Power-sharing among the provinces


By Nadeem Nusrat


THE question of Pakistan’s constitutional make-up and power-sharing among the country’s four provinces and ethnic minorities is once again coming under intense debate. Given the demographic imbalance and sharp ethnic differences that exist among the country’s four provinces, Pakistan badly needs a constitutional formula that can satisfy all segments of society.

However, no serious effort has been made by any quarter to provide a viable solution to this fundamental question.

Pakistan’s rulers and political leaders have failed to even initiate a serious, academic and meaningful debate on an issue that is important to the populations of at least the smaller provinces. With continuing unrest in Balochistan and the northern parts of the country, and renewed calls from some quarters to declare Pakistan a ‘failed state’ it is essential to find a constitutional solution that has the unanimous approval of all ethnic, cultural and religious groups in the country.

Democracy and the principle of representation go hand in hand. Neither can function without the other. True representation is only possible under a genuine system of democracy whereas the stability of democracy is dependent on how content a country’s various ethnic and religious groups are with their representation in power.

In the latter part of the 18th century, the British failed to assess the level of resentment among their subjects in North America over the issues of unjust taxation and their inability to challenge arbitrary British decisions. They paid the price by losing their imperial control over North America.

The founding fathers of a newly liberated United States of America, on the other hand, were quick to learn from the mistakes of their former colonial masters and realised the importance of the principle of representation. Those who undertook the task to draft the first US constitution went to great lengths to resolve issues relating to the make-up of the constitution and every state’s representation in the federal and state legislature.

Given the vast disparity between various states’ population size, it was not easy to find a solution that could equally satisfy all the states. The states with bigger populations wanted larger representation causing fear to the smaller states of being perpetually subjugated — similar to the situation that Pakistan has been in since its inception. The situation was dire and could have easily resulted in the disintegration of the newly established American federation.

The framers of the US constitution, however, resolved the brewing crisis through a series of compromises which afforded constitutional safeguards to all small and large states and ensured their due rights.

The current US foreign policy may hardly be inspiring but the American constitutional experience is a classic example of how democracy is not necessarily, as often presumed, the rule of majority. Majoritarianism may be a good rule to follow in homogeneous societies where an overwhelming majority shares a common ethnic, linguistic and religious background.

Pakistan’s problems may be acute but the country is certainly not alone in this. In recent decades, a number of countries — Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, Lebanon, South Africa, Cyprus, to name a few — with diverse populations have faced the challenge of reconciling the wishes of majority groups with the fears of minorities. But unlike Pakistan, these countries have not allowed this problem to obstruct the nation-building process and have various forms of power-sharing. The most common system of governance employed by such countries is what Arendt Lijphart, a Dutch-born American scholar, calls ‘consociational’ democracy — or to use the less polysyllabic synonym, power-sharing.

The fundamental argument for consociationalism is grounded in the assumption that democracy and majority rule may be incompatible under certain circumstances. The theory does not challenge prevailing democratic principles and, instead, focuses on societies where the population is divided along various lines. It argues that the seemingly innocuous application of majority rule in such conditions could lead to disastrous results — mainly due to the presence of influential minority groups who refuse to yield to majority rule.

The theory itself is fairly simple, and Arendt Lijphart defines it in terms of four basic characteristics:

— Joint decision-making by a grand coalition government in which all significant segments of an ethnically or religiously divided society are represented;

— A high degree of decentralisation and autonomy for the constituent communities;

— A rough proportionality in political representation and civil service appointments; and

— A mutual veto concerning the most vital and fundamental issues. The veto can be a formal rule and even be enshrined in the constitution but it is usually the outgrowth of the unwritten rule that most decisions, and certainly the most important ones, require not only the participation of the representatives of all groups but also their consent.

A critical analysis of the above clearly suggests that the whole theory of consociationalism is characterised by a series of checks and balances that remove the possibility of one group of population or one branch or government dominating the rest. By devolving power to the regional level, for instance, the system gives all groups sufficient autonomy to run their own affairs.

Similarly, by granting the power of veto in decision-making to all segments, the system effectively prevents any single group from imposing arbitrary decisions. This in turn effectively allays the minorities’ fear of perpetual majority domination. By incorporating proportional representation, consociational democracy ensures full demographic representation of all segments of society in the decision-making.

Interestingly, this power-sharing system is not entirely new to this region. In fact, it may come as a surprise to many that it was the Muslim political elite in pre-partition Punjab that was instrumental in introducing the power-sharing system that Arendt Lijphart has recently interpreted as a classical form of consociational democracy.

In British Punjab, the just over 50 per cent Muslim population, according to the majoritarian principle of democracy, had every right to form a provincial government on their own. However, roughly 18 per cent Sikhs and 30 per cent Hindus were no less influential. Thus any government without their representation would have led to disaster in the province.

