General Musharraf's re-election
By Nasim ZehraWednesday,August 08,2007
The writer is an Islamabad-based security analyst
The next vital stage in Pakistan's political system is the presidential election. All the speculation regarding General Pervez Musharraf's re-election should now end. What he has told his party the PML-Q and the ruling coalition member party the MQM in confidence is now out in the open. Between September 15 and October 15 General Musharraf, while remaining the chief of army staff (COAS) will present himself for re-election to the Senate and to the current provincial and national assemblies. The president is confident of being re-elected. With the MQM and the PML-Q's support he hopes to poll around 56 per cent votes. He has also had no publicly stated resistance to his re-election from his main constituency, the armed forces. In fact at the last corps commanders meeting they gave him a vote of confidence.
Once the goal pf re-election has been achieved, General Musharraf's plans, as of now, include giving up the position of army chief after the general elections planned for around November. Following that, to respond to the criticism on his re-election by the current assemblies, he will plan to obtain endorsement as a civilian president by the newly-elected assemblies by early of next year.
The Musharraf-Benazir Abu Dhabi meeting has also given reason for optimism to General Musharraf. He reportedly found Benazir willing to cooperate and has indicated that her party will not cast votes against General Musharraf in the presidential election. Also once he gives up his uniform her party will endorse his presidency. This Benazir has also publicly stated in her August 5 interview given to CNN. She said once that when the issues between the parliament and the presidency are settled she can work with Musharraf. Meanwhile she has assured Musharraf that she will not return to Pakistan before the national elections. The post elections plans are that once Musharraf becomes president if PPP leads at the hustings Benazir will be prime minister.
On the broader political context that General Musharraf foresees for his election, there will be no physical presence of Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan. Also the MMA will not necessarily be unified in his opposition. The JUI, the most potent electoral force within the MMA, has already been critical of Qazi Hussain Ahmad's resignation against General Musharraf's re-election by the current assemblies. Maulana Fazlur Rehman is also holding dialogue with the government party finding appropriate quid pro quos for cooperation. Hence if the Musharraf-Benazir and the PML-Q-JUI sustainable 'understanding' is crafted then Musharraf's re-election as both military and civilian president will be indirectly and directly supported by three popular mainstream political parties: the PPP, MQM and the JUI. They see his re-election as the best way through for their own political interests and for the transition from guided democracy to genuine democracy. Obviously they seem to think, given his performance and his standing within the international context that he is a more appropriate consensus president than any other.
On the Constitutional and legal fronts General Musharraf believes his re-election in uniform cannot be questioned. The 17th Amendment allows him to hold a dual position until December 31, 2007. Musharraf's supporters believe that his plan to endorse himself as a civilian president after the elections takes care of the argument that the election by the outgoing assembly takes away the right of the new assembly to elect a president. Finally on the legal front Musharraf was reported to have said he would argue for himself in case his re-election is contested in a court. Hence given all these facts he is confident that his re-election is almost a foregone conclusion. He and his supporters believe that criticism from home or abroad cannot alter this fact.
Yet their beliefs and facts notwithstanding there is another alternative re-election picture. Criticisms abound: the political opposition believes a uniformed president must not be re-elected since it violates the principles of genuine democracy, re-election of a uniformed president means the army's continued role in politics, General Musharraf's re-election will mean no free and fair election and it also means rewarding someone who launched a coup who violated the Constitution. Also that the re-election will be a mockery of rule of law, that genuine democracy can only come with his ouster and there can be no constitutional democracy if the military is not banished from politics. Pakistan's lawyer community too supports this position. They have repeatedly declared that in case General Musharraf stands for re-election they will launch an anti-Musharraf pro-democracy movement.
Clearly from these two contesting positions will flow a highly controversial presidential election. There is the idealistic and a purist democratic position which must call for General Musharraf to remove his uniform immediately and opt for election from this assembly and endorsement from the next assembly but the fact is that from the existing political and constitutional angles the contending pro and against Musharraf positions do enjoy some political and constitutional weight. The public generally now seeks fair play. The restoration of the Chief Justice of Pakistan through a legal victory has made the public appreciate that law as the moral heavy weight must always reign supreme. The public, the politicians and all the other players and courtiers in the corridors of power now read from the same page where the script says no one individual or institution can be more powerful than the law. What the public however still needs to see demonstrated is the power and the authority of the elected parliament.
Its political concerns, its increasing support for democracy and opposition to the military in politics notwithstanding, the public generally bears a conservative political temperament. The public is not necessarily conservative in its ideology and in its voting patterns but in its stomach for radical action from which violence, chaos and bloodshed flow. Unless there is widespread politics of extreme violence and hate inspired in the name of ethnicity, nationalism or religion, the overwhelming majority of the public seeks security shying away from anarchy. The broader questions whether or not to let a coup making general go scot-free and how to bring about a political revolution that will promote the best of democratic values do therefore rarely influence public politics. The public there would prefer a non-violent non-disruptive settlement of the controversy around Musharraf's re-election.
There is no doubt that Musharraf's re-election will be contested in the Supreme Court and to some extent in the streets and led by the lawyers in the bars. To what extent the political going will remain good for General Musharraf's re-election will depend largely on how far Benazir stays the course of the decisions taken at her Abu Dhabi meeting with General Musharraf. Also in case the Supreme Court allows the return of the Sharifs, it would queer the political pitch against Musharraf.
So then what is the way forward without resorting to violence on the streets by the politicians or the law enforcement agencies? How do we move forward on the basis of law and the Constitution and not on the basis of an individual's strengths and weaknesses? How do we prevent disruption and anarchy on the one hand and imposition of emergency and martial law on the other? How do we move forward to a resolution that is neither subjective, nor based on danda power or gun power? Above all how do we arrive at a national consensus on this position?
A constitutional move to end the controversy would have been Constitutional amendments by the opposition or the proponents of General Musharraf to either rule out all Constitutional avenues available for his re-election or knock out all Constitutional provisions that can potentially block his re-election. But to take the Constitutional route neither has the numbers.
The only way forward is to let the critics of Musharraf's re-election take the case to the Supreme Court. In the Supreme Court alone rests the power to pass a ruling in-keeping with the Constitution, factoring in political morality and the specificity of our circumstances, on what is legally and constitutionally kosher for General Musharraf's re-election. Fortunately the Supreme Court also enjoys the moral authority it requires to ensure that its decision is respected and accepted.
As matters now stand there is potentially explosive controversy around the presidential election for it to go forward peacefully and credibly.
Email:
nasimzehra@hotmail.com
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=67438