12.05.2013
By the time these lines are published, the country would have sailed through the exciting process of general elections — peacefully, fairly and transparently, one hopes.

Everyone who contests elections is ultimately a winner or a loser. Obviously, there can only be one winner amongst the contesting candidates. And if that one is not you, accept the verdict of the electorate and your defeat wholeheartedly.

Otherwise, there will be no difference between you and the extremists who, instead of allowing people to vote as per their sweet will, imposed their choices over them by attacking some parties and asking the people to remain away from them.

Don’t build conspiracy theories or indulge in allegations of rigging for rationalising the win of your opponent. And never indulge in anti-polls campaign as anti-democracy forces would surely benefit from it as has always been the case during the past.

Build new sound precedents. For example, call or visit your victorious opponent to felicitate him/her over the victory. We have something to learn from the developed countries in this regard. Candidates there indulge in criticising the opponents but once elections are held, the loser readily accepts the defeat and congratulates the winner.

And if you or your party have won, ask your supporters to remain within the limits of law and morality. Be patient, caring and unselfish. Bury the hatchet. Invite or better visit all your fellow contestants together. Ask them to guide and help you in serving the masses. Take their feedback as to what were the most important and urgent items on their agenda had they won. Keep in touch with them. This will help you better serve your constituency.

This is what democracy demands to take roots in our country: the spirit of tolerance, conciliation and cooperation on part of both the loser and winner.

With the ECP independent, the print and electronic media highly active and vigilant, voters lists cleared of bogus votes, elaborate arrangements made for conducting free and transparent elections and the people resilient to vote and so on, no party or candidate would continue to harp on the theory of massive rigging or establishment’s interference in favour of some parties to reject the polls results.

All this had made it impossible for parties or individual candidates to indulge in taking over polling stations and rigging on a massive scale as was witnessed in some previous elections.

We have had enough of selective morality. We have had several times been hit by the ‘I don’t accept’ mentality. Pakistan was dismembered mainly for the fact that Sheikh-Mujeebur Rehman-led Awami League, the winner of the 1970 election, was not allowed to form government as per the mandate given to it.

Similarly, in 1977, the military took over as the opposition agitated against the alleged rigging in elections. The period between 1988 to1999 was characteristic of an acute political polarisation between the major parties with Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto.

Between 1988 and 1999, five governments were sworn in against the required/normal two. It was because the PPP and the PML-N wasted no opportunity in dislodging the other by indulging themselves in palace intrigues, and horse-trading, etc.

Going by the principles of popular sovereignty and representative democracy, no one can justify the shenanigans of the religious and political leadership during these years. Some religious figures, unabashedly, played in cohort with the establishment. Routed by the people in 1993, a religious leader didn’t accept the people’s verdict against his wishes and continued his famous Dharnas and ‘million marches’ until the elected government of Benazir Bhutto was dislodged. Then he boycotted the next polls for he wanted elections be preceded by accountability. He didn’t own up these results either because he wanted something else.

The PPPP, the ANP and the MQM, no doubt, didn’t get the level playing field for the TTP threats. There were fears they might go for the boycott, but luckily sanity prevailed. But I am unconvinced if these attacks and threats had any worthwhile negative impact on their final results. Instead, they were judged on the basis of their performance during the previous government. And as the Pakistani electorate usually supports those who are on the receiving end and done wrong to, they might have, instead, gained from the sympathy wave.

The other parties, which the TTP didn’t target, relished freedom to organise rallies and conduct elections campaign the way they wanted. They felt happy for the leverage they got vis-à-vis their counterparts and hoped to capitalise on it. But as it became certain their freedom might not benefit them as they wished, some parties and leaders started talking in strange terms.

For example, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the JUI-F chief, warned that non-state actors would decide the destiny of Pakistan if moderate politics of the JUI-F were blocked. He said the JUI-F was the hope of the nation and the country but conspiracies were being hatched to keep the JUI-F out of the democratic politics. “If our path is blocked, the people would lose faith in parliamentary politics and hence democracy and the country will lose enormously,” he added.

A worker of another religious party recently told me his party chief said if his party path was blocked, they would reconsider their strategy for bringing a change in the country. He quoted the leader as saying that opinions differ on the point as to whether change can be brought through elections or other means. “Some argue otherwise. But I fear if the path of our party was blocked, they would gain majority and I would be hard-pressed to conform,” he said.

What this practically means? Isn’t it a bare warning to the people: Elect us or you would be strengthening those who are against democracy? Can a democratic leader talk this way?

Despite several issues associated with democracy in Pakistan — rigging, horse-trading, role of money in elections, dynasties and feudalism, weak legal framework to impose election laws, etc — democracy is arguably the best ever system of election, governance and accountability contrived so far.

Elections afford the people an opportunity on regular intervals to dismiss those in power if they fail to deliver. It is for the safety, welfare and empowerment of the masses and, thus, cannot be discredited.

The future is now in your hands. Give confidence and hope to the nation that has seen little to cherish in the past. Help build a democratic, moderate and tolerant Pakistan by being a role-model for the nation.

12.05.2013

Plotting for plots
In a country, where the poor majority does not even have a roof over their heads, bureaucrats succeed in acquiring residential plots and agricultural land at nominal prices
By Alauddin Masood

The Prime Minister’s office is looking for 100-120 acres of land in Islamabad’s Zone IV to provide one extra residential plot to BS (grade) 22 federal secretaries over the next eight to ten years. The Prime Minister’s office has desired that these plots should be in a sector having comparable land price with the already developed D-12 Sector.

Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister (PSPM), Khwaja Mohammad Siddiq Akbar, in a written communiqué on April 29, 2013, asked the CDA to submit a final proposal in concrete terms, earmarking a particular piece of land and time framework for development of the proposed plots. Had the Baboos displayed a similar futuristic approach for catering to the infrastructure needs of the country, perhaps, the nation might not be facing the problems that it is confronted with these days!

All employees of the federal government from grade 1 to grade 22 are eligible for a residential plot at official rates. However, these plots are allotted to them on merit and through balloting, near the fag end of their career or after retirement. But, Shaukat Aziz administration doled out one additional plot to all federal secretaries in BS 22, perhaps, to ensure that they didn’t raise any objection to the clamour for increase in salaries as well as perks and privileges, which was rife during those days in the higher echelons of power. Presently, some 95 federal secretaries are looking for residential plots.

If one tries to find out how the top bureaucrats managed to get residential plots at official rates in Islamabad, it would lead him to the mid-1980s and the Junejo-led government’s efforts to meet the shortage of houses in the country by catering to the housing needs of the citizens, in particular the people in the middle and lower income groups. The principal physical targets of the Junejo government’s 4-year housing policy/plan, which was announced on December 31, 1985, included:

1. Creation of 2.2 million seven-marla plots for free distribution among the poor shelterless people of the rural areas.

2. Creation of three-marla plots in the urban centres for free distribution to the destitute (Mustahqeen-i-Zakat) and at nominal price to the shelterless people.

