The president speaks

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

For the first time since the latest demands that he step down began to pour in, in the wake of the NRO fiasco, President Asif Ali Zardari has spoken out. He has, in a gesture obviously intended to demonstrate party unity, chosen the CEC of the PPP as the platform from which to do so, insisting that whatever critics may say the party will not cave in to pressure. Speeches made by key PPP leaders at the meeting in support of the president aim to counter reports of a growing split within the ruling party. The tactics adopted make it obvious that Mr Zardari is in no mood to call it a day. There had been conjecture that faced with the possibility of cases under the NRO being re-opened and growing opposition from those who include allies, he might opt, for the moment at least, to vanish quietly into the sunset – heading for Dubai or London. From there he could wait till a new possibility of leadership arose. The PPP meeting also discussed the NRO and other problems facing the party and agreed that the president should address gatherings over the telephone. This is an acknowledgement of the feeling that the president – as a man who rarely ventures beyond the presidency – has lost touch with the people. Despite this, the PPP appears to believe that dispensing with him is not easy given the lack of alternative leadership.

So what now? The fact is that the anger against the president and his team is not likely to abate. The Washington Post has recently carried an article about the rapid loss of sympathy for a man who, people feel, has offered them nothing. The perception of mass corruption and mismanagement, with many convinced that the president and indeed others in power are raking in billions, adds to the widespread contempt in which the ruling setup is held. When pitted against such public hostility, there must be some question over how long a government can survive. Any democratically elected set of leaders after all needs some goodwill to sustain it. There are also other potential complications. Some legal experts have questioned protection for the president now that the NRO has been scrapped. The Supreme Court may be asked to look into this matter. The twists and turns of the future are still difficult to predict. But it seems unlikely that they will lead towards the stability that Pakistan needs.


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Punjab Bank scam

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The National Accountability Bureau has notched up a major success by arresting the prime accused in the Bank of Punjab case from Malaysia with the support of Interpol. The return of the owners of Haris Steel Mills to the country could bring us nearer to unravelling the various matters that are still unclear in the case. It has been apparent for some time that powerful elements may be engaged in an effort to save themselves, by burying the details of a case involving the grants of loans worth millions. The head of the Bank of Punjab remains on the run and, in interviews from the US, has said that he had been threatened and forced into fleeing. But for all the drama that we see unfolding at the moment, the fact is that there is nothing new or striking about this case. Bankers have in the past doled out loans under political pressure. In return they have been permitted to pocket a share of the money. Such scandals have surfaced in almost every political era. Even as this is written, there is a possibility other loans are being handed over and then written off in much the same way.

The arrest of persons accused of corruption outside the country will send out a message. It may deter others from following down the same road. The efforts of NAB and other authorities in the case – even if they were motivated by political needs rather than a sense of duty – has helped highlight the fact that a flight for a foreign destination does not necessarily spell safety. But there is more that needs to be done. Regulations that govern the grant of loans need to be further tightened to avoid corruption of the kind we see now. It is important that the big players who may be involved in the matter be identified so that a message goes out to politicians for the future and banks are not misused quite so blatantly to make the already-rich even wealthier


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Target error?

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

As Peshawar picks itself up from daily bombing attacks, the toll of civilians rises. Although terrorists have attacked military and intelligence establishments and killed or injured numerous personnel in both, by far the greatest toll in the current wave has been civilian. Where we hear anything coherent from the bombers as to why it is that they are doing what it is that they do, it is invariably along the lines of…'We are fighting America. We want the Americans out of Pakistan.' We would not wish to inflame the bombers into yet further atrocity, against American or other foreign interests, why is it that the terrorists seem intent on harvesting the souls of their fellow Muslims, women and children, schools and mosques?

The answer lies in the dual identity of the war that is being fought – part of the Taliban's war is fought against the Americans but another and perhaps larger part of their war is fought against the state of Pakistan. One of the few identifiable goals that the Pakistani Taliban have is that they are seeking to establish a caliphate similar to that which was established in Afghanistan in the mid-90s. They wish to see their own interpretation of Sharia enforced nationwide and the disestablishment of democratic process. They are, in short, seeking to overthrow the state. One way of overthrowing any state is to destabilize government and reduce the reliance and sense of faith in it that resides in the population. For the moment, the populace appears to be behind the government. If the government can sustain the fight against those who seek to overthrow it on both the domestic and military fronts, then confidence may hold up even in the face of appalling civilian losses. Currently, the Taliban bombing campaign is acting as a negative reinforcer and public opinion is against them. Keeping it that way may just turn the tide in favour of modernity, the rule of law and our fledgling democracy .

The rape register

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Rape is a crime universally condemned, yet it remains a crime where the offences committed far outweigh the number of actual cases that occur -- and by far outweighs the number successfully prosecuted. In Pakistan rape occurs against a cultural background of shame and dishonour, and reporting levels and successful prosecutions are both low and depressingly small. The figures for rape reported in this newspaper covering the 24-month period between 2007-9 are put at 7,546, or an average of 314 per month. This is a figure derived from analysis of reports in newspapers as well as figures provided by law-enforcement agencies. This figure appears to be trending upwards in 2008 across the country.

Shocking as the figures are, they almost certainly represent an under-reporting of incidents where rape has occurred -- but we also have to view the figures through the prism of the difference between 'incidence' and 'incidents'. Pakistan is moving into what is known as a 'climate of disclosure' in relation to the spectrum of sexual offences. This means that more and more offences are being reported, as those against whom the offences are committed are increasingly confident about coming forward to report the crime. As the trend towards disclosure increases, so will the number of reported incidents, which does not mean that the median incidence of rape and other sexual crimes within the population are themselves increasing – just that they are more often reported when they happen. One of the drivers behind the creation of the climate of disclosure is the media, both print and electronic, which is increasingly challenging the cultural taboos against the reporting of sexual offences, and providing a platform for those against whom sexual offences are committed to both present their case and bring pressure on unwilling 'authorities' to prosecute where before they would have sought to sweep the matter under the carpet. Paradoxically, it is good news that we are seeing more reports of rape than was historically the case – we would be even more encouraged to see a parallel rise in the successful prosecution of this most heinous of crimes.


