Date: Thursday, October 20th, 2016.

A frisson of unease

If there is one thing that politicians the world over really do not like talking about in public and on the record it is their personal assets. What they own, how they came to own whatever it is and where the money came from to buy it. Everywhere there is some sort of democratic parliamentary system there is also a system of checks and balances, a requirement that members of legislatures sit down annually and write a declaration of their assets. They then send this work of Gothick fiction to a body tasked with overseeing their expenses and assets which duly publishes an annual report listing the gains, ill-gotten or otherwise, accrued and owned by elected members. Sometimes.



Pakistan has the Election Commission for Pakistan fulfilling this role. It has done so with varying degrees of success since March 23rd 1956, often attended by accusations of corruption and inefficiency. Equally attended by successive governments whose elected members would rather their assets and fiscal doings remained forever under wraps. News that the ECP has decided to start a random audit of the assets of lawmakers has produced a sharp intake of breath given their threadbare submissions. The ECP is to cast a critical eye over 25 per cent of a random selection — an ambitious task to say the least considering the capacity for duplicity among the far-from-snow-white members of the assemblies. A standard operating procedure is to be developed and the scrutiny is to become routine. We warmly welcome this development but have doubts as to it ever being fully realised.

For the first time the ECP is to seek verification of the statements it receives rather than accepting them at face value; and then publishing them in many cases to the widespread derision of anybody who knows the politicians making those statements. That the nation is being lied to is transparently obvious, time after time, year on year. If the ECP can squeeze something close to the truth from our reluctant electeds and their families then it will be doing us all a commendable service. We await outcomes with considerable interest.

The PIA upgrade

The PIA fleet is aging, massively overmanned by international standards and indifferently managed. Its national and international image has dropped far below that of its heyday and it loses money hand over fist, billions upon billions of rupees every year. Reports that it is to lease up to eight new aircraft in an effort to turn things around are being met with mixed reviews. The news surfaced when the airline placed advertisements in newspapers last Sunday looking for both long-and short-term leases for wide-bodied aircraft. One wonders at the necessity for this expense when the airline presumably has its own insider industry contacts that are more efficient and effective when it comes to procuring more assets. To be noted that PIA was seeking modern aircraft made since 2012 and with a capacity of more than 250 passengers. None of these aircraft appear to be available in-country.

The Nawaz Sharif government had prioritised the privatisation of PIA when it came to power in 2013, but employee power trumped government intent and a series of strikes forced it to seek other alternatives. Thus PIA soldiers on bleeding cash and badly in need of a re-boot. Customers complain about poor inflight entertainment on long-haul and outdated shabby aircraft. There are now plans to convert PIA to being a limited company with a 49 per cent stake in the local stock exchanges with the government retaining control of the business for two years. Perhaps, but it does nothing to solve the chronic problem of overmanning at every level of the operation and inducting eight new aircraft, with or without their crews, is going to do nothing to address that. The privatisation programme was linked to an IMF loan of $6.7 billion, but most of these privatisations will likely be deferred until after the next election in 2018. The eternal deferment of hard decisions weakens the country at every level. The grovelling to PIA improves nothing for anybody and leasing your way out of trouble is not a solution. Do the hard stuff.

Who watches the watchmen?

In the world of databases maintained by both private and government entities, it has become practically impossible to live without leaving any kind of digital footprint. These records are used for relatively benign purposes like targeted marketing, however, there have been too many hacks and identity thefts to ever ignore the possibility of our data being misused. In Pakistan, the largest and most comprehensive database of citizens’ personal information is maintained by NADRA. This data has been coupled with biometrically verified SIMs, ostensibly to improve criminal surveillance but also making ordinary citizens vulnerable to unwanted and continuous scrutiny.

Keeping track of individuals’ activities is not just restricted to Pakistan since law-enforcement agencies (LEAs) in other countries also watch over masses of data to trace potential threats. The right to privacy is not quite understood in our country, even in name let alone in deed and there are few safeguards put in place for protecting innocent civilians from unnecessary breaches of their personal information.

The security situation of our country has given LEAs carte blanche to do as they see fit all in the name of protecting citizens but questions must be raised regarding the measures put in place within these LEAs to ensure that data is not exploited. Mishandling of records is still a genuine concern particularly with regard to NADRA and the more these records are coupled with other information like cell phone numbers and bank accounts, the bigger these concerns become. Even though there is now supposedly a law in place to prevent cyber crime, it too concerns itself with giving authorities unrestricted access to personal information as well as allowing them to share it with foreign partners. Meanwhile, harmless activities of internet users can now be classified as criminal acts. It must be remembered that these changes have taken place largely without the knowledge or informed consent of ordinary citizens which is perhaps most alarming of all.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 20th, 2016.

Date: Friday, October 21st, 2016.

An independent judiciary

The Supreme Court on Thursday, October 20, issued a notice to the Prime Minister and other parties in respect of petitions that sought his disqualification from office by virtue of his association with the Panama Papers affair. The bench has also refused to pass an order seeking to restrain the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) from holding a rally in Islamabad on November 2. Notably, the Chief Justice made the observation that in the event of the executive failing to protect the fundamental rights of individuals and by extension the citizenry at large, then it is for the apex court to intervene and protect those rights. The bench then issued notices to all the respondents and the four petitioners and adjourned for two weeks.

With this ruling the judiciary has sent a clear signal to the executive, namely that it is independent and will make decisions that are not necessarily comfortable for the government of the day. There are reports that the PM has been discussing with his legal aides a possible strategy in the event of such a ruling, about which there is now some urgency. For the PTI and its leader, Imran Khan, there is now a legal imprimatur for its planned actions in Islamabad and the stage is set for confrontation.