3. Construction of one million houses for the shelterless poor people in the country, including 20,000 rural and 15,000 urban houses in each province.

4. Development of townships at all district headquarters.

5. Allotment of 10,000 small plots, ranging from 90 square yards to 140 square yards, to the low paid government employees in Islamabad.

6. Development and regularisation of Katchi Abadis existing in the country before March 23, 1985 and handing over proprietary rights to their legitimate owners.

The Junejo government’s housing policy was not exclusively for the government servants, but it aimed to address the housing needs of the entire nation, in particular the people in the lower income groups. As far as the government employees were concerned, it was envisaged to create 10,000 small plots, ranging from 90 square yards to 140 square yards, for the low paid government employees in Islamabad.

But, after the Junejo government’s dismissal, the establishment and the bureaucracy circumvented the policy so as to accommodate the elite with the result that the housing problem has continued to grow, both in size and dimensions, over the years. The Shaukat Aziz administration made the policy more beneficial for the top bureaucrats.

Resultantly, against a shortfall of 2.8 million houses in the country in the mid-80s, it now faces a deficit of over eight million housing units, and the officials believe that the shortage continued to grow by about 300,000 houses per year. Against a requirement of 600,000 housing units per year, the actual production of houses in the country remained below 300,000 units per year.

The housing industry, which economists believed accounted for 10 to 12 per cent of GDP and seven per cent of employment, has a great potential as one of the main drivers of economic growth. It can become the biggest creator of jobs and also engage dozens of industries, thus creating demand for growth of the economy on the one hand and on the other contribute to efforts for the alleviation of poverty. As in other countries, the authorities need to encourage the private sector to come forward and make investments in this sector.

In 2007, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz also announced a scheme “Housing for All.” Under the programme, Islamabad Capital Territory and provincial governments were committed to allocating 100 acres of state land at affordable prices to the government servants. In contrast to the Junejo government’s housing policy, which tried to cater to the needs of all vulnerable sections of the society by providing them plots gratis or at affordable prices, the Aziz government confined its largesse to the state minions only. Hence, its “Housing for All” programme was a misnomer! What a novel interpretation of equality or equal treatment to all citizens?

Earlier, state officials were not allowed perks over and above their normal salaries. However, post-1970, the rulers started granting liberal perks to bureaucrats in a bid to get maximum cooperation from the Baboos, which they felt was essential to prolonging their rule and for stifling the opposition. A beginning was made by extending the facility of cars to secretaries and additional secretaries, benefiting BS-21 and BS-22 federal officers and BS-19 and BS-20 provincial officers. In 2007, the government extended the facility of 1000 cc chauffeur-driven cars to its BS-20 officers as well.

However, before 1958, all bureaucrats made their own arrangements for commuting to and from their offices. They did not feel shy even using bicycles for this purpose. The list of federal secretaries pedalling to their offices in those days also included Sir Edwards Snelson, Federal Secretary Law and Parliamentary Affairs, a Britisher who served till the early days of Ayub Khan’s regime. In those days, even the prime ministers felt at ease travelling in old models of cars. Ministers also drew clear lines of distinction between the official and private journeys and used state vehicles strictly for official duties only. The wives of ministers, including Begum Nusrat Bhutto, who wanted to attend social or cultural functions, had to use their private cars or make some other arrangement.

With the passage of time, it appears, the bureaucracy’s lust for perks, privileges and choicest postings has been gradually increasing and it now appears to have become insatiable. In the mid-1990s, during Malik Meraj Khalid-led caretaker government, the grade 20 joint secretaries, who had lost all hope of promotion as additional secretaries, managed to get elevated to grade 21 manoeuvring the creation of 85 new posts. In fact, it was a new cadre, styled as senior joint secretaries. Since then whenever a new administration takes over, the Baboos start efforts to win them over to get some more benefits from them.

Shaukat Aziz administration tried to quench the thirst of the Baboos for perks and privileges by providing them an “additional residential plot” in Islamabad, and the services of a chauffeur/orderly, post retirement. A number of federal secretaries, who were allotted two residential plots each in Islamabad, had already been gifted several plots, both commercial and residential, in other parts of the country. One of them is reported to have acquired over 20 plots, and is still looking for more.

In a country, where the majority does not even have a roof of their own over their heads, over six million children are out of schools and 30 million peasants are still landless, is it not ridiculous that some bureaucrats succeed in acquiring 8-10 residential plots, chunks of agricultural land at nominal price and other perks?

When the masses are not offered such sweetheart deals in the Pakland, they fail to comprehend what have the bureaucrats done to deserve such largesse? Why should overtaxed citizens bear the luxurious life styles of the bureaucrats, especially when they are responsible for the degeneration and decline in service standards? Even some saner elements amongst the beneficiaries from the largesse feel that the limited state resources cannot sustain these additional perks for long.

The writer is a freelance columnist based at Islamabad.

alauddinmasood@gmail.com

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

12.05.2013

Fiscal fiasco
The new government will likely face the daunting task of debt
servicing liability and mammoth fiscal deficit
By Huzaima Bukhari & Dr. Ikramul Haq

“Pakistan, with its small tax base, poor system of tax collection, and reliance on foreign aid, faces no real prospects for sustainable economic growth,” claims a report submitted to the US Congress prepared by James R. Clapper, Director US National Intelligence. It further says that “the [previous] government was unwilling to address economic problems that continue to constrain economic growth and made no real effort to persuade its disparate coalition members to accept much-needed policy and tax reforms, because members remained focused “on retaining their seats in upcoming elections.”

The annual report titled “Worldwide Threat Assessment” that includes the input of sixteen intelligence agencies, including the CIA, notes that “sustained remittances from overseas Pakistanis (roughly $13 billion from July 2011 to June 2012) have helped to slow the loss of reserves. However, Pakistan has to repay the IMF $1.7 billion for the rest of this fiscal year for money borrowed as part of its 2008 bailout agreement; growth was around 3.5 per cent in 2012; and foreign direct investment and domestic investment have both declined substantially.”

Challenge on the fiscal front for the new government would be even more daunting as total debt serving liability till 31 December 2013 is US$ 3.4 billion, if we take into account domestic debt as well. The new government will start its affairs with mammoth fiscal deficit of 7-8 per cent of GDP.

In the report given to the US Congress, nothing extraordinary has been revealed. It is just a reproduction of what Pakistani media has been reporting regularly — in these columns we have written extensively about these matters. The issue is not how much we know about these problems and their severity, but do we have the will and necessary plans to solve them in post-election period?

