DAWN, 16-11-2011


CHIEF JUSTICE Iftikhar Chaudhry’s remarks on Monday during the hearing of the rental power plants case focused on an interesting point: why did it take until an order issued by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in the wake of riots in several parts of Pakistan for power cuts across the country to subside? The correlation, if not causality, between more electricity supplied and prime ministerial orders appears strong and the court was probably right in implying that a government used to procrastinating and avoiding policy decisions had probably not done everything within its power to mitigate the power crisis when it flared up recently. However, scratch the surface and what appears to be a short-term solution may actually be contributing to further long-term misery.

Essentially, what has happened is that power demand which had shot up to 16,000MW-17,000MW a couple of months ago has subsided to around 12,000MW across the country as temperatures have dropped in most places. So while the emergency billions released by the government to help certain entities in the electricity production chain avoid default provided momentary relief to the people, it is really the drop in demand as opposed to a meaningful increase in production that has helped bridge the gap and reduce power cuts across the country. In March, the power shortage will once again become acute, and at that point more ‘emergency’ measures will have to be taken.

Could the government do more? Certainly. In the long term, reducing dependency on expensive imported fuel and exploiting domestic power supplies, whether coal or hydel or alternative energy, more vigorously are obvious policy measures that need to be taken. However, the government has so far failed to come up with a comprehensive energy plan. In the near term, the government has to draw up measures to recover outstanding bills owed by the various provinces and public entities, take steps to cut down on pilferage and technical losses and to keep electricity prices at a level where more debt isn’t piled on the system. None of this is a secret or particularly hard to understand. The problem is that a political government going into election cycle is loath to take tough decisions anywhere in the world. Here in Pakistan, the problem is compounded by the fact that the government has evinced little interest during its term in serious policy matters. While it may not be as simple as flipping a switch to give Pakistan the electricity it demands, neither is it as impossible a task as the government makes it out to be.


PRESIDENT Bashar al-Assad’s international isolation is deepening. The UN has condemned his brutality, the European Union has slapped sanctions, the Arab League has suspended Syria’s membership and the Organisation of Islamic Conference has come out with an unusually strong warning. The Arab League’s ire is understandable. On Nov 2, Arab foreign ministers gave Damascus 15 days to implement its plan, which asked it to end the crackdown on civilians, withdraw troops from protest hubs, release the detainees, negotiate with the opposition and allow foreign observers in. The AL also threatened to close its embassies in Damascus and to negotiate with all “currents” of the opposition. The AL decision was not unanimous, but the fact that only two members — Yemen and Lebanon (besides the regime’s representative) — voted against it shows that an overwhelming majority of Arab opinion considers the Assad government guilty. The AL felt humiliated when pro-regime supporters attacked the Qatar and Saudi embassies, besides those of France and Turkey. The Arab League is meeting again today to review the situation, because there were some doubts about the utility of the Nov 2 decision. Nevertheless, given the deteriorating situation, Mr Assad’s options are getting fewer and fewer.

There are desertions in the army on a larger scale, the casualty toll —3,500 deaths — is approaching the Libyan figure, and protests have spread to outlying areas. Over the past two days alone, some 70 people have been killed in clashes between protesters and security forces. While a Libya-like foreign intervention is not feasible or desirable, both AL and OIC have given hints about what lies in store for Syria. The AL said it would have to consider seeking international protection for Syrian civilians, and OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu warned that the intransigence of the regime risked an internationalisation of the Syrian crisis. Whether Mr Assad has learnt from Col Qadhafi’s fate we do not know. But a widening of the internal conflict, especially in a country that borders Israel, will have geopolitical ramifications, unless sense dawns on Mr Assad. As Mr Ihsanoglu said an internationalisation of the crisis would not be “in anybody’s interest”.


SHAH Mehmood Qureshi has quit the National Assembly and left the PPP. This decision was hardly taken in the heat of the moment. In the months since Mr Qureshi first showed intentions of quitting the party, following his removal as foreign minister, he has been weighing his options: old friend Nawaz Sharif or upwardly mobile Imran Khan? His resignation from parliament does fulfil Mr Khan’s requirement for embracing current legislators. If the theory about a downsizing of political parties before the next elections is to be believed, Mr Qureshi is big enough to play his role in the expected splintering up of the parties. The PPP will surely feel the loss.

President Asif Zardari’s loyalists argue Mr Qureshi discovered the ‘truth’ after his removal as foreign minister. They say his is not an abdication but a dismissal. The real reasons for the split may lie somewhere in between the two contrary positions, with Multan — home to both Mr Qureshi and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani — providing the basis for a quick summing up. The rising influence of other Multan-based groups (Gilani) and Multan-based pirs (Gilani) was not lost on Mr Qureshi. An insight into how slighted he must have felt was provided recently when two Punjab Assembly members from areas falling under his constituency complained of being ignored by Mr Gilani. As foreign minister Mr Qureshi enjoyed independence, the portfolio requiring little input from the prime minister. A change in ministries would have made him beholden to Mr Gilani. As a pir and senior political leader with local interests to watch, he did not want to be in a position where he was seen to be subservient to another pir and politician from his own area — especially at a time when the PPP was perceived to be struggling to retain its popularity.