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Old Sunday, May 19, 2013
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Voters' choice

Nasim Ahmed


Pakistani voters have spoken and given their verdict which is more or less on the same pattern as predicted by many pre-poll surveys. As expected, the PML-N has emerged as the single largest party in the National Assembly and also in the Punjab, although its margin of victory is wider than generally anticipated. The PTI, which has emerged as the third force in national politics, has also done well, but it has not won as many seats as projected by its throng of starry eyed young supporters. On the other hand, the PPP, which has become very unpopular because of its bad governance record, has lost heavily. PML-Q has now been reduced to a party of a few electables, while the MQM has retained its political supremacy in urban Sindh. Religious parties, with the exception of the JUI-F, have by and large, been rejected by the electorate. The ANP has also suffered a big defeat.
It was a tumultuous election campaign which was marred by continuing incidents of violence perpetrated by Taliban militants. More than a hundred people died in pre-poll violence but it goes to the credit of party candidates that they were not deterred. To counter the terrorist menace and provide a sense of security to the people, the army and other security agencies made elaborate arrangements. Army troops, Rangers, FC personnel and police were deployed on a large scale all around the country to ensure peaceful polls.
The election was lent a bit of zing and colour by the enthusiastic crowd of the PTI's young supporters who, bursting with energy and passion, roamed the streets flying party flags. The PTI held mammoth public meetings which created the impression that the tsunami promised by Imran Khan would sweep the polls. However, the PTI's larger than life electoral projection did not translate into votes, perhaps, for the reason that many of its supporters were not of voting age. Lack of experience weighed in as another negative factor.
By contrast, the PML-N benefited from its long experience of electoral politics and its well oiled party machine. It took the challenge mounted by the PTI seriously and activated its party cadre to watch and protect its interests on the home ground as well as in KP, Sindh and Balochistan. As the results show, its strategy worked well and paid rich dividends. But, perhaps, what counted most was its governance record which contrasted sharply with the PPP's dismal performance.
Most PML-N stalwarts have won, including members of the Sharif family who scored convincing victories in the National Assembly constituencies. Nawaz Sharif himself emerged victorious in two constituencies in Lahore and Sargodha, while Shahbaz Sharif won both his NA and PA seats. Nawaz Sharif's son-in-law clinched the National Assembly seat from Mansehra, while Hamza Shahbaz won from Lahore. Former Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan triumphed from NA-52 Rawalpindi. However, two of the PML-N major figures, Khawaja Muhammad Asif and former deputy opposition leader in the National Assembly Sardar Mehtab Abassi, suffered unexpected defeats. PML-N also suffered defeats in NA-55 and NA-56. With the support of the PTI, Awami Muslim League chief Sheikh Rashid Ahmad defeated Shakil Awan of the PML-N, while Hanif Abbasi lost to PTI chief Imran Khan in NA-56.
As expected, the voter turnout was high - as much as 60 per cent according to the Election Commission. While the PTI's gregarious campaign went a long way to mobilize the youth, the media also played an important part in raising the level of political awareness among the people. Without doubt, this was a media-led and media-dominated election. While all political parties invested heavily in election publicity on TV channels, the PPP's electronic media campaign broke all records. The 2013 elections will also be remembered for the fact that for the first time in the country's history, urban, educated middle and upper middle classes also fully participated in the political process the credit for which largely goes to the PTI.
The PPP has lost heavily in the polls, especially in the Punjab. It won the largest number of seats in 2008, but now it has been practically confined to Sindh and is vying with the PTI for the second or third position in the National Assembly. The biggest setback for the party is the defeat suffered by some of its leading figures, including former prime minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, two sons of former premier Yousaf Raza Gilani, former information ministers Qamar Zaman Kaira and Firdous Ashiq Awan, PPP Punjab President Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, former Public Accounts Committee chairman Nadeem Afzal Gondal, Bushra Aitzaz, wife of Aitzaz Ahsan, former federal ministers Nazar Muhammad Gondal and Tasleem Qureshi.

With its comfortable majority of seats in the Punjab, the PML-N may easily form the provincial government, but given the distribution of NA seats among various parties it seems it will have to go for a coalition government at the center. Who will it go with? The PPP, the PTI, the MQM and the ANP being out of the loop now, the PML-N will perhaps enlist the support of independent candidates, the JUI-F, JI and Baloch nationalists to form a coalition government. But other options cannot be discounted. While the PML-N will rule at the centre, Sindh will be controlled by the PPP and the MQM and KPK by the PTI. PML-N will also be faced with a strong and vociferous opposition in the National Assembly.

http://www.weeklycuttingedge.com/
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