When Barack Obama unveiled his plans for a ‘strategic pivot to Asia’, many security analysts were quick to downplay the rising threat of China in the Asian Pacific region. However, events over the last few months have signalled rising tensions in the region. Things became even more precarious when China initiated an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Seas, prompting South Korea, Japan and the US to criticise the move. As China’s economic prowess grows, it is beginning to flex its muscles in and around its neighbourhood, thereby making smaller neighbours nervous about the country’s intentions.

Japan and China have had icy relations that stretch back decades — memories of Imperial Japan’s brutal occupation of Manchuria are fresh in the minds of most Chinese. Sensing the rising tensions, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, recently said that relations between the two nations were similar to those between Germany and Britain prior to the First World War. In essence, the Japanese prime minister was alluding to the fact that China, like Germany, is an emerging power that is challenging the current balance of power in the region. Much like Britain, Japan is tied to the Chinese mainland through trade and investment ties. To combat this rising power, Japan is reinvesting in its military and pushing forward a reinterpretation of its Constitution that would allow Japanese military forces greater freedom to respond to attacks on allies.

A recent survey conducted by Pew Research said that just one in 20 Japanese “have a favourable attitude toward China” and “anti-Japan sentiment is quite strong in China, where 90 per cent of the public has an unfavourable opinion of Japan”. Furthermore, the recent visit by Abe to a shrine honouring war criminals from the Second World War has further angered the Chinese.

China, recognising that its neighbours are increasingly nervous, has gone on a charm offensive. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang separately visited five Southeast Asian nations recently for broad bilateral talks. These diplomatic maneuvers showcase that China is aware of its waning popularity in the region. Neighbours are increasingly relying on economic ties with China for their growth, prompting them to pursue closer relations with China despite being nervous about its increasing power. Smaller nations have calculated that the US would check growing Chinese military power — this has not played out as expected, as the US administration deals with an increasingly uncooperative legislature.

As tensions continue to mount, chances of miscalculations that could lead to deaths on either side are increasing. The US has tried to assuage the fears of its allies in the region, but Obama’s credibility has suffered tremendously after the ill-conceived ‘red-line’ that he failed to act upon when Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons on his own people. A weaker US is giving room to a more assertive China. With fighter jets scrambling over the ADIZ on a daily basis, it would take only one mistake to move this from a confrontation to a conflict.

The implications for the global economy will be severe from such a miscalculation. The year 2014 is being touted as the breakout year for the struggling economies of the developed world, led by the US. A conflict in East Asia, even if it is limited in nature, could spook investors and lead to a rout in financial markets. This would hurt not only the US and Europe, but also China, as businesses would eventually cut back on investments they are making in the country. For a global economy that has floundered to find its feet since 2007, a direct confrontation between China, Japan and the US would be anathema.

Chinese power is set to grow in the coming years and with this rising power, the country will begin to assert itself in the world. Whether China becomes part of the current international security framework or tries to radically alter the balance of power dynamics remains to be seen. To ensure that growing Chinese power is accommodated in a peaceful manner, it is vital that efforts are made by the international community to promote dialogue between China and its neighbours. Without dialogue, rising Chinese power will lead to conflict.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 1st, 2014.

The East Asian region is on the boil with two global economic powers, China and Japan, faced with an alarming spat over the Senkaku-Diaoyu dispute — the abandoned isles in the East China Sea. Tensions spiked last November when China declared an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, covering vast air space much to the chagrin of Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the Japanese premier’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine to pay homage to the Japanese war dead and war convicts brought a strong reaction from both China and South Korea. This move was construed as tantamount to extolling Japan’s past militarism.

The Chinese ADIZ has upped the ante and is a test for the US. The disputed islands fall under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which in the case of any untoward event, requires the US to defend Japan. Historically, the islands did not belong to any country till their occupation by Japan in 1895 in the wake of the Sino-Japanese war. Archival evidence, however, suggests that the Chinese had sovereignty over these islands prior to that war. China is of the view that the islands should have been returned to it after the Second World War. Instead, their control passed on to the US authorities based in Okinawa. In 1972, this control was transferred to Japan without resolving the issue of sovereignty.

The row can be seen to be the prism through which the two regional powers are looking into their past, which has not been a very pleasant one. They are also looking into future, which promises them a bigger and a far more strident role in the region. With China emerging as a major power, the US-led order in East Asia is under stress. China is going to overtake the US in the coming years in many respects. In Japan, questions are being raised about pacifist clauses in the country’s Constitution, which renounces the country’s sovereign right to arm itself, with only a self-defence force allowed to be maintained. Security needs are mainly met through the treaty arrangement with the US. The current nationalist Japanese government is wishing to adopt a more strident approach and the sparring with China should be seen in that context.

The fallout is spilling over to the proximate regions as well. The South China Sea is rife with territorial disputes. Very recently, the local government of the southern Hainan province in China imposed restrictions on foreign fishing vessels by making it mandatory for them to seek prior permission before entering waters claimed by China. This development has caused disquiet in other countries in the region, which have counterclaims on these waters and they are fearing this move to be a harbinger of another ADIZ in the South China Sea.

In another significant development, Japan is closing ranks with India, which has had border issues with China. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the first Japanese leader to have been the chief guest at the Republic Day parade in Delhi on January 26. The event was laced with symbolic connotations. There was a high profile display of weaponry and military prowess before a leader of a country whose Constitution renounces the use of force. India has extended to Japan an invitation to join its naval exercises alongside the US in the Indian Ocean, while Japan has shown interest in ramping up the export of nuclear technology to India. This will signal a shift in Tokyo’s policy on a highly sensitive issue as so far, it had been reluctant to sell nuclear technology to India because of that country’s refusal to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

These events allude to the fact that the focus in the years to come will shift from the West to East Asia in many ways. As regards the stand-off in the East China Sea, one only hopes that the parties succeed in evolving a workable agreement. The situation should be of keen interest for Pakistan as China has been our all-weather friend during times of adversity, while at the same time, we also need to remember that when we were under US sanctions, Japan had been our largest donor in terms of providing economic assistance.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 4th, 2014.