By Shaheen Sehbai

Dark clouds appear to be hovering over the prospects of the upcoming general elections following the Supreme Court orders to carry out a door-to-door campaign in Karachi, led by the Pakistan Army, to check ID cards and voter lists, an arduous, dangerous and a time-consuming task in every sense. But who will gain and who will lose, who wants a delay and who will resist any postponement, why and how this will be done, is a different story. A bird’s eye view will show that no political party has actually opposed the door-to-door verification of voters, but some of them have stated, including the most affected party, the MQM, that this exercise should be conducted throughout the country, if at all. The political argument behind this demand is that since it would be an impossible task to accomplish countrywide, it would also somehow save Karachi from the corrective operation.

The MQM wants early elections for many reasons. The most urgent, and a recent one, is the developing situation in London where the Dr Imran Farooq case has taken a sudden and surprising turn with the raid on the MQM headquarters following Scotland Yard’s decision to include the top MQM leadership in the probe. Gathering evidence, staying there for almost 48 hours, questioning top leaders and the possibility that even homes may be visited or restrictions imposed on travel outside Britain has added a sense of mystery and possibly a looming threat. The uncertainty caused back home is even greater and since there is no announced chain of command in MQM (the next best option to Altaf Hussain being the Rabita Committee and no clear picture as to who controls it) fears can quickly grow that MQM may split if Mr Hussain somehow gets entangled in the London probe.

The proud claim of the MQM leader, that his party has no family hierarchy and no next of kin to take over the reins, can ultimately prove damaging, as a good policy has not been followed up with the logical next step of putting up a chain of command elected by the party in Karachi. Naming an interim party head even now could prevent some bitter infighting in case of an emergency. The party thus badly needs an election so that all energies get focused on winning seats and this needs to happen before any charges are framed in London against its leaders, if at all. The Supreme Court has, however, put cold water on its plans and thus the recent outbursts against the judiciary were heard in much more shrieking tones, something that resurrected memories of May 12, 2007. The only difference this time is that there is no dictator in Islamabad to provide protection, muscle and back up to the hard talk. The ultimate result may thus be that PPP may ask for a better price, more concessions on the local bodies issue and a more dominant role vis-à-vis the MQM, if the PPP-MQM alliance has to last. The reality is that MQM now needs the PPP more than the other way around.

The PPP is laughing and secretly enjoying the verdict of the Supreme Court as it puts the MQM on the mat. After having denied the MQM for four years the right to run Karachi and Hyderabad, through the local bodies system, the PPP could now go for a kill by ordering the military-led verification operation, wishing that MQM would be cut to size. This will also help the PPP leadership to pursue a deeply thought out strategy to delay the elections for as long as possible, even for a year if that can be politically achievable, so that the president stays in his office and runs the affairs of the state like he has been doing as the supreme executive of the country, notwithstanding the fact that the prime minister is the chief executive under the Constitution. Senior PPP leaders have talked about this strategy, publicly, but no one has yet mentioned the highly unlikely prospect that the president could achieve his strong wish to get re-elected for a second term by the same assemblies.

Since many seats are vacant following the dual nationality ban, and by-elections cannot be held now, these seats will remain vacant and it is for experts and lawyers to determine whether a house with so many empty seats can function as the electoral college of the president. But the president has to stay in his office even after the assemblies get dissolved and until a new elected president takes oath, which gives Mr Zardari a fairly long extra time to remain immune from any cases that may be waiting for him to be tried. A prolongation of his term, whether by delaying the elections or by any other means, is one of the prime objectives of the PPP. The SC judgment to re-visit the electoral rolls in Karachi helps in that goal immensely. Whether he becomes a lame-duck is a different matter.

Another part of the PPP strategy is to delay matters for so long that the criminal probe into Dr Farooq’s murder reaches some conclusion. If MQM faces any damage or if it does not, the PPP would devise its own strategy accordingly but delaying matters is a first welcome step. In the meantime PPP would be trying hard to appease all shades of its vote bank by doling out government funds, hurrying with projects, appointing people in state-owned organisations en masse and rebuilding its image of a dysfunctional and corrupt government. After almost five years of non-performance, the rest of the period has to be used on an emergency basis and any extra time is more than welcome.

The most important factor to delay elections at least for a year is the crucial period later in 2013 when Army Chief General Kayani and Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry retire from their offices. Mr Zardari will still be in his post, even if his term ends as he has to be there by law, but it all depends on whether the caretaker or the elected government lets him play any role or whether he is confined to the presidency like Chaudhry Fazal Elahi was in ZA Bhutto’s premiership. The Constitution gives far more powers to the PM than the president now, but since Mr Zardari is a headstrong politician and his PMs have been handpicked, he has ruled the roost with a team of colleagues who were inducted as leaders, senators and MNAs. Likewise, the Sindhi nationalists have created another reason for the PPP to seek a delay as they have gained strength and the recent Nawabshah by-election, the heart of Zardari’s electoral forte, saw a tough fight between the PPP and the nationalists-backed NPP.

