Pakistanis eye US presidential candidates

By NAHAL TOOSI
The Associated Press
Sunday, October 5, 2008; 11: 07 AM

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- A Pakistani wish list for the next U.S. president might read something like this: an end to cross-border strikes on militants, more aid for the country's battered economy and greater support for its elected government.

But few people here expect to be satisfied whoever enters the White House _ a sign of the difficulties ahead for the U.S. in winning public sympathy at a critical time in the war on terrorism.

Pakistanis, many of whom speak English well, have been treated to considerable coverage of the U.S. race via local newspapers and television channels. Few, however, are seeing substantive differences between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

"Maybe Obama appears harsher, but McCain is sugarcoating the same bitter pill," said Anwar Mahmood, a small business owner among many ordinary Pakistanis, analysts and politicians interviewed by Associated Press reporters across the country.

Dealing with nuclear-armed Pakistan and the spillover of the Afghanistan war into its territory is one of the biggest foreign policy challenges awaiting the next president.

With the Taliban resurgent in Afghanistan, the U.S. is pushing Pakistan to eliminate militant bases on its side of the border and has carried out a surge of missile strikes against suspected al-Qaida and Taliban targets.

Pakistan is battling rising terrorist violence of its own, underscored by last month's bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad that killed 54 people.

The Muslim nation of 170 million is hit by soaring inflation, food costs and deficits, while the government _ less than seven months old _ is still struggling to establish its authority.

Obama has openly supported U.S. strikes in the lawless and rugged border region, and has questioned whether Pakistan has done enough to fight militants despite receiving more than $10 billion in U.S. aid since 2001.

McCain says engaging Pakistanis is vital to defeating extremists, and that cross-border strikes shouldn't be discussed "out loud."

His vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, raised eyebrows when she appeared to endorse Obama's more hawkish tone on Pakistan. McCain was forced to defend the remark, saying it was not meant to be taken as a policy statement.

"I don't see much difference in essence in their approaches, so I don't see any change in the policy, whoever comes to power," said Khalid Mahmood, a longtime Pakistani diplomat.

Many fear the financial crisis roiling America could mean a drop in aid and trade with Pakistan.

"Things are going to be worse for Pakistan in the post-election scenario," predicted Irum Khan, a 28-year-old psychologist in Karachi. "The new U.S. government will face immense financial pressure and they will not be able to look after Pakistani interests, financial or political."

Obama has several advantages in Pakistani eyes.

He is a Democrat, offering hope for a fresh American foreign policy after eight years of President Bush, who is deeply unpopular in Pakistan.

The notion of a U.S. president with African roots is attractive to many Pakistanis, who believe he may be more receptive to developing world concerns.

Some like Obama because they believe _ incorrectly _ that he is Muslim.

McCain is seen as too close to Bush, but his less aggressive stance on the cross-border operations has been noted, while his foreign policy experience and military background are also cited as pluses.

"He is right in saying it is impossible to win the war on terror without the support of the people of Pakistan," said Shahid Rana, a lawyer in Lahore.

Pakistan government officials have been careful not to publicly support one candidate versus the other, noting they'll have to work with the winner, whoever he is.

Farzana Raja, a senior member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, said the next U.S. president should support democracy in Pakistan, something that would be helped by more economic aid.

The Bush administration supported Pervez Musharraf, a one-time army chief who took power in a 1999 military coup. He quit Pakistan's presidency in August to avoid impeachment.

Cutting off aid "will not combat the terrorism in our country," Raja added.

Pakistanis are savvy enough to distinguish between election rhetoric and the realities of office.

"The real face will emerge after either of them comes into power," said Ahsan Saeed, a 45-year-old from Karachi.
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Associated Press writers Ashraf Khan, Babar Dogar and Khalid Tanveer contributed to this report.

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Taliban said to be furious over US strike

By ISHTIAQ MAHSUD
The Associated Press
Sunday, October 5, 2008; 1: 06 PM

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan -- The Taliban are furious about the latest apparent U.S. missile strike in Pakistan, indicating a senior militant may be among two dozen people killed, officials and residents said Sunday.

The attack Friday on the North Waziristan tribal region was believed to have killed several Arab fighters but government officials have been notably quiet.

However, two Pakistani intelligence officials said insurgents were moving aggressively in the area while using harsh language against local residents, including calling them "salable commodities" _ an accusation of spying.

The intelligence officials, who said their information came from informants and field agents, interpreted the Taliban's anger as a sign that a senior militant may have been among at least 24 people killed. But that has not been confirmed, said the officials, who sought anonymity because they were not allowed to speak to media.