Quoting the first-ever study, analysing tax declarations filed by Senators and Members of National Assembly (MNAs), Taxation without Representation, released by the Center for Investigative Reporting in Pakistan (CIRP) on December 12, 2012, Sunday Telegraph on May 5, 2013, lamented that “President Asif Ali Zardari and Rehman Malik until mid-March, when the government stepped down ahead of elections, were among those politicians who paid no tax.” Telegraph’s story says: “Last month British MPs highlighted that the UK is planning to inject almost £1.4 billion of British taxpayers’ money into Pakistan over five years, while only 0.57 per cent of Pakistanis — just one in 175 — pay any income tax at all.” This is incorrect statement as not less than 50 million Pakistani, even more, are paying income tax, withheld at source.

As we have mentioned time and again, there exist many misconceptions about tax base in Pakistan. The so-called experts and media men do not understand the difference between taxpayers and return filers. Out of total mobile subscribers of 120 million in Pakistan, not less than 30 million active ones pay 10 per cent adjustable income tax besides sales tax, but only 1.4 million filed income tax returns in 2012. Majority of mobile users may not have taxable income yet they are burdened with undue liability. On the contrary, the top 5 per cent rich just pay a fraction of income tax [withheld at source] on their actual taxable incomes without bothering to file their income tax returns.

Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), during the last many decades, has miserably failed to enforce tax laws, compelling the rich to pay income tax according to their ability. This aspect has not been highlighted in the reports of James R. Clapper and Telegraph. It was also wrongly claimed by Telegraph that the Chairman was forced out ‘for being too good at his job’ — the reality is that his appointment was in violation of established law and rules.

He is the same Chairman who flouted the order of the Federal Tax Ombudsman (FTO) directing the FBR to make public tax declarations of present and former presidents, prime ministers, ministers, and parliamentarians as well as disclose the names of public office-holders who committed lapses in their taxes. This order was passed in the wake of CIRP’s report alleging that nearly 70 per cent of members of Senate and National Assembly having taxable income of Rs500,000 in tax year 2011 failed to comply with section 116(2) of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 by not filing tax returns, wealth statements and personal expenses.

The FTO, in his judgement, said that after insertion of Article 19A in the Constitution, the FBR was under obligation to publish the amount of tax paid by holders of public office, as defined in section 5(m) of National Accountability Ordinance, 1999 [‘NAB Ordinance’].

Section 5(m) of the NAB Ordinance includes in the definition of ‘public office-holders’ all existing, former and incumbent presidents, governors, prime ministers, chairmen and deputy chairmen Senate, speakers and deputy speakers, federal ministers, ministers of state, advisors, special assistants as well as political secretaries to the prime minister, parliamentary secretaries, members of parliament, and auditor generals. It also covers anybody who has been an officer or had been holding a post in the service of Pakistan or any service in connection with the affairs of the federation, or of a province, or of a local council or in the management of corporations, banks, financial institutions, firms, concerns, undertakings or any other institution or has been the Chairman or Vice Chairman of a Zila [district] Council, a municipal committee, metropolitan corporation.

Article 19A of the Constitution says “Every citizen shall have the right to have access to information in all matters of public importance subject to regulation and reasonable restrictions imposed by law.” The FTO held that the FBR was empowered through Income Tax Ordinance 1979 and later Income Tax Ordinance 2001 to publish the taxpayers’ directory, but it did so only once in 1993. He termed it a serious lapse on the part of the FBR amounting to maladministration.

The FBR took the plea before FTO that publicising such details “in the current situation is not without serious security risks”. The FTO rejected this argument mentioning that the assets declared by public office-holders are published by the Election Commission of Pakistan under the law.

It is for the courts now to take cognizance of this matter and enforce the fundamental right guaranteed to the citizens of Pakistan under Article 19A of the supreme law of the land. The Supreme Court may take suo moto notice of this issue of utmost public importance as the FTO has done its job. Democracy and rule of law go hand in hand and without transparency and accountability both remain mere clichés.

The writers, tax lawyers, are Adjunct Faculty at the Lahore University of management Sciences (LUMS)

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

12.05.2013

Sweet concerns
A stronger export mechanism and rigorous
international marketing can help raise mangoes export
By Shahid Shah

This time, you will be missing one Sindhri mango out of three, as climate change has affected mango, the king of fruits, in Sindh, which is facing decline of around 0.15 million tons in production with an estimated decline of 25 per cent in 2013. The production of mango in Hyderabad, Tando Allayar, Mityari, Mirpur Khas and other parts of the province was badly affected due to recent floods. Growers say that rains in some parts of the province have also affected the produce.

Through a notification issued by Ministry of Commerce, May 25, 2013 has been fixed as the starting date for export of mangoes this year to avoid losses through unplanned and premature export of the fruit. Last year too, May 25 was the beginning date for mangoes’ export.

According to Waheed Ahmed, Chairman All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Importers-Exporters and Merchants Association (PFVA), the production of mangoes is being expected at 1.55 million tons while the export target of 0.175 million tons mangoes is set for this year. “Pakistan may fetch $60 million if the target is met.”

In 2012, the target for mangoes’ export was set at 150,000 tons. Exports fell short by 23 per cent as the exported quantity of Pakistani mangoes was only 135,000 tons. Similarly, while exporters expected that selling mangoes overseas will bring $50 million to the country, the actual revenue was only $39 million that is 22 per cent less than the original target. “It is a typical case of ‘businessman proposes and bureaucracy disposes,” says Ahmad Jawad, Chief Executive Officer of Harvest Tradings.

Waheed Ahmed says a limited quantity of Pakistani mangoes would be exported to Japan this year after processing the fruit through the existing pilot Vapour Heat Treatment (VHT) plant. In coordination with Trade Development Authority of Pakistan, PFVA would be promoting the processed fruit in the valued Japanese market.

The Japanese government has already approved the quality of Pakistani mangoes. Ahmed Jawad says the VHT plants might be installed in Karachi and Multan to process the fruit. With the investment of at least Rs250 million, the concerned authorities here have already approved procurement of the plant especially for Multan district, the hub of mangoes.

Jawad says though the plant is multipurpose, it is being imported for processing the highly-valued mango. “The plant, which will facilitate export of fruits and vegetables, especially mangoes to Japan, will also be used for the export of mangoes to Australia, Korea and New Zealand in the future. These plants will process at least 15 tons mangoes daily. In this regard, the country may export mangoes worth around $4-5 million to Japan subject to installation of the plant on time and meeting the laid down requirements before the 1st week of June.”