The Panama Papers are an established fact, not some transient mirage that fades as quickly as it appears. The apex judiciary is signalling that there are questions to be asked and answered of and by the PM, and that accountability in all things in public and political life reaches to the top. If, as the PM has maintained throughout, he and his family have nothing to hide then let them not hide it. Thus far he has successfully stonewalled, but this latest ruling may be the spur that flushes him out. This will of course be resisted and the process may be protracted, and events on the streets will anyway play out by the day. It is unlikely in the foreseeable future that Imran Khan will see ‘looted money’ returned to the exchequer; but the green shoots of accountability are in evidence. We wish them well.

The third and last Debate

There are still 20 days until America goes to the polls; and it is a country cleft like almost never before. The choice to be made on November 8 is going to anger almost half the population whoever wins, and leave the other half if not angry then not entirely sanguine either. As the months have gone by commentators have noted that the quality of political life has been dragged ever lower, in large part by Donald Trump who now looks a distant prospect to win, but also Hilary Clinton who has emerged as in many ways as no less savoury than Trump, but differently so.

According to the office of the American Census there were, in 2015, 41.1 million Americans officially living in poverty. Many of them live in states where Donald Trump is polling strongest; and he has arguably given voice to those who see themselves as the disenfranchised, the marginalised, the ignored — left behind as the world of business and industry changed. By contrast Hillary Clinton is doing well where she is expected to do well — the wealthy liberal states both east and west. The majority of polls — there is a plethora — place her between three and nine points ahead of Donald Trump, a seemingly unbridgeable gap electorally.

The final debate of the election produced little new. It was well moderated; the candidates performed as per script but as it wound up there was a twist to the tail. Allegations of rigging have been at the top of the Trump agenda ever since he began to look like the loser. In the closing moments of the debate he refused to unequivocally say that he would accept the outcome of the election. Iconoclast to the last he is upsetting custom and practice — the peaceful transition of power — and now poses the threat of a contested result and the protracted challenges that will inevitably follow. A depressing prospect. The result of the election is going to touch everybody everywhere, but the world may be kept in suspense as per the bidding of Donald Trump as to who will eventually sit in the White House.

Safe countries for girls

Save the Children recently published a ranking of 144 countries on the Girls’ Opportunity Index, which factored several categories in order to assign rank for which countries are the best for girls to thrive in. Indicators for the rankings included: child marriage, adolescent pregnancy, maternal mortality, women in parliament, and lower-secondary school completion for girls. At the top of the list sat Sweden and Finland, respectively. At the bottom was Niger. And, nestled somewhere in between the other countries was Pakistan at spot number 88. An overarching theme in compiling these figures was to explore the level of control girls have in their lives and the opportunities to reach their full potentials, across socio-economic groups. Although Pakistan’s ranking this time is not as abhorrent as its rankings on other surveys, spot number 88 leaves much to be desired in the way of empowering women in our country through equality and equity.

Much of women’s disempowerment comes via child marriage and poor sexual and reproductive health services, both of which we are familiar with here in the motherland. Pakistan has consistently ranked low when it comes to maternal and neonatal health, especially with regard to mortality figures. In the public sphere, there have been several calls from time to time for the Government of Pakistan and the international community to awaken to the low status of women — one of the more prominent campaigns in recent times has been by Malala Yousufzai. However, this has hardly mobilised the Pakistani government into action to introduce equitable practices in the public arena to facilitate women. The suggestions for governments in the way of guarantees communicated in the report serve as fitting starting points; it recommends fair finance, equal treatment, and accountability for governments. Our government must also realise that women’s untapped talent means the country is missing out on potentially higher GDP.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 21st, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Saturday, October 22nd, 2016

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A robust defence

The British government in response to a petition signed by almost 20,000 people has issued a defence of Pakistan’s record in combating terrorism. ‘Pakistan has made significant sacrifices in opposing terrorism’, says the statement, and goes on to list a range of areas where the British government supports financially and via skills transfer a range of initiatives in Pakistan and has done for many years and will continue to do so. Pakistan and the UK have a relationship that stretches back to the beginning of the colonial era, and has survived the years since independence despite turbulent times. There is a large Pakistani-origin population in the UK and they are represented by MPs and local and regional councillors in all of the assemblies including the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The British High Commission in Islamabad reflects this as it is the largest overseas mission maintained by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO).

Against that background it would be wise to treat the petition that triggered the FCO statement with some caution, particularly as a mapping of where those who have signed it are located suggest high rates of signature from areas known to have significant populations of Indian origin or descent.

The acknowledgement by the UK of Pakistan’s efforts in fighting terrorism are going to be welcomed by both the military and civilian establishments, which were becoming uneasy at allegations that Pakistan supported some extremist organisations and those allegations had begun to gather weight internationally. Add this to India’s strongly-stated intention to ‘isolate’ Pakistan and it is not too difficult to work backwards and find a possible origin for the petition that has produced the denial and consequent statement of support for Pakistan. As has been pointed out in these columns several times in recent months Pakistan needs to raise its own diplomatic game, and it is for our representatives in the UK to deploy our own countervailing arguments. Pakistan is neither defenceless nor isolated and will continue to fight terrorism in all its guises and no matter what the cost, petitions notwithstanding.

A gathering storm

Politics are kinetic, never static, and the temperature of the political life of nations rises and falls all the time. Thus it is in Pakistan and the political pot is currently transiting from ‘simmer’ to ‘rolling boil’; a development that is caused by a number of factors coming into the tight end of the funnel. The catalyst for movement has been the Panama Papers, and the long-term effects of the disclosures therein are going to be profound. They are of importance because they are an undeniable truth. There has been no challenge to their veracity anywhere; they are a true record of millions of transactions over many years. They cannot be denied or wished away, raising as they do a range of questions that the family of the Prime Minister as well as the PM himself need to answer.