The U.S. has ramped up cross-border strikes that target alleged al-Qaida and Taliban hideouts in Pakistan's tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. Pakistani leaders have condemned the attacks as violations of their country's sovereignty.

Pakistan's chief army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said at least 20 people died in the attack, eight of them foreign militants.

Two residents in the area targeted Friday said Taliban fighters warned people not to discuss the missile strike or inspect the rubble at the site. The residents requested anonymity for fear of Taliban retribution.

Taliban and top Pakistani government spokesmen either could not be reached, did not return calls or declined to comment on the strike.

The U.S. rarely acknowledges cross-border attacks inside Pakistani territory by forces from Afghanistan. A U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan, 1st Lt. Nathan Perry, did not deny U.S. involvement but said he had "no information to give."

Extremists based in Pakistan's border regions have been blamed for attacks on American and NATO forces in Afghanistan and for violence inside Pakistan. Al-Qaida leaders including Osama bin Laden are believed to be hiding somewhere in the lawless tribal regions along the border.

Just last month, a suicide truck bombing killed 54 people and severely damaged the Marriott Hotel in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.

Pakistan's fledgling civilian government has tried to convince the population it cannot duck the fight against militancy. But leaders also warn that American attacks in Pakistan inflame public opinion against the West and undermine the fight against terrorism.

On Wednesday, intelligence agencies are to privately brief lawmakers about the militant threat facing Pakistan during a special joint session of parliament.

Pakistan has been carrying out its own operations against insurgents in the northwest.

Security forces on Sunday killed two alleged Taliban commanders in Swat, one of whom was believed to be affiliated with al-Qaida, said Maj. Nasir Ali, an army spokesman.

In the Bajur tribal region, overnight clashes with security forces killed five suspected militants, police official Fazl Rabi said. A Sunday bomb blast wounded five people in a compound where tribal elders were meeting to discuss ways to rid the area of militants, Rabi said.

The military offensive in Bajur has earned praise from the U.S., but it has also prompted a mass exodus of civilians fleeing the fighting.

Many are in relief camps in Pakistan, but some 20,000 Pakistanis have crossed the border into eastern Afghanistan, according to the United Nations.

Meanwhile, a three-day ultimatum from the government for Afghans living illegally in Bajur to leave was due to expire later Sunday. Of an estimated 80,000 Afghans, only about 15,000 had left, said Abdul Haseeb, a local government official.

He said "the administration may be lenient and give them another couple of days."

It was unclear whether the Afghans were all heading back across the porous, disputed border to Afghanistan or simply going to other parts of Pakistan.
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Associated Press writers Habib Khan in Khar and Asif Shahzad and Zarar Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.

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20 in Pakistan Die in Bombing

Suicide Blast in Central Region Targets Shiite Opposition Leader

By Candace Rondeaux
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, October 7, 2008.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Oct. 6 -- At least 20 people were killed and 35 injured Monday in a suicide bombing that targeted the home of a well-known politician in central Pakistan, according to Pakistani authorities.

The attack occurred in the small town of Bhakkar, where a man wearing a vest filled with explosives entered the home of Rashid Akbar Nawani, a member of Parliament and top opposition leader. The home was packed at the time with guests celebrating the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, according to local police officials. Unable to reach Nawani, the suicide bomber detonated his explosives in the middle of the crowd.

The attack appeared to be a departure from the insurgent playbook. As Pakistan has moved awkwardly from military rule to a civilian government, the country has suffered more than 20 major suicide bombings since the year began. Most have occurred in large cities. The attacks have also been concentrated in the country's troubled northwest, near the border with Afghanistan.

Taliban insurgents began stepping up attacks on targets in the country's interior in the spring. They delivered their most devastating blow to the country's capital two weeks ago, when they detonated more than a ton of explosives at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad. That incident killed more than 50 people and injured at least 250. It remains under investigation.

A security official with the Interior Ministry who spoke on the condition of anonymity confirmed that at least 20 people had been killed in Monday's strike. But local news reports suggested that the death toll could climb, with some television stations reporting as many as 35 killed and 53 injured.

Khadim Hussain, deputy superintendent of police in the area, said Nawani was slightly injured in the attack and was being treated in a local hospital. Hussain said that the head of the suicide bomber had been found but that investigators would need more time to determine the motive for the bombing.

Nawani, an outspoken member of the opposition party led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, has been a critic of the sectarian violence between Sunni and Shiite Muslims that has broken out in Pakistan's tribal areas in recent months. Earlier this year, Nawani, a Shiite, gave an impassioned speech calling for an end to violence against Shiites, who are a minority in Pakistan.