For the PML-N, a delay in elections could be welcome as well since the Sharif clan is in control of the largest province, the biggest share of resources and tax payers’ money and has launched expensive show piece projects which need to be completed before the party leaves office for a caretaker. An added benefit is that the serious challenger to the party in the Punjab, the Tehrik Insaf of Imran Khan is getting mired into too many of its own problems that its glitter is fading slowly, to some extent. The more he stays in that fluid situation of a party waiting for elections but with no date for the polls in the near and medium term, his party would find it hard to keep its momentum going. That benefits the PML-N.

A key factor in keeping the PML-N still a viable and potent option has been the number of by-elections in which Imran Khan was caught in a no-win situation as he could not contest the polls, the winning candidates of these areas who joined him were stuck and had to leave their constituencies to others and in the process many non-PTI politicians either retained their seats or new leaders were elected. In electoral politics staying away is the worst option which Imran has been forced to adopt and for a long time. This has again benefited the PML-N. But one redeeming factor now is that no more by-elections will be held, so this downslide may stop for the PTI.

The PML-N is not in a mood or in a position to support the wish of President Zardari to get re-elected by the same assemblies. Mian Nawaz Sharif has a strong and a potent card in his pocket of dissolving the Punjab Assembly at 48 hours notice thus dismantling the electoral college of the president in a matter of hours, if ever Mr Zardari tried to force this strategy seriously. For Imran Khan the delay in holding elections is again a God-given respite and a breathing space to put his own house in order. He has, some say rather prematurely, embarked on an exercise of holding elections within his party and that process, although very welcome and a positive sign, has created a mess inside with party leaders, old and new, young and the traditional, fighting it out to win the party positions. This process needs time to be completed throughout the country and any delay in the polls helps Imran to rush through with his reorganization process. He would like as much delay as is possible until he has an elected structure in place and all those who are unhappy and have lost have either accepted the new reality or moved out to join others.

This clean up will help Imran but it needs time and if elections are forced while the intra-party restructuring is still in progress, Imran will be left with a half-cooked broth. How he manages then will have to be seen. In short he would love a delay in polls for his own reasons. The other fringe parties like the JUI of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, ANP of Asfandyar Wali Khan and others have reconciled to the fact that they will stay in their given constituencies and may even have to fight hard to retain them. They would welcome a delay for more time to recoup the losses but any long delay also gives time to their opponents to challenge them more vigorously. They would not mind an election on time or later. But they would like a set up like the one created by Mr Zardari so that they get their share in the benefits and someone else takes the blame. The three institutions, who would like this political set up to ease out as early as possible and not a day after its term expires, but would not like a similar set up in 60 or 90 days through another similar election, since the mess they are going to leave behind will be monumental, are the Pakistan Army, the bureaucracy and the superior judiciary.

The establishment is of course tacitly backed by the religious right, the closet militants (Lashkars etc), people like Allama Tahir ul Qadri who demonstrates a huge following at his rallies and scattered elements of the defunct MMA. These forces have no position on the elections so far. These institutions have to first count the dead horses, the dying chicken and the looted billions stacked abroad, besides the numerous deals struck with foreigners on the basis of official guarantees, to first find out in how disfigured the Federation or the Union has been abandoned. This task can only be done by an independent caretaker set up free from the negative influence of the present rulers, both in the centre and in provinces. If the interim PM refuses to do that, there would hardly be any opportunity in future to find out. So the extent of the damages must be calculated to start rebuilding again. It would need a strong and independent interim PM who should be given the time he needs. His team should be fearless, competent, honest, determined and committed.

But the army and the Supreme Court do not have unlimited time at their disposal. Both the army chief and chief justice retire in less than a year and if things have to be fixed, or at least the free fall of the economy has to be stopped and some rebuilding has to be started, they only have a few months. If these months are also lost in holding elections and then inducting a similar good-for-nothing political coalition of corrupt governments and friendly oppositions, without any accountability, hopes for picking up the pieces would be dashed. Can the country afford such a scenario? So, for these institutions and for the few good and honest politicians and technocrats who would like to help rebuild the economy and the country, a delay in the elections would be welcome. If the SC orders to verify each voter in Karachi and the induction of Pakistan Army in the process is seen in that context, it would make much better sense and seem logical. The fact, which everyone knows is that once started, this operation could turn lethal in many ways.

If multiple votes have been registered at one address and all those persons with their ID cards are not present, the votes could be canceled. If they are present and are somehow involved in any other illegal business, they would not show up for fear of getting noticed or arrested. If the army and the authorities decide that such a massive exercise to go to two million households and check six million voters will also provide them a golden chance to check every house for weapons, then things could become more complex and dirty. There can thus be many implications of the SC order and Karachi, it can be safely said, will not settle down any time soon for a peaceful election. There may be many other parties and institutions that could get the opportunity to settle their old scores with different mafias and groups operating there for years. Some political circles are even talking of elections in Punjab and KPK for the provincial assemblies, as there is no constitutional bar to hold PA elections before the NA, once the terms expire. Balochistan is almost a no man’s land for politicians and if elections are ordered they would, as usual and as expected, be monitored and controlled by those who have been doing it in the past.

The politicians, unfortunately, have failed to bring a genuine reconciliation to the province and have thus lost their chance to take things in their control. It still has to be governed by the establishment and the agencies. If considered appropriate polls may then be held in Balochistan as well thus completing an exercise in three provinces. Sindh could then be handled separately. This is just a political scenario pushed by some weird analysts but it is one of the options, howsoever remote it may look.

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