Date: Sunday, October 30th, 2016.

Democracy this is not

Democracy is a fading concept in the Pakistan of 2016, and both of the protagonists in the standoff in Rawalpindi and Islamabad are equally guilty in conniving at its retreat. The government in preventing the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) from holding its protests thus far is in defiance of a judiciary that has upheld the right to protest; and the PTI has a confused concept of democratic process if it thinks that democracy is best expressed by shutting down all the organs of governance in a national capital. The government side may be seen to have cast the first stone with the police assault on the youth wing of the PTI on the evening of Thursday 27th October and the tear-gassing at Committee Chowk on the 28th, but it will argue that it was sorely tried by the belligerence of the PTI supporters.

The PTI senior leadership is now corralled in the Bani Gala residence of Imran Khan, and to all intents and purposes under a form of house arrest. This in itself is a denial of democratic rights and it remains to be seen if Mr Khan will be detained if he tries to attend the court hearing on 1st November regarding the Panama Papers as he has said he will. The PTI is now having to re-jig its strategy, and is urging its supporters to travel in groups to avoid arrest — thus telegraphing its intent to the authorities which will now be alert to such moves. The party seems to be trying to pre-empt the arrest of its members before the main event on 2nd November, a strategy unlikely to be successful given the government’s apparent determination to confront rather than consult. The plea by Mr Khan to the police not to follow the government direction is also unlikely to be heeded.

The situation remains highly charged with the capacity to collapse into disorder, chaos even, if it is not defused. We once again appeal to the finer instincts of the leaders of both sides to put their differences on hold and create ‘safe space’ in which dialogue and compromise may be explored because conflict is going to solve nothing.

Saqlain dons the English cap

With the globalisation of cricket leading teams are drawing up strategies that help overcome their weaknesses or the proverbial chinks in the armoury. Coaches and consultants from around the world are the greatest beneficiaries as they travel all over for coaching stunts.

England who are in the middle of a gripping Test series against minnows Bangladesh have an even a sterner test next — Five match Test tour — in India. To counter the Indian spinners as well as to help their own spinners England have once again hired Pakistan spin great Saqlain Mushtaq. Saqlain was last deployed for the Old Trafford Test against Pakistan earlier this year to help strategise against the wiles of Yasir Shah, who had bamboozled the hosts in the opening match of the series at Lord’s.

Saqlain’s consultancy helped the hosts record an impressive and overwhelming win which is the reason that he has landed another stint. The inventor of ‘Doosra’, Saqlain has had quality stints with the West Indies, New Zealand, Bangladesh and also win Pakistan spinners like Saeed Ajmal in the recent past. Saqlain’s pedigree makes him one of the most sought after Pakistan coach. His stature as an international bowler is second to none while he’s now hailed as a top teacher of the art of spin. On the other hand Saqlain’s visit should hopefully help quell to an extent the rising sporting tensions between India and Pakistan.

Ever since the Uri attack, Indian and Pakistani sportsmen have been forced to stay away from mutual contests barring the Asian Champions Trophy hockey games in Malyasia. Saqlain can be a goodwill ambassador across the border even when donning the English cap.

A lawless land

Rule of law is believed to be one of the core tenets of a civilised society. It does not solely pertain to those with the power and means to obtain justice for themselves but also to the marginalised who are pushed to the brink of society, ignored and unheard. When it comes to judging the quality of life in a country, it is quite obvious that reliance on law enforcement for protection and on courts for a fair hearing of grievances must be considered. It is based on this understanding that the World Justice Project issues its yearly Rule of Law index which is based on the survey responses of citizens in countries all around the world and their ratings of their country on various indicators. The index broadly measures 113 countries on such aspects as the absence of corruption, civil and criminal justice and access to fundamental rights. In its report released this year, the index has revealed data that while not surprising, should be a cause for concern and a call to action.

Pakistan has been ranked as the 8th most lawless country in the world in this index which has placed a statistical value on the untold human misery that has resulted for decades due to rampant corruption, sluggish court procedures, lack of legislation and improper use of force by law enforcement. For the less privileged, a category which includes the poor, the physically or mentally handicapped, religious and ethnic minorities, women and children this lawlessness has dire consequences. It is only recently that enough awareness has been built up for bills against sexual harassment and child marriages to be passed. There are many who languish in jails waiting for their day in court and an untold number who have decided to not to strive for justice because the procedure is often more arduous than the crime itself. While landmark pieces of legislation are an important step, they are not enough to overturn the culture of denying justice though for the present little more seems to be on the cards to improve this situation.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 30th, 2016.

Date: Monday, October 31st, 2016.

Nuclear neighbour

As the relationship between Pakistan and India goes from bad to worse, the threat of nuclear war is on the horizon. Both countries have been engaged in an arms race since their inception and the acquisition of nuclear weapons was seen as something of a success by both sides. However since then, every skirmish and harsh exchange raises the possibility of one side initiating an attack which would prove devastating for the entire south Asian region and have untold repercussions for the rest of the world. War between Pakistan and India is something to be avoided at all costs and this realisation hits home with every cross border firing incident or alleged involvement by any party in cross border terrorism. In view of all this, Pakistan has on October 28th, expressed its concerns about India’s growing nuclear arsenal. In a report titled “India’s Unsafeguarded Nuclear Programme”, a detailed assessment reveals that India has the capability to make between 356 and 492 nuclear bombs.



This increase in capability is attributed to the waiver granted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to India in 2008, without the requirement of having to make any significant non-proliferation commitment. In the report, the NSG has been urged to reconsider the policy of granting country specific exemptions in view of the need to maintain stability in the already conflict-ridden parts of the world. Throughout this latest worsening in the Pak-India relationship which came about as a result of India’s atrocities against the Kashmiri people, Pakistan has been attempting to de-escalate the situation by urging talks. However, the Indian establishment has whipped up war hysteria amongst the public and continued its oppressive policies in Kashmir. Meanwhile, the blame has been placed squarely on Pakistan even though not much in the way of proof has surfaced despite repeated claims. India’s attempts to blackball Pakistan in the international community and continuous talk about war is particularly dangerous considering the vast amounts of nuclear arsenal it is capable of deploying. It is hoped that the international community will take notice and the Indian government too will tone down its war rhetoric.