The bombing in Bhakkar marked the third high-profile attack on a Pakistani politician in less than a week. On Thursday, Asfandyar Wali Khan, the Awami National Party leader and one of Pakistan's most widely respected politicians, survived a suicide bombing at his home in the northwest town of Charsadda. Five people were killed.

On Sunday, Islamist insurgents in the country's North-West Frontier Province apparently targeted the ancestral home of Amir Haider Hoti, chief minister of the province and a top leader in the secular ANP. No one was injured in the missile strike.

Special correspondent Shaiq Hussain in Islamabad contributed to this report.
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Unwelcome Afghans quit Pakistan battle zone

By MUNIR AHMAD
The Associated Press
Tuesday, October 7, 2008; 10:17 AM

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Afghan refugees were flowing over the border from a Pakistani battle zone Tuesday after officials accused them of links with Taliban militants and ordered them out, police said.

Pakistani authorities have told Afghans living in the Bajur tribal region to go back to their homeland and leave an area where troops have been fighting a bloody war with insurgents.

The order risked adding to the humanitarian crisis resulting from the two-month-old military offensive in a long-neglected region that had become a base for militants fighting on both sides of the frontier.

U.S. officials concerned about the escalating insurgency in Afghanistan have praised the operation, which the Pakistani military claims has killed more than 1,000 insurgents. It has given no figure for civilian casualties.

Bacha Khan, a police official at the Toorwandi border post in Bajur, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that refugees had been crossing steadily into Afghanistan, while others had moved to other parts of Pakistan.

He had no figures for how many Afghans had left since officials distributed leaflets in Bajur last week telling them to go.

However, he said an estimated 20,000 refugees had returned home in recent weeks. Thousands more had moved to other parts of Pakistan, he said.

An Afghan community leader in Khar, Bajur's main town, urged the government to provide transport to the refugees who complied with the order.

"We are poor people, and we don't have enough money to pay for the buses," Ghulam Jan said.

Authorities threatened to deport those who resist. Iqbal Khattak, a government official in Khar said 45 Afghans had been detained so far and some Afghan-owned shops sealed.

Pakistani officials say the fighting in Bajur has displaced up to half a million people _ roughly half the population of the region. Most have found refuge in nearby areas of Pakistan with relatives or in rough camps.

The U.N. refugee agency said last week that 20,000 people had moved into the neighboring Afghan province of Kunar. It described them as "Pakistani families" and forecast they would return when the fighting stops.

Kunar provincial police chief Abdul Jalal Jalal said Tuesday that a total of 30,000 people had arrived from Pakistan.

Sardar Khan, an official dealing with refugees in Kunar, said that of 4,140 families there, 70 percent were Pakistani and 30 percent Afghan.

He said seven families had arrived Monday.

"They are very poor families. The people are giving them shelter" in their homes, he said.

Afghans flooded into Pakistan during years of conflict before U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban government in 2001.

According to U.N. figures, over 5 million have since returned. However, Pakistan complains that refugee camps and Afghan communities remain hotbeds of militant activity and has been pressing hard for them to be cleared.

The U.N. said Tuesday that about 250,000 refugees had returned to Afghanistan so far this year and that some had cited insecurity in northwestern Pakistan as the reason they moved.

Militants have responded to military operations in Bajur and other regions with a spate of suicide attacks, including the Sept. 20 truck bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad.

The latest blast occurred Monday, when a bomber injured an opposition lawmaker and killed 17 people in Bhakkar, a town beside the Indus River.

Baitullah Mehsud, a prominent Taliban commander, issued a statement denying involvement. Some reports speculated that the motive for the attack on the lawmaker _ a Shia Muslim _ was sectarian.

President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani both decried the blast. According to state media, Zardari said "such heinous incidents cannot deter the government's resolve to fight against terrorism."

In a bid to build political support, the government has convened a joint session of the upper and lower houses of parliament on Wednesday to discuss the security situation.

Pakistan's main Islamist party, meanwhile, stepped up its agitation against the military operations in the border region as well as Islamabad's close ties with Washington.

"Why do we get American aid? For development? No, we get it to bomb our own people," party leader Qazi Hussain Ahmed said Tuesday.
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Associated Press Writers Asif Shahzad in Islamabad, Habib Khan in Khar and Rahim Faiez in Kabul contributed to this report.
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Suspected US missile strike reported in Pakistan

By ISHTIAQ MAHSUD
The Associated Press
Friday, October 10, 2008; 12:23 AM

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan -- A suspected U.S. missile strike targeted two areas in a Pakistani tribal region near the Afghanistan border Thursday, killing at least nine people, Pakistani intelligence officials said.

