22-09-2011


THE assassination of former Afghan president and leader of the High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani, appears to have dealt a severe blow to the prospects of peace in Afghanistan. While talk about peace talks on various tracks has grabbed the headlines in recent months, the reality is that next to nothing is known about the content and pace of the engagements with Taliban emissaries and go-betweens. In fact, some commentators familiar with the region have suggested that a `peace process` has been stillborn as all sides are still waiting to see what the emerging strategies of the other sides are. And yet others point to the somewhat encouraging noises that have come from the Taliban camp which seem to suggest that a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan is not off the table altogether. Could it be, then, that there are rifts in the Afghan Taliban camp itself?

What is clear is that the assassination of Mr Rabbani has left President Karzai`s strategy for engaging the Taliban in tatters. Mr Rabbani, while seeking to engage Pakistan and other groups inside Afghanistan, was always controversial in the eyes of the Taliban because of his links with the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance, of course, would seek to have a nominee leading the internal peace process who is close to their camp for fear of their interests being harmed in a peace process with the Taliban. But for all the controversy attached to him, Mr Rabbani also had stature in Afghanistan and it isn`t clear if there is anyone else on the horizon who can replace him. In any case, with Taliban attacks and assassinations surging this year, can they be counted on to do anything other than press for victory?

For the Pakistani security establishment, the temptation may be to press home the `advantage` they have retained in the form of links to some Afghan Taliban groups, particularly the Haqqani network, now that it appears the Taliban`s always-unproven appetite for a political settlement has waned even further. But that is almost certain to lead to a deterioration of ties with the US in the short term, though it remains unclear if the US has the necessary tools to compel Pakistan to change course in its Afghan policy. For now, it appears the violence in Afghanistan will continue to creep upwards, accusations and recriminations between Pakistan, the US and the Afghan government will continue to flow and fear and apprehension in the region will continue to grow. Afghanistan does not have to descend into chaos; but are the stakeholders willing to do what it will take to prevent that from being the outcome?


EVEN though it was not the first attack on Shia pilgrims in Balochistan, the modus operandi of Tuesday`s cold-blooded murder of 26 bus passengers near Mastung showed a descent into new depths of savagery. The pilgrims, mostly from the Hazara community, were lined up by terrorists who checked their identity cards before mowing them down. An ambulance going to the aid of the victims in Mastung was fired at, killing three people. Lashkar-i-Jhangvi has brazenly claimed responsibility for the two heinous acts. One is appalled by not only the militants` fiendish mindset but also the authorities` failure to provide protection to buses carrying vulnerable pilgrims. What is also cause for regret is the tour operators` indifference to their clients` safety. While it is true that the terrorists are quite capable of meticulous planning and a careful choice of targets, the authorities should have had the common sense to anticipate Wednesday`s killings, given that this was the third such sectarian attack in Balochistan since July. Surely, if an entire community, vulnerable to such attacks, cannot be provided security, there are ways in which safety can be assured for smaller groups, such as pilgrims, likely to be targeted. The obvious measure would be to have well-armed security escorts in vehicles forming a cordon round buses carrying pilgrims. The success of this mode of security was demonstrated in the Hub area in July 2007 when police vans were able to beat back an attack on Chinese engineers and kill many terrorists. Similarly, the tour operators and the security authorities could work out a scheme to have armed guards within the buses.

The fight against Lashkar-i-Jhangvi is part of the country`s larger battle against the Taliban who have declared war on the state and people of Pakistan. The enemy is ruthless and indifferent to human suffering and innocent deaths, and targets school buses, hospitals and funerals without any qualms of conscience. While the government has to operate within the sphere of the law, these constraints should not deter the state in its resolve to stamp out terrorism in all its forms and give protection to the people.