ANY WAY OUT?
By M.B. Naqvi


Situation today is precarious, pregnant with different possibilities. If good sense prevails, Pakistanis can regain their lost sovereignty and a democratic dispensation may be within reach. But equally, selfishness of rulers can lead to dangerous consequences. It all depends.


The Supreme Court continues to do the country proud by being a court of law, unafraid and upright. A third historic judgement was handed down on Thursday last by simply noting that Sharif Brothers were Pakistanis and had the fundamental right under Article 15 to return and reside and no one can prevent their re-entry into Pakistan.


General Pervez Musharraf, used to unlimited powers, is threatened by two forces: Supreme Court and superior judiciary now insist on law being obeyed and Constitution prevailing. But that is superficial. The reality behind the independence of judiciary today is the awareness of common Pakistanis and their support for it. This is a rejection of military-controlled government. The common chant today is to send the military back to barracks and force them to remain a subordinate government department that obeys law and Constitution.


Doubtless, Musharraf still insists on getting himself re-elected by the current Assemblies that are now reaching the end of their mandate. True, he has the votes in them and shall be re-elected ‘President’ till 2012. Thus reinforced, he will hold elections in much the same way as he did in 2002 and deal with PML (N) and PPP later depending upon announced results. The question is: who outside the charmed circle of power would accept this.


Pakistan is facing chaos: Various rebellions and uprisings are threatening the state. The potential of creeping Talibanisation over NWFP and parts of Balochistan are well-known. Even Punjab is not immune from it. Prestige of the six religious parties alliance, MMA, has helped this Talibanisation processes. Behind the MMA’s formation was General Musharraf’s own advice and an ambiguous relationship between the military and the Mullahs has been known. Trouble is inherent in the extra austere Islam’s spread that undermines and seeks to displace the old state with its own.


There is a nationalistic rebellion in Balochistan. No one expects Balochistan Liberation Army to win over Pakistan Army soon. But a steady insurgency is in progress; and no end is in sight. The state has failed to overcome and root out this rebellion. The potential of this is also ugly, if the feared foreign involvement materializes.


Musharraf regime is basically a partnership of Pakistan Army with America. Americans have ensured that in the last five years over $ 60 billion have come into Pakistan thanks to War on Terror. The Musharraf-picked economic team is supposed to have performed miracles. Pakistan is projected as either having taken off or being close to it.


The government has assiduously promoted consumerism by keeping interest rates low and letting banks finance consumption by the middle class – resulting inflation and basic economic facts be damned! The country’s GDP growth rate soared to 8.4 per cent in one year and the average of 7 per cent has been maintained during last four years. This is the near miracle frequently referred to, buttressed by reference to sizeable monetary reserves. If propaganda could make a country take off, Pakistan should have been soaring at a high altitude. The facts remain dismal, however. With law and order deteriorating and crime rates climbing, the strengthening of ethnic nationalism in Frontier, Balochistan and Sindh debilitates the military-dominated Pakistan. Nothing has been done during the last eight years to reverse or slow down the process.


Come the year 2007. The rebellions flared up in earnest in Frontier, Balochistan and even in Islamabad. Remember Lal Masjid affair that lasted all of six months. The regime showed that it had no will to take on the Taliban-like extremists in the Mosque Complex with which it had historic links (through secret agencies). The world has now woken up to Pakistan state itself going the way it had once assisted the Talibanisation processes in Afghanistan and later used in Kashmir. Suspicion is that some elements of the state may still have links with, and sympathy for, Taliban and or other extremists.


In recent years this suspicion has progressively grown in America. Although they appear to have no option but to go on backing Musharraf, they can only be searching alternatives. At first they suggested Benazir Bhutto and her PPP were adequately modern, moderate and pragmatic politicians. They wanted to tag them with the Musharraf’s team to enable Pakistan to fight the War on Terror as a non-Nato ally of America better.


Musharraf seemed to have bought this idea at first and did a deal in Abu Dhabi. But he came under other pressures and has lagged behind in implementing the understandings he had given, even if he is not going back on them. He can alter the deal as he goes along and wants to have the last say in ‘managing’ 2007-08 elections. He may be interpreting the deal narrowly of being first re-elected and holding elections next and then actually doing a deal with whoever emerges winner in the polls.


Meantime, the over four-months-lawyers’ agitation has brought about a sea change in ordinary people’s opinions, particularly in Punjab. The famous docility of the people may have ended. The Supreme Court, once the people’s new temper was on full display, thanks to the media, is now quite a different institution. It is big, bold and upright. Legal fraternity too has thrown up new leaders.


As Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim has said, the SC has given three historic judgements in just over a month. On July 20 it reinstated the CJP of Pakistan in his job after Musharraf’s illegal dismissal of him; it has taken a hard line with the executive regarding the Latin America-like ‘disappearances’ by intelligence agencies; that has had an electric effect on the country; and now on Thursday they allowed the Sharif Brothers to return as and when they want to and forbade the executive from putting any obstacles. Other High Courts and the judges have also become independent and strong.


One way or another, both the PPP’s top leader Benazir and PML (N)’s Chief Nawaz Sharif would soon be back in Pakistan. The government is threatening to arrest Sharif, though. Political opinions will thus become radical some more. The legal fraternity has not spoken so far over this re-election. The fact is that, given the public opinion and strong judiciary, Musharraf regime’s options have rapidly narrowed. His programme of current Assemblies re-electing him now looks fanciful. He may not be able to get away with it. There may be no way out except, theoretically, by imposing a tough State of Emergency or a brutal Martial Law.


But who can do it? If Ayub could not impose a partial Martial Law in 1969 and Yahya balked, what likelihood is there that Musharraf can take the drastic measure to save his own rule. Others in the regime may be hollow men but they are not dummies. There may be no way to save this discredited regime. Of course, it has an honourable option: Musharraf should realize when and where to stop. He should call a representative conference of political leaders and other eminent persons and tell them...
You have a few days to find a formula for the future of this state. Go ahead.’ But can it be all that simple? Not merely that. Besides, Musharraf, a particular general, is not the issue. The main issue is the Army-domination of the polity. Who, or how, is going to clean up its Augean stables?

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