Pakistan's role in the endgame of Afghanistan?

[azeegum]

AssalamOAllaikum all!

As we know friends, America, after the complete withdrawal from war in Afghanistan by 2014, wants to utilize India there as a proxy, serving its so-called clandestine goals. The US, through Bonn Conference and Istanbul Conference etc, has tried to create a situation like the same also when she wishes to see India exercise a dominate role in the future of Afghanistan that is in conjunction with the American strategic pact with India.

While Pakistan finds it to be totally unacceptable, because if India is given a position in Afghanistan, larger than life, it will sure create problems for the whole region, particularly for Pakistan and China.

In view of this disconnect between the US and Pakistan regarding India, how do you see Pakistan playing its role in the endgame of Afghanistan?

The members are requested to pass on their valuable comments on the topic as it relates to one of the most burning issues in current affairs.

Regards

[aphrodite]

India cannot possibly achieve any more than US has in A-tan. China is going to be vary of its continued presence there. We need to acknowledge the fact that outside Kabul, neither USA nor India is likely to sway supreme because of an unflinching Taliban presence. Southern A-tan is practically out-of-reach of NATO.
However, this doesnt mean Indian presence there isnt threatening Pakistan. What it does mean however, is that we can bank upon diplomatic overtures to like-minded countries in the region like Russia, Iran and China to tame its presence. These countries are anti-US,anti-India (yeah, Russia is increasingly so and so is Iran), or anti-US-India alliance. Pakistan is faced with an excellent opportunity today.And I think its about to realize it-aka-post-Salala attacks.

There is no way US or anybody else is getting anything out of A-tan without Pak help. Because Pak is the only party to have access to Taliban groups and can harness a negotiation process as an intermediary. And if Pak decides to help, it will naturally secure its interests. If US agrees to Pak demands (which i dont think it will) alls well. But if it doesnt, there will be a deadlock, and given USA's history of bullying to achieve menial goals-it will turn into a serious trouble.
I think US' decision to bank upon India is one of the most dire strategic mistakes its committing in over a 100 years. Its betting on the wrong horse. This is not based on our inherent bias for India, but purely on ground realities.

[Hamza Kahlon]

I think if i was to be commenting it would be awfuly similar to what aphrodite bro said.
But to some up everything in my head id just say that, the first think we need is to be united, as a nation and work on the, now volatile relations we have with the baloch province.
Actually, i dont mind India's venture into Afganistan. I can only see, in due time, A-tan exporting the 'germs' into India. Apart from the magnificent view Indian media gives us, the reality on the ground is far from pleasant. India has its own 'terrorists' and separist movements to deal with e.g. The Maoist rebels. I just think it will be further fuelled in due course of time.

As for Pakistan, i firmly believe, as long as there is a Afganistan, it just cant do without Pakistan. Pak influence in that country is kind of, eternal.
The end game is only for America and India.
Afghanistan can not survive by having hostile relations with Pak, whether it has US, Russia or for that matter India with them

[Hamza Kahlon]

I think if i was to be commenting it would be awfuly similar to what aphrodite bro said.
But to some up everything in my head id just say that, the first think we need is to be united, as a nation and work on the, now volatile relations we have with the baloch province.
Actually, i dont mind India's venture into Afganistan. I can only see, in due time, A-tan exporting the 'germs' into India. Apart from the magnificent view Indian media gives us, the reality on the ground is far from pleasant. India has its own 'terrorists' and separist movements to deal with e.g. The Maoist rebels. I just think it will be further fuelled in due course of time.

As for Pakistan, i firmly believe, as long as there is a Afganistan, it just cant do without Pakistan. Pak influence in that country is kind of, eternal.
The end game is only for America and India.
Afghanistan can not survive by having hostile relations with Pak, whether it has US, Russia or for that matter India with them.

[Hamza Kahlon]

I think if i was to be commenting it would be awfuly similar to what aphrodite bro said.
But to some up everything in my head id just say that, the first think we need is to be united, as a nation and work on the, now volatile relations we have with the baloch province.
Actually, i dont mind India's venture into Afganistan. I can only see, in due time, A-tan exporting the 'germs' into India. Apart from the magnificent view Indian media gives us, the reality on the ground is far from pleasant. India has its own 'terrorists' and separist movements to deal with e.g. The Maoist rebels. I just think it will be further fuelled in due course of time.

As for Pakistan, i firmly believe, as long as there is a Afganistan, it just cant do without Pakistan. Pak influence in that country is kind of, eternal.
The end game is only for America and India.
Afghanistan can not survive by having hostile relations with Pak, whether it has US, Russia or for that matter India with them...

[azeegum]

Originally Posted by aphrodite

We need to acknowledge the fact that outside Kabul, neither USA nor India is likely to sway supreme because of an unflinching Taliban presence. Southern A-tan is practically out-of-reach of NATO.
we can bank upon diplomatic overtures to like-minded countries in the region like Russia, Iran and China to tame its presence.