Powering down

The government plans to raise power-generation capacity have taken a hit in the last week. The problem is a lack of coal and money. A number of coal-based power plants having the considerable cumulative generating capacity of about 7000 MW are in trouble and likely to be shelved because of the surprising ‘unavailability’ of coal. The unavailability of money may not be so surprising, but the absence of coal in coal-based projects points to something very wrong in the planning process. The Gadani Power Park appears to be the principal victim of the shortage of coal. This 6,600 MW project is now considering ‘restructuring’ its business model because the number of projects within the Park has decreased. The Chinese, who had signed an MoU in respect of the Park are also walking away. A project in the Salt Range has informed the Prime Minister that there is not enough coal to make it commercially viable; and the Japanese who were to have financed the project are instead looking at assessing the commercial potential of coal deposits in the Harnai district.

Also in trouble are power projects in Gwadar and Port Qasim, with the Thar coal project being seen as the game changer that is going to turn around the power deficit problem in the reasonably near future. We hope that this faith is not also misplaced. These are not small projects, and in the case of projects moving as far down the line as they have without adequate funding to see them to fruition or, and this almost beggars belief, having insufficient coal to make them commercially viable. Surely it is axiomatic that if a government is to back a key project or set of projects based around coal then it has to be established that there is sufficient coal in the ground to make the time, effort and expenditure worthwhile. To find that there is not this late in the day at the very least suggests that whoever was paid to determine what the coal supplies were was incompetent or corrupt and quite possibly both. There can be no excuse for this ineptitude and dereliction. A list of heads that are to roll would be welcome reading.

ADB fund refusal

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is set to teach the Pakistani government a lesson by refusing funds for the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. The pending dam project would secure greater supply of basic necessities. Construction would generate 4,500 megawatts of hydropower electricity, eight-and-a-half million acre-feet of water storage, flood control downstream the Indus River, and it would provide temporary jobs. Owing to the high cost of the project, however, ADB President Takehiko Nakao’s concerns about corruption within the agencies of the government are valid. As a reputable funding organisation, one would want a reformed and transparent government system before doling out a sum of $14 billion for a project.

Two months ago, former head of the United Nations Development Programme Marc-Andre Franche criticised Pakistani leaders for oppressive practices. Tax avoidance, tax evasion and money laundering leave little room for accountability. The government should understand that financiers are not there to give handouts; the purpose behind financial requests must be fulfilled with periodic public reports furnished to the funding authorities. Previously, Pakistan did not face as much difficulty in receiving funding. However, resources were often squandered and little or no progress was observed in terms of improvement of quality of life for the people.

While the statement that the project would reduce dependence on fossil fuel-based power is dubious for now due to the gargantuan dearth of electricity we face and while negative environmental impact of dam construction cannot be overlooked, the dam would assuage many of Pakistan’s water and electricity shortage problems. The ADB’s recommendation to break up the project into smaller ventures is circumspect. However, it is in Pakistan’s best interest that agencies decline funding until it eliminates corruptive practices and looks within for fund sourcing. This will facilitate the country in becoming self-sufficient, which is the epitome of a developed nation.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Tuesday, November 1st , 2016

A grave situation

It would appear that pleas for reason, moderation and conciliation have fallen on deaf ears regarding the developing confrontation in Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Swabi where tear gas is in the air. An attempt by the judiciary to once again persuade both the government and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf is unlikely to be heeded. The Islamabad High Court on Monday ruled that the Imran Khan led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) had every right to protest — but at a designated location because a ‘lockdown’ violated the rights of any number of people not engaged in political protest. The PTI does not have the right to disrupt the rights of the wider citizenry, a finding that we entirely endorse. For its part the government remains obdurate and not open to complying with the judiciary either — a state of affairs that bodes ill for all concerned.

The past weekend saw heads roll in the PML-N, and it is not difficult to see this as something of a loss of face for the ruling party that was under pressure from several quarters. The heads that rolled were not bit-players but party stalwarts. The justification according to the Interior Minister was that at least one of the heads that rolled did so because of a failure to prevent a journalist from Dawn writing a story that caused ripples far and wide. Other heads may not consider themselves entirely secure either, and by late afternoon on Monday 31st October Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had appointed Maryam Aurengzeb as minister of State for Information and Broadcasting, replacing Senator Pervez Rashid.Also by late afternoon the shape of things to come was being determined as police and Frontier Constabulary personnel used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse thousands of PTI supporters who had gathered in Swabi to march on the capital, road-blocks notwithstanding.

The gravity of the crisis facing the country cannot be underestimated, and neither side in the confrontation is going to emerge with honour intact. In reality the government is unlikely to fall as a result of these sad events, but it will bear a responsibility for allowing a drama to be parlayed into a crisis to the benefit of nobody, government included.

The Chinese ubiquity

No matter where one looks in Pakistan China is engaged, and that engagement is increasing month-on-month. The latest area of acquisition by the Chinese is KES power, the conglomerate that has been providing electricity — mostly at a considerable profit — to Karachi for several years. The deal was done in Shanghai a week ago but has only just been announced and KES is to divest itself of K-Electric which is the country’s largest and only vertically integrated power utility/supplier. The deal was made between the Abraaj Group and Shanghai Electric Power (SEP) which is a state owned operation controlled by the Chinese State Power Investment Corporation. It is a deal in line with other power acquisitions by the Chinese around the world — they are to also build the next generation of nuclear power station in the UK under a deal approved by the British government on September 15th 2016.