Also on Thursday, bombings targeting police killed 10 people and wounded 14 in Pakistan's volatile northwest and the capital _ reminders of the challenge facing the country as its lawmakers pursue a national anti-terror consensus.

The alleged missile strikes appeared to be part of a surge in U.S. cross border assaults from Afghanistan on alleged militant targets in Pakistan, which have strained ties between the two anti-terror allies.

One missile strike occurred at a house in Tappi village in North Waziristan tribal region. Some of those killed were believed to be foreigners, said two local Pakistani intelligence officials, citing reports from informants and agents.

A local tribesman, Shoaib Dawar, said Taliban militants surrounded the house. He said drones were heard in the area before the strike.

Pakistani intelligence agents on Friday were investigating the identities of up to eight foreigners believed killed in the strike.

"Between six to eight foreigners were killed in the attack, but we don't know whether they were from al-Qaida and what was the purpose of their presence in the area," a third intelligence official from Miran Shah, the main town in North Waziristan, said.

A second alleged strike was reported at a house in the village of Dande Darpa Khel. The site was near a seminary of veteran Taliban commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, considered an archenemy of the U.S. No casualties were immediately reported.

The intelligence officials requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The army could not immediately be reached for comment.

U.S. Defense Department spokeswoman Eileen Lainez said "I have no information on any alleged strike."

Al-Qaida and Taliban militants have used Pakistan's tribal areas as bases from which to attack U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, spurring U.S. frustration with Pakistan. The tribal regions also are considered potential hiding places for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri.

Pakistani officials have protested that such strikes violate the nation's sovereignty. The U.S. rarely acknowledges such missile strikes. Some of the strikes are believed to be carried out by the CIA, which is said to use Predator drones.

In the bombings Thursday, one attack, an apparent suicide car bombing, occurred in a police complex in Islamabad. It wrecked an anti-terror squad building and wounded at least four police.

Meanwhile, a roadside bomb struck a prisoners' vehicle in the Dir region near Afghanistan and killed two police, four inmates and four children. Ten people were wounded, said Sher Bahadur Khan, a senior government official.

Pakistan's northwest region bears the brunt of the violence in the country. But in recent weeks, the militants have repeatedly demonstrated their reach extends farther.

In September, a suicide truck bombing of an Islamabad hotel killed 54 people. Security has been beefed up since in the capital, and it was especially high Thursday for a parliament session on finding a national anti-terror strategy.

State media reported that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and President Asif Ali Zardari insisted attacks like those Thursday would not deter Pakistan from battling extremists.

But many citizens believe Pakistan's support of the U.S.-led war on terror is what's spurring the violence. The fledgling civilian government has urged Pakistanis to take ownership of the war on terror.

After the parliament session adjourned Thursday, some politicians said they wanted more details on social, economic and other aspects of the extremist threat, not just military operations.

Some complained that much of the data shared had already been released in the media.

The session was set to resume Monday.
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Associated Press writers Riaz Khan in Peshawar, and Munir Ahmad, Zarar Khan and Nahal Toosi in Islamabad contributed to this report.
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Danger Ahead for the Most Dangerous Place in the World

By Sumit Ganguly

Here's an alarming thought: Pakistan is in even scarier shape than most of the so-called experts are willing to admit.

This nuclear-armed state of 168 million is no stranger to political upheaval, of course. But this time, things are different. Today's crisis -- marked by a rash of suicide bombings, the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto last December, inflation as high as 25 percent and a resurgent Taliban movement -- could spell doom for the Pakistani state. The global financial crisis has only made matters worse: Pakistan's foreign-exchange reserves are collapsing, and credit markets are worried that it could soon default on its debt payments. The grim truth is that Pakistan is becoming something alarmingly close to a failed state. And that could have disastrous consequences for the United States, NATO and Afghanistan's struggle to hold back its own Taliban insurgency.

True, Pakistan does have a newly elected president, Asif Ali Zardari, but let's not kid ourselves about his ability (or even desire) to turn his country around. During his last stint in office (as minister of investment in the government led by his late wife, Bhutto), Zardari became known as "Mr. Ten Percent" for his alleged propensity to skim funds from lucrative government contracts. And Zardari's likely replacement, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, may be even more corrupt and incompetent.

Simply put, Pakistan is facing an existential crisis -- on its streets and in its courts, barracks and parliament. American pundits and politicians might be hoping for the best for the country whose lawless border regions are widely thought to harbor Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders. But I don't see much chance of a happy turnaround. If, as both Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain have claimed, a strong, dependable Pakistan is the key to winning the war in Afghanistan, we are waging an unwinnable war.