It is that solid factual foundation that has given motive power to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf led by Imran Khan. Having failed to get through the political firewall erected by the ruling PML-N, and anyway up against a set of national and international legislation and protocols designed to protect the privacy of those making offshore investments, the PTI is taking the battle for accountability to the streets once again with November 2 being the pivotal date. The PTI has vowed to shut down governance in Islamabad, and given its capacity to draw large crowds there is a distinct possibility that it could do so.

The Supreme Court on Thursday, October 20, came to what may be a pivotal point with the issuance of notices to ‘concerned people’ including the PM essentially saying that it would not impede the PTI from exercising its democratic right to protest, but in doing so has transferred to both the PTI and the government the responsibility to ensure that any demonstration is peaceful. In all likelihood tens of thousands of people are going to descend on the capital, presenting at the very least a substantial traffic management problem. They may be there for days or weeks and given the volatility of crowds there is a reasonable expectation that there will be confrontation between the massed ranks of protesters and the forces of law and order. It is now for the Islamabad administration to work with the PTI on drafting a set of protocols that define the rules of engagement. If the PTI is to effectively manage its supporters then it needs to have a set of rules to play by, as does the administration which has to manage the city for the local population not engaged in protest and desirous of going about their daily lives unencumbered.

Whilst the right to protest has to be protected, that right does not extend to the destabilisation of governance as a whole. As in all things with rights come responsibilities. There are mechanisms, checks and balances, with parliament and the judiciary being two of the more important, that feed into the process of accountability. Both are fully functional, though parliament has become under-used of late.

It is not difficult to see the country politically at something of a crux. How events play out in coming weeks is going to determine the future character and nature of governance. The PML-N is going to have to play a different hand if it is to win the rubber, and face up to some uncomfortable realities — specifically an inquiry that focuses on the Prime Minister and his family rather than a generic and endless process that kicks the entire controversy into the long grass. There are hard choices for the PTI as well. The dharna may be spectacular and play to populist sentiments but it is not in and of itself a change agent, at least not a change agent for the better and potentially a vehicle for destabilisation and violent destructive confrontation. Pragmatism and maturity must be the watchwords on all sides. As things stand an irresistible force and an immovable object are likely to make contact, with consequences as yet unseen.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 22nd, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Sunday, October 23rd, 2016

The mental illness problem

Schizophrenia, as with the majority of other forms of mental illness, has been present in mankind since early in the evolutionary cycle. It was only formally classified by Kraepelin as a distinct mental disorder in 1887 and in 1911 the Swiss psychiatrist Eugen Bleuler coined the word ‘schizophrenia’. It is an incurable condition though modern treatment regimes and medications may alleviate or moderate the symptoms. It is a common illness with a prevalence rate of 1.1 per cent of the population (source NIMH) globally. There is robust evidence of differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes between the developed and the developing world. (Naqvi, Naqvi, Murtaza and Nazir — AKU, 2010) Patients do better in the developed world. Estimates vary but there are approximately 420 psychiatrists nationally. We have been unable to find any record of any member of any judicial bench being a psychiatrist or having any experience or training in the understanding of mental illness.

Mental illness is poorly understood in Pakistan generally and the resources to treat it are thinly spread. Inevitably a percentage of people with all forms of mental illness commit crimes as do those who are not mentally ill, and they end up in the judicial system. The judicial system is no better prepared to address their illness than are the medical professions, and the judiciary as a whole are not necessarily better prepared to understand mental illness than any other member of society.

Occasionally a mental health-related topic makes headlines and the Supreme Court ruling reported on October 21, 2016 that a psychiatric disorder such as schizophrenia does not subjugate the death sentence is one such. The SC opined that rules relating to mental sickness were not ‘subjugative’ to the delay in the implementation of a death sentence such as that awarded to Imdad Ali who was sentenced in 2002 when he was convicted of murder. All subsequent appeals up the judicial system have failed since and his conviction stands, his execution potentially imminent. The wife of Imdad Ali had approached the Supreme Court pleading that her husband was not of sound mind and that the death sentence should be delayed until he gets treatment and recovers to the point at which he is competent to make his will. He is diagnosed as a paranoid schizophrenic as per medical records placed before the courts.

At issue is whether a mental illness should be a mitigating factor in the carrying out of a death sentence. Practice varies widely around the world, with developed nations tending towards a more lenient interpretation. In one respect at least the findings of the learned justices is inaccurate. “Schizophrenia is not a permanent mental disorder” — but it is. The justices acknowledged that the ‘prognosis had been improved by drugs’ and went on to say that the condition is also improved by ‘vigorous psychological and social managements, and rehabilitation.’ Their further comment reveals the fundamental flaw not only in their judgment but in the system that underpins it. The honourable justices deemed that as ‘a recoverable illness (schizophrenia) does not fall within the definition of a mental disorder as defined by the Mental Health Ordinance 2001’ it does not subjugate the death sentence. The honourable justices were therefore reliant in their judgment as to what does or does not constitute a mental illness by a definition that is itself flawed. From flawed advice flows flawed judgments.

The case is emblematic of a justice system that is flawed from top to bottom and not only in the delivery of justice to the mentally ill. In the same week a man — not mentally ill — was acquitted of a crime by the Supreme Court only for the bench to find he had been dead for two years. An imperfect understanding of mental illness is but one of the systemic faults in a justice system that requires a root and branch overhaul, perhaps as radical as ‘back to basics’ — and a mental health component to the future training of all judges.