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Cryptograms

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Decoding the various messages that come out of Afghanistan or those that are given to Afghanistan by its well-wishers is an arcane artform. The latest message has been delivered by British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, while speaking at a meeting of the NATO parliamentary assembly in Edinburgh. Miliband is a frequent visitor to the region and presumably has a 'feel' for its complex politics. That said, one wonders who he has in mind when he says that ending the war in Afghanistan is going to need 'senior Taliban figures' sitting in government. Military action, he says, must be accompanied by a 'political surge'. Presumably this does not mean flooding the country with yet more politicians in the hope that by sheer force of numbers they are somehow going to 'make a difference'. He seems to be under the impression that the majority of the Taliban may be persuaded to stop fighting, but how he has determined that they are peace-loving pastoralists at heart who would happily lay down the Kalashnikov and pick up the hoe is not clear.

The 'top Taliban' in Afghanistan are driven and motivated ideologues with years of fighting under their belts. They are unlikely to join any government that does not reflect their vision. Miliband talked of 'reintegration' and of the insurgency starting to 'fray and crumble'. The insurgency shows no sign of fraying or crumbling and although the Taliban are under pressure there is little or no indication that they are about to pack up and go home. In one of his more lucid moments Miliband acknowledged that the task was going to be far from straightforward – but pointed out that enemies of a past era are now in government together and that could happen with today's adversaries. Former Taliban, he said, are now in government and that at least is true – but the government is monstrously corrupt, weak at the centre and barely functional outside greater Kabul. How long it will last is anybody's guess. He probably had little choice but to say what he did, yet viewed from our end of the telescope his statement appears to bear little resemblance to what we understand ground realities to be. He concluded by delivering his own version of the 'Pakistan must do more' mantra by calling for more support for Pakistan to 'squeeze the life' out of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Messages are tailored to audiences and Miliband's audience in Edinburgh got what it wanted to hear. Decoding it for local consumption suggests a reality-disconnect that bodes ill for all of us.


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IDPs and winter

Thursday, November 19, 2009

As winter sets in over Waziristan, the over 300,000 people reported by the UN to have fled the area have now begun to move beyond the neighbouring districts of Dera Ismail Khan and Tank, where they have so far been based. With little prospect of being able to return to abandoned homes till after the snows melt away, IDPs are headed to larger cities in search of work to sustain them over this period. Some say they are also fearful of clashes breaking out in D I Khan, where persons from rival tribes have all sought shelter. It is also clear that the IDPs from South Waziristan have not received the level of help offered to those from Swat. Requests from international humanitarian agencies to be permitted to work with the IDPs have been turned down by authorities on the grounds of security.

These concerns are valid, but as a consequence men, women and children who have played no part in militancy suffer. Even the International Committee of the Red Cross, known internationally as a body that is neutral, has been prevented from visiting the conflict zone or even areas where IDPs are based. With the advent of winter certain to impose a prolonged period of displacement, it is vital that the situation be reviewed. Ensuring that the people of Waziristan receive adequate support goes beyond immediate humanitarian needs of the old, the sick, the very young or the vulnerable. Wining the trust of these people is of utmost importance and this could prove a vital factor in the future to ensure that victory in Waziristan over the militants is sustained and indeed built upon to guarantee the future of the territory.

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Rotten to the core

Friday, November 20, 2009

As if the news that we had dropped a further five places down the Transparency International corruption scale were not enough, there comes the (not unexpected) revelation of the writing off of billions of rupees as a consequence of the promulgation of the NRO. A report in this newspaper suggests that the figure could be as much as Rs1,000 billion, a number so incomprehensibly large that it beggars the imagination. The National Reconciliation Ordinance effectively cancelled the powers of the National Accountability Bureau (itself flawed and of doubtful provenance but something is better than nothing) and opened the gate for hundreds – perhaps several thousands – engaged in graft and corruption to walk away from their crimes. Those who did the walking were not the poor or needy; they were the rich and powerful, the movers and shakers at the top end of our society. In many cases there is powerful evidence of wrongdoing, much of it by politicians and the workers of political parties across the entire spectrum of our political entities and institutions. Whatever evidence there was has disappeared and will never be presented. A stratum of criminality at the heart of politics and governance once again escapes the rule of law.

The determination to resist any form of accountability is embedded at every level of governance and has become a defining national characteristic. Small wonder that the world sees us as something of a basket case, seemingly teetering on failed-statehood and forever in denial of our many flaws. They have only to read through the back issues of our newspapers for the last twenty years or so (which is as far back as archives go online) to see the rot at the core of the state, the venality that elsewhere would have brought down individuals if not entire governments. Unless and until there is a change in the culture of corruption we seem doomed to wallow very publicly in our own filth – and there is neither sign of nor incentive for change. Our rulers invest heavily in the status quo and perhaps have little real interest in educating or empowering the majority, because by doing so they may be in a position to challenge that artificial equilibrium. The iniquitous NRO was, according to some legal eagles, itself unconstitutional and discriminatory, a law applicable only to a tiny section of the population and not a law for all men and women everywhere. How many schools could have been built for Rs1,000 billion? Hospitals? Roads? Rural water supply systems? Vocational training centres? Until a majority decides to stand up and say ‘Enough’, NRO beneficiaries are going to be laughing as they dance towards their banks.


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Ticket to ride

Friday, November 20, 2009

The traffic wardens of Lahore have apparently decided to extend their remit to the fining of those unlucky road users who fail to respond appropriately to their politely worded request for a lift. It seems that the wardens do not have their own transport and that they often travel on public buses and vans, either granting themselves an exemption from paying the fare or being given a free ride in the hope of the friendly and terribly polite traffic warden turning a blind eye the next time the bus/van runs a red light. They also have taken to hitching a lift with motorcyclists travelling solo – which in all likelihood will give rise to a rash of dummy passengers on the backs of motorbikes in an effort to discourage traffic wardens from requesting – very politely – a lift. There are reports that not only is the obliging citizen required to carry the traffic warden who is a model of mannerly conduct, but even more helpfully to take the wardens who have chest-fulls of merit-badges awarded for civility to wherever it is that they want to go!