I have studied Pakistan for nearly 20 years and have traveled throughout the country several times. Yes, I am ethnically an Indian, but I am a U.S. citizen and harbor no animosity toward Pakistan or its citizens. After spending so much time studying the place, I've grown rather fond of it. But I worry that many Pakistanis -- and Americans, for that matter -- don't want to hear the bad news. Look, for example, at the reaction to the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad last month, which may well have been designed to kill Zardari and decapitate the Pakistani government. For a few days, a sense of urgency filled the airwaves; the attack was called "Pakistan's 9/11," a wake-up call to a society facing grave security threats from Islamists and other radicals. But like most wake-up calls in Pakistan, it was soon drowned out by nationalistic bombast, and distorted by pundits who argue that it was American pressure on Pakistan to "do more" about al-Qaeda that got the tribal militants and mullahs riled up in the first place. "Now after helping create this chaos," wrote Ayaz Amir, probably the country's most influential columnist, several days after the bombing, the Americans "are expecting the battered state of Pakistan to bestir itself from the ashes and perform miracles." Amazingly, the Marriott attack is now considered America's problem, as if that crater in the center of the capital magically belonged to another world.

The roots of Pakistan's problems run deep, back to the failure of the state's founder, Mohammed Ali Jinnah, to plant deep democratic roots and create a tradition of compromise. After Jinnah's death on Sept. 11, 1948, his successors proved incapable of dealing with the myriad challenges facing the new country.

Confronted with millions of refugees, rising ethnic and sectarian tension and material shortages of every sort, Pakistani leaders quickly turned to the military to restore order. In 1958, the military seized power and set in motion a long string of coups, distracting the country from the crucial task of building a strong state and weakening the civilian governments that occasionally managed to take the reins.

The military has dominated the nation ever since, with disastrous results. The generals helped spark the 1971 civil war that resulted (partly because of Indian intervention) in the creation of Bangladesh. In the 1980s, the military ruthlessly suppressed fratricidal violence in Karachi, the capital city of the southern province of Sindh. Not surprisingly, such moves left deep ethnic fissures in Pakistani society. And the military played with fire again in the 1980s when, following the disastrous lead of the dictator Mohammed Zia ul-Haq, it brought more and more Islamist sympathizers into its ranks.

The United States was fully aware of this ugly history when it partnered with the military's intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to launch a holy war to drive the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan in the 1980s. That policy funneled billions of dollars to the Pakistani military and greatly expanded its reach -- and its willingness to stoke tensions with Pakistan's old nemesis, India. Starting in 1990, the ISI helped fuel a full-blown, religiously charged insurgency inside the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. And with India to their east, Pakistan's leaders were eager for a quiet border to their west. That led the ISI to become the leading ally of the Taliban after that band of Islamist zealots came out on top of the nasty civil war that followed the Soviet retreat from Afghanistan in 1989.

Nor has the ISI cut its ties to its Afghan friends in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that al-Qaeda plotted from its Taliban-granted haven in southern Afghanistan. Despite Pakistan's angry denials, both India and the United States have now fingered the ISI as the principal instigator of the bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul in July.

The ISI's leaders and the generals who run the Pakistani military have been playing a duplicitous game with the United States for nearly two decades. The country's former dictator, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, supposedly chose to break with the Taliban after 9/11. But in fact, the ISI has been against us as often as it's been with us. Pakistan has been accepting vast amounts of U.S. funding and weaponry for supposedly helping the West rout the forces of bin Ladenism even as the ISI has been fueling those very forces in its ongoing drive to gain a strategic foothold in Afghanistan and get the upper hand in the conflict with India.

Even during the short periods of civilian rule in Islamabad, the power of the military and the ISI has continued to grow. In the mid-1990s, for instance, the military was racing headlong to acquire nuclear weapons even as Bhutto was assuring U.S. diplomats of Pakistani nuclear restraint. And today, the ultimate authority over the country's nuclear weapons complex rests with the military, which has yet to account for the freewheeling nuclear marketing program -- reaching into Libya, North Korea and who knows where else -- of A.Q. Khan, who, although under nominal house arrest, is still regarded by many Pakistanis as a national hero.

Pakistan's tragedy is that, from the beginning, no government, civilian or military, has fixed the underlying fragility of the state's basic institutions. Instead, democrats and dictators alike have subverted political parties, threatened journalists and cowed the civil service in their quest for short-term political gain and personal advantage. Musharraf, who finally resigned last August under threat of impeachment, had a particularly pernicious tenure; during his nearly nine years in office, the military's long tentacles reached deeper and deeper into Pakistani life. Under fitful pressure from the United States after 9/11, he briefly clamped down on a range of Islamist organizations and Kashmiri radical groups, but within weeks allowed them to reconstitute themselves under different names.

