Saleem Safi

After the decision of the resumption of Nato supplies through Pakistan, now is the proper time to revisit the whole episode, and try to learn from it. The decision for reopening supply routes was taken by the defence committee of the cabinet, which means that it was made by both the civilian and military leadership. The reason for this decision was that Pakistan did not wish to fight US nor could it. There are some who say, and perhaps with some justification, that the issue of the supply routes was not specific to the US; rather it was a matter of foreign relations with 48 countries. It is also being said, which is fully justified, that we are giving sacrifices on the Afghan front for the last ten years, and now at this decisive moment we need to work with the international community for a peaceful exit of the foreign forces.
This decision and all the reasons being presented for it might be valid. But there are two important questions that need to be asked. Firstly, if all these reasons were true, why was the decision for a blockade made in the first place? Secondly, is there any guarantee that our decision-makers will not take such a blind risk again in the future?
At that time, some sections claimed that if we blocked the Nato supply only for one week, the US would not be able to survive. Now, do we have those forces identified and would we avoid them in the future? As mentioned earlier the decision for a blockade was abrupt. It was based on emotions and ended in disaster due to the non-coordination; rather, the mutual rivalry of the civil and military leaderships.
Today, the explanation that is presented regarding the decision to reopen the Nato routes is so as not to miss the opportunity to play a role in the formation of the future of Afghanistan. However, the fact is that we have already missed this opportunity with our absence from the Bonn Conference. Before the Salala incident, the US wished to engage the Taliban in dialogue through Pakistan. But in this era of tension, the US established direct links with them and initiated the Qatar process. Pakistan was faced with the dilemma of cooperation with the US in this regard. On the one hand, it resisted over the Salala incident, and on the other it helped the US to establish direct contacts with the Taliban. Now with the reopening of the supply routes, Pakistan has already enraged the Afghan Taliban. This opportunity may be utilised by the US to create misunderstandings between Pakistan and the Taliban.
Pakistan played a very bad hand during the blockade of the Nato routes. And thus was unable to establish strong links and form an understanding with the Afghan Taliban. The biggest barrier in these relations was indeed Pakistan’s support to the US. Pakistan could have used this opportunity to get closer to the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. However, even though we let this opportunity go to waste, the US didn’t. On the one hand it established direct links with the Taliban, on the other it instigated India and other anti-Pakistan factions in Afghanistan. And now after the reopening of the Nato supply routes, the Pakistani Taliban have announced their decision to carry out attacks against the Pakistani state, and it is feared that they will be supported by the anti-Pakistan factions in Afghanistan.
Blocking Nato supply routes proved disastrous for Pakistan, but not for President Karzai. Before the Salala incident, the relations between US and Hamid Karzai were strained. However, this did not last long, for when Pakistan blocked the supply routes, the US extended concessions to Hamid Karzai that had been previously denied. In acknowledgment to this favour, Hamid Karzai signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement with the US under which it can now stay in the region for one more decade, with less dependence on Pakistan. And now, after signing this agreement, the US is in no hurry to send back its ammunition, although the reopening of the Nato supply route was a major concern for other Nato members stationed in Afghanistan, who want to leave before 2014.
Also drone attacks were initiated in Pakistan, whether by the permission or at least full understanding of the Pakistani government. Having said that it must also be said that our establishment had for quite some time insisted that these attacks be stopped, or at least the technology at the operative level, be transferred to Pakistan. This was also presented as a condition for reopening the Nato routes. But even after the routes were opened, Pakistan did not gain anything in this regard and as a result, Pakistan has further weakened its position not only internationally but in the media and in front of its immediate neighbours.
The western media initiated a propaganda war against Pakistan to mount pressure. The echoes of all these issues and non-issues will resonate in the coming few months.
On the diplomatic front, Pakistan asked Iran, Russia and China to pressurise the US. The decision for reopening the Nato supply routes has only helped create a trust deficit with these nations. In the future if Pakistan tries to come closer to Russia and China, these countries will not take it seriously. Meanwhile, the US seems undeterred and continues to smile at India, putting more pressure on Pakistan.
There is however one positive aspect which has come out of this whole episode. Before the blockage of the Nato routes, the US and other intelligence operatives and security contractors used to boldly walk on our streets as one walks in a public park. Now with clear conditions set for their operations in Pakistan, one can hope that in the future they will not tread our streets in the same fashion.
The writer works for Geo TV. Email: saleem. safi@janggroup.com.pk