May 18, 2012
Jonathan Power

The two bombs that went off last week in Damascus, killing 55 people suggest that Al Qaeda is out and about, not on the verge of defeat as appeared so after the death of Osama bin Laden.

The movement that claimed to be responsible, the Al-Nusra Front, whilst independent, almost certainly has ties with Al Qaeda. In an eight-minute video released in February Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, who took over from bin Laden, urged Muslims to help “brothers in Syria with all that they can”.

According to US intelligence Al Qaeda in Iraq responded by establishing terrorist cells in Syria. This is one reason why the US and the NATO don’t want to get militarily involved in Syria. They have, at last, learnt that it would radicalise more people and push them towards Al Qaeda. (Besides, the situation is not as straightforward as it was in Libya with one all-powerful strongman, one dominant religious sect and a fairly united armed opposition)

In Iraq Al Qaeda is active killing in January 132 Shia pilgrims. In Yemen it is in control of several southern provinces. It also nearly perfected, before the intelligence services of Saudi Arabia and the US got to know of it, an undetectable explosive-filled underpants to be worn by a suicide bomber intending to board a US airliner. Al Qaeda is the main supporter of Al Shahab in Somalia, which has wrecked much havoc although it is now losing strength. It is also increasingly active in North Africa with its influence reaching as far south as Nigeria. There appear to be connections with Boko Haram, the militant group in the north of the country, which has conducted many bombings of churches as well as UN headquarters in Abuja. Some observers believe that once US and NATO troops leave Afghanistan in 2014, the Taleban will invite Al Qaeda back in. However, others believe the organisation has now distanced itself from Al Qaeda and will continue to do so.

Al Qaeda’s reach depends on its franchise system. Without central control, only advice, these autonomous groupings could well increase in number. However, it is important to note that there hasn’t been a serious bombing in the US since 9/11 and not in Europe since the horrendous bombing of four commuter trains in Madrid in 2004.

Added to the positive list is the effect of the Arab Spring, which has brought non-violent change to Tunisia and Egypt and in Syria infuses the majority of protesters who are non-violent. The protesters and the democratic movements they have catalysed are largely insulating their countries from Al Qaeda proselytising.

Perhaps the biggest worry about Al Qaeda should be under-reported Bosnia.

I am convinced of this after reading a book by Shaul Shay, head of the Israeli Defence Forces’ Department of History. Although he doesn’t say this, there are Al Qaeda sleeper cells right inside Europe in a country that could in some years’ time join the European Union.

Al Qaeda and other militants went to Bosnia, he writes, when it was at war with Croatia and Serbia. They were involved in a number of atrocities carried out by the Bosnian army. As well a number of the suspected 9/11 bombers had been active in Bosnia. There are also militant cells in Albania, and parts of Kosovo and Macedonia.

Bosnia got off lightly in Western reporting of the war in ex-Yugoslavia that in a way concentrated on the attacks and massacres by Serbian and Croatian forces. It was usually overlooked that the leader of Bosnia, Alija Izetbegovic, had encouraged the youth to fight with the SS-Waffen divisions during the war. Later, Izetbegovic had no scruples about inviting in the militants, some of whom had joined Al Qaeda, to help in the fight against Serbia and Croatia. That was overlooked, too.
Jonathan Power is a veteran foreign affairs commentator
Source: Khaleej Times