12.05.2013The gift of geography
Pakistan might see some unanticipated changes in the socio-economic structure if the rejuvenated urban youth continues making political waves
By Helal Pasha
The urban youth is making waves. The enthusiasm the young ones showed during the election campaign and before that made some major changes in the political landscape. By now we all know how much impact they had on the elections. The searing adrenaline of the young might continue for a while, and if they have their way, Pakistan might see some unanticipated changes in the socio-economic structure.
Many might not have paid attention to how Pakistan has such abundance of youth in the first place. A huge population explosion that hit the country from the 80s onward would have some consequences. The population paroxysm has lowered the average age in Pakistan, at the same time; this unprecedented growth will harshly scrutinise the dwindling resources of the country.
The poor economic decisions made in the 70s and 80s just did not put breaks on the economic growth; they also took away some essential programmes during the rising wave of dogmatism and promotion of orthodox ideas.
Pakistan had a vibrant population planning programme that was doing a phenomenal work in maintaining the population growth in line with the economic growth. With the slowing down of the economy, the promotion of orthodox ideas, the population management, as the rest of the planning, abandoned at the curb, the country moved on.
People hardly pay attention to the immense correlation that exists between the socio-political and socio-economic conditions. The constant political turmoil in Pakistan has many attributes. The ones that never surface amidst the hype of the Afghan war to the war on terror in the 2000s are the ones that actually force the planners to look for resources at unorthodox places. The quick solutions have led several countries to the vortex. The current Pakistan is no exception. The sounds of slamming doors in the face are growing louder. The exuberance of youth is drowning every other sound.
Most of the domestic investments during the last 30 years from the private sector are limited in scale and scope. The State itself was unable to finance or obtain financing for many large-scale projects that eventually created huge gaps from the power supply to domestic gas supplies.
Many governments in the last 25 years have looked for sources for mere day-to-day operation of the State. The Afghan war became a cash-generating machine for Pakistan. The US discontinued aid to Pakistan in late 80s. After the nuclear tests, sanctions followed. From 1988 to 1997, in less than 9 years, Pakistan saw the rise and fall of five governments and two interim governments.
Political governments were hardly able to meet the growing demands for resources. The demands were pouring in from all areas including the national defense. There might be some ideological commitments or some defense-oriented compulsions, generally known as the Strategic Depth, for Pakistan’s aggressive policy goals in the region. Careful analysis would reveal all were really schemes to grab some fast cash from the parties that had overwhelming cash flow in the Middle East.
Pakistan heard a lot about the threats from the US in the immediate aftermath of the tragic events on September 11, 2001. The perception created by design was that the US threats forced Pakistan to take 180 degree turn in October 2001. The ones paying attention during those traumatic days clearly saw the glee at the prospect of resumption of US financial support. The US threats were not the primary reason for the sudden switch in regional policies, it was a decision based on the anticipated economic incentives immediately after a great human tragedy in the US.
The years that followed September 2001 saw a growing swagger in the leaders of the country. The apparently unstoppable cash flow from the West led to investments in harebrained schemes. The State decided to hook itself with neoliberal economic policies that the West was promoting. Suddenly, Pakistan was the rising star in communication arena. The sales of cellular phones topped all developing countries. The easy auto-financing added millions of vehicles on the narrow inner cities streets. The Nato supply chain created another class that prayed for the continuation of the war in Afghanistan. The ruling elite allowed the religious elements to organise armed semi-militias to ensure that the war in Afghanistan continued.
Historically, Pakistan is on the crossroads of traditional business centres from the Middle East to India and China, and from India to Central Asia. The simplest thing for any economic planner was to use the gift of geography for economic and business benefits. Since it appeared to some that the quickest benefits would come from the geo-strategic use of the geographical situation, Pakistan turned itself into a security state that decided to control the region. The country never had the means to pay for the ambitious strategy. Pakistan is a truly exceptional example of making non-business decisions at the most appropriate business opportunity whenever presented.