So can Pakistan be reformed, or is it doomed to collapse? Despite the country's post-Musharraf return to civilian rule, its prospects are grim. As of last month, ISI has a new leader, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, handpicked by the Army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, to replace a predecessor whom Bush administration officials suspected of having ties to the Taliban. But there is little reason to believe that Zardari's weak, fractious government will be able to reform the ISI. In July, according to the Economist, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani "tried to bring the ISI under the control of the interior ministry. His decision was reversed within hours."

The country could once again make a desultory return to military rule as its troubles mount. The generals may well be able to restore some semblance of stability, but their ties to the Islamists and the ISI's ongoing soft spot for the Taliban will only lead Pakistan further into the vortex. Meanwhile, Pakistani troops have fired on U.S. forces launching raids across the Afghan border; Obama has promised to strike inside Pakistan if Islamabad refuses to act upon good intelligence about the whereabouts of al-Qaeda leaders; and McCain has vowed to pursue bin Laden "to the gates of hell." It's not a soothing picture.

We need a stern, serious international effort -- led by the United States -- to put Pakistan back together again, reform its institutions and reorder its priorities. If not, we will face a terrifying prospect: Pakistan's collapse (slow or otherwise) into a full-blown failed state, armed with nuclear weapons, riven by ethnic tensions, infused with resentment and zealotry, with roving bands of Taliban sympathizers and bin Ladenists in its midst.

Sumit Ganguly is director of research at the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University and an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy.
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Pakistan clashes kill over 40 rebels, 2 soldiers

By Sahibzada Bahauddin
Reuters
Tuesday, October 14, 2008

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (Reuters) - More than 40 Islamist militants and two soldiers have been killed in the latest fighting in Pakistan's troubled northwest near the Afghan border, paramilitary force officials said on Tuesday.

Pakistani security forces in recent months have been locked in battles with militants in the Bajaur ethnic Pashtun tribal region as well as the nearby Swat Valley, a mountain valley once popular with tourists.

In an apparent reaction to the Pakistani offensives, militants have unleashed a wave of suicide bomb attacks in Pakistan, most in the northwest.

The Pashtun regions are havens for al Qaeda and Taliban guerrillas and the United States has carried out a series of missile attacks as well as a ground assault on militant targets in Pakistan since the beginning of September.

In the latest fighting in the Swat Valley, at least 25 militants were killed in a clash with security forces in the Khawazakhela area on Monday, an official with the paramilitary Frontier Corps said.

Two soldiers were also killed and three wounded.

Security forces have been fighting loyalists of a pro-Taliban cleric, Mullah Fazlullah, who has led a violent campaign to impose Taliban-style laws in the region.

Security forces pounded a Fazlullah stronghold last week and killed several of his colleagues but he escaped unhurt.

In Bajaur, to the west of Swat and on the Afghan border, security forces backed by helicopter gunships killed 15 to 20 militants in attacks in the Charmang district on Monday, said another paramilitary force official.

The military launched an offensive in Bajaur in August and according to official estimates, well over 1,000 militants have been killed in the region, which the military describes as a militant "center of gravity."

In the latest militant bomb attack, a suicide car bomber attacked a meeting in the Orakzai region on Friday as tribal leaders met to raise a force to fight the insurgents, killing more than 50 people and wounding more than 100.

The violence has added to worries about nuclear-armed Pakistan, as the civilian coalition government that took office this year struggles with a deteriorating economy.

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Pakistan investigates US detainee

By ZARAR KHAN
The Associated Press
Tuesday, October 14, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistani police were questioning a 20-year-old U.S. citizen who was arrested close to the Afghan border, as new clashes in the region killed 17 militants, officials said Tuesday.

The man was arrested late Monday at a checkpoint in the frontier region, the scene of months of fighting between militants and security forces and considered a possible hiding place for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and other foreign extremists.

Police officer Marjan Khan said the man was wearing traditional Pakistani clothes and was carrying a laptop computer and a travel bag.

"He has told us that he was a student at a community college in Florida and wanted to enter the tribal region to see a friend," Khan said, adding he had been taken to an undisclosed location for questioning.

Another police officer, Pir Shahab, said the man's passport identified him as Juddi Kenan. He did not have permission to be in the region as required by Pakistani law.

The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad and its consulate in Peshawar have contacted Pakistani officials about the reported arrest and are seeking confirmation, embassy spokesman Louis Fintor said. He declined further comment.