The Abraaj group has been in the sector since 2009, when it bought the controlling stake of the Karachi utility when it was deep in crisis. Since then it has made a turnaround and the plan was to exit at the five-year point but there were regulatory difficulties as well as problems with finding a buyer. The Chinese have bought into an entity that in March this year turned a net profit of Rs22.8 billion and is in line with their expansion in Pakistan, in particular the western arm of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor that reaches northwards to Tashkurgan and beyond into Central Asia.

There are two government-appointed directors on the company board and one of them has expressed concern over the lack of transparency surrounding the deal, a concern we echo. There has been no board meeting to discuss the deal, and it is unknown whether incentives such as the subsidy on tarrif which will be of considerable interest to consumers industrial and commercial, is going to continue or not. Concerns aside, the deal is now done and the SEC is saying that it will work with Abraaj to ‘transform K-Electric into one of the best companies in Pakistan.’ Whether it is a good deal for the consumer remains to be seen.

Unethical health practitioners

A report by the health department found that there are thousands of feigning doctors — or quacks — amongst us. The report was submitted to the Sindh High Court decrying that officials have been wavering in their crackdowns against impersonating doctors as the latter have grown in number from 3,947 to 5,856 between May and October. The Court has summoned district administrations across Sindh to investigate clinics operating with unqualified health practitioners. Given the rise in popularity of the notion of checks and balances, this news is disconcerting as it indicates authorities have not been fulfilling their roles and are allowing quacks to operate. Evidently, the pull towards a system of checks and balances is mere rhetoric with an absent will to adopt the same. Nevertheless, district administrations must close fake clinics, submit first information reports against imposters, and bar the individuals from practising in the health field. A mandatory recourse in ethics training as part of their sentences would also serve the individuals and their communities well.

Any credible profession requires certain board or state-mandated qualifications or licence. It behooves individuals that the ultimate concern is for people’s wellbeing. Patients’ health can deteriorate and they are rendered helpless because patient rights remain limited. The health department should up its ante and this time, instead of forming committees, it must establish a team dedicated to monitoring private practices in their respective districts and provinces and ensuring that each functional entity is registered to practise with correct documentation submitted to the health department. The team can liaise with local authorities to seek due course of law for mimickers. This would require regular visits by a vigilance team until the quack culture is eliminated. The ubiquitous mentality in Pakistan is that it is acceptable to circumvent the law. Until impersonators and perpetrators are taken to task, respect for the law will be nonexistent.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 1st , 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Wednesday,November 2nd, 2016.

Back from the brink

In the end it was the Supreme Court that restored a modicum of sanity. The government of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf led by Imran Khan had both painted themselves into a corner. The stage was set for confrontation and preliminary moves on Monday 31st October bode ill, laced as they were with tear gas and at least two deaths linked to them if not directly attributable. The Supreme Court sat on the morning of 1st November and swiftly asked the PML-N and the PTI to submit their Terms-of-Reference (ToR’s) for the formation of a Commission in order to probe the Panama Papers leaks. In the event of the parties being unable to agree on ToR’s then the SC would do the job for them and decide the ToR’s for itself. The Commission is to have the same powers as the SC itself.

The SC adjourned until 1p.m. to allow the parties to respond which they did and the Great Lockdown of Islamabad 2016 was over before it had begun in any real sense. For both sides, the government and the PTI, the decision allowed movement from fixed positions and the inevitable confrontation that was always going to be violent.

For the PTI there was an announcement that the 2nd November was to be a day of ‘Thanksgiving’ to be celebrated at the Parade Ground and attended by ‘a million people.’ The message was delivered by Imran Khan flanked by some exceedingly glum party apparatchiks who had just had a very large serving of egg straight between the eyes. For the government the Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that ‘PML-N surrenders before the bench.’ Whether either party will accept whatever the decision of the Commission is once delivered is impossible to know and is anyway distant. For now tension is subsiding, dust settling and a faux ‘business as usual’ resumes.

For the battling parties there is now a reckoning, and both have accrued more debits than credits since the Panama Papers affair broke upon these shores. The core narrative was about corruption in high places — and specifically the movement of money to offshore parking by people who are very rich and want to find a way around their wealth being taxed by whatever country it was generated in. The Prime Minister was not named in the leaked papers, but members of his close family were and the PTI was on the case like a terrier after a fox.

The fox dodged and weaved, the terrier was frustrated at every turn and thus was born the impasse that the Supreme Court unglued on 1st November. The cause taken up by Imran Khan and the PTI was and remains impeccably worthy — the pursuit and exposure of corruption in governance and the creation of transparency. Despite not being named in the Panama Papers and it being unlikely that the PM actually did anything illegal with his money, there is a cloud of suspicion that can only be dispelled by a searching enquiry.

The cause was irreproachable, vital even, but Imran Khan was the wrong person to pursue it and his methodology and strategy deeply flawed from the outset. His chances of unseating a government with a comfortable parliamentary majority never looked good. The failure to use parliament as a vehicle to gain leverage was another poor play, as was the endlessly ratcheted-up bombast and rhetoric that stoked fires in the mind of Mr Khan but failed completely to engage any traction with the wider population. Viewed even with the shortest of hindsights the PTI lost the game to a government play that may best be characterised as ‘masterly inactivity’. The SC stepped in as both arbiter and referee, filling a cavity in governance dug by the respective parties. Whether either will take this as a learning experience is an open question, but for now an uneasy calm prevails.

A deadly profession

Today marks the third commemoration of the UN Day against impunity for the crime of targeting journalists — and if ever there was a country that has seen its journalists suffer one of the highest rates of mortality globally then Pakistan it is. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has recorded the murder of 66 journalists worldwide since the beginning of this year, and Pakistan has seen 59 journalists murdered in the line of duty since 1992, the most recent being Shehzad Ahmed of Aaj News and Mehmood Khan of Dawn News, both on August 8th and both in Quetta. This commemoration day is to draw the attention of the world to the culture of impunity that surrounds the deaths of journalists, a phenomenon not confined to this country. Governments, including the current incumbency, turn blind eyes and deaf ears when a journalist is killed, and the police generally look the other way as well.