Levity aside there is a serious issue regarding security. There have been anecdotal reports in recent weeks of suicide bombers hijacking cars and then using them to deliver themselves to their targets. The bombers are reported to be wearing police uniforms and pretend to be seeking a lift. Many motorists give lifts to police who stand at the roadside as a matter of courtesy – but the terrorist is infinitely adaptable and it is no longer safe to assume that the person wearing the uniform is doing so legitimately. It is no great stretch of imagination to have a terrorist wear the uniform of a traffic warden. Whilst we might sympathise with the plight of the traffic wardens without their own transport; it does not give them licence to extort money via a fine for those who fail to accede to their requests for a lift. For the ordinary road user they have a right to determine who travels in their vehicle and its destination – and they have the right of refusal without penalty because they might find themselves the unwitting carrier of a cargo of death and destruction.


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Tying the knot

Friday, November 20, 2009

Marriage is big business. Across the country hundreds of ‘lawns’ and ‘marriage halls’ have sprung up over the last decade as brides, grooms and their respective families seek ever more lavish celebration of their nuptials. They are often built with scant attention to where those visiting and celebrating might park their cars or the noise that they generate into the wee hours and the effect it might have on those intent on a good night’s sleep. Given our national propensity for never being on time for anything if we can possibly help it, weddings have got later and later and halls and lawns are booking festivities at midnight and beyond.

Now the provincial government has stepped in to complicate things. To the considerable irritation of those in the marriage business, the Punjab Assembly has passed a resolution under which marriage ceremonies will not be allowed after 10 pm. Sindh is a bit more relaxed and allows ceremonies to take place up until midnight, and the hall and lawn owners say that Punjab should follow suit. The decision affects a range of peripheral businesses – decorators and caterers and the like – and is going to impact on about 400 marriage halls and lawns. The chances of it being effectively implemented or complied with by the wedding industry are roughly at par with a politician making and keeping a promise. With the wedding season now upon us this is perhaps not the best time to place limitations around a national obsession and we can but hope that the Punjab Assembly members have an outbreak of common sense. We still won’t get our sleep or find places to park our own vehicles, but the brides and grooms will be happy – which, when all is said and done, is what really matters.

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Intolerance

Monday, November 23, 2009

Intolerance in our society is something we have all become familiar with over the past few decades. The lack of respect for difference began early in our history with the trend pushed forward by laws that put in place institutionalized discrimination against non-Muslims. From time to time stories appear in the press reminding us how bad things are. Among the most recent such accounts was that of a teacher at a school on the outskirts of Islamabad who berated a pupil for being a Christian, insisting that only Muslims should live in Pakistan. Murders by mobs of persons accused of blasphemy is another example of growing intolerance and its consequences. But there is evidence that the trend is on the rise in many places around the world. In Spain, a female lawyer of Moroccan descent was ordered by a judge to either remove the veil covering her face or leave the court. Headscarves are banned in France and Turkey. In the UK there has been discussion on veiling by professionals working in various sectors. Muslims in North America and Europe have reported increased discrimination since 9/11.

The world would benefit from greater tolerance. In Pakistan, the views of scholars at Egypt’s al-Azhar University need to be widely heard. But tolerance is something that needs to be worked on at a universal level. Merely pointing fingers towards the Muslim world serves no useful purpose. Discrimination and violence towards Muslims in the west in turn breed extremism in Islamic countries. More and more groups made up of young Muslims advocating violence in Britain is no accident. It is in part a response to pressures from the society they live in. The problem is one that needs to be solved by people everywhere working together, so that the world we live in can be safer for all its inhabitants.


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List of ignominy

Monday, November 23, 2009

The list of some 8,000 NRO beneficiaries with the president at the top produces no major surprises. Even the average tea-boy knew this to be the case well before the announcement by the law ministry. Apart from politicians and envoys, the list names hundreds of bureaucrats and government officials. At least five sitting ministers figure on the list of ignominy. What is still more shameful is that we are informed it is unlikely that any of those currently in office will resign. Corruption is not unique to us, but the aplomb with which public figures in our country meet charges of wrongdoing sets us apart. They refuse to step down even when faced with the most compelling evidence of misdemeanour. The revelation of wilful default by the prime minister’s wife, who apparently paid back just Rs45.5 million against Rs570 million bank liabilities, would leave many leaders red-faced. Ours are obviously made of sterner stuff. However, we can expect some fallout. Pressures on the president will increase. Some legal experts have already been questioning whether he can continue to enjoy presidential immunity. But morality has little part to play in the decisions of those ruling us. Perhaps the law will, in time, take its course and public opinion matter.

While Pakistan ranks among the world’s most corrupt countries due to the deeds of its rulers, most of its citizens work tirelessly in an often futile effort to make ends meet. People everywhere are filled with disgust at the theft of state resources by those entrusted with them. This sentiment will inevitably have some impact on the government, stripping away the support it still retains. Sadly, the faith in democracy fades too as a result of the revelations we see before us. But there are other lessons too. Much of the focus has been on political corruption. The NRO list shows the most severe problem living on within the bureaucracy which, ironically, has been quick to point fingers at politicians. From the evidence we see it seems the focus is on lining personal accounts and guaranteeing cushy retirements. The rot within ministries too kills any chance of people being given good governance. Perhaps the NRO list can serve as some kind of reminder of the urgent need to save a nation that is - like a piece of decaying wood - being eaten away from the inside.

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Where is Osama?

