WASHINGTON: With the fairly substantive and meaningful shake-up in the top hierarchy of the Pakistan Army now complete, the key issue of Lt Gen Shuja Pasha continuing as the ISI head being the last major decision, it can be said without doubt that the politicians have surrendered the policy control and initiative on all key national and security issues, back to The Establishment, with a capital E.

The shake-up followed a flurry of top level activity in the GHQ in recent weeks, meetings of corps commanders, internal meetings including a recent gathering of key agency players who are historically involved in national issues, public meetings with the president and the PM and announcement of extensions and promotions on a large scale. All of this is seen as a precursor to the ultimate decisions of replacing or allowing the two top position holders, the COAS and CJCSC, Generals Kayani and Majid, in October and November, to continue.

The key issues on which the politicians have lost a handle are the Afghan policy, the Indian policy, the war on terror, relations with Washington and Nato, all interlinked, plus major national political issues that have the potential to destabilise the system like confrontation between institutions, amending the Constitution to balance the powers between the president and the prime minister and, unfortunately, keeping the political system going (read managing the coalition partners) despite the best efforts of politicians to dismantle it because of their greed, incompetence and lack of vision.

The initiative had returned to the politicians after the judges fiasco of March 2007, the disgraceful NRO by General Musharraf, return of Benazir and Nawaz despite Musharraf’s nonsensical claims, humiliation of the Pakistan Army and its withdrawal into a shell to save and retrieve its image, the sad assassination of Benazir Bhutto which shook the whole nation, the February 28 elections and eventually Asif Ali Zardari donning Musharraf’s suits and shoes.

But the politicians could not grow into the big shoes. General Kayani was cool and calm and methodical in reviving and retrieving his institution’s image and allowed as much space as he could until Mr Zardari and his PPP repeatedly shot themselves in the foot in almost suicidal actions, which had to be checked, almost every time by the Army, from derailing the system. Repeating that list would be a waste of space.

Instead of giving the country a national vision of a forward-looking modern democratic state which was capable of handling the enormous challenges, both strategic, security and political, Zardari has remained embroiled only in a marathon battle for his own survival and protecting his billions in and out of the country, although this was totally unnecessary. But only he is to blame.

He was in such a rush that within 18 months of his marching into the Presidency, the most loaded question today is how and when he will quit. Zardari also remained busy in taking care of his cronies and friends.

Mian Nawaz Sharif was always skeptical of the Army’s role and always tried to give Zardari more space so that he could understand the task at hand and move on by establishing his moral, constitutional, political and administrative authority, which in turn would have kept the Establishment at bay and strengthened the political system. But he also failed in achieving his goal and finally had to declare that Zardari was the biggest threat to democracy.

The politicians thus left a vacuum and the Establishment had to move in and fill it. Now the Army chief is handling the war on terror, the American policy, the policy on India in which he has skillfully demolished the ill-considered and unwanted theories presented by President Zardari, off and on, on how to proceed in Indo-Pak relations. He receives the US Army and Nato generals quietly in the GHQ so frequently as if they are part of the Pakistan Army. He visits all important capitals to explain and present the Pakistani point of view and will be in Washington later this month for the same purpose. When he leaves his home to attend a dinner for Karzai at the Presidency, it is a headline on all TV channels.

But while the Army chief has to be involved in such huge national security issues any way, the quiet return of the political wings of the secret agencies into action is a recent development. They have, of late, started to play the traditional role seen during the unfortunate days of Generals Ziaul Haq and Pervez Musharraf.

Informed insiders say recently in Karachi, spooks of these agencies, senior and junior, from all over the country, gathered in a brain-storming session to discuss the options and their responses, specially in the political arena.

Two days were reportedly devoted to these discussions and everything was put on the table. Strategies were presented, theories deliberated and some broad decisions were taken.

The developing situation, in which a beleaguered president is stuck between the deep sea and a hard rock, or surrendering his constitutional powers and becoming a Rafiq Tarar or facing a political upheaval on one side and a judicial stick on the other, was the main subject of this unusual spooks’ gathering but issues were identified and responses were discussed and even rehearsed.

This meeting instantly leaked to some allies of the PPP government and one immediate reaction was the mad rush of Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ebad to Dubai a couple of days back where he holds all strategic talks with the MQM high-ups of London, sometimes when Londoners fly into Dubai and at others on telephones lines, which are not monitored by at least Pakistani agencies.

The consensus of political observers watching these developments is that the president has to quickly decide what route he has to take, because time is of the essence. One weighty view is that Zardari has been trapped by his own prime minister because of the March 23 deadline for the 18th Amendment.

This has put him on the spot because either way, he faces a further loss of his authority or attack on his castle by an enlarged army of opposition politicians, judges, media men and angry elements within his own party.

So the Freudian slip of Zardari’s tongue at the APNS dinner that the 18th Amendment would come by the end of April, was not just a slip. It was the truth about the real mindset slipping out in a moment of laxity.

With the president in such a dire strait and the PM waiting whether he would actually get some authority, even to nominate a minister of his choice, the affairs of state are now being run by those who should only be helpful associates of the politically elected government.

The situation is back to the stage where the chowkidar is running the household, only this time discreetly, from the main gate. But if the homeowner is only interested in protecting his locker full of cash, someone else has to run the house.