It is no coincidence that 66 per cent of those killed were political reporters, and a further 20 per cent whose beat was human rights. Both are areas where this government would rather that anything other than favourable reviews did not appear in the daily prints and on TV as well as the burgeoning social media.

This day marks the start of a campaign by the International Federation of Journalists that is focusing on India, Pakistan, Mexico and Yemen all with lamentable, indeed shameful, records in respect of protecting journalists or prosecuting those that kill them. Pakistan is particularly egregious, and on this day a year ago a gathering of media practitioners and lawyers was told that there was no law in Pakistan that guaranteed the safety of journalists, and that the state was complicit in the creation of an enabling environment wherein media personnel, all types, could be targeted merely for doing their jobs. Globally a mere one per cent of cases involving the killing of a journalist are successfully prosecuted. On this day let us remember and commemorate those journalists that were murdered in the line of duty. They brought you the news that you read in this newspaper. And they gave their lives to do that.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 2nd, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Thursday,November 3rd, 2016

A pause for reflection

The uptake of the Panama Papers issue by the Supreme Court sitting in Islamabad has broken the political logjam and set out a roadmap for the resolution of the matter once and for all. All stakeholders, but principally the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) led by the PM Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf led by Imran Khan have agreed to abide by the guidance of the Supreme Court. It is now for the parties to submit a mutually agreed set of Terms of Reference (ToRs) for the Commission — which they have failed to agree on consistently thus far — and in the event of their failing again the SC will decide a set of ToRs. At least in principle both parties have agreed to this matrix.

Having gone to the edge it is now a time for a demonstration of political maturity by all concerned. The SC has defined the rules of engagement and there now has to be a period of searching introspection, not an activity ever high on the political agenda but vital if this crucial matter pertinent to current and future governance and its quality — or lack of it — is ever to be resolved.

At the heart of the dispute is not only the Panama Papers but the entire issue of transparency and accountability in the political realm. If Pakistan is ever to advance beyond being a juvenile democracy then it has to go through the growing pains associated with an advancing maturity. There is no doubt that the capacity for such advancement is present, but in considerable doubt is whether the will to face the challenges of change is present in equal amount. The Supreme Court in moving as it has crafted an opportunity from a clear and present threat, a space in which negotiation, moderation and creative rather than destructive politics has a chance to prosper. Now is the time for maturity and if that means a re-jig of traditional positions then so be it. The Panama Papers may prove to be truly catalytic in more ways than one. There will be political winners and losers, and the Supreme Court has emerged as the determinant of a range of futures.

US Muslim vote

The journey of this season’s political campaigns has been more analogous to a soap opera than a US presidential election. With less than a week to go, polls reflect that the competition is growing closer than just a few days ago, by about four percentage points, in wake of a relaunching of investigations into Hillary Clinton’s alleged violation of US State Department email protocols, which has Donald Trump gloating. This would impact Electoral College votes as most states have a system where the electors take into account the popular vote in their respective states. Hence, the popular vote still matters — and this time, various groups comprising the minority vote have a greater role, including the US’ one per cent Muslim population. The candidates have caused distrust with Muslims as they have drawn a thin line between freedom of speech and hate vernacular, lowering Muslim morale.

Granted, some Republican values are more attuned with Islam’s conservative values but for Muslim Americans, protection for their race and rights is the most important concern as Trump’s rhetoric talks of marginalising and expelling minority groups, targeting Muslims specifically and reversing the conventional saying of “innocent until proven guilty” into “guilty until proven innocent” — if the opportunity to prove oneself “innocent” are even granted. The Muslim vote thus leans towards the Democrats but only as an option for the lesser of the two evils. While Muslims support the likes of slain Muslim US soldier’s father, Mr Khizr Khan, who has been encouraged by the Democrats, they do not trust Clinton. Albeit, the Democratic National Party’s complaint against the FBI’s Republican director over politically motivated action just days ahead of the election seems plausible. Clinton’s rhetoric of inclusion and equal rights for all groups is influencing the Muslim vote as right now, Muslims are looking for protection; aligning deeper values with political parties and candidates is secondary.

The Gadani incident

There is never a good time or place to have a large-scale industrial accident but if there is a worst-case scenario in Pakistan it is an accident at the ship-breaking yards in Gadani. It is the second-largest ship-breaking yard in the world. The Gadani yards stretch about 10 kilometres along a stretch of coast with a hostile terrain to the rear and poor road connections to the nearest large habitation of Gadani town for which they are named. Currently they employ around 6,000 workers directly with at least the same number employed as ancillaries. Accidents are common. Ship-breaking is a dangerous job, made more so in this instance by the remoteness of the location and the poor facilities, particularly medical and emergency services.

The accident that occurred on Tuesday 1st November killed 14 people and injured 59 others. Both these figures are likely to rise and an unknown number of people are reported as ‘missing’. It was caused by an exploding gas cylinder that was powering equipment in the hulk of an oil tanker and was large enough to hurl debris two kilometres. Expressions of grief and sorrow have come from official quarters but they are largely meaningless unless they are accompanied by action in terms of raising safety standards in an industry that is reputed to be even more dangerous than mining. Regulation and inspection of safety standards is invisible if it is there at all, and images of the operations at Gadani available on the Internet show a workforce that is completely without any kind of personal safety equipment including the most basic such as a hard helmet.