Monday, November 23, 2009

President Asif Ali Zardari has in a meeting with the director of the CIA
strenuously denied that Al Qaeda leaders are in Pakistan. He was reacting to US newspaper reports which, for some time now, have maintained that key persons wanted by Washington are based in the country. The latest of these reports identifies Karachi as the location of the camera-shy Taliban leader Mullah Omar, who not so very long ago reigned over Afghanistan, where his Taliban had unleashed a rule by fear. On her recent visit to the country, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton too said that she believed key Al Qaeda figures could be hiding out in Pakistan. The question of the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and other key lieutenants of the man who has done so much to change the face of the world and inflict a series of ugly scars on it has of course haunted the world since the events of 9/11. There has been consistent conjecture that he was based along the Pak-Afghan border. There is of course absolutely no way of verifying this. It is indeed far from certain if Bin Laden today is indeed even alive. Al Qaeda has changed in nature from a single structure to a far more hazy entity which has almost no tangible form. It exists as much in minds as in reality.

But this does not alter the fact that locating key leaders could still be significant. It is true Mullah Omar today, a man on the run, may not wield much power, in actual terms. But his arrest and that of others who are still seen as the heads of the world’s most feared terrorist organization could still be symbolically crucial acting to demoralize militants everywhere. It is also a fact that Pakistani denials have little credibility. The people the world seeks cannot simply have vanished into thin air. They must be based in one place or the other. Logically speaking, for a number of reasons, Pakistan remains the most likely location. It would make good sense for our leaders to accept that the possibility of this does exist rather than to issue blanket denials that no one believes. If the president is indeed sure Al Qaeda leaders are not in the country he must tell the world where they then are.

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On the run

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

As militants from South Waziristan remain on the run, the military is now reported to be moving in after them into the Kurram Agency and more parts of Bajaur. There has also been movement by troops in the Bara tehsil of the Khyber Agency, which lies adjacent to Peshawar, after militants blew up a girls' school. Meanwhile the COAS, on his latest visit to Mingora, has stressed that troops will not pull out of the area until the security situation is back to normal. It appears that as a result of the Pakistan army's more determined initiative the ring around the militants is closing. Soon, we hope, they will have fewer and fewer places to run to, although cooperation with Kabul is also required to impede flight across the border.

The 'stop and start' aspect of military operations we have seen in the past has been missing this time round. For this we must all say a quick prayer of gratitude. It seems that the military has finally realized that there is no option but to go after the militants with all the resolve and force that can be mustered up. It has persisted in this tactic despite the inevitable loss of many soldiers. The hope that we could see an end to the bombings and other acts of terrorism that have in recent days devastated Peshawar rises with every news item about military action and the expansion of the ongoing operation. But amidst optimism, we should also remember that the time will come when we will also need to hunt down militants further afield. Much has been written about bases in southern Punjab. We hear too of leaders who may be based in Quetta, or Karachi or elsewhere. Once the fighting finally ends in the tribal areas, there will be an urgent need for the government, the civil administration and the military to sit down together and plan how best to go after them, so that the full dividends of defeating militancy can come our way.


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Ordinances and parliament

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

As we approach the November 28 deadline set by the Supreme Court, after which 37 ordinances promulgated by former president Pervez Musharraf may lapse, the federal law minister has said some of them will be re-promulgated. This comes from a government that has spoken on more than one occasion about the supremacy of parliament. The SC had sought parliamentary sanction for the ordinances that representatives believed should be made into law, rather than further use of presidential ordinances. At least 31 of the 37 ordinances had been placed before the National Assembly. None was approved – or rejected. Most failed to move beyond the committee stage. Parliament, an institution on which large sums of public money are spent annually, needs to be effective. If it is not, questions will inevitably arise as to why it exists in the first place. Our representatives have a special duty to strengthen democracy by demonstrating that they are capable of performing their function with responsibility and interest.

The government has set aside some controversial measures of the Musharraf era, including ordinances limiting media freedoms. But there are others that need to be retained, such as those that set up the Earthquake Relief and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), the NADRA ordinance and that putting in place the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP). Despite alleged irregularities, ERRA remains involved with various projects in the quake-hit areas. The projects need to be completed without disruption. The same holds true for NADRA. The suspicions that powerful cartels are lobbying for the demise of the CCP so that they can push up prices without hindrance makes it all the more imperative that the government act in the interests of ordinary people by protecting this body. Other ordinances and their impact require discussion and debate. It is unfortunate that this has not happened. The failure to generate such debate in the National Assembly and bring a vote on these issues only adds to the perceptions of the government's ineffectiveness and inability to keep the wheels of state running smoothly along.

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Listen India!

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is currently about to experience American hospitality of the type associated with a full-blown state visit. Wearily true to form he is using the occasion to deliver unhelpful and negative statements about Pakistan that drip oil on the fires that burn between us. 'We are not fully committed to Afghanistan' and 'Pakistan has nothing to fear from India'. With the greatest of brotherly respect Mr Singh, we have a considerable amount to fear from India. You are the bear growling at our backdoor, the fox that eyes our chickens and the Very Big Brother with a military stick that we know we would have difficulty countering were push to come to shove. You have regional superpower aspirations that we cannot match and the ear of the only other established superpower that cultivates you for its own interests. But wait… do you not also have the same problems of poverty as we do? The same threats to natural resources posed by global warming? No shortage of armed uprisings within your own borders? Are there not religious and sectarian atrocities reported on a daily basis and is there not an outbreak of witch-killing in your rural hinterlands that sees widowed women regularly hacked to death?

You are no less flawed than we are and yet it is we who are always seemingly 'not doing enough' and we who are the exporters of terrorism. Are you innocent, India? Free of stain and guilt? Have you never sent agents across our borders, sought to foment discontent and division where you saw opportunity or profit? Have you never done that to us, India? Have you not moved in on Afghanistan yourself as a significant donor, created diplomatic missions and sought to influence the Afghan government? And do we really use terror as an instrument of state policy – or is it that in geopolitical terms it is currently flavour-of-the-month to present Pakistan as a bubbling pot of wickedness? We have our faults and we are often poor at acknowledging them, but we are not the only baddies in this game, India. Yes, we would prefer peace if only because wars are expensive and often fail to solve problems. But peace is ill-served by a ritualised thrashing of a favourite scapegoat. So if it's peace you seek, Manmohan Singh, find a different way of saying so. Believe us – we'll listen if you do.

