The high drama at the Islamabad airport showed General Musharraf’s determination to keep his nemesis off the Pakistani soil by disregarding a verdict given by the Supreme Court on August 23 which allowed him to enter Pakistan freely and without any obstruction. The deportation means there is more than what meets the eye between Sharif, Musharraf regime and the Saudi Kingdom.

After his second exile to Saudi Arabia under which he is supposed to stay there for another three years, the question arises: what are the options for Nawaz Sharif if he is really wedded to his mission of restoring democracy in his country? An instant issue is how the Supreme Court will react to his ‘forced’ deportation? Why did the regime opt for extreme measures against Nawaz Sharif on September 10 when the ruling PML-Q had advised the government to let him come in the country? These are the questions agitating the minds of observers and the general public.

That Gen Musharraf was hardly prepared to tolerate Nawaz Sharif’s presence on the Pakistani soil is no secret. That he would not let any opportunity go spared to build a case against the former prime minister so as to prevent his return to Pakistan’s volatile politics was very much evident. Where Nawaz Sharif stumbled was his belated acknowledgement of an exile agreement reached with the Saudi Kingdom in December 2000. Whether it was for ten years or five years was of little relevance. At a joint press conference on September 8 in Islamabad, both Prince Muqrin of Saudi Arabia and Saad Al-Hariri of Lebanon, invited by Gen Musharraf to help him politically, waved a copy of the agreement and urged Sharif to honour it by not to returning to Pakistan.

Time will tell how far Musharraf has succeeded in getting rid of Nawaz Sharif who now faces a double jeopardy: the unpleasantness created between him and the Saudi royal family because of his defiance of his pledge to the latter and the credibility gap which he is facing after confessing that there did exist an exile agreement. But, observers believe, he has secured political mileage despite his abortive visit to Islamabad.

After obtaining a favourable verdict from the Supreme Court, Nawaz Sharif was in a state of euphoria and felt as if the world has changed and he just wanted to forget about his immediate past. He was over-excited to announce his return plans. Gen Musharraf, on the other hand, saw his return as a destabilising factor for his plan to get himself re-elected and remain in power with the help of Ms Benazir Bhutto. The only effective card he had with him was the exile agreement and he was to play it efficiently. When Sharifs were reminded about this agreement, they denied having signed any agreement and called it a government propaganda. The options for Nawaz Sharif and his party are, however, not limited. Sharif cleverly utilized the option of not taking his brother Shahbaz Sharif with him so as to let his brother coordinate political activities with his party from London. Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif’s wife, Kulsom Nawaz, has announced her plan to leave for Pakistan to lead an anti-regime movement. She is not unfamiliar with her new task as she had played a crucial role in mobilising popular support for her detained husband after October 12, 1999 military coup. However, if the Musharraf regime also sends her packing to Jeddah, it will only be helping Nawaz Sharif’s cause.

While Nawaz Sharif may not be expected to return to the country for a long time unless something dramatic happens, his political profile can be kept alive by his party and the newly-formed All Parties’ Democratic Movement (APDM). It seems the government’s high-handed measures of September 10 against Nawaz Sharif may also help re-establish his credibility which he lost after admitting the existence of the exile agreement with Saudi Arabia. Then the legal battle, which the PML-N will fight in the Supreme Court against the deportation of Nawaz Sharif, can also help shape up new political momentum in the country.

On the whole, the dominant impact is not in government’s favour because it failed to honour the Supreme Court’s judgment and involved a brotherly friendly country in the domestic affairs of Pakistan. If Sharif lost a moral ground by confessing to the exile agreement on September 9, he regained it on September 10 by facing the ugliest treatment.

It goes without saying that the violation of Supreme Court’s verdict of August 23 will cause direct friction between the superior judiciary and the government. It is not unlikely that the Supreme Court may order the government to ensure the return of Nawaz Sharif from Saudi Arabia. This will aggravate the political situation and also badly affect relations with Saudi Arabia. What happened on September 10 in Islamabad has polarised the Pakistani society between pro-Musharraf and anti-Musharraf factions. The next round of confrontation between the opposition and the government will follow the Supreme Court’s decision. Nawaz Sharif’s decision to return to Pakistan was also taken after the reinstatement of the Chief Justice and the Supreme Court verdict in his favour.

The deportation decision is also a rebuff to the PML-Q request to allow the former prime minister to return home. It seems the decision was taken after seeking Washington’s opinion. Unlike Benazir, who has established good rapport with Washington and is considered to be in the same wavelength with General Musharraf on several issues, there is a trust deficit between Sharif and the United States on the same issues. Although, before returning to Pakistan, Sharif assured Washington of his resolve to fight terrorism, but suspicions about his alleged links with Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders and his newly formed equation with the MMA have not gone well in Washington. General Musharraf may have exploited the US suspicions against Sharif by using the Saudi card so as to prevent him from returning to Pakistan. Furthermore, Musahrraf was not inclined towards the PML-Q request as he was not willing to take chances by allowing Nawaz Sharif and letting him mobilise a popular movement against his rule.

If the first round was won by Nawaz Sharif when the Supreme Court in its judgment allowed him to return to Pakistan without any obstruction, General Musharraf is victorious in the second round because of his skilful manipulation of the Sharif’s agreement with the Saudi Kingdom. Perhaps, the third round will be final as the parties concerned will use whatever trump cards they have. After all, Pakistan’s politics hardly cares about ethics, principles and basic tolerance. In the entire drama of power politics and political expediency, which is being played these days, nowhere the real issues are to be seen or debated. Is it not unfortunate that the voices of 160 million people of Pakistan who want a better quality of life, respect and basic security are not heard by those who are supposed to provide them an honest and dynamic leadership?

Finally, with the deportation of Sharif to Saudi Arabia, one can expect legal and political battle between his supporters and the Musharraf regime. Of course, Sharif managed to return to Pakistan for a couple of hours but that has been at the expense of his political image and reputation. It is true that every Pakistani has a right to return to his or her country as ruled by the Supreme Court in its verdict. Nawaz Sharif as a Pakistani citizen, cannot be prevented from entering his own country. Some political analysts and legal practitioners see the September 11measures as creating a bad precedent for the country, particularly at the international level.