Reliable reports on the latest accident support the anecdotal evidence — workers have no leather safety shoes, fire extinguishers, protective gloves or overalls and above all else no medical services based within the yards to provide immediate assistance whatever the scale of injury or accident. The Gadani yards are a commercial operation providing much needed jobs in an area that is impoverished — which does not excuse those making a profit from their responsibilities to a vulnerable, indeed exploited, workforce.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 3rd, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Friday,November 4th, 2016

Core issues unresolved

The Supreme Court broke the logjam that threatened to cause mayhem in Islamabad, but the logs thus unblocked are still very much afloat. The leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan far from dialing back and letting events take their legal course was in full voice at the ‘Thanksgiving’ event held at the Parade Ground on 2nd November. He demanded that the PM Nawaz Sharif step down in view of ‘a case being currently pending’. Mr Khan needs to be a little more careful with his words. There is no case pending against the PM and he has not yet been indicted for anything. The proposed Commission to enquire into the Panama Papers has yet to finalise ToRs — and the government has already said that it will stick to a ‘generic’ line — and once ToRs are agreed (or imposed by the SC) the Commission will go about its business. At the end of that process there may or may not be a recommendation to indict the PM, and Mr Khan needs to understand the difference between unsubstantiated allegation and criminal charges that are evidence-based.

There was also criticism of the government for blocking motorways and road, arresting PTI workers and using teargas, in which there is a grain of justification in that the crowd control techniques used by law enforcement agencies are decades behind that of many other countries, with brute force being the primary tool. That said, the government was duty bound to protect itself against the threat of a disabling and targeted influx of hundreds of thousands into the capital. Its methods may have been crude, excessive even; but they were only tools in the kitbag.

The PM is not going to step down voluntarily and legal process has now to run its course. The SC in the past has proved unwilling to be pulled into the Panama Papers affair; and in the event of a likely impasse over the ToRs it is going to be sorely tested as are the PML-N and the PTI both of which are on record and saying they will comply with the SC no matter what. Floating logs still present a considerable hazard to political shipping.

Spies and yet more spies

Even in the dark world of international espionage there are rarely seen or discussed protocols. The recognition that nation spies on nation irrespective of whether they are friend or foe is one of those; and India and Pakistan have spied on one-another since Partition. The machinery of spying is not dissimilar to that employed in the Cold War, but with the more aggressive interventions that go beyond the mere gathering of intelligence being weighted to the Indian rather than the Pakistan side. There appears to be no hard evidence in the public domain that Pakistan is actively seeking to destabilise the Indian state as a whole — but an emerging body of evidence that that is exactly what India is doing in Pakistan.

The latest in the round of mutual expulsions of Indian diplomats accused of espionage is unusual for the attached detail of their alleged activities. Eight Indian diplomats are said to have been engaged in illegal activities counter to their diplomatic status.This is indicative of a sophisticated network of agents targeting a broad swathe of activities focused on social and economic instability and a baseline weakening of the state of Pakistan. It is vital that India and Pakistan maintain diplomatic relations, and as noted above it is accepted that within the diplomatic cohort there are going to be intelligence gatherers on both sides. Gathering intelligence is one thing, seeking the destabilisation of the state quite another.

This latest set of expulsions is another indicator of the steepening slide in bilateral relations between Islamabad and New Delhi, and symptomatic of the brinkmanship being employed by Narendra Modi that is pushing both countries into a spiral of confrontation. This needs to stop before the brink becomes the void and both sides need to apply the brakes before neither is able to. It is apparent that our intelligence agencies were aware of the activities of these eight men and now judge the time to be right to expose and expel them. This is entirely right and proper and India cannot cry ‘foul’ when its agents are caught in flagrante delicto.

The Landhi train tragedy

Pakistan has an incredible history of learning nothing from completely avoidable loss of lives. The Landhi train accident is another reminder of this, and how little human lives are worth here. It does not necessarily take a train accident to remind us that though, the state of the carriages can tell that story any day.

By the time this editorial was written, at least 20 people were reported to have died and over 40 injured. Initial reports stated that railway officials gave a green signal by mistake to the train coming from behind and Zakaria Express hit Fareed Express, which was standing at rest at the Karachi station. This is at least the third accident in 12 months. In September, at least four people were killed and more than 100 injured when two trains collided near Multan. Last November, 19 people were killed in Balochistan after a train’s brakes failed and it sped down the side of a mountain. Yet, there is little thought given to improving our current state. This is completely unsurprising. After all, this is the country that has witnessed two major air crashes in recent years, yet things barely changed, if at all, to make air travel safer. This is the country where hundreds of factory workers were burnt to death, but there is not even a sustained effort to ensure that there are fire extinguishers or emergency exits, let alone a care for labour laws.

In the chaos that is Pakistan, many things seem beyond repair. It is impossible for instance, to change people’s civic sense overnight or go from times of conflict to peace, but there are, surely, various things that can be changed. Government after government has been pleaded to improve the over 150-year-old train system, but it slowly keeps chugging into decay. This is the same system that just across the border in India, is a lifeline for its citizens.

If only time was spent building institutions and infrastructure instead of wasting it on ideological absurdities and power tussles, Pakistan, like its railway system, would not be a country eroding itself.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 4th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Saturday,November 5th, 2016

Decaying diplomacy

Reports as to the possibility of Pakistan and India temporarily recalling their High Commissioners have to be viewed with grave concern. Under the circumstances, with diplomatic expulsions triggered by allegations of spying on both sides these reports are perhaps not surprising. Accompanying the reported withdrawal there are further reports that there may be a ‘scaling down’ of the diplomatic cohort posted by both sides which further darkens the diplomatic skies. If both these eventualities come to pass then bilateral relations will have reached their lowest point, lower even than the ‘new low’ experienced in recent weeks. Any nascent peace process that might still have been flickering in the background has to be regarded as ‘on ice’ likewise any moves to enhance trade or other more cultural exchanges. All of these may and we hope will be resuscitated in the future, but there is a sense that square one is again being visited.

With formal diplomatic relations reaching a nadir the means to resolve any issues that might arise — firing along the Line of Control and the Working Boundary for instance — are themselves degraded. With tempers running high, particularly on the Indian side as Mr Modi plays the domestic audience nationally much as he played his local audience when he was the governor of a single state, the chances of a misstep or a misspeak too far are considerably elevated. The dangers in that event cannot be underestimated. What begins as an artillery duel with relatively low casualties either side always has the capacity to become a wider conflict. Both sides in the weeks since the Kashmir crisis again came to the boil have reportedly moved significant amounts of troops and armour into border areas. They are not there as decoration pieces.