Authorities often claim to kill or arrest foreign militants, mostly from Afghanistan, the Middle East and Chechnya, in the border area. Western extremists are also believed to have traveled there in the past.

Fighting is spreading across Pakistan's northwest as the government tries to crack down on Taliban and al-Qaida fighters blamed for soaring attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In the latest violence there, 17 militants and two pro-government tribesmen were killed in fighting in Bajur, where a military offensive has continued for more than two months, a government official said.

Fighter jets pounded trenches on Tuesday, killing five militants, while overnight artillery and mortar attacks left 12 extremists dead, said government official Muhammad Jamil Khan. Two pro-government tribesmen also died in the fighting, he said.

Pakistan's secular, pro-Western government says it is trying to forge a national consensus on how to combat terrorism. However, many Pakistanis blame the violence on their country's support for U.S. policy in its pursuit of al-Qaida and the Taliban.
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Associated Press writers Habib Khan in Khar and Asif Shahzad in Islamabad contributed to this report.
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In Scramble for Cash, Pakistan Turns to China's Deep Reserves

By Anthony Faiola and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, October 16, 2008

Pakistan has reached a critical new phase in its long-deteriorating financial situation, as investor flight and bleeding of national reserves force the country to scramble for international funds to shore up its economy. With the global financial crisis draining coffers in the United States and Europe, the key U.S. ally in the war on terrorism is seeking help from an old friend newly flush with cash: China.

President Asif Ali Zardari arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a four-day state visit as concern has surged over a possible debt default by Pakistan that could cripple its economy and spark more civil unrest. While the amount of money Pakistan needs in the short term is relatively small -- $4 billion to $6 billion -- analysts say the climate of crisis and public anger over domestic bailouts in the United States and Western Europe have made even a modest infusion from its Western allies politically difficult.

Pakistan's bid for Chinese cash underscores the potential of Beijing's $1.9 trillion in foreign reserves, the largest in the world, to boost its global influence. The government is now seeking as much as $3 billion in emergency assistance from China, as well as assistance from oil-rich Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to a senior Pakistani official. Pakistan's central bank governor, Shashad Akhtar, is in Washington this week to review a draft plan for overhauling the country's finances with the International Monetary Fund, potentially paving the way for future aid.

U.S. military and intelligence officials fear that Pakistan's increasingly precarious economy will compound an already unstable political situation and undermine military cooperation. Both al-Qaeda and the Taliban leadership are located in the rugged, economically depressed region along Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan. The Bush administration and Congress have been shaping a long-term economic and military assistance package for Pakistan, but there is no indication the United States is able to step in with a short-term financial lifeline.

Pakistan is going to the Chinese now "because you go to the guys with the money," a senior International Monetary Fund official said. "And right now, the Chinese are the ones with the money."

Securing as much as $6 billion would buy the government the breathing room it needs, analysts say, to begin a desperately needed overhaul of its budget to sustain Pakistan's battered economy in the longer term.

Pakistan's financial problems go back at least a year, with current and past administrations borrowing from the central bank to sustain generous state subsidies on gasoline and diesel. As global oil prices surged, the government of former President Pervez Musharraf curried favor with average Pakistanis by having the state absorb the shocks. Musharraf ousted a democratically elected government in 1999 and ruled until a civilian coalition was voted into office last spring, headed by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani. The government forced Musharraf from the presidency in August, electing Zardari as his replacement in September.

Analysts and IMF officials say the current government has made notable progress in lifting those subsidies in recent weeks to ease the budget. Yet the global credit crunch and concerns over security have worsened investor flight, with as much as $1.2 billion a month fleeing Pakistan during the summer. National reserves over the past year have fallen 67 percent to $8.3 billion, leaving the country ill-prepared to deal with financial turbulence as more investors pulled out in recent weeks as the U.S. crisis spread globally.

That has fed two major fears. First, that Pakistan may not be able to secure the funds to avoid a debt default early next year. And second, that investor concern over its potential insolvency could grow into a panic in coming weeks, leading to a far broader capital pullout that could jeopardize the country's financial system.

Unprecedented inflation, political instability and the growing threat from Islamist insurgents have all had sharply negative affects on investor confidence, said Sakib Sherani, chief economist at ABN Amro Bank Pakistan.

"It is clear that Pakistan is facing challenges in its balance of payments. Without cash inflows we are losing about $1 billion a month, which is untenable," Sherani said. "On the one hand you are paying more for imports in Pakistan, on the other you have less cash inflows."

