Research Reports for Current Affairs

rose_pak · #1 Monday, June 25, 2012

SIACHEN GLACIER: GETTING PAST THE DEADLOCK

AARISH U. KHAN

Introduction

On April 7, 2012, an avalanche struck Gayari in the eastern part of Ganche district of Gilgit-Baltistan burying a whole battalion headquarters of the
6 Northern Light Infantry (NLI) and 138 persons — mostly military — under a several metres thick cover of snow spread across more than 1,000 metres.
Such was the magnitude of the disaster and the inhospitability of the terrain that the rescuers have not been able to unearth a single body after weeks of
intense efforts, let alone making any rescue. The unit, 6 NLI, is one of the three battalions of the Pakistan army manning the Line of Actual Contact or the
Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) along the Siachen Glacier conflict zone in the northern-most un-demarcated part of the Line of Control (LoC).**
The area is a conflict zone since 1984, when the Indian army occupied it, and Pakistani army had to react to the aggression and scramble to hold
positions across the Saltoro ridgeline to halt the Indians’ advance.

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rose_pak · #2 Monday, June 25, 2012

EMERGING CHALLENGES TO INDUS WATERS TREATY

Issues of compliance & transboundary impacts of
Indian hydroprojects on the Western River

DR. SHAHEEN AKHTAR

Introduction

Water is becoming an existential issue for Pakistan. The country is facing a grim situation regarding its fast depleting fresh water resources. For Pakistan,
primarily an agrarian country, water becomes the most important of all the natural resources to be secured and managed. Being a single-basin country
Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus basin water to meet its domestic, agricultural and industrial needs. The growing population and rising temperature is
adding pressure on the growing water demands. Water emerged as a major fault line between Pakistan and India as the partition of British India in 1947
divided the Indus basin system. India emerged as an upper riparian with control over the canal head works that supplied water to vast lands which
became part of Pakistan, now a lower riparian. After protracted negotiations, mediated by the World Bank, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters
Treaty (IWT) in 1960that divided the rivers of the Indus basin system between the two countries. India gained full control over the three Eastern rivers
— the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej — while Pakistan was given exclusive rights on the western rivers, i.e. the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab.
The Treaty is often cited as a model settling water sharing conflict in an international river basin. It has survived...

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rose_pak · #3 Thursday, June 28, 2012

Washington and the New Silk Road: a new
great game in Asia?
Najam Rafique & Fahd Humayun

*
Is Hillary Clinton‟s ambitious multilateral proposal workable, or does
the rhetoric simply suggest just a new “Great Game” in Asia following
the impending 2014 drawdown in Afghanistan?

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rose_pak · #4 Thursday, July 05, 2012

Pakistan’s Relations with India: Beyond Kashmir?

Asia Report N°2243 May 2012
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In March 2011, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government resumed the composite dialogue with India, with the rapid pace of its economic liberalisation program demonstrating political will to normalise bilateral relations. The November 2011 decision to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India by the end of 2012 is not merely an economic concession but also a significant political gesture. Departing from Pakistan’s traditional position, the democratic government no longer insists on linking normalisation of relations with resolution of the Kashmir dispute. India no longer insists on making such normalisation conditional on demonstrable Pakistani efforts to rein in India-oriented jihadi groups, particularly the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT), responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks and hence suspension of the composite dialogue. The two countries need to build on what they have achieved, notably in promising economic areas, to overcome still serious suspicion among hardliners in their security elites and sustain a process that is the best chance they have had for bilateral peace and regional stability.

Within Pakistan, the normalisation process enjoys broad political support, including from the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz, PML-N), the largest opposition party. Viewing liberalised trade with India as in Pakistan’s economic interest, the PML-N also believes that broader economic ties would provide a more conducive environment to address longstanding disputes like Kashmir.

Liberalised trade, stronger commercial links and deeper bilateral economic investment would strengthen moderate forces in Pakistan’s government, political parties, business community and civil society. Yet, an effective integration of the two economies would only be possible if Pakistani and Indian traders, business representatives and average citizens could travel more freely across borders. For this, the stringent visa regime must be relaxed, including by significantly reducing processing times, granting multiple-entry visas, eliminating police reporting requirements and removing limits on cities authorised and the obligation for entry and exit from the same point.

However, Pakistan’s ability to broaden engagement with India and move beyond Kashmir depends on a sustained democratic transition, with elected leaders gaining control over foreign and security policy from the military. Pakistan must also counter anti-India oriented, military-backed extremist groups. These include the LeT – banned after the 2011 attacks on the Indian parliament but re-emerging as the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JD) – as well as the Jaish-e-Mo*hammad and similarly aligned outfits. A powerful military, deeply hostile towards India, still supports such groups and backs the Pakistan Defence Council (PDC, Defa-e-Pakistan Council), a new alliance of jihadi outfits and radical Islamic and other parties aligned with the military that seeks to derail the dialogue process.

Within India, with suspicions of Pakistani intentions still high, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has limited political support for talks that do not prioritise the terrorist threat. Another Mumbai-style attack by a Pakistan-based jihadi group would make such a dialogue untenable. It could also provoke a military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Meanwhile New Delhi’s heavy-handed suppression of dissent and large military footprint in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) alienates Kashmiris, undermines Pakistani constituencies for peace and emboldens jihadi groups and hardliners in the military and civil bureaucracies.

There are numerous other impediments. Water disputes, for example, could place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, which has successfully regulated the distribution of a precious resource between the two countries for over five decades, under greater strain. India, with its larger population and mushrooming energy requirements, uses much more of the shared waters, and its domestic needs are rising, while Pakistan depends increasingly on them for its agriculture. With India constructing several dams in the Indus River Basin, the Pakistani military and jihadi groups now identify water disputes as a core issue, along with Kashmir, that must be resolved if relations are to be normalised.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To build on the momentum of, and demonstrate commitment to, the dialogue process

To the Government of Pakistan:

1. Implement its pledge to grant MFN status to India by the end of 2012.

2. Punish those involved in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, communicating any challenges to trials of the accused or related legal processes, including military interference, to Indian counterparts.

3. Act against banned groups that operate freely and against any groups and individuals calling for jihad against India, invoking laws against incitement to violence.

4. Take action against all militant groups, including India- and Afghanistan-oriented jihadi outfits.

To the Government of India:

5. Respond to the above steps by:

a) acknowledging that non-tarrif barriers (NTBs) are a legitimate Pakistani grievance and ensuring that Pakistani exporters have unimpeded access to the Indian market under the MFN regime; and

b) repealing the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and other draconian laws, replacing a military-led counter-insurgency approach in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) with accountable policing and holding a meaningful dialogue with all Kashmiri groups.

To the Governments of Pakistan and India:

6. Grant each other overland transit rights.

7. Relax visa regimes significantly.

8. Focus on short, medium and long-term measures to optimise the use of water resources, going beyond project-related disputes that the IWT can already address.

9. Prioritise cooperation on joint energy-related ventures, such as petroleum product pipelines from India to Pakistan, and assess the feasibility of a bilateral, and at a later stage regional, energy grid.

10. Ensure Kashmiri participation in the dialogue process.

Read full report.

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