AOA to all respcted members, iam here posting my CA notes that i prepared last year to the best of my knowledge and they contain information and other data till march 2011, i wud request all the senior members to check my notes and give me useful suggestions to update these notes according to the recent happenings regarding each and every topic (which new headings should be added keeping recent developments in view and wat shd be subtracted out due to irrelevance)..Suggestions, guidance, constructive criticism are invited and most welcumed from my side...hope these notes will also help newcomers as my other notes such as PA and Islamiat have helped them....Iam grateful to all who have taken interest in my notes and guided me with their useful tips and suggestions.especial thanx to syeda sabahat, aariz and others who have been with me all the time....hope to continue this effort.
Afghan Crisis
Outline:
•
Historical Background
• Incident Of 9/11 And End Of Taliban Rule:
• Operation Against Al-Qaeda Network.
• Surging Of Forces In Afghanistan
• Pakistan’s Commitment In War On Terror And American Response
• Preparing For Post US-Afghanistan
• Aftermath, Once India Would Seize The Opportunity In Afghanistan
• American’s Mistakes In Afghanistan And Repetition Of History-Critical Analysis
• The Road To Peace-Conclusion
Historical Background:
Afghanistan is an under-developed landlocked mountainous Muslim country of South West Asia. Since ages tribal system had been the basis of its society. The Afghan people are brave, peace-loving and devoted Muslims. They had been living peacefully under princes and kings. This state of affairs continued till 1973 when King Zahir Shah was deposed by Mohammad Daud and the country plunged into civil war and disharmony is continued to this day.
After the fall of monarchy in 1973, Afghanistan fell victim of chaos and confusion. The Soviet Union exploited this situation and establishes its control over Kabul in 1979 which lasted till 1988. After the withdrawal of USSR, Afghanistan was ravaged by civil war which ended in 1996 when Taliban became the master of this land. Taliban rule was marked by Islamic fundamentalism which led to the establishment of Al-Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden. The Taliban attracted the attention of the world by their fundamentalism and strict policies towards women folk and the non-Muslims. In the meantime, US and Britain charges Afghanistan with the acts of supporting Terrorism and freedom fighters in Chechnya. In this connection, US launched a Cruise missile attack against the bases in Afghanistan in August 1998.
Incident Of 9/11 And End Of Taliban Rule:
Afghanistan became the focus of the world after the terrorists attack on WTC and Pentagon in New York and Washington on September 11, 2001. US blamed Taliban-sponsored al-Qaeda for these attacks. As a result, US-led UN forces attacked Afghanistan, and on 13th November, 2001 dislodged the Taliban rule. Later on, all the factions of Afghan people participated in the Bonn meeting and on 5th December 2001 signed an agreement to establish a 30-member Interim Government under Hamid Karzai which installed a democratic government through a Loya Jirga.
Operation Against Al-Qaeda Network.
After establishing an Interim Authority in Afghanistan, US-led multi-nation forces began operation against Al-Qaeda network and their supports. This operation has been continued since January 2002 in all parts of Afghanistan. Ruthless force is being used to kill or capture militants of Al-Qaeda and their supporters. As Taliban forces are also engaged in this operation, but so far the American forces have to failed to clear the land from Extremists. The Afghan people are the main sufferers because continuous state of war has not only ruined their country but also deprived them of food, shelter and peace.
Surging Of Forces In Afghanistan
US forces in Afghanistan have surpassed those in Iraq since 2003. US numbers in Afghanistan are scheduled to peak at about 98, 000 after the first detachment of 30,000 reinforcement. Obama has given his senior commander, Gen. Patraeus until July 2011 to turn the tide of insurgency and bolster forces.