There is no way US or anybody else is getting anything out of A-tan without Pak help. Because Pak is the only party to have access to Taliban groups and can harness a negotiation process as an intermediary. And if Pak decides to help, it will naturally secure its interests. If US agrees to Pak demands (which i dont think it will) alls well. But if it doesnt, there will be a deadlock, and given USA's history of bullying to achieve menial goals-it will turn into a serious trouble.
I think US' decision to bank upon India is one of the most dire strategic mistakes its committing in over a 100 years. Its betting on the wrong horse. This is not based on our inherent bias for India, but purely on ground realities.

True, neither India nor US is likely to influence Afghanistan because of an unflinching presence of Taliban. Infact this country has a famous history to its name mentioning the stories of its nation's resolute presence against the toughest phases of war on it. So, the received wisdom at invading Afghanistan is that you enter the country at your will but you cannot exit according to your wishes. Alexander the great invaded it in 329 B.C, the British in 1842 and 1879, and then the Soviet Union invaded in 1979 and withdrew in 1989- all were forced to withdraw without any victory over this country hence an abject misery. The history repeats itself again in Afghanistan when the US has to announce the withdrawal by 2014 too. So A-tan continues to remain undefeated.
Yes I completely concur with you that Pakistan should develop diplomatically friendly terms with the countries sharing common interest like Russia, Iran and China. Russia though has given the friendly gesture to Pakistan by offering a sufficient aid for its steel mills. Things will sure start to look up for Pakistan once it realizes the identification between friend and foe.
Apart from that Aphrodite, Pakistan is up against another dangerous challenge in near future.
I second with your last lines too.
Well, adding more to it, the story of the endgame of A-tan seems a lot convoluted as I read it in yesterday's dawn.
The US wants Karzai regime (with full security of his family and core team), building the capacity of Afghan army, filling the vacuum of ISAF and assist A-tan- all at least till 2014.
Besides, the US would be satisfied if there is a comprehensive disarmament and demobilisation of the militants and their reintegration into the Afghan security set-up, for this will bring more cohesion and preclude the maintenance of the large 250,000 men Afghan army that is a non-sustainable burden on Afghan finances.

While the Taliban are likely to demand the following in a peace deal with the Afghan government:
Removal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan; ending hostile operations against insurgents and their families in Afghanistan and Pakistan; recognition of the Afghan Taliban as a political movement and removing their names from the UN terrorist list; agreeing on a version of Islam to be implemented in Afghanistan; removal of corrupt elements from the Afghan administration and prosecuting or exiling some of the warlords.

Pakistan would be happy with a solution that created an anti-Indian set-up; gave a prominent role to the Taliban in Afghanistan’s future; led to the departure of foreign forces; ended drone strikes and weakened insurgent groups in Pakistan.

But the US plans to channelize India as a proxy power in A-tan, which is most likely not going for the US this time. So, regrettably the endgame does not seem to conclude satisfactorily, because the main nations to conclude on the endgame do not have common aspirations. Let us see what happens!

Originally Posted by Hamza Kahlon

Actually, i dont mind India's venture into Afganistan. I can only see, in due time, A-tan exporting the 'germs' into India.

Well if A-tan exports germs into India, then Indian presence will serve for Pakistan as a blessing in disguise. But, as you know the peace in A-tan means the end of line for the international terrorists there but it does not necessarily mean they will leave the areas in FATA or elsewhere in Pakistan...
Some knowledgeable circles fear that these international terrorist might join local Jehadi groups to gain space and permeate their influence in Pakistan. So, Pakistan also needs to exclude this possible new threat from making further inroads.

[mujipak]

Unfortunately Pakistan is the most affected country of US-Afghan war. In 2001 Pakistan were in the dilemma to choose whether Taliban which are supposed to be the western border guardian of Pakistan or the USA who was angrily waiting for the response of Pakistan in-fact the USA was only waiting for a "Yes" by Pakistan. Now this war hasn't proved to be a successful adventure for US, they lost so many of their soldiers and money. The war-on-terror bring the US economy in a horrendous position and US faced the terrible recession. Now USA wants to quit this war without any proper and positive outcome for them to save the ill economy, but USA will remain here as far as its intelligence operations are concerned. Pakistan is in a tough situation because the present Afghan government has sympathies for India and reservations against Pakistan. What I believe that Pakistan should be capable to handle their tribal areas and western borders as its own and give a strong and clear message to the world that the Indo-Afghan alliance is destabilizing Pakistan and if such hazardous practice will continue then the peace of this region would be at high risk. For instant Pakistan should have to quit this war as soon as USA announce to leave Afghanistan and make a positive and proper policy about Pak-Afghan relations although it would be depended on Afghan government that how they take Pakistan's actions in this regard but we have to complete our home work at the earliest.

[azeegum]

Originally Posted by mujipak

What I believe that Pakistan should be capable to handle their tribal areas and western borders as its own and give a strong and clear message to the world that the Indo-Afghan alliance is destabilizing Pakistan and if such hazardous practice will continue then the peace of this region would be at high risk. For instant Pakistan should have to quit this war as soon as USA announce to leave Afghanistan and make a positive and proper policy about Pak-Afghan relations although it would be depended on Afghan government that how they take Pakistan's actions in this regard but we have to complete our home work at the earliest.

I completely concur with you bro, but for all that to happen all the units of Pakistan have to unite at one platform- the people of Pakistan, political and military leadership- none of them can take themselves out of the equation when it comes such crises...