Sir Fazl-i-Husain, arguably the most influential Muslim politician in the colonial setup until his death in 1936, was the first one to realise the peculiar sectarian make-up of Punjab and the perils of majority rule in the province. His brainchild, the Unionist Party of Punjab, may be criticised for its pro-British leanings, yet it would be an academic dishonesty not to credit the party for its amazing understanding of Punjab’s peculiar communal make-up and its attempts to establish an all-representative government, instead of insisting on the Muslim majority’s right to rule.

In the mid-1940s, however, the Muslim League’s politics of ‘Muslim nationalism’ brought an end to the Unionists’ consociationalism. When the League swept the 1946 elections and emerged as the single largest party in pre-partition Punjab, it was in a position, according to majoritarian rule, to demand the right to form its government in the province. But the problem was that the Muslim League, despite being the majority party, drew its support solely from Muslim electorates and was seen by non-Muslims as the representative of Muslim interests only.

The British, deeming majority rule inimical to such a religiously polarised region, denied the League the right to rule. Anyone interested in analogy can recall the political stalemate of 1971 when the Awami League, the single largest party, was denied the right to form the central government on the grounds that it lacked the mandate of the non-Bengalis. The ensuing crises were similar: Punjab was partitioned in 1947 and East Pakistan broke away in 1971.

The point to stress here is that majoritarianism is not the only form of democracy available nor is its application viable in all circumstances. It may be best suited to homogeneous countries but certainly lacks the ability to serve pluralistic societies.

Pakistani law-makers and politicians must admit that Pakistan is not a homogeneous country. They have to be mindful of the fact that Pakistan is inhabited by people who have been ethnically and culturally distinguished from each other for many, many centuries. The creation of Bangladesh was not the first example to reveal how deep such divisions run, nor is the Baloch uprising likely to be the last.

Religion and Pakistani nationalism may serve as a unifying force during external aggression and internal calamities — as witnessed during the recent earthquake. In normal circumstances, however, the apprehensions and fears of the minorities will continue to hamper the country’s efforts to achieve national unity and political stability. All previous attempts by Pakistani rulers to inculcate political or national unity through artificial means have only complicated the issue and continuing with such measures is only likely to aggravate the current predicament. What Pakistan now needs is a framework that could afford permanent constitutional safeguards to all sections of society.

As is the case with almost all other theories, consociationalism has been subject to some degree of criticism. But nothing has dampened its strength as it still remains the only system that offers an effective, and democratic way out of majoritarianism — the main source of restlessness among the country’s ethnic minorities. Pakistan’s political elite and scholars could explore the theory further and refine it as per Pakistan’s peculiar needs.