Younus Khan: batting master class

Batting maestro Younus Khan chalked out another impressive century to once again exemplify his stature as a modern Test great and all-time Pakistan legend. Abu Dhabi’s Zayed Stadium welcomed back the Mardan born with open arms after Younus was forced to sit out the Day and Night Dubai Test due to after effects from dengue infection. The West Indian team bore the brunt of Younus’s batting pedigree as the seasoned campaigner showed that he had indeed regained full fitness besides his powers of concentration were too at their fullest and absolute best.

In an innings studded with the classical Younus drives, cuts, flicks and pulls the batsman posted the 33rd century of his illustrious Test career. Younus scored 127 runs off 205 balls striking 10 fours and one six in the process, his 175-run partnership for the fourth wicket with Misbah was a record 15th century plus stand between the two middle-order greats. For the 32nd consecutive time Younus crossed the 100-run mark without falling in the nervous 90s, becoming the only batsman in Test history to record such an incredible record even going past the indomitable batting champion, Don Bradman.

Younus has aged like fine wine and since turning 35 he has averaged a mind-blowing 60 runs per innings which clearly emphasises his commitment, fitness and longevity levels. Pakistan need the stalwart to sustain the momentum with the gruelling tours to New Zealand and Australia approaching. Australia especially in the only Test playing country where Younus’ hasn’t scored a century yet and his current form and application prowess provides him with an ideal opportunity of cashing in and piling on the runs Down Under. He doesn’t have a long road to travel but if his stellar form and fitness continues to hold then Pakistan squeeze up to two years more out of Younus in the Test whites, with his run tally now a staggering 9,583, Younus is with-in touching distance of the elusive 10,000-run mark.

Two more years can give Younus 1,500-1,800 more international runs or even help him get past the 12,000 mark, a tally of at least 40 centuries at the end of his career also looks a realistic possibility.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 23rd, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Monday, October 24th, 2016, 2016

Making equality priority

The Sindh government’s plan to initiate a project to protect temples and churches is a much-needed step, especially given the rising incidents of persecution of religious minorities in the province. The Rs400 million project will entail installing security cameras in worship places across Sindh. Places of worship have become increasingly unsafe in the province known for its plurality and diversity. According to a Sindh police report, there were five violent attacks on Hindus temples in the past 20 months. Incidents have been reported in relatively more developed parts of the province such as Hyderabad and Larkana. This persecution has continued not only with respect to places of worship, but incidents of forced conversions, bonded labour and the overall climate of discrimination continues unabated. In many ways, then, launching such a project is too little, too late. It is deeply unfortunate that in a country where religion is given such importance, the belief of others besides that of the majority is always so sidelined that both religious minorities and minority Muslim sects are unsafe in all spheres of public life. In recent years, there has been a rising but undocumented number of Hindus who have left Sindh for India and other parts of the world. Same is the case with any other minority group.

It should be appreciated that the Pakistan Peoples Party at least recognises the threats faced by minorities and intends to take some immediate steps. The correction to the problem, however, lies elsewhere. It lies in fixing the mindset that believes in the superiority of their belief and the right to kill, discriminate and oppress without any fear of accountability. It also lies in the curriculum taught to schoolchildren and the laws that do not treat all as equal. Pakistan desperately needs to resolve these problems, and not only by surveillance and security cameras but in the hearts and minds of its people. It is hoped that the Sindh government project falls through and more tangible, long-term steps are taken to protect the land of sufis and saints from prejudice and intolerance.



After closing on a high on October 20, the Pakistan Stock Exchange again plunged to lower levels before the start of the weekend. Based on the positive news coming out of various sectors of the economy such as the Sindh Pension Fund’s allocation of Rs75 billion for equity investment and the government’s proposed bailout of the textile industry, prompted across-the-board buying recently. Similarly an increase in global crude oil prices to a 15-month high and Habib Bank’s greater than expected earnings led to both the oil and financial sector also performing well. Trading volumes rose more than 50 million as the market closed at 562 million share volume as compared to 506 million on the previous day. The bench mark 100 index closed at a record high above the 41,500 level thanks to institutional buying and impressive earning figures which kept investors interested despite political uncertainties.

However, the trend did not last and the index fell by 250 points before the start of the weekend in part due to falling oil prices and also because of the political climate within the country. Investors treaded cautiously at the close of the week and big names in the index did not fare well. Analysts expect investors to remain interested due to quarterly earnings figures shall start coming out next week, however the ongoing political issues are keeping them in a careful mood. Despite these wobbles, the PSE is still outperforming other emerging markets. According to Bloomberg, the PSE has become the best performing stock market in Asia this year. It is expected that after the recent completion of the IMF’s programme for Pakistan, the government will make further efforts to boost various sectors of the economy. Infrastructural development and an overall increase in oil prices are expected to pull up the energy sector and banking, too, is likely to rally. Despite the pre-weekend losses, the news continues to be good for the PSE.

Cyberattacks, users beware

Globally, there have been more ‘hactivity’ warnings of late, either by private groups out to disturb the internet of things or countries discreetly participating in cyberattacks against nations that cry foul over the other’s policies. The most recent cyberattack, in the form of a disturbed denial of service, affected millions of users across Europe and the US, as well as users who avail proxy servers, prompting the US Department of Homeland Security to launch investigations. The Pakistani government also recently warned officials about technical threats in using certain applications, especially the game Pokemon Go, which might potentially record user data and activity. The threat of online security breaches is not nascent. The frequency of attacks has risen, especially with cloud sharing and advanced smartphones.

