Date: Monday, October 31st, 2016.
Nuclear neighbour
As the relationship between Pakistan and India goes from bad to worse, the threat of nuclear war is on the horizon. Both countries have been engaged in an arms race since their inception and the acquisition of nuclear weapons was seen as something of a success by both sides. However since then, every skirmish and harsh exchange raises the possibility of one side initiating an attack which would prove devastating for the entire south Asian region and have untold repercussions for the rest of the world. War between Pakistan and India is something to be avoided at all costs and this realisation hits home with every cross border firing incident or alleged involvement by any party in cross border terrorism. In view of all this, Pakistan has on October 28th, expressed its concerns about India’s growing nuclear arsenal. In a report titled “India’s Unsafeguarded Nuclear Programme”, a detailed assessment reveals that India has the capability to make between 356 and 492 nuclear bombs.
This increase in capability is attributed to the waiver granted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to India in 2008, without the requirement of having to make any significant non-proliferation commitment. In the report, the NSG has been urged to reconsider the policy of granting country specific exemptions in view of the need to maintain stability in the already conflict-ridden parts of the world. Throughout this latest worsening in the Pak-India relationship which came about as a result of India’s atrocities against the Kashmiri people, Pakistan has been attempting to de-escalate the situation by urging talks. However, the Indian establishment has whipped up war hysteria amongst the public and continued its oppressive policies in Kashmir. Meanwhile, the blame has been placed squarely on Pakistan even though not much in the way of proof has surfaced despite repeated claims. India’s attempts to blackball Pakistan in the international community and continuous talk about war is particularly dangerous considering the vast amounts of nuclear arsenal it is capable of deploying. It is hoped that the international community will take notice and the Indian government too will tone down its war rhetoric.
Powering down
The government plans to raise power-generation capacity have taken a hit in the last week. The problem is a lack of coal and money. A number of coal-based power plants having the considerable cumulative generating capacity of about 7000 MW are in trouble and likely to be shelved because of the surprising ‘unavailability’ of coal. The unavailability of money may not be so surprising, but the absence of coal in coal-based projects points to something very wrong in the planning process. The Gadani Power Park appears to be the principal victim of the shortage of coal. This 6,600 MW project is now considering ‘restructuring’ its business model because the number of projects within the Park has decreased. The Chinese, who had signed an MoU in respect of the Park are also walking away. A project in the Salt Range has informed the Prime Minister that there is not enough coal to make it commercially viable; and the Japanese who were to have financed the project are instead looking at assessing the commercial potential of coal deposits in the Harnai district.
Also in trouble are power projects in Gwadar and Port Qasim, with the Thar coal project being seen as the game changer that is going to turn around the power deficit problem in the reasonably near future. We hope that this faith is not also misplaced. These are not small projects, and in the case of projects moving as far down the line as they have without adequate funding to see them to fruition or, and this almost beggars belief, having insufficient coal to make them commercially viable. Surely it is axiomatic that if a government is to back a key project or set of projects based around coal then it has to be established that there is sufficient coal in the ground to make the time, effort and expenditure worthwhile. To find that there is not this late in the day at the very least suggests that whoever was paid to determine what the coal supplies were was incompetent or corrupt and quite possibly both. There can be no excuse for this ineptitude and dereliction. A list of heads that are to roll would be welcome reading.
ADB fund refusal
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is set to teach the Pakistani government a lesson by refusing funds for the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. The pending dam project would secure greater supply of basic necessities. Construction would generate 4,500 megawatts of hydropower electricity, eight-and-a-half million acre-feet of water storage, flood control downstream the Indus River, and it would provide temporary jobs. Owing to the high cost of the project, however, ADB President Takehiko Nakao’s concerns about corruption within the agencies of the government are valid. As a reputable funding organisation, one would want a reformed and transparent government system before doling out a sum of $14 billion for a project.
Two months ago, former head of the United Nations Development Programme Marc-Andre Franche criticised Pakistani leaders for oppressive practices. Tax avoidance, tax evasion and money laundering leave little room for accountability. The government should understand that financiers are not there to give handouts; the purpose behind financial requests must be fulfilled with periodic public reports furnished to the funding authorities. Previously, Pakistan did not face as much difficulty in receiving funding. However, resources were often squandered and little or no progress was observed in terms of improvement of quality of life for the people.
While the statement that the project would reduce dependence on fossil fuel-based power is dubious for now due to the gargantuan dearth of electricity we face and while negative environmental impact of dam construction cannot be overlooked, the dam would assuage many of Pakistan’s water and electricity shortage problems. The ADB’s recommendation to break up the project into smaller ventures is circumspect. However, it is in Pakistan’s best interest that agencies decline funding until it eliminates corruptive practices and looks within for fund sourcing. This will facilitate the country in becoming self-sufficient, which is the epitome of a developed nation.