Economics of Indus basin treaty:

Hina 11(MISS Einstein) · #1 Sunday, January 18, 2009

Economics of Indus basin treaty:

By Shazia Mehmood Khan

Water is power, which has every colour of life and element of growth. Pakistan is facing a very dire situation on its water resources. Most recently, India has closed the Chenab water flow and as a result the shortage of water has become even more severe. It is estimated that the water blockade by India could adversely affect the kharif crops, particularly cotton and sugarcane which are now in the maturity stage and required a final watering.

Estimation of IRSA:

According to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) an acute shortage of water is set to create havoc with Pakistanís crops. It will face a shortage of 35-40 per cent in the upcoming Rabi (winter) season, threatening the wheat crop, which is critical for the countryís food security. Furthermore, the blockage of Chenab water would only be more harmful to our economy in the days to come.

Integrated efforts of the government:

The federal minister for water and power said that Pakistan received only 20,000 to 22,000 cusecs of water due to which crops especially rice spread over in which acres of land suffered. Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW) has already registered a protest to his Indian counterpart, the Foreign Office has raised the issue with the Indian High Commissioner in Pakistan and the Pakistan High Commissioner to India discussed the issue with Indian External Affairs Ministry. The Pakistan Indus Water Commission has already taken up the matter with the federal government in order to reach a diplomatic solution with New Delhi.

Pressure on irrigation system of Pakistan:

The water authorities in the country are already estimating more than 35 per cent shortage of irrigation water during the next Rabi season, following a decline in the melting of snow in Northern Areas, higher withdrawals by provinces during Kharif and increased hydropower generation. India's unilateral decision to stop the Chenab flows has put additional pressure on the irrigation system of Pakistan, which used to receive more than 23,000 cusecs a day, but it had now been brought down to almost zero.

Violation of Indus waters treaty:

India and Pakistan have successfully regulated their use of the rivers through the Indus Waters Treaty signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank but the most recent blockade of Chenab water by India is a clear-cut violation of the Indus Water Treaty. Under the Treaty, India cannot reduce the flow in Chenab River below 55,000 cusecs between June 21 and August 31 where Pakistan received as low as 20,000 cusecs during August/September 2008. The Government of Pakistan protested on the construction of the baglihar dam over the River Chenab and feared about the expected blockage and a consequent shortage in its water share which seems to be coming true.

Verdict of Swiss engineer:

A year and a half-ago a Swiss engineer appointed by the World Bank, gave his verdict which, while supporting India's right to build a run of the river hydroelectric project, upheld some of Pakistan's objections. He suggested a few design changes, including that the pondage capacity of the dam to be reduced by 13.5 percent and its height by 1.5 meters. More importantly, the verdict required the power intake tunnels to be raised by 3 meters. This particular provision was to help limit flow control. The two countries had said they would honour the verdict, but India has failed to make the necessary design alterations.

Multiplier effects:

Economists say that kharif crops have a special significance in the national economy. Agriculture constitutes about 21 per cent of GDP and the cropsí contribution is anywhere from ten-twelve per cent. The kharif cash crops have a major role with almost seven per cent direct share in the overall economy, but what is more important is that these crops sustain key industries such as textile, sugar and also a very big chunk of national and international grain trade, any further blockage would only be more harmful to our agricultural sector. The delaying of watering period will dent the output of these crops, which is critical to Pakistanís economy. The government has to import more than two million tons of wheat this year despite a record production of more than 23 million tons and the prolonged blockage of water by India could badly affect the agricultural productivity. This would force Pakistan to import more wheat next year, adding to the foreign exchange pressure and worsening its balance of payments crisis. It is a general perception among all major stakeholders in the country that if the Chenab closure prolongs, the sowing of Rabi crops, particularly wheat would be hit severely.

Punjab and blockade of Chenab River by India:

It is estimated that Punjab will have to bear a huge monetary loss amounting to almost Rs37 billion in the wake of a blockade of the Chenab River by India. According to the preliminary estimates of Punjab irrigation department, over 10 million acres of land in the province has been affected including standing paddy crops in the area. 10 million acres of land in the areas of Sialkot, Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Hafizabad, Faisalabad, Okara, Lahore, Pak Patan, Vehari and Bhawalnagar have also been affected. Out of these 10 million acres, 5.6 million acres have adversely been affected in the areas of Sialkot, Gujranwala, Jhang, Faisalabad and Sheikhupura.

Integrated strategies:

Pakistan can manage overcome impending water scarcity challenges by adopting proper and timely strategies besides enhancing its reservoirs and reducing water losses in the country in which some of them are the following: (a) Constructing dams, currently there are two crises at a global level i.e. energy and food crisis in which both have linkage with dams.
(b) Need for removal of the seasonal imbalances in water distribution to have maximum utilisation of the resources.
(c) Introducing water efficient irrigation techniques
(d) Adequate and effective participation of the private sector

Concluding remarks:

Water is like oil for the 21st century. Like oil, water is a critical lubricant of the global economy. In the 21st century, Asia may emerge as the new focal point of water-related. The prolonged blockage of water could easily ruin our agriculture sector while water scarcity and other problems are already causing serious food shortages. Water is quite literally the lifeblood of Pakistan. Agriculture accounts for 20 per cent of the country's GDP and employs 40 per cent of Pakistan's labour force. What we need are two things: a national water policy and immediate implementation of that policy.

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