Cyberattacks have been so extensive that we recently discovered some British banks are not even divulging to regulators the extent to which security has been breached. In 2016, there have already been 75 such attacks. Whether hacking is used for illegal personal gains or for political warfare by countries such as North Korea and Russia, the situation is getting out of hand. Governments and cybercrime experts are rushing to implement policies that would result in taut restrictions and punishments for transgressors of cyberlaws. China’s government has already instituted harsh polices prohibiting the use of various social media and sharing platforms. The National Assembly also passed the Electronic Crimes Bill 2015 outlining fines and prison terms for breaches. When world powers are not able to ward off cyberthreats, though, one wonders how this developing country’s cybersecurity measures will fare in blocking Internet crimes and protecting citizens’ privacy, especially as it moves more government office systems and processes online, such as the new online passport renewal facility for Pakistanis abroad.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 24th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Tuesday, October 25th, 2016, 2016

Dangerous talk

As the November 2 date draws near, an air of uncertainty has begun to pervade across the political landscape. PTI Chairman Imran Khan is ramping up the tempo on a daily basis by engaging with his supporters through a whirlwind tour of key cities. He is also planning ‘warm up’ rallies ahead of the march to Islamabad in order to — as he calls it — lockdown the federal capital. But while activity within the PTI and government camps has started to generate heat, so has the almost daily verbal sparring in speeches, press conferences and TV appearances. At one such interaction with journalists, the PTI Chairman declared that if a third force intervened as a result of his protest movement, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif alone would be to blame.

This is rather unsettling. For Imran Khan to mention the possibility of a military intervention at this point means he thinks such an eventuality could come about if things go awry. Does he fear this intervention because he is not sure his ‘siege’ of Islamabad can remain peaceful? The reference to the third force becomes all the more significant in the context of how events unfolded in the dharna of 2014. The military’s presence in the Red Zone had saved the PTV headquarters, and possibly the Parliament and other key buildings, from being overrun by protestors. At one point there appeared to be a dangerous power vacuum and the situation could have easily slid towards another constitutional crisis. Thankfully better sense prevailed and the country was pulled back from the brink.

Does Imran Khan want a physical lockdown of Islamabad to lead to a constitutional lockdown of the government? At a time when a looming danger of things slipping out of control remains very real, loose talk by leaders can have unpredictable and unintended consequences. Mr Khan has a genuine right to demand the accountability of the PM and his family but he must carefully weigh the possible outcomes of his words and actions. When he repeatedly refers to the ‘Umpire’ and ‘Third Force’ this may be misconstrued as a subtle acceptance of the military intervening to resolve the confrontation between politicians. Both the PTI and the government need to avoid saying or doing anything that may take us down a path we would rather not go.

New foreign currency bill

In efforts to place tighter checks on cash flow into and out of the country, Senator Saleem Mandviwalla has proposed the Protection of Economic Reforms (Amendment) Bill 2016. Dissatisfied with the tax immunity foreign currency account (FCA) holders enjoy under the 1992 Economic Reforms Act (PERA) by the Nawaz Sharif government, he introduced the new Bill to put an end to the flight of billions of dollars that have unpaid taxes on them. The State Bank of Pakistan does not support the Senator’s proposal, despite being the entity to report the gargantuan figures that are transferred into FCAs outside of Pakistan.

PERA was suspicious with no limits on the amounts that can be transferred in and out of FCAs and no questions asked by authorities. Section 5 of the PERA further grants excusal from wealth and income taxes as well as impunity to banks from sharing account information with the government. This is a complete reversal of a system of checks and balances. For an impoverished nation where the majority of citizens earn infinitesimal salaries and can ill-afford healthcare and basic education, this is a regressive strategy. Citizens should have freedom and control over their earnings but if they are living in Pakistan and benefitting from the facilities in their home country, they have a rightful duty to give back to their nation via taxes. Apart from the effervescence of corrupt practices the original Act gives off, there is also a security concern through PERA, which would be eliminated under the new Bill. Considering that anti-state elements operate within Pakistan, one would expect the wielders of power to keep a tight check on fund sources and money moving across borders, following all money trails from start to finish. Pakistan has a history of political parties coming into power and implementing biased rules and laws to facilitate and benefit themselves. This fact needs to be owned up to so that detrimental and inane laws can be reformed to ensure they exist for the welfare of the country, not the party in power.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 25th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Wednesday, October 26th, 2016, 2016

A nation mourns again

Once again Pakistan grieves at the death and injury resulting from a terrorist attack. The target was the New Sariab Police Training College near Quetta and at the time of writing there are reportedly 61 dead and 165 injured, which is said to include the three attackers two of whom blew themselves up. There are at least three claims for the atrocity — one by a sub-franchise of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi controlled from Afghanistan, less credibly a group claiming to have TTP connections in Karachi and the Islamic State (IS).

The facts speak for themselves. The war against terrorism is far from over no matter the successes of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. The Quetta attack is an intelligence and security failure. Why was the facility not better guarded? It is in an exposed position in a part of the country known for terrorist presence and activity. These young men never stood a chance and died by the dozen. The standoff with the attackers lasted four hours and it reportedly took almost half an hour for a military response to reach the location once the attack was underway.

What is also blindingly obvious to all but the government is that the imperfect implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) formulated after the APS massacre in 2014, leaves any number of loopholes through which terrorist groups are more than happy to march their troops. The internecine warfare between government ministries and agencies as well as tardy provincial implementation of some of the grittier aspects of the NAP, has led to it being a three-wheeled cart. There are no ‘good terrorists’ or ‘bad terrorists’ and the Quetta attack is a fundamental policy failure in large part caused by the inability of the Establishment and assorted politicians to read off the same page. Or even work to the same playbook.

It is that failure at the deepest levels of governance that highlights not only the complexity of fighting a war in which the enemy is a shape-changer of surpassing skill, but equally the ambivalence with which that elusive enemy is being fought at a national level. There has been no attempt to create a countervailing narrative. The National Counterterrorism Authority (NACTA) remains largely inactive and although NACTA is no universal panacea it could at least serve as a national focus for all things counter-terrorism. Fierce resistance within the clerical community to madrassah registration or the tracing of funding channels has rendered this a largely pointless exercise. Any administration can tick the mosque-registration box, finding out how they are funded and what is taught behind their doors is another matter altogether.