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Shameful

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

It is as if we are seeing an action replay of events from the Musharraf era and it is the ugliest and most unfortunate of the events that are being repeated – under an elected government which had sworn it would respect media freedoms. Just as happened before, a foreign government has been pressurized into banning the broadcast of a popular talk show from its soil. Its host, Dr Shahid Masood, has told viewers of Geo News that he is now broadcasting the programme, without studio support, from a secret location. He has spoken too of threats made by PPP members, warning him that he would be dealt with in no uncertain terms if he returned to Pakistan. It is shameful that so blatant an attempt should be made to clamp down on the basic right to free expression. This is all the more so given the condemnation that had come from the PPP when the 2007 media crackdown under Musharraf took channels off the air. The fact that one of the same channels and one of the same hosts have been targeted suggests that they are indeed doing their job – by talking about and exposing the doings of whatever government is in power, without bias and without discrimination.

This after all is the primary duty of the media and what millions of viewers expect from it. The president and his henchmen must also realize this action will serve no purpose at all. Not so very long ago a man named Musharraf learnt this to his cost. The vibrant news media of Pakistan has acquired a life and strength that enables it to fight back against such illegal censorship. To do so it can draw too on the support and goodwill of people. It has done so in the past, it will do so again. It is the government which, as a result, will suffer and stand still further discredited. The days of monopoly by a single state-controlled channel have gone forever. The president clearly has difficulties accepting this. Perhaps like others who have things to hide he cannot bear to hear things that may not, for him, be particularly pleasant. This lack of tolerance has been seen before in our history. We now encounter it again in its worst form.


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The fallout

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The political stability that Pakistan so badly needs still seems elusive. The latest dose of instability has had an impact on the Karachi Stock Exchange and on other facets of life, with nobody quite knowing what lies ahead. The future of some ministers is at stake, though the information minister has said they will not be displaced. A cabinet reshuffle has been delayed. There is conjecture that the NRO cases may yet have an impact on the top beneficiary of the controversial law – a certain Mr Asif Ali Zardari. Certainly, many are uncomfortable with the idea of having as head of state a man who faces so many charges of corruption. It is sad that he, and indeed others on the list, have – with the exception of an adviser to the Punjab CM – not done the honourable thing. By stepping down they would have played a part in reviving some faith in government and in Pakistan as an entity. This is badly needed for reasons that go well beyond the limited arena of politics.

Our economy has plenty of potential. Lately, even as bombs rip apart our cities, it has shown some resilience and an ability to fight back against adversity. Pakistan's ratings by global agencies have held stable. But this does not mean that a system that can inspire greater confidence would not bring many rewards. It is not just terrorism that scares away foreign investment. The perceptions of rampant corruption do so just as much. From around the world there are business groups who, when faced with a choice, have opted to put money in nations that they feel are run by more committed leaders who seem likely to remain in office. The talk of ministers seeking bribes, 'commissions' and favours for every small matters placed before them – even for signing bits of paper – reassures no one. At the same time the constant feeling that we walk on a wobbly air-bed, that change may lie just weeks, or months, away, does nothing to build peace of mind. Yet a lasting sense of calm is something Pakistan needs more than anything else, for it to find a firm economic footing, to stop the new brain drain we are seeing and to build confidence in people. The NRO fiasco has further detracted from this and that will do no good at all.


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The stark reality

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The British Council's "Next Generation Report on Pakistan" provides perhaps the clearest picture of how our younger generation thinks and feels about their homeland. Its measured tones and careful analysis make uncomfortable reading despite both positive and negative paths being detailed. The sampling of the surveys that underpin the report is broad and its conclusions derived from data which is comprehensive. The report identifies something called the 'demographic dividend' which is a period where there is a favourable ratio of potentially productive young people, to old. The window of opportunity to exploit this began in 1990 and we have done nothing to take advantage of it since; and the window will close in 2045 (by when society will be aging rapidly) giving us thirty-five years to turn the tide. Alongside the possible opportunity there is demographic disaster which will only be averted by aggressive and sustained action by successive governments. The research indicates that one-third of the growth experienced by East Asian economies in their boom years can be traced to this demographic structure; and if we are able to harness it effectively we could see economic growth increase by as much as one-fifth by 2030.

Our young generation is politically disillusioned. They are very loyal and strongly nationalistic but only 10 per cent have any faith in the key institutions of state – national and local governance, the police and the courts. In terms of identity 75 per cent see themselves as Muslims first and secondly as Pakistanis with just 14 per cent seeing themselves primarily as a citizen of Pakistan. Democracy gets short shrift with 33 per cent seeing it as the right system for us and another 33 per cent preferring some form of Sharia. A majority are critical of the way Pakistan has been manipulated by the international community for most of its life. Despite attempts at optimism, there is little cheer in the report, especially when it is laid alongside the failure of virtually every government we have had to address the issues it identifies and which have been there from the beginning. We cannot throw up our hands and claim ignorance because this particular elephant in the living room has been standing there for over sixty years. Either we invest in our young generation now or we wither and fail in thirty-five years time — our choice is that stark.

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Violent trends

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The UN Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women has been marked in Pakistan as in other countries. Candles have been lit, slogans raised, rallies held. But despite this, the issue of violence directed against women remains a rather insidious one. Even though there have been findings by international bodies that suggest up to 80 per cent of women in Pakistan suffer violence in some form, the matter is consistently trivialized. There are those who argue that matters in the home should not figure in the public sphere. There are those who lament the rising rate of divorce and fail to acknowledge the number of women locked in dangerous situations due to the taboos and legal constraints that hold them back, preventing them from escape.