International barriers on trade with Iran have also reduced Pakistani mangoes’ exports, as Pakistani banks have stopped trade services with Iran, which was, previously, importing 30,000 tons of mangoes from Pakistan. “The country has suffered a loss of $10 million by not exporting mangoes to Iran,” says Waheed Ahmed, adding that the illegal trade or smuggling via land routes is not benefiting the country in terms of revenue. “Last year, international sanctions on Iran brought down Pakistan’s mango exports by not less than 30,000 tons.”

Despite approval, mango exports to the US could not take place due to technical hitches in treating the mangoes at a radiation plant near Chicago and unavailability of direct air service, says Ahmed. Treating/processing the fruit in the US, according to him, is not only a costlier business but also highly risky for the exporters. Besides, the export of the perishable items via sea routes was also not feasible for the businessmen in horticulture sector due to long transit. The only way out to tap the US market is to provide the radiation facility in Pakistan, preferably in Karachi and Multan, he suggests.

Exports to Australia also could not begin because of quarantine issue. Though an Australian quarantine team had visited facilities and orchards in Pakistan to check the quality of the fruit for their market, no development was made in this regard, says Ahmed. “The Ministry of Commerce and other concerned authorities should approach the authorities concerned in the foreign country to have another highly-valued market tapped.”

Ahmed says the exporters would focus on exports to Japan, Australia, South Korea, the US, Mauritius and Lebanon and initiatives would be taken to improve the quality of Pakistani mangoes to increase exports. Pakistan is presently exporting mangoes to at least 40 countries of the world including Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Island, Denmark, Holland, Switzerland, Belgium, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain Kuwait, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Lebanon. The varieties of mangoes exported from Pakistan are Sindhri, Sunhaira, Fajri, Began Phali, Summar Chaunsa, Black Chaunsa and White Chaunsa.

Ahmed Jawad says Pakistani trade missions abroad should be motivated to tap more international markets for Pakistani mangoes. “Unfortunately, every year we add new markets, but practically exports are not meeting the targets due to procedural hurdles,” Jawad says. “It is unfortunate that India beats Pakistan in export of mangoes due to a stronger export mechanism, rigorous international marketing and a strategic mango diplomacy undertaken by their envoys in all parts of the world.”

Jawad says it is not fair to force Pakistani exporters to one port of entry and allow only one unit for irradiations in the US. “However, the Indian counterparts have the permission to irradiate mangoes in their homeland.”

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

12.05.2013

Feeding hunger, poverty
Addressing malnutrition is one of the best investments Pakistan can make in its future
By Irfan Mufti

Pakistan is currently dealing with multiple, complex challenges ranging from low levels of economic growth, aggravated by a major deficit in power generation and resulting low productivity; to frequent large scale natural disasters; high and rising levels of food insecurity with evidence of a nutritional crisis. These challenges are complicated by Pakistan’s position as an epicentre of the war on terror with events elsewhere in the region casting a shadow over much of the country. These developments are overlaid on a country where there is hunger and poverty, and marked disparities in socio-economic indicators among provinces and between rural and urban areas.

At the same time, the country is also facing a silent crisis of malnutrition that is amongst the worst in the world and has not improved for decades. This needs to be urgently addressed in order to safeguard the country’s future development and prosperity. It’s a simple fact that nearly half of all children in Pakistan are malnourished, this undermines their mental and physical growth, as well as the country’s prospects. Pakistan’s leaders must urgently recognize and respond to this challenge, and must prioritise the evidence-based policies and programmes which can address this crisis.

Agriculture has been a mainstay of Pakistan’s economy. The percentage share of agriculture in gross domestic product (GDP) has been declining as the country’s industrial and service sectors have grown. Agriculture accounted for 21 per cent of GDP in 2010, compared to 36 per cent in 1980. The sector provided livelihoods for 45 per cent of the population in 2010, down from 53 per cent three decades earlier.

Pakistan’s food security rests upon its wheat production. The country produced 24 million tonnes of wheat in 2010, compared with 11.6 million tonnes a year in the early 1980s. Wheat has helped feed a population that has grown to 174 million people from 85 million in 1980. Rice production has more than doubled over the same period, rising to 7 million tonnes from 3.3 million tonnes, and is now a major export crop earning US$2.2 billion in foreign exchange. Livestock production has also substantially increased to a value of US$758.604 million from US$51.51 million in 1980.

Given these statistics, it may be surprising for many that the nutritional status of children under five years of age is poor and further declining. According to the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) 2011, the rate for Global Acute Malnutrition (wasting) in Pakistan is 15.1 per cent and, thus, above the critical threshold (15 per cent), with one third of those children being severely affected; chronic malnutrition (stunting) is 43.7 per cent, which again, is a very high prevalence according to international benchmarks; and the iron deficiency rate indicates a severe public health problem. About one third of the children (31.5 per cent) were also found to be underweight. There has been a slight rise in the percentage of acute and chronic malnutrition since 1985 (from 11 per cent to 15 per cent and from 42 per cent to 44 per cent). There was a slight improvement in urban areas (13.6 to 12.6 per cent). The growth of the population in numbers and the stagnation in malnutrition rates has resulted in a tremendous increase in numbers of malnourished children.

The survey also found that 62.5 per cent of children less than five years of age were anemic, compared to 50 per cent in 2001; anemia can be seen as a proxy for 12 widespread micronutrient deficiencies. Almost one child in three born in Pakistan has a low birth weight (LBW). At 31.1 per cent, the LBW rate in Pakistan is higher than the average for the Asian region (27 per cent), and is more than double that for Sub-Saharan Africa (15 per cent).

In the Pakistani diet, cereals remain the main staple food providing 62 per cent of total energy. Compared to other Asian countries, the level of milk consumption is significant in Pakistan, whereas the consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish and meat remains very low. The consumption of fruit and fresh vegetables, which are highly dependent on local seasonal availability, is also limited by the lack of organised marketing facilities throughout the country. Fluctuation in the availability of these important foods is likely to be one of the factors responsible for the micronutrient deficiency disorders observed in Pakistan.

Food consumption is just one of the multiple factors which interact and have an impact on the nutritional status of the overall population. Other important influences include morbidity, poor coverage of health infrastructures and socio-economic factors.

Since Pakistan’s independence (1947), the provision of health infrastructures has improved over time but remains inadequate particularly in rural areas. The under-five mortality rate, an important index of health and nutritional status of a community, is high by international standards: 137 for 1,000 births. A large number of infectious diseases such as respiratory and intestinal infections remain responsible for up to 50 per cent of deaths of children under five, with malnutrition being an aggravating factor especially in the most populated areas.

Consequently today, nearly half of Pakistan’s children and mothers suffer from under-nutrition. More than 1.5 million children in Pakistan are currently suffering from acute malnutrition, making them susceptible to infectious diseases which may even lead to death. This situation is worse than that in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

Without this situation changing, Pakistan risks suffering from a ‘demographic nightmare’ of a growing unskilled, economically unproductive population, rather than the ‘demographic dividend’ which has powered its neighbours’ growing prosperity.

