Dawn Articles by Najmuddin A. Shaikh

[Noman]

Eventful days ahead
Najmuddin A. Shaikh

(Wednesday October 17, 2007)
There is greater interest in how the Supreme Court will handle the issue of the constitutionality or otherwise of the National Reconciliation Ordinance.
By Najmuddin A. Shaikh

EVENTFUL days and weeks lie ahead. Today the Supreme Court will resume hearings on the petitions challenging the president’s eligibility for re-election by the current national and provincial assemblies.
In one sense this can be deemed a non-event, since few people expect the decision to go against the President. But we will have to wait and see. There will also be an academic interest in the reasoning the Court will employ in justifying its decision.

There is greater interest in how the Court will handle the issue of the constitutionality or otherwise of the National Reconciliation Ordinance. On a legal plane the two issues may be seen as entirely different but if considerations of ‘public interest’ outweigh the application of the letter and spirit of the existing law in one case will they not do so in the other?

The other event is of course the long awaited arrival of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and that is of much more immediate interest. The preparations made by the party stalwarts suggest that much of Karachi will be shut sown as the ‘jiyalas’ from all over the country respond to the call to ‘chalo’ to the airport and provide a fitting reception to the returning leader and her entourage.

The current expectation is that there will be no effort by contending political parties to thwart the grand plans of the PPP and certainly no repeat of May 12. Whether such forbearance is prompted by the recent emphasis on national reconciliation or by discreet advice from other quarters it will be, if borne out in practice, a positive development.

The important question however will be whether this display of public support will be enough to eliminate or at least mitigate the damage done to her image and that of her party by the American brokered deal with Musharraf? Will she be able, in her first public speech on Pakistan soil after many years of exile, to restore the Bhutto ‘magic’ and to convince the sceptical masses and the even more sceptical media that transitional rather than transformational politics offered the best prospects for bringing full democracy to Pakistan?

A third anticipated event -the return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif — is not likely to occur. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has been quite categorical in asserting that the Saudis will continue to play host to Nawaz Sharif for the full 10 years for which he had agreed to go into exile thus quashing rumours that Nawaz Sharif would leave Saudi Arabia for London shortly and then arrive in Pakistan before the end of the month.

This gives the lie in some measure to the president’s hints that Nawaz Sharif too may be allowed to return to Pakistan before the general elections as part of the grand reconciliation process. What will the Supreme Court bench headed by the Chief Justice himself have to say on this subject?

The fourth event -- the dissolution of the Assemblies and the induction of caretaker central and provincial governments — cannot also be long delayed given the announcement by the prime minister that the general elections are to be held in the first half of January. The induction in the NWFP of the highly respected and reportedly apolitical technocrat Mr Shamsul Mulk as chief minister, following the dissolution of the NWFP Assembly, is a positive development.

The question is whether such technocrats with no political ambitions and no agendas of their own will be found and appointed to head the caretaker governments in the Centre.

Certainly the prospects for genuinely free and fair elections will improve immeasurably if this is done. Could such a central caretaker government ensure that the internal political wing of the ISI is made non functional during this period or better still is wound up?

The next question that arises is that if the ISI is not active what happens to the MMA? Given the fissures in the ranks of the MMA, it appears that despite Qazi Hussain Ahmad’s desperate efforts the JUI and JI will not contest the forthcoming elections as one party.

What is even more important however is whether the election rule, requiring candidates to have a graduate degree, will be implemented and whether as a result many of the party stalwarts currently occupying seats in the central and provincial assemblies will be declared ineligible?

As I recall, the Supreme Court has yet to rule on whether the sanads granted by the religious schools can be regarded as the equivalent of graduate degrees. Will this case be scheduled for hearing before the elections? Will this government press for it?

How far will the abysmal record of the Durrani government in the Frontier weigh with the voters of that province? Many of them are calling for an examination of the assets of the erstwhile chief minister and his cabinet colleagues while yet others are asking for an assessment of the contribution made by his government to the growth of extremism in the tribal areas and the adjoining settled districts. Similar noises are gaining in volume and stridency with regard to the MMA components of the Balochistan cabinet.

On the other hand there is no doubt that disillusionment with the ‘pro-American’ establishment has grown through the length and breadth of the country and all politicians with the exception of some elements of the MMA are seen to be tainted in the same way. Will this translate into additional voter support in areas where the MMA does not have to defend a poor record of governance? Or will other more militant independent candidates emerge? If they do will they have support from some radical elements of the establishment?

All these are matters of considerable significance but of even greater significance to my mind is the growing perception that notwithstanding the deployment of 100,000 troops, the situation in the tribal areas is now beyond the army’s capacity to control.

A well researched article by the respected Guardian reporter Jason Burke appearing in last Sunday’s Observer paints an alarmist picture of a complex situation in which fractious warlords, flushed with drug money and contributions from rich sympathisers appear united only in opposition to the Pakistan government and where Al Qaeda appears to flourish with the help of some local support obtained partly through bribery and partly through ideological sympathy.

According to him, Nato officers in Afghanistan concede that there is a danger that the south and east of Afghanistan, already well beyond the authority of Kabul, will effectively translate “de facto autonomy” into independence. That raises the spectre of the confederation of warlord states that is in the process of emerging on the Pakistani side of the border effectively trebling in size with the addition of the Taliban-controlled zones in Afghanistan.’ ‘It would be the United Taliban Emirates…. It would be the biggest and most defensible terrorist safe haven the world has ever seen’ he quotes one observer as saying.

One can only hope that these fears are unfounded. One can only hope that means will be found to block the flow of funds to this area and that this in addition to political talks reinforcing military action will succeed in preventing such a fearful denouement.


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