We continue to encounter the most heinous possible forms of violence against women. These include acid attacks and burnings. Women, on a daily basis, are raped, molested or harassed. Many who work describe this as the most severe problem they face. Unless women have greater economic freedom and, with this, more say over their destiny, the problem will continue. It is also unfortunate that laws tabled in parliament which could have offered women some protection have floundered along the way. Beefed-up laws on domestic abuse and harassment in the workplace have yet to make it to the statute books. It is believed conservative male legislators have played a part in holding them back. This is unacceptable. The government must do more and we need more awareness about the many immoralities inherent in the widespread abuse women face, so that women – and men – everywhere can join the struggle for true emancipation.


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Goodwill for Balochistan

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The criticism of the Balochistan package which has come in soon after it was tabled at a special joint sitting of parliament was inevitable. It was always unlikely that angry nationalist groups would be appeased by any suggestions from the centre or that some other parties would not question the merits of the proposals. As with any such measure, there is of course always room for improvement. But the package announced for Balochistan must be welcomed as an important demonstration of goodwill towards a province that has suffered decades of neglect. Measures such as wider dialogue with 'estranged' elements in the province, a halt to military activities including the building of new cantonments, freeing detained activists, probes into political murders and more control by Balochistan over its resources should go a long way reversing the policies that have proved destructive.

The army action carried out against nationalist elements in Dera Bugti and Kohlu caused immense harm and contributed to the resentment that today simmers on. Undoing the damage is not going to be easy. The federal government deserves applause for recognizing that Balochistan's problems need to be addressed. Indeed this should have happened sooner – but as the saying goes, late is better than never. But the announcement of the package is the start of a process and not its end. The credibility of the federal government is low, particularly in Balochistan where pledges made in the past have repeatedly been broken. The real challenge for the government is to demonstrate a commitment to implementing the provisions of the package and to restore faith as to its good intent. The package needs to be followed up with gestures that signal this, such as a general amnesty for political prisoners. Proposals that this be done have come in. More will undoubtedly follow during the parliamentary debate that is to commence in a few days time. There is also a need to open up a wide dialogue with all elements in the province, including the nationalists. The gaps that exist need to be narrowed down. Without this there can be little hope of progress. The package must be used to build a future for Balochistan and grant it a rightful place within the federation.


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Pragmatic solutions

Thursday, November 26, 2009

We have in the recent past questioned who among the Afghan Taliban may be talked to in search of a solution to the apparently endless war, and moreover questioned the motives of many of those who might engage in dialogue. Lo and behold, reports have now surfaced that the US, Britain, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all engaged in a series of contacts – not yet negotiations – with the Afghan Taliban. The war with the Taliban in Afghanistan was never going to be won in purely military terms and was eventually going to have to be a meeting of minds. Perhaps that point has now been reached with a realization by the Obama administration that they are losing the domestic political argument that justifies the war and the loss of American lives and treasure. The UK is also paying a heavy price as are other NATO partners. The price we pay here is spattered across our streets and bazaars everyday as the bombers go about their business. Our own military is fighting the good fight, and winning as much as they can, but they also understand that there has to be a time for talking as well. And if there is talking behind the scenes about the Afghan conundrum then it follows that there will be talking behind the scenes here, because the linkage between the Afghan conflict and our own fight is self-evident.

It would seem from the scanty information available to us that what is happening is 'talks about talks'; the preparatory phase which is the precursor to direct engagement. We should not expect a quick resolution nor expect to move to a position that has a 'roadmap' attached in the short term. Key players are now engaged, and we are seeing a re-emergence of Mullah Omar as he has nominated his shadow foreign minister, Agha Muhtisam, to conduct contacts. It is likely that the brokerage is being conducted by the Saudis, the UK and the Americans working through Afghan proxies in these early stages. Afghanistan is struggling to put a government together in the aftermath of a desperately flawed election and talk of a Loya Jirga is in the air. There is a sense that threat could be turned into opportunity and as the landscape changes an opportunity for pragmatic engagement emerges. Talking to the Afghan Taliban was going to have to happen at some point, and behind the arras there may just be whisperings of peace.

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Through an amendment to the National Command Authority Ordinance which he re-promulgated along with a series of other laws from the Musharraf era hours before they expired, President Asif Ali Zardari has handed over control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons to the PM. The move, it seems, is intended to symbolise a willingness to strip the presidency of powers. The president has also stressed that the 17th Amendment, which allows him to dissolve parliament, will be done away with by December. As in other matters, Mr Zardari has played his cards rather badly. Had the 17th Amendment gone earlier, the president could have claimed for himself status as some kind of saviour of democracy. Coming now, it seems quite evident that the decision to give up control of the National Command Authority is rooted in the need to release some of the mounting pressure. The president will be hoping his action will appease the forces alienated from him – and at least buy him some time. It is unlikely this will happen.

Too much time has gone by; too much has happened through the past weeks and months. Gestures are no longer enough. People seek genuine change and patience is fast running out. An immediate undoing of the 17th Amendment would make some impact. Merely fiddling with existing legislation means nothing. After all, command of the NCA, beyond a symbol of authority, means little in practical terms. However, the action on the eve of Eid does show us that the president is possibly panicking. The mounting pressure seems then to be taking its toll. Mr Zardari appears desperate to save himself. But unfortunately he still seems not to have realised that concrete measures will be required to do so. Flimsy, half-hearted actions will lead us nowhere at all.



The prime minister has suggested in an interview that an increase in US troop numbers in Afghanistan could bring problems for Pakistan because militants may escape across the border into the country. The comments point to the links between militancy in the two countries and the fact that the porous border which lies between them has made it relatively easy for the Taliban to come back and forth at will. They have indeed been using this ability since the earliest days of the operation against them as a strategy to avoid capture. But what both Islamabad and Kabul need to accept is that, for this very reason, the militants need to be tackled simultaneously in both places. The war should not be a question of driving the militants away but of ensuring they are defeated wherever they are based. At present, there is little doubt in the eyes of the world that it is in Pakistan and Afghanistan that the headquarters of militancy lie. There is a great deal to gain from altering this perception.

