The clear danger in the tribal areas
Khalid Aziz

Events in FATA are rapidly moving towards the final act of the war on terror. The escalation in the war began with the attack by the US and Afghan forces on a check post of the Frontier Corps in Mohmand Agency some weeks ago in which an officer and ten soldiers were killed.

Shifts in strategy in this war occur gradually, preceded by messages through the media. For instance, the introduction of targeted assassination by predator pilotless planes in the tribal areas was preceded by a US media campaign that these areas were infested with terrorists. This was followed by the Predator attack, which led to the escalation of the war when these deaths increased.

Now for the last couple of months the US media has been selling another product; this time it relates to creating a demand in the public mind for undertaking operations inside Pakistani tribal areas by US troops. Was this what President Karzai referred to when he said some weeks ago that Pakistan should stop militant attacks from the tribal areas or Afghan forces would enter to remove their safe havens? We all know what the capacity of the Afghan military is – it was a message from the alliance forces.

On the other hand, the militants are giving their messages. Their messages lie in the pattern of their attacks. These are meant to create a rift between the governments of the region. A few weeks ago there was a Taliban suicide attack on the central jail in Kandahar which killed more than 100 people and freed 1,400 prisoners. President Karzai blamed Pakistan for this attack. On July 6 there was a suicide attack on the police in Islamabad which killed 19 persons, most of them policemen. This attack took place on the anniversary of the Lal Masjid assault by the Pakistani army. This attack showed the existence of a third hand since the bombing by an Islamist on an occasion where sympathisers of the Lal Masjid martyrs were present was unthinkable.

On July 7 there was a huge suicide bombing targeting the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which killed two high-level Indian diplomats, including the defence attaché, Brig. Ravi Dutt Mehta, and the political counsellor; 56 persons died. The attacker aimed at the Indian military – it was a pointed message to stay away. The Taliban denied the attack. The Indian media accused Pakistan in a kneejerk reaction. On July 8, an IED was discovered on a bus carrying Indian workers to a road making project in Nimroz province. Apparently the attacks are meant to highlight the Taliban dislike for the growing Indian involvement in Afghanistan and also to prevent India and Pakistan from moving forward on Kashmir.

Incidentally, the cooperation between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban and Kashmiri Mujahideen has become visible in various fights in Waziristan, Kohat and Swat. On Jun 24 an Afghan Taliban commander Khan Agha and five others was killed in Swat. On another front the government has lost control of the region lying between Hangu and Sadda in Kurram agency. Strong militant groups have entrenched themselves in Zargari and Doaba in Hangu district. They have been eroding the government's security structure by kidnapping police, government officials and Shias on their way to Parachinar in Kurram.

Many of the arrested Shias have later been found slaughtered. The result is that the Shias now travel to Peshawar from Parachinar through Afghan territory where they feel more secure. A few days ago a busload of Shias travelling to Parachinar through Khost in Afghanistan were attacked and kidnapped. The Afghan forces reacted and within a few hours not only recovered the victims but also killed the kidnappers. It showed a high degree of professionalism by the Afghans.

In the last few months there have been numerous articles in the US media and comments by members of think tanks regarding a threat to the US and world security from the tribal areas – many of them have recommended US intervention. They are a harbinger of US action on the ground in the tribal areas soon. Such an action would be a colossal mistake, with dangerous results for Pakistan and the region. It will break the compact against terrorism. It will strengthen the militants who would welcome such a move. The publication of such reports coincides with the US presidential elections in November.

This election year is particularly dangerous for Pakistan. President Bush will be leaving office in January and therefore any possible adverse rating has no impact on him. On the other hand, Mr Bush would like to end his term by leaving a positive legacy. An average US citizen would applaud President Bush's action of ordering the US military go into the tribal areas after the militants, particularly in Waziristan. This strategy permits Mr Bush to leave office with applause. Who really cares what the long-term impact of such a move is?

Recent reports from North Waziristan and Kurram indicate the movement of joint NATO, US and Afghan military units to the Pakistani border. Kurram and North Waziristan villages report disruption of cell phone communications, which is a precursor of military operations. Alliance aircraft also bombed Pakistani border posts on the South Waziristan border, injuring nine Pakistani soldiers.

There is also a report, although unconfirmed, that the Shia tribes in Kurram have petitioned NATO forces for protection against the Taliban who have made their lives miserable. Around 130 years ago the Shias made a similar petition to the British, who then annexed Kurram. Is history repeating itself?

If this report proves true then it is a huge condemnation of the government and its weak policies. The Shias may have been approached to present such a petition as a justification for intervention. It also suggests that the government is not able to protect the lives of its own people. In this context, arguments about sovereignty do not hold water.

It has been said that the duality in Pakistan's security policies, which deal with the Taliban and Kashmiri Mujahideen with kid gloves, has now rebounded on the country. Pakistani government and media have been critical of violation of its airspace by allied forces. However, alliance forces have disregarded such protests. It is likely that air attacks on Fata will escalate, forcing Pakistani forces to withdraw from the border to prevent the embarrassment of fighting its supposed allies. This will likely be followed by simultaneous aerial reconnaissance and raids to pick up villagers for intelligence gathering. The last phase will predictably be attacks on militant camps in Waziristan. It is important to note that alliance forces have advanced to the border to block the funnelling out of the militants into Afghanistan. This deployment will initially cause problems for the Taliban. However, after a few weeks the novelty of the move will lose its value as the Taliban discover how to deal with it. One of the lessons of frontier warfare is that the moment you become predictable you are in serious trouble.

It is now obvious that the period of the phony peace in FATA and the NWFP is over. It also shows that the weakening of institutions can lead to very serious consequences. If the allies intervene in FATA it will generate a situation which would have very serious consequences for national solidarity. Regrettably, Pakistan lacks a cohesive leadership to get on top of this crisis. She is also isolated and friendless.



The writer is a former chief secretary of NWFP and heads the Regional Institute of Policy Research. Email: azizkhalid @gmail.com