Raza Khan

The attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Lashkar-e-Islam have surged and yet again Peshawar is the victim. There have been more than five major attacks in less than three days, suggesting that the TTP militants have successfully regrouped.

This time round, the insurgents not only have targeted the police personnel but they have even attacked the civilians in Peshawar and that, too, in the Hayatabad locality, the most posh area of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa capital.
The attacks are not only disturbing for the residents of Peshawar, but suggest that the insurgents are far from being defeated. While inquiring after a friend who resides in Hayatabad, just after a barrage of rockets hit the area around 9:30 p.m. on May 11, he told the author that he just escaped the attacks, while the noise of the rockets hitting the area was deafening. The attack was made from the nearby Khyber Agency, where security forces are operating against the Lashkar-e-Islam militants. The attacks were quite unexpected, as one reckoned that the security forces must have taken extraordinary measures to secure Peshawar. However, the attacks have exposed the weak security of the provincial capital and now one should expect full-scale insurgent attacks on the city.

It may be mentioned, that only a day before the attacks on Peshawar, the LI commanders made a threat that if security forces would continue their operation in the Shalobar tribal area of the Khyber Agency, they would target Peshawar with rockets and other kinds of attacks, including on the city's airport. The ease and swiftness with which the insurgents carried out the attacks are, indeed, surprising. The rocket and mortar attacks on Hayatabad, although killing only one person and injuring around 15, which are relatively not significant losses, have terrified the residents of Peshawar, particularly those of Hayatabad. Many residents have already relocated to other places, while others are thinking of leaving the area.

According to an unnamed security official, who was quoted as saying by a section of the media, the heavy presence of the fighters of the TTP in Shalobar area of Bara forced security forces to launch military operations to clear the area. The same official said that militants of the TTP had moved into Shalobar and other areas of the Bara plains from the Tirah valley to carry out attacks against security forces with the support of the LI. The Shalobar area of the Khyber Agency is contiguous with Peshawar and the moving in of the TTP insurgents to that area has deeply endangered the security of Peshawar. The Tirah valley is located in the extreme west of the Khyber Agency bordering the Tora Bora mountains of Afghanistan. The coming of the insurgents from Tirah valley to Shalobar in the vicinity of Peshawar is itself surprising.

Although the security officials have claimed that the new development has prompted a military operation in Shalobar area, the question arises that when the whole Khyber Agency has been under constant curfew and military operations than how come the TTP were able to shift so many insurgents to the backyard of Peshawar? Now, as the military operation would be intensified, there are fears of large-scale attacks on Peshawar. It seems that the insurgents have been able to come closer to their long-cherished desire of making large-scale attacks on Peshawar. This is, indeed, a colossal security challenge and one is at a loss that how the law enforcement agencies would negotiate the threat.

More disturbing is the fact of the LI making a common cause with the TTP. It has increased the threat manifold. However, a commander of the LI, Muhammad Hussain, reportedly has denied the presence of the TTP militants in Bara and their alliance with the group. He claimed that the LI has enough power and resources to resist the security forces and that outsiders were not required. It may be mentioned that the Khyber Agency has been the base of LI and the TTP has not been able to get a firm foothold in the region.
However, given the nature of the insurgent groups there have always been chances of both the groups coming close to each. In fact, both groups did come close to each other but there have also been disagreements between them resulting in killings between the two groups particularly. Several fighters freom the Tariq Afridi faction of the TTP and Commander Azam of the LI have been killed in the clashes. The latter has already lost other lives in the said clashes between the two groups. However, if the decision of inviting the TTP insurgents is taken, or has been taken by LI head Mangal Bagh, then there would be no impediment in the way of the TTP and the LI making an alliance and launching militant and terrorist attacks from the Khyber Agency.

If the Taliban are able to dominate the Khyber Agency, it would be a big blow to Pakistani and US-NATO anti-Taliban and al-Qaeda efforts. Because on the one hand, for the first time the most important area of the Pakistani Pakhtun tribal belt known as the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), on the border with Afghanistan, would be under Taliban virtual control. The allowing of the Taliban in Khyber Agency by the LI would come in the shape of handing over of the area to the Taliban because in comparison to the LI, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is, by far, a bigger and more resourceful militant-terrorist organization. There is also a possibility that the LI, finding it hard to engage the government security forces, may resort to merger into the TTP, strengthening the latter at a time when it has come under repeated attacks from US drones and Pakistani security forces and needs critical support.

The history of the Pakistani Taliban shows that they took over control of various areas from other low-profile militant or clerical organizations. In South Waziristan, the TTP capitalized on the conditions after the killing of Nek Mohmmad Wazir in 2005 and Abdullah Mehsud in 2007, by security forces, while in Swat the government action against the non-militant clerical organization, the TNSM were fully exploited by Maulvi Fazlullah, also of the TTP. Once the Taliban have control in Khyber Agency, Peshawar would be in a constant line of fire.

-Cuttingedge