To achieve this Afghanistan and Pakistan need to work together. A joint strategy to defeat the Taliban is vital. Indeed there is simply no alternative. The Pakistan army’s brave battle against militants across the tribal territories has been remarkably successful. It is vital that the gains be consolidated. The key militants must not be able to move across the Durand Line and lie in wait until it is one day safe to come back. There is a real danger that this could happen. The only way to prevent it is to work with Kabul. Logic suggests action on both sides of the Frontier could trap many militants and thus bring both countries closer to that elusive goal of peace. It is possible that expanded US forces in Afghanistan will make it more probable that such a strategy can be planned. Pakistan needs to demand that this happen. It is true that in recent years Islamabad and Kabul have not always seen eye to eye, either on terrorism or on other issues. There have, from time to time, been accusations and counter-accusations. But both countries must realise that the need for combating terror must take precedence over all else.



The annual ritual of slaughter has taken place. Many of us have gorged on meat. Families unable to afford what is in our country a luxury have also benefited from the donations made to them. We must though also keep in mind that some have turned down meat handouts on the basis that they cannot afford the oil or spices to cook it in. These harsh economic realities are something we must face up to. There must also be some question as to how much we think about the sacrifice and what it represents beyond the bare basics. Certainly it is hard to find much holiness in the blood that lies spattered across pavements or the dumped remains of animals that litter roadsides. Even where civic authorities have made provisions to collect waste, citizens often make little effort to act with responsibility. We must wonder what this says about us as a nation and as a people.

It is also telling that the simple act of sacrifice has become a matter for competition or a display of wealth. People who can afford to do so have been bringing in cows from Australia to present as sacrifice. There is no way of knowing how far noble intentions go along with the enormous sums of money spent for this purpose. In some cases at least a quite obvious effort to outdo neighbours comes with the purchase of the animals. Even children boast about the beasts they will be slaughtering. We need to think harder about our religion. Over the years it has increasingly been observed simply by carrying out rites but forgetting the principles that lie behind them. There should be more discussion and debate on this. Occasions such as Eidul Azha act as a reminder of this need. Our media has in some cases acted to create awareness and to raise questions which are not usually asked. This effort needs to be encouraged and indeed pushed into the mainstream so we can make maximum gain from a religion which has an immensity to offer but the spirit of which is frequently neglected in a society given to ostentatious display and a love for ritual that takes precedence over all else.

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Regards,
P.R.

The Zardari presidency is clearly crumbling before our eyes and the president has little chance of avoiding this disaster, which is of his own making. Domestically he has lost the support of the media with but a few diehard exceptions. He has scant support by the military and is being harried by an effective opposition. At the grassroots his popularity is at rock-bottom. Internationally, the US is said to be fearful of presidential 'collapse' and he is under intense pressure to scrap the 17th Amendment and restore the powers of both prime minister and parliament. Foreign media, particularly in the US, speculate about the weakness of the presidency and how that reads across to the difficulty faced by America and others to determine the future shape of policy on Pakistan. To say that Mr Zardari is the wrong man in the wrong job at the wrong time understates the case by several orders of magnitude.

But what is happening to President Zardari needs to be seen as part of a process and not an isolated political event. The process is that of transition and it is neither smooth nor quick. The shape of the state has become distorted over decades, as have the roles of the institutions of state, and restoring them to their rightful shape is painful and difficult. Currently we may be seeing the beginning of the long end of dynastic politics in one of the principal political parties and it may eventually follow in others. Power is moving back to the prime minister's office, the eventual death of the 17th Amendment will restore some parliamentary function and in the short to medium term the process of transition will be complete. There will be a pause for consolidation and institutionalisation of the change process before moving forward again. The president is not going to go quietly and he will fight to retain what he can of his power and position, but the die is now cast – it is a matter of 'when' and not 'if'. It could have been so different had he kept a few more promises and not lost touch with an electorate that in reality was voting for his slain wife and not him as the leader of the hour. But it was not to be and the president who should never have been will be another sad footnote in our political history.


Even as people attempt to recover from the unrelenting inflation, there is another shock in store. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority has delivered a sudden, sharp shock. The prices of petrol have risen by just over Rs4 per litre, to Rs66. We are told the increase, for December, has come in response to rising international prices. This is a double blow for the poor. Kerosene oil -- the fuel that keeps the stoves of the least wealthy flickering -- has gone up from Rs57.87 to Rs62.63 per litre. At the same time, the prices of essential food items – which have already been rising steadily – will rocket as a result of the increase in transportation costs brought about by the petrol price change. The slowing in the inflationary trend which we had seen for a few months will vanish. Unscrupulous retailers will add to the 'real' increase to maximise their own profits.

There are other implications. For commuters the cost of getting to work or sending kids to school will go up. Life will become harder still for people barely able to make ends meet. It is ironic that a government which claims to stand for people should be able to do so little for them. Perhaps it does not see that the unremitting inflation contributes to its own poor standing in the eyes of the people. Ministers may fool themselves into believing that, outside an election year, this is of little significance. Indeed too many of our politicians have demonstrated that for them people matter only when the time comes to seek their votes. But they must keep in mind that no government whose standing plummets steadily downwards can survive for a prolonged period of time. The social frustrations that flow through our society have manifested themselves in many ways including extremism and militancy. It is easy to dismiss the rise in petrol prices as a minor, possibly unavoidable, event. But decision-makers should consider the wider impact on our people and on the democratic process which can thrive only if backed by the people.


There are about 400,000 Muslims in Switzerland but few mosques, with the Muslim population going to 'prayer houses' instead; and in the entire country there are just four minarets. The matter of minarets became an issue on which the SVP, a Swiss political party, were so exercised that they forced a referendum by gathering 100,000 signatures over 18 months. The results are discomfiting. More than 57 per cent of voters and 22 out of 26 cantons – or provinces – have voted in favour of the ban on building minarets. This is not what the Swiss government wanted or expected. Opinion polls had suggested there would be a slim majority against the proposed ban, but this populist vote may be seen as an emphatic sign that European nations in general are increasingly intolerant of Muslims within them.