The current malnutrition crisis has been estimated to cost the economy 3 per cent of GDP per year; Pakistan cannot afford to sustain this drain on the economy. This is due to the estimated impact of malnutrition on learning, earning and health. International examples show that improved nutrition improves growth.

Experts suggest several solutions to this complex challenge. If Pakistan implements even the health sector interventions to address malnutrition, rates of stunting (chronic malnutrition) could be cut by one third. Simultaneously, other sectors such as social protection, water and sanitation, agriculture and education also need to play their part. This requires commitment from leadership to plan and implement multi-sectoral interventions.

Evidence-based and high-impact nutrition interventions have not yet been implemented at scale in Pakistan; this should be a priority for policy makers. It is also recommended that all pregnant mothers shall receive recommended vitamins and minerals in pregnancy. Promoting the use of soap and water to wash hand in the households can avoid diarrhea in children under five and will help absorb nutrients from food.

Similarly, increasing agricultural production alone is not enough. Many sectors and stakeholders must be involved in tacking malnutrition, and this needs sustained, high-level leadership. Households and individual people need to have access to enough quantity and quality of food, and need to be free from disease to avoid malnutrition.

Other measures include a community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) approach. This involves activities to mobilize communities around both treatment and prevention of acute malnutrition. Promotion of improved nutrition practices in communities shall focus on women and young children and regular screening of all children for acute malnutrition and referral system to health facilities.

Notwithstanding difficulties, Pakistan has the potential for relatively rapid reductions in malnutrition because it has yet to implement basic interventions that many other countries have already scaled-up.

A new strategic thinking is needed in bringing greater structure and coherence to the packages of interventions from different operational actors like World Food Program, UNICEF, World Health Organization (WHO) and the government. Similarly, local versions of specialised ready-to-use nutritional foods for malnourished children should also be developed.

In conjunction with the management of acute malnutrition, we need to promote improved infant and young child feeding practices with a special focus on breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices. Ensuring supply of Micronutrient Supplementation: Vitamin A and Iron-folate can also bring good results.

Addressing malnutrition is one of the best investments Pakistan can make in its future. The benefits from doing so — in terms of increased health, schooling, and productivity — are tremendous.

The writer is Deputy Chief of South Asia Partnership Pakistan and Global Campaigner. irfanmufti@gmail.com

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

12.05.2013

On a bumpy road to democracy
By Ather Naqvi

Politics is also about timing. And so is writing a book, to some extent. Salman Abid’s book has been widely welcomed at a time when politics is the talk of the town and election fever seems to have gripped the entire nation.

Salman’s latest book serves more than one purposes; while it is a panoramic view of whatever has been going on in the realm of politics in Pakistan over the last more than sixty years, it is also an informative critique of what went wrong and where.

Known for his no-holds-barred analysis of politic in all its colours and hues, the author mainly focuses on the tussle between the democratic forces and the undemocratic ones. The role of various institutions such as the army, the judiciary, and the civil society has been discussed at length in historical perspective.

In this way, the document is a ready reference for a student of politics to peep into an eventful, even gory, episode in Pakistani politics, including what the author terms ‘the judicial murder of Bhutto’.

The book is divided into various chapters for the readers to be able to quickly identify major episodes in the political history of Pakistan. It points to a fundamental issue in its very beginning, the rivalry between the institution of army and civilian governments and the role of the judiciary.

It is also an insider’s account in a way since the author has seen the political process from close quarters both as a political worker and a social activist. The book is, thus, based on deep insight, authentic materials and evidences to prove its point. It also reflects on an author who has been a regular columnist in various daily newspapers and magazines — both national and international.

There is also a thoughtful chapter on the need to give equal importance and place to the third tier of government — the local bodies. The writer laments the absence of the local government in swiftly addressing people’s day-to-day concerns. This he blames on the democratic governments for not realising the need of forming local governments. This is in contrast to the military governments that make local governments their stepping stone.

This book is a necessary addition and a sequel to Salman’s earlier books, such as Pakistan Ka Naya Syasi Nizam and Moqami Hakoomton Ka Nizam aur Baldiati Idaray.

The appendix at the end of the book provides a number of important and interesting documents, such as addresses to the nation by various leaders and army men at critical times, the list of Governor Generals, Presidents, Prime Ministers, and other references. The speech of Nawaz Sharif as Prime Minister to the nation, for instance, on July 18, 1993 is an interesting throwback to the times of political turbulence and uncertainty.

The document is not just about what went wrong and why. A positive aspect of the book is that it urges the readers not to lose hope, arguing that there is still a way to overcome all the political and economic problems and that would only be possible through supporting the political process in various forms and capacities.

Pakistan Mein Jamhooriat Kay Tazadat
Author: Salman Abid
Published by Jamhoori
Publications
Pp: 280
Price Rs: 490

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

12.05.2013

The gift of geography
Pakistan might see some unanticipated changes in the socio-economic structure if the rejuvenated urban youth continues making political waves
By Helal Pasha

The urban youth is making waves. The enthusiasm the young ones showed during the election campaign and before that made some major changes in the political landscape. By now we all know how much impact they had on the elections. The searing adrenaline of the young might continue for a while, and if they have their way, Pakistan might see some unanticipated changes in the socio-economic structure.

Many might not have paid attention to how Pakistan has such abundance of youth in the first place. A huge population explosion that hit the country from the 80s onward would have some consequences. The population paroxysm has lowered the average age in Pakistan, at the same time; this unprecedented growth will harshly scrutinise the dwindling resources of the country.

The poor economic decisions made in the 70s and 80s just did not put breaks on the economic growth; they also took away some essential programmes during the rising wave of dogmatism and promotion of orthodox ideas.

Pakistan had a vibrant population planning programme that was doing a phenomenal work in maintaining the population growth in line with the economic growth. With the slowing down of the economy, the promotion of orthodox ideas, the population management, as the rest of the planning, abandoned at the curb, the country moved on.

People hardly pay attention to the immense correlation that exists between the socio-political and socio-economic conditions. The constant political turmoil in Pakistan has many attributes. The ones that never surface amidst the hype of the Afghan war to the war on terror in the 2000s are the ones that actually force the planners to look for resources at unorthodox places. The quick solutions have led several countries to the vortex. The current Pakistan is no exception. The sounds of slamming doors in the face are growing louder. The exuberance of youth is drowning every other sound.

Most of the domestic investments during the last 30 years from the private sector are limited in scale and scope. The State itself was unable to finance or obtain financing for many large-scale projects that eventually created huge gaps from the power supply to domestic gas supplies.