On Oct. 6, both Standard & Poors and Moody's downgraded Pakistani bonds. "Only Seychelles has a lower rating, and it has already defaulted on its debt," said John Chambers, managing director with Standard & Poors in New York.

To curb losses, Pakistan in recent weeks has set new rules on stock trading aimed at preventing even sharper sell-offs of Pakistani companies. Some analysts are concerned that the new government may resort to freezing foreign capital, a measure Pakistan took in the 1990s after being slapped with global sanctions for conducting a nuclear test.

The Pakistani government is seeking to ease those fears by bolstering its central bank reserves with funds from China and Gulf states. China and Pakistan have a long history of economic cooperation, based partly on decades of weapons sales, and a lifeline now, particularly so small a sum, would not be seen as unusual. "The Pakistanis like to call the Chinese their all-weather ally, and the U.S. their fair-weather friends," said Daniel Markey, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "This kind of loan could be seen as self-serving by the Chinese, and continue that impression."

A senior Pakistani official said the government requested in July that Saudi Arabia chip in with an "oil facility" -- or an agreement that would grant Pakistan concessionary terms and delayed payments and on roughly half the oil it imports. One reason investors are more concerned about Pakistan now is that Saudi Arabia has not yet responded.

Analysts say the Pakistanis may have better luck at a meeting early next month in the United Arab Emirates of the "Friends of Pakistan" -- a group of countries including the United States and Britain that are considered close allies. They are counting, sources close to the talks said, on countries seeing the danger of an economic collapse in Pakistan and the threat that poses to the war on terror as worth the relatively small price of financial assistance.

A last option might be seeking a lifeline from the IMF, though such an agreement is seen as politically difficult for the new government. Pakistan paid off the last of several IMF loans in 2005, with Musharraf hailing the accomplishment as a breaking of the nation's beggar's bowl. By seeking IMF help now, analysts say, the new government may find itself in the difficult position of explaining to the population why it needs to glue that bowl back together.

Pakistani officials, however, are meeting with IMF officials in Washington now, seeking their "seal of approval" on the plan to rein in runaway spending threatening to bankrupt the government. Although IMF officials say the Pakistanis are not seeking a loan, IMF approval of their economic plans could pave the way for other institutions, including the World Bank and Asian Development Banks, to offer lending. It could also make approval of an IMF loan at a later date happen faster.

"What they want is an endorsement in principle," a senior IMF official said, "something that would make financial support go more smoothly if they decide they do need to ask for it."

Correspondent Candace Rondeaux contributed.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...101503852.html

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US diplomat visits Pakistan amid new violence

By HABIB KHAN
The Associated Press
Monday, October 20, 2008

KHAR, Pakistan -- A top U.S. diplomat met with Pakistan's prime minister Monday as Pakistani security forces used artillery and fighter jets to kill seven suspected insurgents in the northwest tribal region, officials said.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher's visit comes amid strains between the two nations over suspected American missile strikes on militant targets in Pakistani territory. Television footage showed him meeting with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in Islamabad. He also was expected to hold talks with President Asif Ali Zardari.

Pakistan has carried out its own offensives against insurgents in the northwest, which borders Afghanistan. Overnight, three suspected militants were killed by artillery fire in Bajur, a tribal region where the military has been battling insurgents since early August, government official Jamil Khan said.

Four more suspected insurgents were killed in airstrikes Monday morning, Khan said.

The military said nearly a month ago that it had killed more than 1,000 suspected militants in Bajur, but has not announced a new death toll since then. Officials also have not estimated civilian deaths, though Bajur residents have reported that many have been killed.

In the northwest's Swat Valley, the army media center raised the death toll from clashes the previous day to 25 suspected militants. The bombs hit an ammunition dump in the Barthana area, causing extensive damage.

The army center said it had no reports on civilian casualties there. But Anwer Ali, a Barthana resident, told The Associated Press in a phone interview the bombing by fighter jets had hit a house, killing a woman and two of her children.

Their bodies were recovered by villagers after the bombing stopped, Ali said.

U.S. Embassy spokesman Lou Fintor confirmed that Boucher was in Islamabad but would not provide details of his schedule other than to say he would meet a range of government and civil society leaders.

On Sunday, Boucher visited Peshawar, the main northwest city.

There, North West Frontier Province Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti told Boucher that the provincial government wants to "resolve all political problems through peaceful dialogue, but there wouldn't be any compromise on maintaining the writ of the government," a statement from Hoti's office said.

The U.S. has criticized previous peace deals with insurgents, saying they simply gave the extremists time to regroup.

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Associated Press writers Zarar Khan and Nahal Toosi in Islamabad contributed to this report.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...102000167.html

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