The deaths of over 60 people, most of them young police recruits aged between 15 and 25 ought to produce an overwhelming response by the state, targeting known and suspected terrorist and extremist organisations and aimed clearly and unequivocally and disabling them to the point at which they are no longer able to mount complex operations, starving them of cash, taking down their bases and exposing their activities to public scrutiny. It is not enough for senior politicians and military figures to show up at the scene of the crime, offer prayers and platitudes and then fade into the background.

Within 24 hours the dead will be buried and the process of unlearning lessons and the wiping of memories will swing into gear. The families of the dead and injured know the lessons and will remember forever, the government will riffle through its box of fig leaves kept for such events and before long the next incident, the next pile of bodies, will briefly dominate the headlines. Pakistan either fights terrorism, all terrorism, or it does not. No half measures. No favourites. Possible? At best we would give that a ‘definite maybe.’ Terrorism is never going to be entirely eradicated, but it can be tackled far more comprehensively and effectively than it is currently being addressed in Pakistan. Will the Quetta outrage be a turning point? Definitely. Maybe.

Out of danger — for now

The visit of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde has come at a fortuitous time for the government of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) beset as it is on all sides domestically. The unhappy coincidence of the appalling terrorist raid on the police training school near Quetta has added to the portfolio of bad news in the government in-tray, and it is thus something of a comfort to hear warm words from the IMF – even if hedged about with some significant caveats. Pakistan has successfully completed a range of IMF supported economic reforms and begun to address a range of economic challenges as well as realise its potential, said Ms Lagarde, who additionally declared that the country’s economy ‘was out of danger.’

For a patient that in economic terms has been on life-support systems in the not far distant past this is good news indeed. Ms Lagarde was speaking at a press conference in Islambad standing beside Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on October 25. The IMF is all about the Big Picture, the macro optics, and it is indeed fair to say that there have been economic improvements in the last two years, but the gloss of the IMF approval rating hides some less comfortable news. Good as things may be they could be better, and taxation has had a specific mention as to an area where Pakistan continues to fall short – in fact 50 percent short in terms of what it could and should be counting into treasury coffers in terms of taxation.

Notwithstanding the caveats regarding the economy Ms Lagarde spared a few words for the ongoing Panama Papers imbroglio that is the source of much of the recent difficulty for the government. ‘It is a matter of transparency’ she said, thereby encapsulating that which has dogged this and virtually every other administration of many decades, transparency being an anathema to one and all. Ms Lagarde leaves Pakistan if not exactly with a rosy glow then not under a cloud either. We may need to knock on the IMF door again in the future, and the chances are we will be welcomed in rather than turned away.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 26th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Thursday, October 27th, 2016, 2016

All is not lost

Reports that Pakistan is to attend the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan to be held shortly in India are much to be welcomed. The Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs is to journey to Amritsar on 4th December to take part in discussions with ‘other stakeholders’ as to futures for Afghanistan, a matter of vital importance to Pakistan. The various attendees are agreed that whatever tensions bedevil their complex interrelationships the necessity of achieving a form of consensus regarding Afghanistan overrode their evident tensions. This is in itself a positive move forward. Riding along with the announcement of Pakistan’s attendance at the conference was an acknowledgement that a three-member Taliban delegation was in Pakistan for talks with the administration. It is perhaps unsurprising that no further detail was forthcoming, and the agenda for any meetings was not revealed.

Both developments suggest that despite the frigidity on the surface, relations between India and Pakistan have continued via the back channels and the presence of the Taliban delegation as well as the decision to attend the Heart of Asia conference are unlikely to be simple coincidence. The day-to-day business of governance and diplomacy remains functional despite threats of siege and the shutting down of government by a basket of political parties led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) that is currently hurling around a range of accusations about Indian meddling in affairs of state in Pakistan. None of them thus far are supported by empirical evidence beyond a self-admitted Indian spy and one or more pigeons none of whom are cooing on the record. Some sabre-rattling rhetoric by the Indian PM Narendra Modi has done nothing to nurture the peace process, neither the persistent violations along the Line of Control and the Working Boundary.

For its part Pakistan has displayed constructive restraint in this instance and refrained from echoing the anti-Indian blame game that would have India responsible for all our ills no matter what they are. Once again there is an opportunity for Pakistan to present itself as a moderator, a facilitator, a broker if one with patchy backstory. A player that is rightly at the Heart of Asia and yes, far from isolated.

Mixed messages again

It is difficult to reconcile the messages being given on the one hand by the Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan who is claiming post to the Quetta atrocity that ‘militants are no longer operating from Pakistan’; with that of the Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah who has said that there are 93 madrassahs in Sindh alone that have links with terrorist or banned organisations. The IM view is that any terrorist activity is generated and coordinated from outside the country (there is alleged to be evidence that the Quetta attack was run from Afghanistan). He went on to say that incidents of terror were the result of flawed security and intelligence and that agencies should cooperate more effectively. He may well be right in that respect, but his assertion that militants are no longer operating from Pakistan is a hostage to fortune he can ill afford.

It is no secret that some madrassahs have links as described above and have funding streams that are at best opaque and at worst invisible and untraceable. They have operated under the noses of provincial and federal agencies for decades and are about as secret in that respect as the recipe for chapattis. The CM has directed that the police and Rangers conduct operations against the 93 suspects forthwith because they ‘harbour terrorists.’ Not so says the IM who appears to contradict the Sindh intelligence agencies that seem very sure of their ground. It appears that around 250 madrassahs nationwide have been shut down in the wake of the National Action Plan (NAP), but these may only be a portion of those suspected by intelligence agencies of anti-state activities or having the potential thereof.