Many governments in the last 25 years have looked for sources for mere day-to-day operation of the State. The Afghan war became a cash-generating machine for Pakistan. The US discontinued aid to Pakistan in late 80s. After the nuclear tests, sanctions followed. From 1988 to 1997, in less than 9 years, Pakistan saw the rise and fall of five governments and two interim governments.

Political governments were hardly able to meet the growing demands for resources. The demands were pouring in from all areas including the national defense. There might be some ideological commitments or some defense-oriented compulsions, generally known as the Strategic Depth, for Pakistan’s aggressive policy goals in the region. Careful analysis would reveal all were really schemes to grab some fast cash from the parties that had overwhelming cash flow in the Middle East.

Pakistan heard a lot about the threats from the US in the immediate aftermath of the tragic events on September 11, 2001. The perception created by design was that the US threats forced Pakistan to take 180 degree turn in October 2001. The ones paying attention during those traumatic days clearly saw the glee at the prospect of resumption of US financial support. The US threats were not the primary reason for the sudden switch in regional policies, it was a decision based on the anticipated economic incentives immediately after a great human tragedy in the US.

The years that followed September 2001 saw a growing swagger in the leaders of the country. The apparently unstoppable cash flow from the West led to investments in harebrained schemes. The State decided to hook itself with neoliberal economic policies that the West was promoting. Suddenly, Pakistan was the rising star in communication arena. The sales of cellular phones topped all developing countries. The easy auto-financing added millions of vehicles on the narrow inner cities streets. The Nato supply chain created another class that prayed for the continuation of the war in Afghanistan. The ruling elite allowed the religious elements to organise armed semi-militias to ensure that the war in Afghanistan continued.

Historically, Pakistan is on the crossroads of traditional business centres from the Middle East to India and China, and from India to Central Asia. The simplest thing for any economic planner was to use the gift of geography for economic and business benefits. Since it appeared to some that the quickest benefits would come from the geo-strategic use of the geographical situation, Pakistan turned itself into a security state that decided to control the region. The country never had the means to pay for the ambitious strategy. Pakistan is a truly exceptional example of making non-business decisions at the most appropriate business opportunity whenever presented.

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

12.05.2013

Challenges for new government
The new government would not be able to do any overnight miracles. However, one sector where it can provide immediate relief is energy and power sector
By Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri

One prediction can be made with quite accuracy, i.e., economic challenges facing the next government are quite severe. I wish I am wrong, but to my understanding, both the people as well as government of Pakistan would continue to face tough time over economic and energy issues.

The GDP of Pakistan kept on following boom and bust cycle for the last many decades. The last boon in the GDP was in 2005, it declined in 2006, improved in 2007 and since then it is nose-diving. Due to various factors (including political instability, floods, power crisis, reduced foreign direct investment etc.), the last five years’ average GDP growth is around 3 per cent.

This growth is mainly consumption driven and (after a recent change in the base year for national income accounts) services sector contributes a major share in our GDP (50 per cent), followed by agriculture (23 per cent), and mining, manufacturing, construction and energy, gas and water supply (21 per cent).

Services sector can only absorb highly skilled and literate human resources. Large scale manufacturing is badly affected due to energy crisis, hence agriculture remains the last resort of our labour force. Thus the sector with maximum contribution to our GDP cannot offer livelihood opportunity to our major labour force. This is only one aspect of our economic framework, other indicators are not promising either.

Thus investment as per cent of the GDP declined from 22 per cent in 2007-08 to 12.5 per cent in 2011-12. During 2011-12, negative terms of trade led to negative contribution of net exports. During last five years, national fiscal health remained challenged by chronic issues like ineffective taxation system, debt hit power sector, sick public sector enterprises, governance issues, natural and manmade disasters, and security situation. Tax to GDP ratio fell from 11.1 per cent in 2007-2008 to 10 per cent in 2012. In the same period, the FBR tax to GDP ratio fell from 10.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Thirty per cent of the entire tax collection came from POL at various stages.

Chronic misuse of statutory regulatory orders (SROs) remained unabated during the last five years too. Sixty per cent of tariff lines have different tariff rates for different importers through SROs. Despite last year’s budget announcement of having a uniform general sales tax rate (GST) in the country, we continue to have multiple rates ranging from zero sales tax to 22 per cent on certain products.

Low tax to GDP ratio, power sector circular debt (around 480 billion rupees), stocks of unpaid commodity, tariff differential subsidy, unplanned bailouts to public sector enterprises, and natural and manmade disasters led to fiscal deficit which averaged 7.3 per cent during the last three years and may jump up to 10 per cent in current fiscal year. Domestic borrowing remained a major source of financing fiscal deficit, thus crowding out the private sector. Liquidity crunch and power crisis has virtually crippled the private sector, thus negatively affecting new job creation among many other things.

Next fiscal year would start with the foreign exchange barely sufficient for one month’s imports (around 5 billion dollars) and with IMF payment of US$3.8 billion for 2013-14. So maintaining balance of payment would be one of the first challenges on economic front facing next government. Mammoth fiscal deficit would negatively affect the next government’s availability to spend. The next government cannot default on debt services, would not reduce defence and security expenditures, and most likely would have to increase day-to-day administration expenditures to keep all allies happy. Thus, it is very clear that brunt of fiscal deficit would be faced by public sector development programme or, in other words, the people of Pakistan.

The new government would not be able to do any overnight miracles and most of the economic miseries would remain unchanged irrespective of the fact who comes to power. However, one sector where, if it puts its acts together, the new government can provide immediate relief is energy and power sector. Economic and energy growth figures reveal that energy growth follows high GDP growth and vice versa. This is a vicious chicken-egg situation, where we cannot generate enough electricity because we don’t have enough fiscal cushions and our economy is crippling because we don’t have enough energy to meet its requirements.

On electricity generation, our energy mix is highly skewed to fuel oil. In 2005, 27 per cent of our electricity was being generated from oil and 51 per cent from gas. Today we are producing 44 per cent from oil and 16 per cent from gas. Fuel oil was US$20 per barrel in 2005, today it is US$110 per barrel. Oil prices are up 93 per cent from 2008 to date and Pakistan spent US$12 billion in oil imports last year. This energy mix may suit the Gulf countries but certainly not a country like Pakistan.

Among our neighbours, India generates 1 per cent of its electricity from oil, whereas Bangladesh generates 13 per cent electricity from oil. Obviously, due to expensive energy mix, per unit cost of production of electricity in Pakistan is expensive. NEPRA determined average tariffs are Rs 12.5 per KW/h, whereas average applied consumer tariffs are Rs 9.16 per KWh. Thus on an average, we are losing Rs3 per KWh (per unit). This has to be subsidised by the federal government through Tariff Differential Subsidy which is a contributor to fiscal deficit.

