Date: Saturday, October 22nd, 2016
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A robust defence
The British government in response to a petition signed by almost 20,000 people has issued a defence of Pakistan’s record in combating terrorism. ‘Pakistan has made significant sacrifices in opposing terrorism’, says the statement, and goes on to list a range of areas where the British government supports financially and via skills transfer a range of initiatives in Pakistan and has done for many years and will continue to do so. Pakistan and the UK have a relationship that stretches back to the beginning of the colonial era, and has survived the years since independence despite turbulent times. There is a large Pakistani-origin population in the UK and they are represented by MPs and local and regional councillors in all of the assemblies including the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The British High Commission in Islamabad reflects this as it is the largest overseas mission maintained by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO).
Against that background it would be wise to treat the petition that triggered the FCO statement with some caution, particularly as a mapping of where those who have signed it are located suggest high rates of signature from areas known to have significant populations of Indian origin or descent.
The acknowledgement by the UK of Pakistan’s efforts in fighting terrorism are going to be welcomed by both the military and civilian establishments, which were becoming uneasy at allegations that Pakistan supported some extremist organisations and those allegations had begun to gather weight internationally. Add this to India’s strongly-stated intention to ‘isolate’ Pakistan and it is not too difficult to work backwards and find a possible origin for the petition that has produced the denial and consequent statement of support for Pakistan. As has been pointed out in these columns several times in recent months Pakistan needs to raise its own diplomatic game, and it is for our representatives in the UK to deploy our own countervailing arguments. Pakistan is neither defenceless nor isolated and will continue to fight terrorism in all its guises and no matter what the cost, petitions notwithstanding.
A gathering storm
Politics are kinetic, never static, and the temperature of the political life of nations rises and falls all the time. Thus it is in Pakistan and the political pot is currently transiting from ‘simmer’ to ‘rolling boil’; a development that is caused by a number of factors coming into the tight end of the funnel. The catalyst for movement has been the Panama Papers, and the long-term effects of the disclosures therein are going to be profound. They are of importance because they are an undeniable truth. There has been no challenge to their veracity anywhere; they are a true record of millions of transactions over many years. They cannot be denied or wished away, raising as they do a range of questions that the family of the Prime Minister as well as the PM himself need to answer.
It is that solid factual foundation that has given motive power to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf led by Imran Khan. Having failed to get through the political firewall erected by the ruling PML-N, and anyway up against a set of national and international legislation and protocols designed to protect the privacy of those making offshore investments, the PTI is taking the battle for accountability to the streets once again with November 2 being the pivotal date. The PTI has vowed to shut down governance in Islamabad, and given its capacity to draw large crowds there is a distinct possibility that it could do so.
The Supreme Court on Thursday, October 20, came to what may be a pivotal point with the issuance of notices to ‘concerned people’ including the PM essentially saying that it would not impede the PTI from exercising its democratic right to protest, but in doing so has transferred to both the PTI and the government the responsibility to ensure that any demonstration is peaceful. In all likelihood tens of thousands of people are going to descend on the capital, presenting at the very least a substantial traffic management problem. They may be there for days or weeks and given the volatility of crowds there is a reasonable expectation that there will be confrontation between the massed ranks of protesters and the forces of law and order. It is now for the Islamabad administration to work with the PTI on drafting a set of protocols that define the rules of engagement. If the PTI is to effectively manage its supporters then it needs to have a set of rules to play by, as does the administration which has to manage the city for the local population not engaged in protest and desirous of going about their daily lives unencumbered.
Whilst the right to protest has to be protected, that right does not extend to the destabilisation of governance as a whole. As in all things with rights come responsibilities. There are mechanisms, checks and balances, with parliament and the judiciary being two of the more important, that feed into the process of accountability. Both are fully functional, though parliament has become under-used of late.
It is not difficult to see the country politically at something of a crux. How events play out in coming weeks is going to determine the future character and nature of governance. The PML-N is going to have to play a different hand if it is to win the rubber, and face up to some uncomfortable realities — specifically an inquiry that focuses on the Prime Minister and his family rather than a generic and endless process that kicks the entire controversy into the long grass. There are hard choices for the PTI as well. The dharna may be spectacular and play to populist sentiments but it is not in and of itself a change agent, at least not a change agent for the better and potentially a vehicle for destabilisation and violent destructive confrontation. Pragmatism and maturity must be the watchwords on all sides. As things stand an irresistible force and an immovable object are likely to make contact, with consequences as yet unseen.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 22nd, 2016.