I will put forth that dismemberment of Iraq is not a weak possibility. In countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, something like autocracy will fare much better than democracy. History has shown at many places that democracy has resulted in division of peoples and creation of new countries. Afterall, the differences among Kurd, Sunni and Shia never were so much pronounced as they are now, after the talk of democracy.

Moreover, a divided Iraq, as I mentioned earlier too, with a sovereign Kurdistan, otherwise dependent upon the US, would be in the interest of the US. With that the US can very effectivle exploit the Kurd minorities in Iran and Turkey.

Also, after such heated debates among the legislators of Iraq, the idea of a truly united Iraq, with no regard to any differenciation as to Sunni Shia or Kurd is very far-fetched. A loose federation as put in the recent constitution is a tenuous hope. If that is rejected, anarchy will ensue and then the worst dreams of Muslim umma may come true ( God prevent that!).

Regarding the out of box question, debate would sound out of context here. May be on a separate thread, we can discuss that. Then I would love to hear your and other people's views on this.