As ever we call for restraint on all sides but particularly on the part of India that does appear to be the architect, for whatever reason, of the current and dangerous escalation of tension. There is a telling silence from the international community as well, preoccupied as it is with an American election and floods of refugees that nobody wants. Apply the brakes and do it now — before it is discovered that the brakes themselves are disabled.

Inwards investment

There is a discernible rise in inwards investment. International organisations and companies are willing to make a stake in Pakistan. French car-maker Renault are the latest such to announce that they are to start assembling cars in Pakistan by 2018. This was announced by the Board of Investment (BOI) and at least in part is down to some determined lobbying in France by finance minister Ishaq Dar and the chairman of the BOI itself. Renault are to invest around $100 million in the expansion of capacity at the Ghandara plant and the knock-on effects are going to be significant.

The government has wanted to break the monopoly — some might say stranglehold — which Japanese brands have on the Pakistan car market. The model that Renault are to introduce is the Duster, a compact SUV that will be priced at around Rs2.5 million or cheaper than Japanese 1500cc vehicles, and a cheaper still 1200cc model will be introduced. Toyota, Suzuki and Honda all assemble vehicles locally but at prices that the Duster is going to undercut, as well as exceed the Japanese vehicles in terms of quality of build and specification.

It is a pleasant change to report that a government initiative, namely the offering of attractive incentives and concessions to foreign investors, has paid off. Government representatives promoting Pakistan abroad can rightly point to an improvement in the security environment in the last two or three years, a stock market that is one of the best performing in the region and a widening arterial infrastructure that is going to feed into easier and cheaper distribution of imported products. If Renault are confident to put significant amounts of money into Pakistan then that is going to ease the anxieties of other inwards investors — Paramount Fine Foods of Canada have also announced their entry into Pakistan in the last week albeit on a smaller scale but another confidence indicator — then a cautious optimism is justified. Persistence has paid off with Renault and we hope for similar results for the future.

A welcome development

The violent acts against women in Pakistan are often nothing short of horrific. Amongst crimes which get reported regularly are acid attacks, burning, maiming, beatings and murder. Yet by their very prevalence these crimes have become accepted parts of society. The lack of legislation and implementation of said legislation to punish these atrocities have also contributed to this situation in which women do not have the means or inclination to seek justice. When they do attempt it, they are thwarted by law enforcement which seems more inclined to hound the victim rather than to catch the criminals. This is why Pakistan is amongst the most dangerous places in the world for women. But it appears that the wind of change is finally blowing, albeit slowly. After the enactment of the Women’s Protection Bill 2016, which caused much consternation in more conservative and inflammatory sections of society, a women’s crises center has been set up in Multan as part of its implementation plan.

The centre which according to authorities will be up and running by the end of the month will have an all female staff and will provide such services as first aid, medical examination, facilitation in obtaining legal counsel and post rehabilitation for victims of violence. This is a heartening development and it is hoped that the services provided at the center will encourage more women to seek help to perhaps finally put a stop to the epidemic of violence. Every year thousands of cases of various forms of crimes against women are reported in Punjab alone and there is a dire need for such crises centres to be established in other cities as well. Only time will tell what impact this will have on well-being of women in south Punjab but this is positive step in the right direction, one which was long overdue. Other provinces should follow Punjab’s lead in this matter. There is after all no time like the present to start paying attention to half the population of this country, whose needs and basic human rights have been ignored for far too long already.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 5th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Sunday,November 6th, 2016

Ongoing effects of Kashmir issue

After the dead have been buried and bullet holes plastered over, those left behind in a region ravaged by war are left to start their lives anew. The after effects of wars are seen not just in razed buildings and graveyards but also in adults whose livelihoods were taken from them and the children who never went to school. For the Kashmiri people, where conflict rears its ugly head every few years, this is a never ending cycle in which successive generations have all seen turbulent times punctuated by mortar fire which leaves them scurrying for cover. The current iteration of this conflict has on November 2nd, resulted in the closure of hundreds of schools in Indian Occupied Kashmir due to shelling allegedly by Indian and Pakistani troops that has resulted in 14 deaths in two days. On the Pakistani side, 25 schools have had to be closed due to cross LoC firing.

The discussions about what caused this conflict are long but its human cost is only trotted out in the form of statistics to bolster arguments. When governments take the decision to launch armed attacks, they ostensibly do so to protect the people but for the Kashmiris, these promises have not amounted to much. In Indian Occupied Kashmir human rights abuses have been carried out by the military which has targeted protesting civilians by firing metallic pellets that have caused debilitating injuries. This, added to the curfew and now closure of schools should be enough of a prompt to lay aside the jingoistic rhetoric and approach the matter with an intent to promote peace in the region. In an already affected region where normalcy can quickly devolve, the withdrawal of educational facilities leaves the Kashmiri children not only with a difficult present but a bleak future as well. The Indian government’s continued efforts to justify its actions against Kashmiri civilians while keeping them under threat of military attack is highly deplorable. This clash of egos gives the people of both countries something to talk about on social media but it is wrecking havoc on the lives of Kashmiri children.

Political geography

The Panama Papers, released on April 3rd 2016, are having and will continue to have a profound and lasting effect on the politics of Pakistan. Their impact has rippled far and wide and as the air clears after the failed attempt by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to ‘lock down’ Islamabad in protest at the prime minister’s unwillingness to provide what the PTI sees as ‘accountability’; it is ever clearer that the plate tectonics of political geography are shifting.