The new government would have to face the problem of fiscal management and electricity management. All mainstream political parties have promised to resolve economic and energy crisis. But how would they do it?

The average per unit of electricity (KWh) price in Pak rupees for consumer in India is 7.36, for a consumer in Bangladesh is 5.47, while for a consumer in Pakistan it is 9.16. Our consumer has to pay more than what a consumer in India and Bangladesh pays per unit of electricity used. This is despite the fact that we are subsidising our electricity. We cannot keep on subsidising the electricity, but we cannot keep on increasing the consumer tariffs either. The only way out is to reduce our cost of electricity generation and improve its efficiency of transmission and distribution.

Despite stagflation, demand for electricity and gas is increasing. There is no sizeable capacity enhancement in energy exploration in the last decade. Independent Power Producers (IPP) are running below their capacity (and many of them have closed down) as they are not getting their receivables from the government, whereas the government owned power generation plants (Gencos) are running on one third of their efficiency level. On an average, the IPPs are three times more efficient than Gencos.

An improvement of 5-10 per cent energy efficiency will save about US$200-300 million per annum and availability of additional thermal Mega Watts of generation too. This is something where NEPRA would have to set benchmarks for the generation companies. A decision on performance-based allocation of fuel to generation plants would do the trick. Likewise, most of the electricity distribution companies are incurring huge transmission, distribution and collection losses. Transmission losses are much beyond the NEPRA permissible limit and according to caretaker Minister for Water and Power, these additional (beyond the NEPRA’s benchmark) transmission losses are equivalent to the total electricity requirement of KPK and Balochiostan.

Third major challenge facing the electricity sector of Pakistan is recovery of bills. Sukkur electricity distribution company, Quetta electricity distribution company, Hyderabad electricity distribution company and Peshawar electricity distribution company are among the maximum collection losses. In some instances, it is up to 80 per cent.

Most probably the next government would shift the responsibility of this crisis to its predecessors and would do nothing to resolve the issue using the excuse of lack of fiscal cushion. However, all the new government requires is to plug leakage in fuel supply system, to turn generation plants efficient, and to minimise transmission and distribution losses.

Once the next government would take these short term measures, it would be able to concentrate on certain medium to long term measures including taking care of circular debt; promotion of renewable sources of electricity generation; and breaking the monopoly of WAPDA through encouraging private sector to generate and distribute electricity in a competitive regime (under a strong NEPRA).

We have been politicising the issues of economy and energy for quite some time now. Let us hope that the new parliament would use its political wisdom to resolve these issues.

The writer is executive director of Sustainable Development Policy Institute and may be contacted at suleri@sdpi.org

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

19.05.2013

Naya Pakistan and old realities While the
PML-N put across its message to wide segments of population, the PTI
energised educated, urbanites and violence-hit people of KPK, but failed to create multiple nuances of message to match them with different realities
By Sameera Rashid

The PTI supporters are dismayed that much-vaunted change, that is dawn of a Naya Pakistan, has not occurred in Pakistan, and they are positing possible reasons for lackluster performance of the PTI at polls: election irregularities and apathy of people to change.

Is this all? Or are their other realities too?

After going through party manifestoes, media advertisements and constituency profiles, a couple of factors come to the surface that could have thwarted the march of the PTI’s tsunami in the heartland of Pakistan.

First, the PTI galvanized significant segments of Pakistani society — educated middle classes in the main urban centres, violence-hit masses of KPK and, to a certain extent, lower middle classes of Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad — but the appeal of the message largely eclipsed poor people of urban areas and also the rural constituents.

Having said that, the campaign strategy of the PTI focused on urban middle classes, a class that strongly abhors old style dynastic politics and it was believed that the message would spread like contagion to the lower middle classes and poorer sections of society through educated urbanites. However, it was a strategic miscalculation for a simple reason: the process of socio-economic development in Pakistan is uneven and there are wide disparities between urban and rural areas and, even within constituents of urban areas, so a generalized message, although stated emphatically, can’t trigger adequate response across various strata of society.

Let’s have a glance at the social indicators of certain districts of Punjab that became the battleground province in the 2013 electoral race to illustrate my argument. According to Punjab Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2007-08, there are large variations in literacy between urban and rural dwellers. Literacy rate amongst people over ten years of age is highest in the districts of Rawalpindi (80 per cent) and Lahore (74 per cent) while it is much lower in the districts of Dera Ghazi Khan (44 per cent) and Rajanpur (33 per cent). Therefore, it can be vouchsafed that the receptivity of political message in Lahore would be different from that of Rajanpur.

Lahorites might want that government should make efforts to reduce traffic congestion and high pollution levels while people of Rajanpur might wish for more school buildings. Therefore, ideally speaking, election message must be tailored according to socio-economic aspirations of different constituents.

However, sometimes it is not possible to prepare customised message for all constituencies, especially in case of Pakistan, where bridari networks dominate local politics; so a possible recourse, available to any political party, is to enter into local alliances to broaden its base and give constituents a sense of inclusion.

After riding rough waters of Pakistani politics for three decades, particularly of Punjab, the PML-N used the strategy of building broad-based alliance while keeping the contours of the party message to bare minimum. Further, the PML-N canvassed local support scientifically: it hired top notch consultancy firms to carry out survey of different constituencies in order to understand local dynamics as well as identify winning horses. As a result, in various parts of Punjab, the PML-N managed to woo electable individuals before elections.

Some might say that harnessing support of strong candidates, with complete disregard to considerations to party ideology, is mockery of clean politics. But in Pakistan, with asymmetrical socio-economic development, and low levels of democratic culture, no political party can garner broad-based support, without forming coalitions at the local level. These local alliances enable the constituents to become part of the party in a hierarchical structure, where they lie at the bottom and interact with top party leadership through local politicians.

In fact, in all probability, the PTI’s message of corruption free Pakistan, inherent in Naya Pakistan, might have confounded constituents of semi-urban town and rural areas, as they settle their affairs of thana kachery through the same crooked levers of power.

It leads to a question: how did the PTI manage to win substantial seats in KPK without re-configuration of local structures of power? The answer lies in resonance of the PTI message with aspirations of people of KPK: they wanted corruption-free government and security; the party promised to provide better governance and improved security situation by negotiating peace deal with militants and by stopping aggressive US military actions such as drone strikes on the Pakistan territory.

The PTI campaign also faltered on another ground in Punjab: it concentrated its message on media outlets, especially social media channels, and did not reach to people at grass roots level through different organisations: charitable, student bodies and party youth wings. The inundation of social media, with the message of Naya Pakistan, created false illusion that large sections of society are supporting Imran Khan. In reality, fervent campaigning at social media outlets was producing an echo and re-echo of their own voices and it was not sounding multiplicity of voices.