The Swiss government now fears unrest in the Muslim population. It had advised against voting for the ban but the electorate is worried about the effects of rising immigration and a parallel rise of Islam as the faith of a majority of the influx. Condemnation of the outcome is almost universal with religious leaders of all faiths and politicians speaking out with uncommon clarity and firmness. Despite this, populist perceptions of Islam have altered radically since 9/11 and the Madrid and London bombings. The tolerant liberal veneer carefully nurtured since the 1960s has been eroded. Polarities that were latent or masked beneath a layer of multiculturalism and grudging tolerance have risen to the surface across European states, slightly less so in America. In the UK far-right and openly racist parties are gaining ground. They have representation in the European parliament, and the Swiss vote is going to strengthen their hand, providing a rally-point that has the validation of democratic preference. The Swiss result is just the latest indicator of the unease with which Islam is viewed in countries where it is a religious minority seeking its own place and space. It will feed through into the 'Clash of Civilisations' debate and serve to confirm already hardening attitudes far beyond Switzerland. The referendum result may yet be overturned by the European Court of Human Rights or the Swiss Supreme Court, but it has sounded an ominous note on the fate of the relationship between Muslim and non-Muslim populations in Europe.

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Regards,
P.R.

After weeks of waiting we finally have The Speech which may ultimately define the presidency and legacy of Mr Barack Obama. The president made his pitch before an audience of cadets at West Point, America's premier military academy, and it was something less than a vintage performance. He touched a lot of bases in the 4,635 words he spoke including several references to Pakistan – but this was mostly a speech about Afghanistan and how America is going to find an honourable military exit before Mr Obama finds himself up for re-election. Thus we have the outline of an endgame militarily – America is to send an extra 30,000 troops to fight a war that some military analysts see as unwinnable in conventional terms against an enemy that has never suffered a decisive defeat by force of arms. America is set to begin its withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2011 – but there is no date for final disengagement, no commitment in what timeframe the troops will go. All will depend on the ground situation. This by implication means nothing, as a pullout has just been mentioned but is not actually intended. The extra forces that will be deployed are not expected to defeat the Taliban but only try to reverse their momentum and create a space for the Afghan forces to take over. President Karzai has been told to clean up his act (again) and Pakistan has had the stick waved at it (again) by being told that 'safe havens' for terrorists will not be tolerated. The totally unnecessary reference to Pakistani nukes and its control was in bad taste and could have been avoided. It was like rubbing salt on open wounds. This is not how hearts and minds can be won.

Mostly, the speech was about the bricks and mortar of warfare. What was missing was a description of the bricks and mortar that would go into nation-building and here lies the weakness at the heart of the Obama strategy. A sketchy 272 words were devoted to the process of nation-building and reconstruction. It is the failure to give equal weight to the military and civilian vision that has bedevilled the engagement of America and the NATO countries in Afghanistan from the outset. Ousting the Taliban was easy – they took one look at what was coming around the corner and packed up and went home. Soon after this they embarked on a long and successful campaign that now sees them as de-facto rulers of large parts of the country – because there was no strategy to provide a civilian alternative to their rule. There still isn't. It is not the failure to win the war that will ultimately define the outcome of the battle for Afghanistan, it is the failure to fight for, win and hold the peace. Unless and until the same resources and determination are devoted to winning the peace there is no point in trying to win the war. The Taliban will now sit on the sidelines, waiting for the US will and determination to exhaust, because as the Taliban are fond of saying… 'You may have the watches, but we have the time.' It is but certain that Washington and Obama will have to revisit this strategy a few months down the line. And when that happens the costs, both political and financial, may be way higher than Obama's liking.


The ANP has lost another legislator to terrorism. Dr Shamsher Ali, who represented the party from one of the seats it had won from Swat, was killed when a suicide bomber walked unchallenged into his home in Kabal tehsil and detonated himself besides the MPA. Two of his brothers were among the 13 injured. The fact that the bomber was so easily able to enter the house is a reflection of the dangers inherent in relaxing security cover. It appears that with the defeat of the militants in Swat there has been a dropping of some precautions. This is understandable. Living in a state of siege is, after all, not easy. But the latest, tragic incident should act also as a reminder of the need to keep security high. Shamsher Ali becomes the second ANP legislator to fall to militants. A provincial minister died in a bomb blast in Peshawar in February this year. Attempts have been made on at least two other ministers and the party chief at his home in Charsadda.

The ANP has faced a great deal of flak recently. It has been accused of corruption and mismanagement. But we should also keep in mind that its MPAs and activists have, almost alone, spoken out across NWFP against extremism. In parliament its members have stood behind bills seeking rights for women. There have been mutterings, even from within parliament, against them. There is certainly a great deal to criticize the NWFP government for. But it should also be given credit for taking a stand on at least some issues, and for pledging after the latest loss to continue the battle against extremist violence. It is, quite possibly, no coincidence that the assassination of Dr Shamsher Ali took place in the Kabal area. This had long been a stronghold of Fazlullah, the TTP leader in Swat. Now one of the country's most wanted men, he is thought to have fled Swat, possibly for Afghanistan. But there are now new fears that his henchmen may be attempting to continue operations on his behalf. Fazlullah had declared ANP legislators and councillors affiliated with the party to be sworn enemies. In some of his more virulent speeches he had labelled them as enemies of Islam. The possibility of a militant resurgence of any kind still needs to be guarded against in Swat. In this respect General Kayani's assurance on his last visit to Mingora, that there would be no troop pull-out until the final defeat of the militants, is reassuring. But dangers continue to lurk and it is essential that a full plan for the valley be put in place so that militants do not find the niches and crevices they need to regain their hold on society.

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Regards,
P.R.