After weeks of waiting we finally have The Speech which may ultimately define the presidency and legacy of Mr Barack Obama. The president made his pitch before an audience of cadets at West Point, America's premier military academy, and it was something less than a vintage performance. He touched a lot of bases in the 4,635 words he spoke including several references to Pakistan – but this was mostly a speech about Afghanistan and how America is going to find an honourable military exit before Mr Obama finds himself up for re-election. Thus we have the outline of an endgame militarily – America is to send an extra 30,000 troops to fight a war that some military analysts see as unwinnable in conventional terms against an enemy that has never suffered a decisive defeat by force of arms. America is set to begin its withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2011 – but there is no date for final disengagement, no commitment in what timeframe the troops will go. All will depend on the ground situation. This by implication means nothing, as a pullout has just been mentioned but is not actually intended. The extra forces that will be deployed are not expected to defeat the Taliban but only try to reverse their momentum and create a space for the Afghan forces to take over. President Karzai has been told to clean up his act (again) and Pakistan has had the stick waved at it (again) by being told that 'safe havens' for terrorists will not be tolerated. The totally unnecessary reference to Pakistani nukes and its control was in bad taste and could have been avoided. It was like rubbing salt on open wounds. This is not how hearts and minds can be won.

Mostly, the speech was about the bricks and mortar of warfare. What was missing was a description of the bricks and mortar that would go into nation-building and here lies the weakness at the heart of the Obama strategy. A sketchy 272 words were devoted to the process of nation-building and reconstruction. It is the failure to give equal weight to the military and civilian vision that has bedevilled the engagement of America and the NATO countries in Afghanistan from the outset. Ousting the Taliban was easy – they took one look at what was coming around the corner and packed up and went home. Soon after this they embarked on a long and successful campaign that now sees them as de-facto rulers of large parts of the country – because there was no strategy to provide a civilian alternative to their rule. There still isn't. It is not the failure to win the war that will ultimately define the outcome of the battle for Afghanistan, it is the failure to fight for, win and hold the peace. Unless and until the same resources and determination are devoted to winning the peace there is no point in trying to win the war. The Taliban will now sit on the sidelines, waiting for the US will and determination to exhaust, because as the Taliban are fond of saying… 'You may have the watches, but we have the time.' It is but certain that Washington and Obama will have to revisit this strategy a few months down the line. And when that happens the costs, both political and financial, may be way higher than Obama's liking.


The ANP has lost another legislator to terrorism. Dr Shamsher Ali, who represented the party from one of the seats it had won from Swat, was killed when a suicide bomber walked unchallenged into his home in Kabal tehsil and detonated himself besides the MPA. Two of his brothers were among the 13 injured. The fact that the bomber was so easily able to enter the house is a reflection of the dangers inherent in relaxing security cover. It appears that with the defeat of the militants in Swat there has been a dropping of some precautions. This is understandable. Living in a state of siege is, after all, not easy. But the latest, tragic incident should act also as a reminder of the need to keep security high. Shamsher Ali becomes the second ANP legislator to fall to militants. A provincial minister died in a bomb blast in Peshawar in February this year. Attempts have been made on at least two other ministers and the party chief at his home in Charsadda.

The ANP has faced a great deal of flak recently. It has been accused of corruption and mismanagement. But we should also keep in mind that its MPAs and activists have, almost alone, spoken out across NWFP against extremism. In parliament its members have stood behind bills seeking rights for women. There have been mutterings, even from within parliament, against them. There is certainly a great deal to criticize the NWFP government for. But it should also be given credit for taking a stand on at least some issues, and for pledging after the latest loss to continue the battle against extremist violence. It is, quite possibly, no coincidence that the assassination of Dr Shamsher Ali took place in the Kabal area. This had long been a stronghold of Fazlullah, the TTP leader in Swat. Now one of the country's most wanted men, he is thought to have fled Swat, possibly for Afghanistan. But there are now new fears that his henchmen may be attempting to continue operations on his behalf. Fazlullah had declared ANP legislators and councillors affiliated with the party to be sworn enemies. In some of his more virulent speeches he had labelled them as enemies of Islam. The possibility of a militant resurgence of any kind still needs to be guarded against in Swat. In this respect General Kayani's assurance on his last visit to Mingora, that there would be no troop pull-out until the final defeat of the militants, is reassuring. But dangers continue to lurk and it is essential that a full plan for the valley be put in place so that militants do not find the niches and crevices they need to regain their hold on society.

__________________
Regards,
P.R.