The Afghan conundrum
By Shahid Javed Burki

With the elections over, Pakistan’s new leaders will be confronted with a number of serious but also interconnected problems. Going by the statements made by Mian Nawaz Sharif, economic revival will be on the top of his must-do list. But the ability of his government to rebuild the shattered economic edifice will depend upon a number of factors. Among them is what happens in the countries in Pakistan’s immediate neighbourhood. Pakistan is surrounded on all sides by countries involved in some kind of political transition. Some of this will depend upon the elections to be held in the next one year, starting with those in Iran followed by those in India and Afghanistan in 2014. China, Pakistan’s fourth neighbour, has a new administration in the process of settling down. As has been the case with Pakistan’s 2013 elections, political developments in these four countries will be equally transformational. I will begin today with Afghanistan.
Judging from some of the recent developments, it appears that Pakistan’s northern neighbour may be in a state of almost total chaos once the Americans end their operational role in December 2014. That said, the latest American commander in the country is sanguine about the future. In a meeting with the American press, he raised a number of questions: will the Afghan troops be able to assume full responsibility for military operations? Will they be able to assume the lead responsibility for military operations? Will they be able to give security to the Afghan people before the presidential elections scheduled for next April? And, will international troops be able to transfer all authority to the Afghan troops at the end of 2014, when the International Security Assistance mission ends?
“The answer is yes to all these questions,” said General Joseph F Dunford Jr in his recent meeting with the press. However, the Taliban will make every effort “to create the perception of insecurity”, the general continued, but the fighting this year will be a turning point: “I think the Taliban are going to run into a brick wall — and that brick is not going to be the coalition, it’s going to be the Afghan security forces.” This highly optimistic reading of the Afghan situation may turn out to be incorrect.
General Dunford’s optimism notwithstanding, many American analysts are losing the confidence that the Afghan Army will be able to hold the Taliban at bay or keep the natural centrifugal forces in check so that the country remains united. There are also questions about the quality of civilian leadership on offer. The revelation that President Hamid Karzai was paid large sums of money by the CIA, which he shared with some of his close political associates, has further eroded the belief that a governing elite has been prepared that will take over the country with competence once the Americans and their allies have left the scene. According to one analyst, the CIA payments “effectively undercuts a pillar of the US war strategy: the building of a clean and credible Afghan government that would wean popular support for the Taliban. Instead, corruption at the highest levels seems to have only worsened.”
If Afghanistan survives in a reasonable shape when the American departure begins and the country begins to see the end of the conflict that has gone on for a quarter century, the impact on the Pakistani economy will be significant. Already, the country has become one of Pakistan’s largest trading partners. There were other types of flows into Pakistan related to the Nato military operations in Afghanistan. During the time of the heavy American military activity in Afghanistan, Pakistan received an estimated $10 billion as compensation for the services it provided to the foreign troops operating across the border. The Americans are reported to have spent $60 billion in Afghanistan in the 12-year period since 2001. Some of this has ‘leaked’ into Pakistan in several forms, including investments in real estate in the cities the Afghans find attractive on the other side of the border.
Another windfall income may be headed Pakistan’s way. The Economist estimates that for 18 months between the summer of 2013 and the end of 2014, Pakistan will be the beneficiary of the largest operation of logistics ever in military history when “America expects to remove as many as 28,000 vehicles and 40,000 shipping containers of equipment. Shifting that much kit, with an estimated value of $30 billion is daunting enough … [it] may cost as much as $6 billion and involve about 29,000 personnel for the American part alone. The job is unprecedented in complexity.”
Much of this material will flow through Pakistan and move out of the port of Karachi. The trick for Pakistan will be to charge appropriately for the services to be provided but also to prepare for the time when this operation will be done. Not only will Pakistan see a significant drop in foreign exchange earnings once the American withdrawal has been completed, it will also have to find alternative sources of employment for the tens of thousands of its people who will be engaged in this enterprise. In other words, Pakistan must carefully study the evolving situation across its northern border. What kind of country will the Americans leave behind in Afghanistan and how will that country impacts Pakistan are the questions for next week.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 27th, 2013.