Pakistan’s Commitment In War On Terror And American Response
Pakistan has lost more soldiers than the combined loss suffered by foreign forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and more civilians than lost in 9/11 strikes which eminently reflect Pakistan’s commitment in the war on terror. Despite Pakistan’s such commitment and immense loss in the WOT; the US is continuously threatening Pakistan with following serious consequences:
i) Chocking the country economically
ii) Invasion on FATA
iii) Drone strikes across the country
iv) Seizure of nuclear storage sites by special operations
v) Air blitz against these sites
Instead of living in mortal fear the Americans should shed the paranoia that has gripped them and the arrogance that characters their conduct with the weaker states and show some grace, serenity of mind, understanding and respect to Pakistan’s concerns and constraints. Their uncalled for outburst against a ‘partner’ would only serve to alienate the Pakistani people even more.
Preparing For Post US-Afghanistan
As a consequence of the rapid deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan has also preparing option in case the US departs. Pakistani officials who speak of the US-led coalition as “occupation forces” in Afghanistan, are convince that history will repeat itself and that the US will sooner or later leave the region. Once the Americans are gone, NATO determination will fade and Afghanistan will be left to itself.
The Taliban tactics so far has been to attack where NATO presence is weak, but they are now able to mass more and more fighters and launch large-scale raids. They will most likely take on NATO troops directly, thus increasing the number of causalities.
Should Western troops leave the country or reduce their number to a symbolic presence, the position of Afghan government could well weaken. Pakistan would be faced with political vacuum that it believe would have to fill to prevent any other power from acquiring a predominate influence.
Aftermath, Once India Would Seize The Opportunity In Afghanistan
i) India will try to sandwich Pakistan between the threats from both Eastern and Western borders.
ii) It will exploit every possible opportunity to spark the flames of sectarianism and ethnicity in Baluchistan and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa.
iii) Pakistan’s economy will be strangulated by the Indian blockade.
iv) The regional balance of power will be destabilised massively.
v) Indian’s extended presence in Afghanistan will create problems for China as well.
vi) The US will cash in the opportunity by selling military hardware to India in the name of upgrading overhauling the Indian Army to enable it to take on Chinese forces.
American’s Mistakes In Afghanistan And Repetition Of History-Critical Analysis
History is repeating itself in Afghanistan because America is repeating the mistake made by the Soviets. They are being made to pay for their folly of overestimating themselves, and understanding the skill and fortitude of the Afghan guerrillas. As a consequence, they have put in place a new strategy of withdrawal of International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) from Afghanistan from July 2011 onwards.
The first mistake made by America was to defy history. But having chosen to do so they should have assigned the resources needed to accomplish the mission. Thus, their main effort should have been in Afghanistan not in Iraq.
Their second mistake was to initiate the air-bombing campaign without securing the crossing sites on their sides of the Durand Line to prevent the Taliban and Al-Qaeda from escaping to tribal areas of Pakistan.
Their third mistake was not to end the Taliban domination in the mountains where they have their safe havens. Yet instead of taking corrective action they persisted with the mismatch between the mission assigned and resources given. Consequently, they have suffered operational setback and blamed Pakistan for them.
The additional US forces sanctioned are still not enough to accomplish the mission. However, the least that can be done is to employ the available forces judiciously. One, for blocking at last those crossing sits which are used by the Haqqani group to make forays into Afghanistan from North Waziristan and two for ending the domination of the mountains by the Taliban.
The Road To Peace-Conclusion
Pakistan must learn from past and stay away from a future role in Afghanistan or the impeding civilian war in the next round will enter our land and there will be no stopping the national nosedive to extinction. Ultimately, the situation to the problem lies in sorting out the people’s difficulties connected with governance and security in the first place.
The road to peace in Afghanistan lies in making a major governance overhaul that needs to be administrated by someone who is acceptable to all the people. In the existing situation that someone could be from the former King Zahir Shah’s family-that person can craft an exit strategy through which Afghanistan could re-emerge as a peaceful country under democratic constitutional monarchy working under parliament. This formulation is likely to be acceptable to many ethnic nationalities in the country including the Taliban. Pakistan could do well to encourage such move.