many lives, as well as the destruction of houses, bridges, fields, forests and reads.
• GLOFs exacerbate land degradation, increase variations in the hydrological regime, degrade biodiversity and trigger many socioeconomic externalities. Climate change will thus intensity and accelerate these impacts and further burden the human and natural systems over a wide area, far beyond the mountain.

Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan
• Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.
• According to a 1999 report of International Commission for Snow and Ice “Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.
• In 2005, Hewitt reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers.
• These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

Goals and Suggestions

Global Warming is international phenomenon; it should be seen in its international perspective. No one can alienate oneself from the effects Global Warming cause. Global warming has triggered new challenges for humanity. Impairment caused by Global Warming hits indiscriminately. Rapid climate change has resulted incredible increase in numbers of natural disasters around the world. One can’t stop natural disasters to happen but there are many techniques to minimize the overall damage they cause. As a proactive and productive member of Pakistani society and a liable member of National Assembly including Member of Standing Committee on Environment, it is my duty to put my share in international and national efforts to curtail and minimize damage cause by Global warming.

There are many techniques in my opinion to tackle damages of natural disasters caused by Global Warming, such as;
• Government should establish effectual “Early Warming System”, so that the vigilant measures can be taken before natural calamity.
• If the potential GLOF could be known in advance, the GLOF hazard could be reduced by saving life and properties of local communities. Proper monitoring of potential GLOF through early warning system should be implemented to reduce the physical vulnerability in the water sheds of the Himalayan region if possible most appropriate mitigation measures should be taken.
• Government should have aggressive strategy against natural disasters, for this government officials should hold frequent consultation meetings with institutions, agencies and environment experts.
• Government should have latest technologies such as Landsat TM and ETM+, IRS 1C LISS3, CBERS and ASTER to acquire satellite images vulnerable areas.
• Development of training materials for the inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes using Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing.
• Government should provide GIS and RS software and other technical support to related institutions and agencies.
• Government should train professionals and introduce foreign scholarship programs.
• Establishment of analytical protocols and systems to identify ‘hot spot’ and to regularize GLOF hazard studies.
• Analyze and synthesis the database to locate hot spot and potential GLOF circumstances, and dissemination of the results to concerned agencies.
• Crop maturity cycles need to be studied keeping in perspective the impact of CC.
• Yields of major crops need to be understood so that productivity is not minimized due to lack of info on cc.
• Sowing date alterations required with scientists giving information to Ministry of Agriculture who is passing it to farmers.
• Change in irrigation methods is required. Changes in planting techniques is required.
• Use of new crop varieties is required.
• For water conservation storages need to be looked at on urgent basis.