IN November December 2009, there has been great speculation in international media about the safety of nuclear arsenal and weapons after having published a report of Mr. Samuel Sherman in New Yorker. After the publication of report there were huge discussions in national media about the safety, everyone was saying that pak nukes are safe but nobody was giving evidences or solid assertions. However I found this report published in germany" I think" and republished in Contemporary Affairs by Imtiaz Shahid Book 64. This report well describes about the safety of our nukes.

This report mainly discussess three questions:

1. Hoe Safe Pak Nukes are?

2. How stable Pak Government is to take care of their nukes?

3. What are the likely prospects of Pak India conflict?

First question is discussed in this post while other two would be posted afterwards.

Pakistan as Nuclear Power: Nuclear Risks, Regional Conflicts and the Dominant Role of the Military
(By Oliver Thranert & Christian Wagner)

• Probably Pakistan is the most unstable country of all the atomic powers

• On nuclear test in 1998 Osama was the only who congratulate Pakistan. He also said it was a religious duty of every Muslim to make nuclear weapon for their protection


• Abdul Qadeer Khan network supplied North Korea, Iran, Libya with know how and necessary equipment

• Pakistan’s tension with India is also a main factor in Pakistan nuclear program. It is more strengthened after Kargal, 2001-02 Indian parliament attack and then Mumbai attacks in November 2008.

CONCLUSION OF STUDY

(Summary)

HOW SAFE PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE?

Command and Control

1. NCA chaired by president (Now PM) comprises of ten members. Consists of 50 highly professionals

2. Numeral observers says it is a well-functioning and professional organization


3. Every authorized decision maker is given numeric codes

4. Every order would be checked by two person or three-person rule


Protection against Theft and Unauthorized Use

1. Pakistan have probably six storage sites, some are dummy, warhead are kept separate from fissile parts and from delivery system

2. Depots are located in multiple security zones, detectors


3. Security department established with 1000 professional, trained staff. And an emergency team established as well (Like US)

4. Pakistan has produced indigenous safeguarding system like permissive Action Link (PAL by US), which provides facility to link nuclear arm’s ability to operate with secret codes without which the arms would be useless.


The Insider Problem

1. High security checks before employing a person. Extensive tests which takes up to one year

2. Screening continues on regular intervals


3. Retired and at post scientist go through special screening process before visiting abroad

Safeguarding of Civilian Facilities and the Issue of Export Control

1. Pakistan has 4 heavy water reactors working for energy purposes which are being visited by IAEA experts on regular intervals

2. Since 2000 all civilian nuclear facilities activities are centrally monitored by Strategic Plans Division


3. Since Jan-2001 civilian nuclear activities are under Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA).

4. In Sep-2004 Pakistan Adopted new export control law, a report on which has been forwarded to UN Security Council


• The acquisition of atomic reactor under US program of “Atom for Peace” in 1960s was the beginning of Pakistan nuclear program; moreover Canada provided an atomic reactor in 1972.

• In 1965 Pakistani then foreign minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhuto said that Pakistan would work on nuclear weapons if India does.


• After the war of 1971, then PM Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto called a meeting of atomic scientists at his Multan house in Jan-1972 and directed him to have a nuclear program up in five years.

• In 1974, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, who had experience in Uranium-enrichment centrifuges in Netherlands, he offered his services to Pakistan.


• He came to Pakistan in 1975 bringing several designs and components of G1 and G2 centrifuges. He also had good contacts with multinational companies providing components for the program.

• Pakistan had its first heavy water production facility in 1980 while in 1981-82 a small level reprocessing facility started work.


• In 1987, AQ Khan for the first time declared that Pakistan is capable for having nuclear weapons.

• In response to Indian nuclear test on 11 and 13 May 1998, Pakistan did six atomic explosions on 28 and 30th May 1998.


• Pakistan got financial help from Iran, Libya and Saudi Arabia to build up Nuclear weapon program while China provided nuclear technology.


• Amount of enriched uranium per warhead varies from 5 to 20 kgs

• Pakistan is also interested in plutonium bombs. It is estimated that Pakistan has 40 -50 nuclear weapons (More then 100 is new estimate).


• Nuclear weapons can be delivered by F-16 (USA), Mirage III and V (France) and A-5 (China). Nuclear weapons can be mounted on ballistic missile like Nodong rocket (N Korea, 1500 KM). Reports of development of Ghauri III (3000 km), Shaheen I (750 km), Shaheen II (2000 km), Babur Crouse (500 km) is also under development.

• Pakistan wants to enlarge its program. Pakistan has 1300 to 1500 kgs of enriched uranium and 90 kg of plutonium at its disposal which could suffice 70 to 90 more warheads. Moreover, Pakistan has capacity of producing 100 kg of highly enriched uranium annually; suffice for 5-6 nuclear weapons.