The inescapable reality is that the Panama Papers are inescapable. They are a true and factual record of transactions some of them going back almost 50 years and to date there have been no sustainable challenges to their probity and herein lies the greatest difficulty for the prime minister who, though not named directly, is surrounded by a miasma of suspicion and doubt that can only be dispersed by the most searching of enquiries. The first attempt to cobble together an enquiry foundered on the rocks of the Terms of Reference (ToRs) with neither side able to agree which led to the impasse broken this week by the Supreme Court — an impasse likely to be replicated as neither side is likely to move from their entrenched positions. In all likelihood it will be the Supreme Court that determines the rules of engagement.

As legal process continues so does politics and the government is finding itself on increasingly unsteady ground. It may hold a parliamentary majority but when parliament is all but abandoned and replaced by street-corner activism and rallies that majority looks vulnerable. Entering the fray now is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), hitherto something of a bit player. The PPP has proposed another set of ToRs and is saying that it will not allow the judicial commission to work if it’s ToRs are not considered as well as those of the PTI. All sides at least superficially are in favour of an inquiry so long as it is conducted according to the rules they set out and to the exclusion of all others. Not an environment in which any enquiry is going to prosper. If, and this is possible, the enquiry was disabled then the PPP could say that since the government is unable to function an election must be called. The co-chairman of the PPP Bilawal Bhutto Zardari went on to say that for the last three years the country has been run by ‘an incapable prime minister’.

With the PTI licking its wounds and in some disarray, the latest difficulty being suggestions that the PTI was ‘abandoned’ by middle-ranking office holders in Punjab when the call to arms was issued, then the PPP may be seeking to occupy at least a corner of the moral high ground. The PPP co-leader has been regarded as a lightweight in the political ring and he lacks maturity, but if those also in the ring are losing heft and traction then he gets the windfall and begins to look larger than the sum of his parts.

The recent comment from Mr Bhutto to the effect that the PM by his obduracy and unwillingness to compromise has divided the country is in part but not wholly true. The country has been divided since Independence, democratic process has been refined to a form of elective feudalism and it is only recently that the status quo has in any way been challenged, and that by the PTI. Unfortunately the PTI has in national terms become a single-issue party. It is slipping in its power-base of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and is not a significant challenge elsewhere but even so and despite its flawed leader it has sparked awareness of mainstream political failure in a previously largely inert younger generation. The politicians have failed again, been rescued by the judiciary which should not have to bear this additional burden, and the least we can expect from the politicians is that they accept the findings of the upcoming Commission.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 6th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Monday,November 7th, 2016

Reviving the railways

At Independence Pakistan inherited what for the times was a state-of-the art railway system. Pakistan railways is one of the largest institutions in the country and a vital source of passenger and goods movement — and it is crumbling. To be sure there are recent positive developments in business-class travel that are welcome and driven by the private sector — but the nuts-and-bolts of essential infrastructure, the bridges, roads and rails and switching systems are in many instances unchanged from what they were in 1947. And failing. Now the Lahore Chamber of Commerce (LCC) has delivered (yet another) wake-up call. Accidents are a regular feature of railway life — and death. The latest in Karachi on Thursday 3rd November in which 22 died and 65 were injured. Smaller incidents barely make the headlines.

The LCC is suggesting that a think tank be formed to define a roadmap for rightsizing of the railways and integrating public and private initiatives. There is going to be some improvement as the works associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor gradually come on stream, but there needs to be an integrated and holistic plan for the entire national railway network. The Chinese are to underwrite the upgrading of the Peshawar–Karachi line to the tune of a $5.5 billion concessionary loan but this is a single line out of a vast network none of which is going to attract Chinese interest.

Whilst we welcome the call for the development of a think tank it is after all only a think tank, and past experience when it comes to calls for joined-up thinking to address a national issue is that good ideas are invariably seen to fall on stony ground. As with PIA the railways are burdened with a chronic problem of overmanning. Underinvestment has meant a debilitating reliance on old technologies and equipment. The railway system as a whole needs a radical restructuring that is a mix of public and private initiatives and the political will to cut out the dead wood. But with roads and metro systems the flavour of the month the railways look set to remain the Cinderella of our transport infrastructure.

Breathing toxins

Genes belonging to the South Asian and Pakistani races have been faced with unkind conditions for ages. Combine the inter-marriages with rising pollution, and we have an imminent human health disaster. We speak specifically about the smog that envelopes the city of Lahore every December giving rise to poor visibility and subsequently, risky driving conditions. It is, however, the vehicles on the road, in addition to industrial pollution, that are causing this man-made fog and creating treacherous conditions for human and other life forms. Lahore is one of the top 10 cities in the world for heavy smog, according to Deutsche Welle and Karachi has previously made it into the top 10 cities with a high concentration of 2.5 micron particulate matter, which is a direct measure of atmospheric air quality. This situation demands a revision of Pakistan’s environmental policies, for which all provinces need to provide support.

The effects of our inhospitable environment are present around us. For measure, one might visit the neonatal ward of a government hospital or drive through a congested part of Karachi and observe the beggars that pound on car windows when stopped at a traffic light. Birth defects can be observed. Lenient policies have permitted inefficient vehicles to be imported to Pakistan. Mechanics continue using all means to repair cars that should have been retired decades ago. While smart consumers of the world look to purchasing Tesla models and hybrid vehicles, we continue to ignore the emissions from our vehicles that will impact our own future generations and the agriculture we consume. Although Punjab blames some of its smog on India’s industrial set-up sending pollution its way, it must first control the factors it can. A regional coalition against air pollution will be required, however, as both India and Pakistan have large industrial sectors. Otherwise, in addition to masks, Pakistani cities may soon, too, be needing canisters of air as currently sold in Beijing.

Trouble-ridden gender gap

A strong measure of Pakistan’s regression over the last decade or so, despite the advent of some, though limited, infrastructure development, is the World Economic Forum’s recently released Global Gender Gap Report 2016 in which Pakistan ranks second to last. Sprinkle on this the daily recurrent stories of injustice against women and we see the country is not moving forward with regards to equity and equality for women. Trouble-ridden Yemen ranks last at 144, while war-torn Syria ranks one spot higher. Adding insult to injury, Pakistan’s ranking in this report has consistently become worse, and now, we have hit rock bottom.