Terrorists do not spring fully-formed from the soil, they have to be grown and nurtured. Some of them are grown and nurtured within the madrassah system. We do not wish to tarnish the reputation of all madrassahs, because not all of them harbour or foster extremism — but some do. Mixed messages confuse and ill-inform an already confused and ill-informed public. We suggest a harmonisation meeting between the Sindh CM and the Interior minister at the earliest possible date.

House cleaning

It is apt that immediately following the massacre at the New Sariab Police Training College, a special meeting was held at the Chief Minister House in Karachi to discuss the lurking danger of extremism in Sindh’s madrassas, creating an impending threat of a similar scenario observed in Quetta on October 25. It has been neglected for too long the realisation that Sindh, with its uncontrollably growing population inviting residents from all over the country and region, has its own house cleaning to do. Some 93 madrassas have been placed on an intelligence watch list for links with banned outfits — which should be extirpated without delay — along with a plan to register every legal and illegal immigrant of Sindh, a much lauded step.

The measures, indeed, receive our approbation but it is no easy feat. The term ‘immigrant’ in Sindh is technically applicable to millions of people, depending on where the starting point is chosen on the timeline. A better strategy is to register all residents of Sindh in rural, urban and surrounding areas. Once records are completed to accuracy, anomalous practices by individuals should be earmarked for investigation, for example, participation in questionable seminaries and organisations. Coming to madrassas, a bold step has been taken by the leadership as questioning places of religious authority or belonging has been controversial in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Madrassas provide an easy cover for troublemakers and thus need to be vetted by intelligence and government officials. Civilians should also take ownership and report hateful and divisive speech during sermons. We have been saying for a long time that a sole entity cannot operate without taking on board other leadership in the province. Decisive and meaningful action can only be taken in unison with civil and military law enforcement and intelligence, which finally seems to be happening. Pakistan’s role in the war on terror began over a decade ago, so we would have wished to see the leadership enhance its record keeping long before the intricate and tortuous mess we are in now but alas, better late than never.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 27th, 2016.

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To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Friday, October 28th, 2016, 2016

Towards a polio-free life?

Religious scholars in three sensitive districts of Balochistan have managed to persuade parents to vaccinate their children thereby cutting down refusal rates by 80 per cent among the 60,000 families who had refused inoculation. This is good news indeed and it is hoped that all children can enjoy a polio-free life. But while the reduction in polio refusal cases is most necessary, involving religious scholars is a move that should be taken with a pinch of salt. Religion being interlinked with all spheres of public life is barely ever a positive development and can only provide short-term successes. Such initiatives also give mixed messages. While on one hand the state wants to crack down on madrassas, on the other, religious preachers are given an open space for influence.

Earlier, Maulana Samiul Haq, chief of Darul Uloom Haqqani in Akora Khattak, was given the task of countering the Taliban’s anti-vaccine campaign. This particular Darul Uloom has great influence among Taliban outfits and prior to Samiul Haq’s endorsement, he had opposed polio vaccinations on the grounds that the campaign had been used to kill Osama Bin Laden.

Furthermore, pinning down the presence of polio to mere refusals is problematic because the problem has been more of security and lack of access in certain areas. For instance, between 2012 and 2015, nearly 70 health workers were killed during a polio campaign. It is also important to remember that it was the Taliban who had banned polio campaigns in North Waziristan for over two years, which led to scores of children being left unvaccinated who contributed to a large majority of polio cases. Parents should be educated better and provided evidence that supports the need for polio vaccine.

Pakistan has made great strides in the fight against polio. Fourteen polio cases have been detected this year so far, down from 34 in 2015, and 296 in 2014, which was the darkest year for polio in Pakistan. The commitment shown by all authorities in fighting this battle needs to continue.

A commanding narrative

Wherever one looks on print, social or electronic media in Pakistan and immaterial of whatever an individual position may be politically, the narrative is currently dominated by Imran Khan and the political party he leads — Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). No other party has captured as much raw air-time or column inches in both the English-language and the Urdu press and at least one party — the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) which is co-led by Bilawal Bhutto — has been reduced to an irrelevance bleating on the sidelines. The PML-N is the party of governance, the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif but he is snared in the many entanglements that are attendant on the Panama Papers affair, and much of the current discomfort of his government is of its own making inasmuch as it was unwilling to show flexibility in terms of the terms of reference of any investigation into the aforesaid Papers.

With November 2nd, the date that the PTI is proposing to ‘shut down’ Islamabad on the near horizon, other groups are weighing throwing their hat in the ring in support of the PTI. The clerics of Lal Masjid may decide to, but the Shuhada Foundation clarified on 26th October that they support Imran Khan’s “stance but not his method”. The followers of Dr Qadri equally may decide to support PTI and the die will be cast in the coming 24 or 36 hours. If the PTI can attract either of the two aforementioned they come with their own street regiments in the many thousands. Islamabad could be ‘shut down’ by the sheer weight of numbers called out to protest. On the government side there are police being drawn from across Punjab in support of the police in the capital, around half of whom at any given time are reported to be committed to VIP protocol and security duties. There are avowals by all the protesting parties as to their commitment to peaceful protest. Honest in intent they may be, delivering that intent as a reality is far from being a certainty. Even at this late hour we hope for pragmatism, for moderation, and above all a willingness to compromise — because anything less could lead us all to a very dark place indeed.

Tapping the tourist rupee

Moves are afoot to re-energise the tourism component of the operations of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA). There is an operational congruence with the Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) which was highlighted in a meeting between the MD of PTDC and representatives of PIA on 25th October. It was revealed that PIA is to start air safaris to promote the tourism industry. The national flag carrier was also said to have restored routes it had abandoned in various parts of the country.