• Khushab I, Khushab II and Khushab III heavy water reactor are operational. According to USA reports “Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear weapon program in the world”.


• Pakistan has never published its doctrine, however, Pakistan sees that its nuclear weapons are to preserve Pakistan’s territorial integrity as well as its independence and sovereignty

• The Chairman of Pakistan Strategic Plans Division, Mr. Gen. Khalid Ahmad Kidwai has occasionally mentioned the scenario in which Pakistan can use its nuclear weapons like; when India attacks Pakistan and occupy its territory, When India destroy a large part of Pakistan Armed Forces, When India impose and economic blockade, When India Politically destabilize Pakistan.


Security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons can be studied in following four sections

1. NATIONAL COMMAND & CONTROL AUTHORITY

• From 1975 till 1998, Pakistan did not have well established command and control system

• National command and control authority was established in march 1999, comprises of ten members, chaired by the President (Now Prime Minister)

• NCA formulates national nuclear strategy, responsible for nuclear target planning, nuclear disarmament and arms control, implementation of export control and to insure security of nuclear installations.

• In December 2007 Gen. Musharraf placed NCA on firmer legal basis.

• Day to day management of NCA is responsibility of Strategic Plans Division which functions as a permanent secretariat of NCA. It establishes policy guidelines for physical security of nuclear facilities as well as development and maintenance of strategic command and communication system.

• Western observers assess Strategic Plans Division as well-functioning and professional organization

• Given this highly centralized command structure, the authority to use nuclear weapons would be delegated to field commanders during crises.

• There are strict checks with numerical codes, presumably established by ISI, to order for use of nuclear weapons. In case of use of nuclear weapons two-person or in some cases three-person rule check is established.

• Report says that no doubt Pakistan has made undeniable progress for security of its nuclear power, however some ambiguities are there; Pakistan uses land and space based communication system which is easy to disrupt using electronic counter measures and it needs to be updated.


2. PROTECTION AGAINST THEFT AND UNAUTHORIZED USE

• After 9/11, Pakistan has after much hesitation, accepted the US offer to improve the safeguarding of Nuclear weapons and facilities. However till date, US have not direct access to any nuclear facility in Pakistan

• There probably six nuclear storage sites while some are dummy for security purposes. Nuclear weapons are stored separate then delivery system and fissil cores are sepearte from rest of warhead


• Depots are located in very large areas surrounded by multiple security zones protected by personals and detectors. US invested more than $100 million in nuclear safety. US department of energy and defense has been working on it. Pakistani engineers has been trained in US

• A security department has been established with 1000 professionals and an emergency team has been established as well that can react immediately if any theft reported.


• Three areas remain particularly critical in terms of nuclear safety; accounting of nuclear material, its transportation and its use during crises.

• USA uses a technology namely Permissive Action Link (PAL) for its nuclear security. This technology needs a specific code for the weapon to be used. Bush Administration wanted to transfer this technology to Pakistan but state department said that this would be against non-proliferation treaty. Perhaps US were reluctant because it would give a detail of US nuclear weapons to Pakistan and secondly the information could be transferred to China via Pakistan.


• Pakistan was reluctant to get this technology as it might be thinking that using US technology would facilitate US to get secret information when US wants

• The Chairman of Strategic Plan Division announced that Pakistan has formed a locked based system for nuclear weapons which is equivalent with US PAL.


3. THE INSIDER PROBLEM

• There are 70,000 employees including 7-8000 scientists working in nuclear installations. It has been a threat that someone from them can provide know-how to extremists. It is also feared that someone from military can provide this information to outsiders.

• To dismiss this argument Pakistan has worked with the help of US. It has very good screening system prior to offering job too anybody. Candidate and his family security checks are established. Strategic Plans Division continues its screening on regular intervals. Security clearance is must for retired and existing scientists prior going abroad.



4. THE SAFEGUARDING OF FISSILE MATERIAL AND EXPORT CONTROL

• Pakistan generates only 2.4 % of its electricity from nuclear plants. However it wants to get eleven more nuclear reactors from China by 2030. Currently Pakistan has Canadian Origin (KANUPP), Chashma I (China) and two reactors near Rawalpindi. Pakistan has given access to 18 of IAEA inspectors out of 220 to inspect the installations and is cooperating more than enough.

• Since January 2001, all civilian nuclear installations are monitored by Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) and centrally monitored by Strategic Plans Division


• In September 2004 Pakistan has adopted new export control law which puts more barriers on nuclear exports

(TO BE CONTINUED)