Despite the supposedly respectful treatment women are afforded in public, such as separate lines and priority service at public offices, statistics such as these elucidate that women are not empowered in Pakistan. Reflecting on the four pillars in the report, Pakistan fell three spots in the rankings on political empowerment to 87. Even if a woman attempts to climb the career ladder, she is greeted with words of discouragement and harassment.

However, the gender gap in this country is not only to be blamed on lawmakers and enforcers. It is a mentality that paralyses women. It is the same mentality that stops a mother from allowing her daughter to pursue education abroad, or stops adults from supporting their daughter-in-law’s higher education, only to say that once a woman is married, her educational ambitions must be killed. There is a great opportunity for all stakeholders to push parents towards granting the same rights to their daughters as they do to their sons. Let them consider the finding that women engagement in economics and other areas of public life is correlated with a higher GDP as well as the body of research that says children with working mothers are more likely to attain employment and earn higher salaries.


Published in The Express Tribune, November 7th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)

Date: Tuesday,November 8th, 2016

Crackdown on sectarianism

Sectarianism in Pakistan reared its ugly head decades before the scourge of modern-day terrorism came into existence. In many ways, it can be said to be a precursor to the incessant violence that has taken hold of the country. It is understood that certain religious seminaries are in the practice of aligning themselves with banned militant groups which carry out acts of terror both against particular sects or minorities as well as the population at large. However, despite the promises made in the National Action Plan to regulate the seminaries and their teachings, these institutions largely act independently secure in the knowledge that the government will not take action against them. But this has now changed, at least in Sindh where on November 6th, a crackdown was launched against 93 seminaries accused of supporting and fuelling sectarian militancy. According to government sources, the operation was launched following a large-scale intelligence gathering operation and a high-level security meeting during which a report was presented on the links of these 93 seminaries with banned militant outfits.

The government intends to arrest around 1,400 suspects and 3,000 known criminals in connection with various incidents of sectarian violence in Karachi over the past several weeks in which dozens have been injured and several killed. The operation has led to large-scale protests for the release of arrested seminary officials. It remains to be seen whether the government will hold fast to its resolve of bringing peace to Karachi or if it will cave in to the pressure and not take any further steps to curb the sectarian violence for which it has termed seminaries as being the ‘nurseries’. In the past, such efforts have been met with staunch resistance from religious communities and successive governments have had to give up their efforts for fear of escalating the situation. With strong backing both from a devout public and from religious political parties, seminaries enjoy a privileged position. The Sindh government has undertaken a daunting task whose success or failure could serve as a blueprint for similar endeavours in other parts of the country.

Election day

Today, 8th November 2016, will be the day when America elects a new President, choosing between two candidates that are probably the most unpopular at an individual level that there has ever been in the history of presidential elections. As campaigning closed Hillary Clinton held about a 1 point lead over Donald Trump. The campaign itself has been fought more between personalities than on the basis of any policies beyond some very broad-brush statements from both, some of which — Mr Trump’s Mexican Wall — were divisive. It has been vitriolic in the extreme, with Mr Trump in particular accusing Mrs Clinton of lying (probably true) and rigging the election results (probably not true). There appears to be agreement between commentators that both candidates are flawed in a number of ways and that neither is considered ‘ideal’ nor even fit for the job.

As to what a result either way might mean for Pakistan — a Clinton win will in the early days at least be Obama-lite, and as far as Pakistan and the region is concerned little or no change. The ‘Pivot to the Pacific’ will continue with the possibility of a reboot of Pakistan-American relations a year in. In the event of a win by Mr Trump it is likely that uncharted territory will be entered, if only for his clear and oft-articulated antipathy to the Muslim world in general. He would come to the Presidency with a hardwired antipathy to Muslims, and nuanced dialogue is not his forte. It is to be hoped that the checks and balances built into the American system may curb his potential excesses.

America today is a bitterly divided nation. Deep and hidden wounds have been exposed, and new wounds created during the campaign. Mr Trump has given voice to a section of society that has in many ways been left behind — they will not be easily silenced. Mrs Clinton offers a safe — but soiled — pair of hands. Either could conceivably win and neither will be a President that America endorses, possibly even tolerates, and it is four years before there is a chance to choose an alternative.

Declining property prices

Real estate markets around the world are experiencing a common trend of price inflation due to investment by foreign buyers: businesses and individuals who use properties abroad to park their income. As a result, prices may go up to such an extent that buying homes becomes nearly impossible for the local middle class. A similar situation has arisen in Pakistan where property prices, particularly in big cities went up at a breakneck pace within the first half of this year. However, after the government revised its tax laws in a bid to deter parking of black money in real estate and also to increase tax collection, the property bubble appears to have sagged. As per reports of real estate market watchers, prices have gone down across the board in the third quarter of 2016. Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad have all seen drops in prices of plots in highly sought after areas as well as more modest locations. It has also been reported that the decline has led to closure of several hundred real estate agencies, many of whom relied on speculative investors to drive up their business.

Although the promotion of investment both local and foreign is one of the key requirements of economic growth, unregulated speculative buying must be curbed. Several developed countries are already looking for ways to resolve an unprecedented housing crisis particularly for younger buyers who are unable to afford to buy their own homes. If our government has managed to drive out speculative buying with a change in its tax regime then this is a laudable move although its short term effects may be negative for certain parties. Tax avoidance tactics are common in our country and even though individuals may benefit from tax subsidies for certain sectors, the country as a whole must suffer. The real estate market must be given time to reach a new equilibrium since the drop in prices was an expected side effect of the new tax regime. As yet, it is too early to predict whether the policy will have any long-term negative consequences.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 8th, 2016.

__________________
To succeed,look at things not as they are,but as they can be.:)