Reference: Editorial, DAWN ...... 29th July, 2006

INCOME N POVERTY
The Nation has published an article entitled “Per capita income and poverty reduction” on July 26, 2006 written by former Finance Minister Mr Sartaj Aziz. This article has been written in response to my comments on Sartaj Aziz sahib’s remarks on President Pervez Musharraf’s address to the nation telecast by a private TV channel on Friday, July 21, 2006. President Musharraf in his address to the nation on July 20, 2006 discussed at length the economic achievements of the government over the last six to seven years, including doubling of per capita income and reduction in poverty.
Sartaj Aziz in his comments on the President’s speech did not agree on two points. First, that the per capita income has not doubled and secondly, that the World Bank and the UNDP have questioned poverty estimates released by the government. He, however, agreed that ”with accelerated growth during 2001-05, some reduction in poverty has certainly occurred but cannot be so large”.
In my comments to Sartaj Aziz sahib’s remarks on Kamran Khan’s programme, I very humbly tried to explain that per capita income is a current dollar concept and that both the World Bank and the UNDP have validated the poverty estimates released by the government. In his article, Sartaj sahib not only very strongly disagreed with me but also asked me to refer to the text books that I have studied for my PhD.
Let me discuss the issue of per capita income first. Sartaj sahib has stated that real GDP has grown at an average rate of about 5.0 percent per annum during the last 6 years and adjusting for population growth of 2 percent per annum; the real GDP per capita has grown at an average rate of 3.0 percent per annum during the last six years. At this rate, Sartaj sahib states that it will take 24 years to double per capita income.
If we accept this argument then we will be stating Pakistan’s per capita income in 2030 as: Pakistan per capita income is x dollar in 2030 at the constant price of 1999-2000 (the base year). Is this the way we state a country’s per capita income? Does any country states its per capita income at constant price or at base year? Has London Economist in its June 3, 2006 issue mentioned India’s per capita income at $ 728 at the base year of 1993-94? The answer is of course no. Per capita income is defined in current dollar term and not at the base year price.
What Sartaj sahib is stating is the difference of two growth rates, ie real GDP growth and population growth and therefore, describing the growth in real per capita GDP and that, it will take 24 years to double the real per capita GDP (one may call this as real per capita ‘income’: a measure of economic well-being). Should we use GDP or GNP to represent income? It does not matter for developed countries.
For example, in 1995 the US GDP was $ 7254 billion and the US GNP was $ 7247 billion, a difference of only $ 7 billion or less that 0.1 percent. However, this difference is more prominent in the case of countries like Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc where a large number of their citizens are working abroad and sending substantial amount of remittances (see Text-books: Macroeconomics, third Edition by Andrew Abel and Ben Bernanke; Addison-Wesley, 1998; page 31 and Macroeconomics: Theories & Policies, Fifth Edition by Richard Froyen; Prentice Hall, 1996; page 18). Therefore, the proper measure of income is GNP. It is in this perspective that we define per capita income as Gross National product at market price in dollar term divided by the country’s population. And this is the number that the President gave in his speech.
Let me turn to the issue of poverty reduction. The government has released the poverty numbers for 2004-05 in Pakistan Economic Survey 2005-06. The result shows that poverty in Pakistan has declined from 34.46 percent in 2000-01 to 23.9 percent in 2004-05. Sartaj Aziz sahib is not willing to accept that a 10.56 percentage point reduction in poverty has taken place over the last four years.
Though he agrees that some reduction in poverty has certainly taken place but he is unwilling to accept a relatively large reduction in poverty. In his defence he has referred to a news item published in English daily on June 20, 2006 under the heading “WB, UNDP question poverty estimates”. It is generally observed in Pakistan that people suffer from headline syndrome. They form their opinion by reading the headline of the newspaper. I am afraid; this appears to be the case in hand. The title and the text of the same news item are at odd with each other. While the title suggests that the World Bank and the UNDP have questioned the poverty estimates, the text however shows that both the institutions have endorsed the poverty estimates of the Centre for Research on Poverty and Income Distribution (CRPRID).
Let me quote from the text for general readers. “The World Bank Country Director for Pakistan John Wall told Dawn that his institution had no hesitation to endorse the numbers arrived at by the CRPRID …”. Likewise, Prof Nanak Kakwani - an expert of the UNDP and an authority on poverty estimation, is quoted in the news item that “by adopting the poverty estimates and methodology used by the government’s CRPRID, he arrived at the poverty estimates of 34.46 percent in 2001-02 and 24.0 percent in 2004-05”. It is to be noted that this is the number released by the government, which is fully corroborated by Prof Kakwani.
In order to further clarify their position both the institutions had issued their press releases. Let me take the liberty of quoting from the press release of these two Institutions.
The World Bank’s press release of June 22, 2006 with title “World Bank validates Poverty Estimates” states that “the World Bank has validated the Government of Pakistan’s official poverty estimates as recently published in the Pakistan Economic Survey, 2005-06. The Government has maintained consistency with past measures using the same poverty line and inflation indices as used for the 2000-01 estimates…”.
“A World Bank spokesperson said that several international agencies, including the World Bank have validated this result independently”. The UNDP press release of June 22, 2006 states “The UNDP endorses the official poverty estimates. The front-page article in the DAWN dated 20 June, 2006 incorrectly states that UNDP questions the estimates. The UNDP would like to clarify that we do not question poverty estimates of the CRPRID. Mr Nanak Kakwani, a UNDP colleague and a world-class expert estimating poverty levels, examined in detail the methodology that underpins the latest poverty estimates for Pakistan. He validated the national headcount ratio as estimated by the CRPRID”.
Sartaj sahib then went on to discuss at length the paper of John Wall of the World Bank and quoted different numbers on poverty estimates. I would very humbly submit that poverty estimates and poverty lines are highly sensitive to the methodologies used and especially to the manner in which how and what type of price indices are used to inflate the poverty lines.
Different methodologies used by different development partners and other experts can come up with different numbers. For example, the World Bank would like to use different prices such as Survey Based Index (SBI) instead of the CPI-based inflation; therefore, they are bound to get different numbers. Other may like to use Sensitive Price Index (SPI) or Wholesale Price Index (WPI) or even only the food component of the CPI to inflate the poverty line and therefore, bound to get different numbers.
The question is that should the CRPRID keep on changing the methodology each time to estimate poverty? Should the CRPRID keep on changing goal post every time a new Survey is released? In that case, how can one measure the increase or decrease in poverty with different methodologies. Therefore, the experts argue that in order to maintain consistency and transparency across years, it is absolutely essential that we apply the same agreed upon methodology over the years, irrespective of its weaknesses and strengths. This is exactly what the CRPRID has done. This is exactly what the World Bank has stated in its press release that “the government has maintained consistency with past measures …….”
As regards the credibility of Pakistan’s statistics, I would simply point that the credibility has now been well established. Had there been no credibility of Pakistan’s statistics the international investors would not have taken risk on Pakistan for 30 years by investing in Pakistani paper. The floatation of Pakistan’s sovereign bond would not have been a success had there been no credibility of Pakistan’s statistics. No one would have provided billions of dollar to us had there been no credibility of statistics. Let me conclude by saying that as a nation we must learn to celebrate our success.

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This is the sign of 1 who loves GOD that his chief care z goodness n devotion n his words r mostly in praise n glorification of GOD.