And compared to the PTI, the PML-N had incumbency advantage in spreading its message: when it formed government in Punjab in 2008, it began planning to stage a comeback at centre by reaching out to people at different levels of interaction: school functions, laptop ceremonies, flood relief camps, trade associations, under pass and flyover inaugurations and anti-loadshedding camps. It kept on sending unequivocal message for five years that, if they were granted comfortable mandate in the next elections, they would sort out manifold woes of people such as loadshedding, inflation and worsening security situation.

Thus, the PML-N put across their party message to wide segments of population, at least, in Punjab while the PTI energized educated, urbanites and violence-hit people of KPK, but failed to create multiple nuances of message to match them with different realities.

The writer is a research analyst and can be reached at Rashid.sameera@yahoo.com

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)

19.05.2013

A good beginning
A far more awakened electorate has given a clear verdict in the May 11 general elections, paving way for a historic democratic transition
By Alauddin Masood

Against predictions of split mandate and a hung parliament, a far more awakened and enthusiastic electorate has given a clear verdict in the May 11 general elections: An overwhelming victory to the PML-N in the Punjab and a near majority to it in the National Assembly (NA), enabling the party to form the next federal government on its own.

With Mian Nawaz Sharif likely to form the next federal government, the people believe that the national economy would receive a great boost during the PML-N’s tenure in office. In his victory speech, Nawaz Sharif has promised a clean and efficient government.

On May 13, while talking to foreign journalists at his Raiwind residence, Nawaz Sharif stated that economic revival would be the PML-N’s top priority and the party would come out with policies on all major issues within first 100 days in office, aimed at making Pakistan Asian Tiger during its tenure.

He said that he would work with the army to solve problems besetting Pakistan, develop national consensus to tackle terrorism, improve law and order situation in Karachi and Quetta and promote relations with all neighbouring countries, including India and Afghanistan. He added, Islamabad and Washington have “good relations” and “need to listen to each other,” especially on the drones issue. He declared to facilitate the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. He asked the PTI chief, Imran Khan, to form the government in KP, urging him to accept the people’s mandate and accept election results.

Throughout the last five year, as the main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif displayed propriety and a balanced approach that facilitated the PPP to complete its five-year mandate. Peaceful transfer of power to the next civilian government will strengthen democracy and continuity in the process will lend further vigour to it, resulting in increasing the confidence of investors, both local and overseas. The Stock Exchange Index has already started to increase and it crossed 2,000 points, on May 13, as if to welcome the PML-N’s victory in the polls.

Though comparatively a younger political party, the performance of Imran Khan-led PTI has been quite impressive in the polls. Securing 29 seats, the PTI has emerged as the third largest party in the National Assembly and the main political force in KP where it has bagged all the NA seats from Peshawar and 34 berths in the provincial assembly, thus becoming the top scorer amongst all parties in the provincial legislature. Since no party has secured absolute majority in KP, therefore, a coalition government would have to be formed in the province. To form government, some 63 members constitute a simple majority in a house of 124.

As Nawaz Sharif offered the PTI the first right to form a government, Imran Khan said he will set up a role model regime in the KP province besides serving as a real opposition at the centre. Elaborating, he said the role of the real opposition in any democratic setup serves as a blessing for the government. According to analysts, both these developments mark a great beginning for the new setup.

Some sections of the society, who expected a much better performance from the PTI, believe that the withdrawal by PPP’s Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan in favour of the PTI contestant in (NA-110) Sialkot created some suspicions about its credentials, strengthening belief in some circles that the PTI was hand-in-glove with the PPP.

Prior to polls, the PPP leaders were so confident about their party’s victory that some of them had publicly declared that despite the PTI emergence their vote-bank was intact and thus their party’s victory was certain; while the PML-N’s vote-bank was bound to erode because of the PTI factor. This also lent credence to suspicions lurking about tactical collaboration between the PPP and the PTI aimed at making inroads into the PML-N’s following. The polling results were, however, eye-opening as the PPP could manage only 33 NA seats. Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood, a PPP nominee who resigned as Punjab Governor on May 13, has termed loadshedding and price-hike as major reasons for the PPP’s defeat.

Even the PPP’s coalition partners — the PML-Q and the ANP — could not escape public wrath. Who said, “Democracy is the best revenge?” You are correct. It was PPP co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari. His saying has proved one hundred per cent correct! Perhaps, those who forget to translate their rhetoric into reality have to face a fate similar to the one experienced by the PPP! However, in Sindh, the PPP has emerged as the leading political party by securing 69 seats, while the MQM has obtained 30 berths and second position in the Sindh Assembly.

In Balochistan, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) has secured 11 seats, the PML-N 08 seats, the Balochistan National Party 02 seats, the National Party 06 seats and the JUI-F and the PML-Q four seats each. There are 09 independents and also a number of splinter groups. Therefore, a multi-party coalition would have to be formed, once again, to constitute the government in the province.

With the reserved seats for women and minorities yet to be filled in, the overall parliamentary strength of major political parties would further improve.

Despite threats and acts of violence that claimed 51 lives even on the election day, over 60 per cent voter turnout in 5/11 landmark elections was the highest since 1970 when the turnout was 63 per cent and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto-led PPP had won the majority of seats. Since then, the turnout has been on the lower side and in 1997, when the PML-N emerged victorious with two-thirds majority, at 35.17 per cent it was the lowest in the country’s 66-year national history. In the 1997 elections, the voter turnout was recorded at 55.02 per cent, while it was noted at 52.93 per cent in 1985 and at 43.07 per cent in 1988. In the 1990 elections, the turnout was 45.46 per cent, while it declined to 40.28 per cent in 1993 polls and showed a slight improvement in 2002 and 2008 elections when it was recorded at 41.80 per cent and 44.55 per cent respectively.

The technology-driven campaigns run by the Election Commission and the three main political parties — the PPP, the PML-N and the PTI — coupled with the mass awareness created by the media channels, social websites and SMS messaging, have largely contributed to the phenomenal increase in the voter turnout and also making them mindful of what is going on around them.

The enthusiasm amongst women and youth was more pronounced this time and they turned up in large numbers at all polling stations to cast their votes, except in Lower Dir, Upper Dir and Malakand, where tribal Jirgas had announced not to allow women to cast their votes. In Multan, a bridegroom, along with his entire wedding party, made it a point to cast vote before going to the bride’s house.

Now, the way has been paved, for the first time, for transfer of power in a manner as laid down in the constitution. This bodes well for the growth of democracy and we can, therefore, term it a success of democracy.

The writer is a freelance columnist based at Islamabad

alauddinmasood@gmail.com

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"Nay! man is evidence against himself. Though he puts forth his excuses." Holy Qur'an (75:14-15)