Pakistan is expected to lead increases in global rice exports in 2010. A report entitled, “Rice Market Monitor” published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, has predicted that exports of rice from Pakistan will rise to 3.8 million tons this year, as compared to just 2.8 million tons in 2008.
The FAO report has also forecast Pakistan’s paddy production for 2010 to be about 10.2 million tons, which is 100,000 tons higher than 10.1 million tons of paddy cultivated in 2009.
Higher production has been attributed to “greater availability and use of fertilizers, hybrid seeds, and favorable prices for an active pace of exports” by the United Nations subsidiary.
According to the report, global rice trade forecast has been downgraded by 900,000 tons from earlier estimates to 30.4 million tons. The decrease has been largely attributed to “weak pace of imports”, in particular from Asian countries.
Despite the downgraded forecast, rice exports are expected to increase by 3.8 per cent, or 1.1 million tons globally over last year to 30.4 million tons. Paddy production forecast for the 2010 season has been set at 704.4 million tons.
The FAO report cited that the “expansion in globally traded volumes in 2010 is forecast to be met by increased exports from Pakistan, which looks set to ship record levels (of rice)”.
The report predicted that Pakistan is the only rice exporting nation that will increase its exports in this season. All other major rice exporters, including India, Egypt, Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia will be impeded by a reduction in international demand for rice.
After processing, Pakistan’s total rice production touched 6.2 million tons in the harvest season of 2009 and is expected to reach 6.8 million tons in 2010.
The Food and Agriculture Organization has highlighted that “competitive prices and large inventories boosted by two consecutive good harvests have already enabled the country to ship 1.8 million tons by May”.
The report further stated that in order to satisfy growth in international demand for Pakistani rice, the country will have to “cut its reserves (of rice) by 19 per cent to 1.0 million tons”. However prices of rice have increased in the domestic market, despite higher production. Analysts have attributed this increase to rise in the cost of cultivation as well as strong local demand for high qualities of rice such as basmati rice.
Conversely, export growth has been dominated by lower qualities such as 25 per cent broken rice. Rice exporters have also expressed confidence that Pakistan will achieve record rice exports in 2010.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 16th, 2010.