01.12.2013 Time to take charge: Civil-military ties
THE new army chief will take a few weeks to settle into his new job and, if events allow, possibly longer to turn to matters of the army’s approach to national security and its positions on key foreign relations. But Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been in office for five months now. And it is time for him to step up and truly take charge. One smooth electoral transition and one round of change at the top of the military hierarchy cannot erase decades of civilian subjugation to military diktat, but the historic changeovers of 2013 can certainly be a springboard to greater civilian confidence. There are at least four areas in which Mr Sharif needs to examine and reset the state’s policies: the domestic militant threat; Balochistan; Afghanistan; and India. Each of those issues is enormously complicated in its own right, before the civil-military angle is even factored in.
On the fight against militancy domestically, Mr Sharif has repeatedly said his government would prefer to pursue the dialogue option first. Problematic as this approach is — and known to be opposed by the military high command — where Mr Sharif and his team have already failed is in giving a coherent narrative: how will dialogue proceed, what are the red lines and what is the state doing to prepare for the eventuality that dialogue either fails or the TTP goes back on any pledges it makes. Surely, lamenting the failure of dialogue because of miscellaneous challenges, including drone strikes, is no policy. The TTP threat and the government’s preferred response to it (see editorial below) exemplifies the vexing intersection of civil-military relations and sound security policy: both the army and the government appear focused on debating the merits and demerits of dialogue without ever focusing on what the wider fight against militancy must entail.
If on the TTP the government may be on the wrong track, on Afghanistan, India and Balochistan the PML-N government is on the right track — though perhaps only to the extent of words. Non-interference in Afghanistan, normalisation of ties with India and a political approach to dealing with Baloch separatists are all sound policies — if only there were some indication that the government is doing something to have its thinking on these subjects prevail over the army’s more hawkish stance. At some point, Mr Sharif will have to lead from the front. If the old, army-led security and foreign policy approach has failed — as it so clearly has — a new approach will only prevail if pushed through with conviction and clarity.
Taliban’s clear goals: TTP video recording
IT is a pity that the focus on Shahidullah Shahid’s remarks on cricket, quoted out of context by the media, has overshadowed his video message’s grimmer contents. The TTP spokesman’s 17-minute video recording spells out the Taliban’s political philosophy in clear terms and gives us the militant movement’s view of the state of Pakistan and the status in its eyes of the government and armed forces. The Taliban hold both in contempt. The recording dwells at length on the precondition for talks and their aim. There are three preconditions — the release of TTP prisoners, the pullout of security forces from the tribal areas and an end to drone strikes. Since, according to him, the government is not willing to accept two conditions, it is weak and insincere. As for the third condition, Nawaz Sharif had ‘begged’ America to stop the drone attacks. This grovelling revealed that the government and armed forces were America’s puppets. For the TTP, the preconditions were meant to gauge the government’s sincerity, and if the aim of the dialogue was other than the Sharia, then it was pointless.
Shahidullah Shahid denounced democracy, repeatedly spoke of ‘black Englishmen’ and threatened a wide variety of TTP enemies with death. But all said and done his talk showed the TTP leadership’s clarity of thinking. It knows who its enemies are, it vows revenge and is clear in its ultimate objective — the imposition of its version of Sharia. According to the TTP’s thinking, if the enforcement of Islamic law is possible through talks, so much the better; if not, then the TTP is ready to wage a ‘jihad’ which recognises no provincial or national boundaries. Does the government have the same kind of clarity in its policies, stance and public declarations? What does the government propose to achieve through talks? Can an elected, constitutional government betray its mandate and negotiate a compromise on democracy? The interview has spelled out the TTP’s stance and conditions. Will the government do the same?
A welcome move: Targeted subsidies
THE Punjab government’s decision to put cash in the hands of 1.3m ‘poorest of the poor’ families in the province from next month is highly commendable. It will spend Rs1bn every month to help the poorest segments of the population in the province. Though the paltry monthly stipend of Rs1,000 will not make much of a difference to the lives of the recipient families, the proposal shows a major shift in the thinking of the leadership of the PML-N, which has been ruling Punjab since 2008. The Shahbaz Sharif government that allegedly squandered billions of rupees in taxpayers’ money on such politically motivated projects as the sasti roti scheme during its last term seems to have realised the importance of direct, targeted cash subsidy to help the poor. Another important decision that the province has made for protecting the poor from the vagaries of prices pertains to the creation of a social protection authority to bring all existing and planned provincial cash subsidy and health insurance schemes under one umbrella.
The provincial social protection programme doesn’t have anything to do with the federal Benazir Income Support Programme launched by the previous government, but it is being modelled on Bisp and will utilise the database gathered under it. The success of any cash-grant programme in protecting the vulnerable and alleviating poverty depends largely on the level of commitment shown by the political leadership to the programme’s objectives. It means the chief minister will be required to give considerable time to make a success of the proposed programme and to create an effective infrastructure to ensure that funds allocated for disbursement are not misappropriated or their release delayed for the poor recipients. If implemented successfully, it could be an inspiration for similar programmes in other provinces as well.