By Shahid Javed Burki, DAWN

FOR Pakistan history may not repeat itself this time around. The military may not intervene in politics as it did in the past whenever it felt that the country was moving on the wrong track.

What the country is currently witnessing in terms of social and political instability and economic distress has no precedence in history. Yet in the past, lesser turbulence was reason enough for the military to step in to `save the country`. This happened four times in the country`s turbulent past.

In 1958 Gen Ayub Khan, commander-in-chief of the army, was convinced that the frequent changes in the government, with a new prime minister being sworn in every few months, justified the staging of a coup d`etat. He threw the civilians out and established a military government that ruled for almost 11 years.

In 1969 Gen Yahya Khan thought that a popular campaign against the government of Ayub Khan, prompted by an increase in the price of sugar, was a good enough reason to stage another coup d`etat and assume the presidency for himself. He ruled for almost three years and saw the break-up of Pakistan with the province of East Pakistan gaining independence as Bangladesh after a bitterly fought civil war.

In 1977, unhappiness with the alleged rigging of the elections held that year by the civilian government headed by Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto brought a large number of people out in the streets and the military was back in power, this time under Gen Ziaul Haq. The general also governed as president for 11 years. He was replaced by a series of civilian governments — seven of them, counting the interim governments that were in office to prepare the country for repeated general elections — after his death in an unexplained plane crash.

The civilians attempted to sideline the military but did not fully succeed. It was one of these attempts — by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when he tried to replace the army chief of staff, Gen Pervez Musharraf — that led to another spell of military rule. President Musharraf governed for almost nine years.

In Jan 2011, Pakistan faces an existential threat even greater than the one it had to deal with after it lost its eastern `wing` in Dec 1971. The government and society has been challenged by several extremist groups whose declared objective is to establish an Islamic order in the country that embraces all aspects of life — the economy, the legal and political systems, relations with the outside world.

The economy is in deep trouble, not expected to grow at a rate that will be much more than the rate of increase in population. This will mean adding perhaps as many as 10 million people to the already large pool of poverty. Most of the new poor will be in the urban areas to which belonged the assassin of Punjab Governor Salman Taseer. They will be willing recruits to extremist causes if the economy cannot find productive jobs for them.

The political structure is still in the process of being erected. Two days before Taseer was gunned down in Islamabad, the government headed by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani lost its working majority in the National Assembly when the Muttahida Qaumi Movement decided to part ways with it. A crisis was narrowly averted when the MQM was brought back on board.

Economics once again was the immediate cause of the government`s predicament. It is obliged to reform the tax revenue system if it wishes to receive funds from the IMF. The Washington-based institution wants Islamabad to introduce what is effectively a value-added tax in order to increase the pitifully low tax-to-GDP ratio.

This is not supported by the MQM. The party considers a value-added tax to be a burden on the urban poor and the urban middle classes. Instead, it wants a tax structure that does not have the loopholes through which the rich can walk out with impunity. It wants the government to cut down on its own expenditure, much of which it regards as wasteful.

To this interplay between rising extremism, a poorly performing economy and a political system still working to find its feet must be added the problem in the country`s western border, where the Taliban have found sanctuary and from where they are operating against coalition forces in Afghanistan. Washington would like to see Islamabad show greater resolve to eliminate the sanctuaries in its tribal areas from which these groups operate.

The use of unmanned drones by the United States to kill the Taliban leaders has also resulted in the deaths of many civilians living in the area. This has caused enormous resentment against the Americans in the country and is adding to the popular support for Islamic militancy.

If one were to trace the cause and effect of Pakistan`s current predicament, which development would be placed first? Should we consider the failure of the economy the cause for the rise of extremism? Is it extremism that is hurting the economy? Is the aggressive posture adopted by the Obama administration in the Afghan war giving the extremists the platform from which to operate?

Historians will debate these questions for a long time. What is clear, though, is that Pakistan, at this time, is moving through a perfect storm. The military appears to have concluded that changing the commander of the ship would not help it to navigate towards the safety offered by the shore. What is needed is a concerted effort that involves all major groups in society. For them to work together would require a system where their differences can be resolved.

This cannot be done by the military but has to be the responsibility of a parliament that has the elected representatives of the people, a press that watches over the working of the government, and civil society institutions that represent well-defined public interests. All these are present in the country and are gaining confidence and experience. Time is on their side.