Any improvement not only in the range of services operated by PIA but also in the tarnished image it has acquired is welcome. The ‘safari’ routes would take in Gilgit and Skardu both of which offer some of the most breathtaking scenery in the world, and tourists may be attracted to ‘flight only’ packages, perhaps with enhanced dining options and an on-board commentary. There has been a considerable increase in tourism volume in Gilgit-Baltistan in the last two years, and PIA has found its services booked well in advance to both Skardu and Gilgit, but they are not the only places that it is interesting to fly over. It is well within the realms of possibility that attractive packages can be put together cooperatively by PIA and PTDC using a mix of transport options in the air and on the ground, lacing together a range of destinations that have hitherto been underexploited.

The tourism and leisure travel market in Pakistan is going to expand as the middle class expands, and may be persuaded to spend some of its income in-country if what is on offer is competitively priced and offers a tourist/travel experience that is as good as what may be offered travelling internationally. Such packages are going to be attractive to foreign tourists as well, some of whom are beginning to return as the security situation perceptibly improves. Air-safaris, attractively made and marketed, have the potential to be a profitable niche for PIA — a development nobody is going to complain about.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 28th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

And so it begins

With Sheikh Rashid taking a cigar from its tube at Committee Chowk in Rawalpindi and calling on the police to arrest him, and the firing of tear gas by the police in Rawalpindi seeking to enforce Section 144 — the overture to the main event on November 2nd 2016 is being played live to a national audience. On the evening of 27th October police had broken up a rally by young PTI supporters who they beat with batons, arresting 38. The gathering was peaceful until the police intervened.

For the authorities it appears that they are ready and willing to take a hard line from the outset, determined to enforce Section 144, and none too fussy about donning kid gloves to do just that. For the protesters there appears to be a determination to see through, perhaps to the bitterest of ends, the decision by Imran Khan to close down government in the capital city of Pakistan. Neither side is in a position where compromise is an option and they are all firmly painted into their respective corners. The time for negotiation and compromise may have passed although we hope not and there has to be doubt as to whether it was ever a serious option anyway.

As events play out on the streets it is already evident that there is collateral damage. On the night of Wednesday 26th October the government began impounding hundreds of containers across Punjab and centralising them in and around Islamabad and Rawalpindi in order to block access points and prevent demonstrators entering Islamabad. The majority of containers were loaded and destined for Karachi, some with perishable goods, others with export orders. This directly penalises parties that are wholly innocent of anything beyond going about their lawful business, and is in marked contrast to the situation in Sindh which has purchased 200 containers to use as barricades. There can be no justification for this lack of preparedness and it is unlikely that the transporters are going to be compensated for their losses. It is reported that the government needs 400 containers to block access routes.

In another development, the Pakistan Stock Exchange in Karachi came under heavy selling pressure because of the political difficulties surrounding the government. The benchmark KSE 100 index declined on Thursday 27th by 539.50 points to close at 39,987.31 points. This hardly constitutes a collapse of the stock market but it is an indicator that there are collateral effects that are a response to events in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. It is estimated that the events in the KSE last Thursday have wiped $3.35 billion off the stock market.

Taken together these events are not mere ‘blips’ that are transient. Large sums of money have been lost by many with no political connections whatsoever. The government handling of a situation that looks like it is only going to get worse before it gets better already points to a ham-fistedness that is a harbinger of more of the same in the very near future.

By late on Friday afternoon it also became clear that the government had decided to confine Imran Khan to the pavilion by not allowing him to leave his Bani Galla residence and join his supporters in Rawalpindi. At a press conference held there he posed a pertinent question — ‘Is this a kingdom or a democracy?’ he asked — a question that under the circumstances he has every right to ask as he is effectively under house arrest. The confrontation between the government and the PTI has now enveloped the judiciary that has made an order in favour of the PTI right to protest. Failure to comply places the government in direct conflict with the judiciary with potentially serious consequences. Even at this eleventh hour it is possible to shelve the egos and compromise, because nothing is worth bringing the system tumbling around the ears of all of us.

Diplomatic reciprocals

As is ever the case reports that the Indians are expelling a consular official based in Delhi require considerably more detail before the full facts of the case are known. It is alleged that he was engaged in ‘espionage activities’ and the Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar summoned the Pakistan high commissioner to tell him so, adding that the man had 48 hours to leave the country. He is named as Mehmood Akhtar and he was briefly detained by Indian security agencies on Wednesday 26th October. He is said to work in the visa section of the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi and at the time of his detention outside the Delhi zoo he is alleged to have been in possession of forged documents, defence related maps, deployment charts and lists of officers deployed along India’s border with Pakistan. It is alleged that Mehmood Akhtar was arrested as he met two men who he had allegedly recruited to spy for him. Within 24 hours Pakistan announced the expulsion of an Indian diplomat for activities ‘contrary to diplomatic norms.’

Both countries have a long history of reciprocal mutual expulsions and the entire incident is strongly reminiscent of the days of the Cold War between western nations and the Soviet Union, when both sides played one another off in terms of espionage.

The difference today is that the conflict between India and Pakistan is currently set to a high heat, with exchanges of fire across the Line of Control and the Working Boundary. Indian soldiers have recently allegedly died in the conflict, as have Pakistani troops and civilians in the near past. Fatalities and live firing were exceedingly rare in the Cold War, but increasingly common in the protracted hostilities currently playing out on our eastern borders. This latest diplomatic incident must not be used by India to up the ante, and Pakistan would be well advised to stick to its line of constructive restraint. Cool heads must prevail and pragmatic statesmanship be to the fore on the part of both our leaders and the diplomatic services.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 29th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)